Firm Capital Property (FCD.UN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$221.55M
• Dividend Yield: 8.65%
• Average Volume (3M): 16.27K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.24
• Revenue Growth: 2.69%
• EPS Growth: -45.80%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.34
• Shares Outstanding: 36,925,682
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 17,552
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 16,271
• PEG Ratio: -0.36
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.72
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.62
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.79
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$13.00
• Price Target Upside: 116.67% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: C$6.50 ▲(8.33% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/12/26

The score is primarily supported by attractive valuation (low P/E and high yield), but is moderated by variable earnings and cash flow and a moderately levered balance sheet. Technicals are mixed, with weaker near-term price action and muted momentum.

Positive Factors

Diversified rental portfolio

A diversified mix of commercial and multi-residential assets provides multiple rental income streams and reduces single-market concentration risk. Contractual rents and tenant recoveries support predictable cash flow and make distributable income less reliant on any single property or sector over the medium term.

Consistent revenue growth

Sustained revenue expansion, including mid‑teens growth in 2025, indicates successful portfolio growth, leasing momentum, or rent uplifts. Durable top-line growth increases operating leverage, supports coverage of fixed costs and interest, and underpins longer-term distributable cash flow and reinvestment capacity.

Healthy margins and profitability recovery

Robust gross and operating margins and a recovery to solid profits after a downturn show the business can sustain cash generation from operations. Stable margins provide a buffer against cost inflation and support reinvestment, maintenance capex, and potential distribution stability over time.

Negative Factors

Moderate leverage

A debt-to-equity around 1.0 is typical for REITs but leaves limited financial flexibility. If interest rates rise or refinancing needs emerge, leverage can amplify cash flow pressure, constrain acquisition ability, and increase refinancing risk, affecting long-term capital allocation choices.

Uneven cash generation

Intermittent drops in operating cash flow and historical free-cash-flow deficits indicate sensitivity to capex, leasing timing, and working capital. This volatility undermines reliability of distributable cash and may force external financing or dividend cuts during weaker cash periods.

Earnings volatility

Material year-to-year swings in net income suggest exposure to one-offs, valuation changes, or timing differences in gains/losses. Persistent earnings volatility complicates forecasting and weakens confidence in recurring distributable earnings, challenging payout consistency and strategic planning.

Firm Capital Property Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Firm Capital Property Trust is focused on creating long-term value for Unitholders, through capital preservation and disciplined investing to achieve stable distributable income. In partnership with management and industry leaders, The Trust's plan is to own as well as to co-own a diversified property portfolio of multi-residential, flex industrial, net lease convenience retail, and core service provider professional space. In addition to stand alone accretive acquisitions, the Trust will make joint acquisitions with strong financial partners and acquisitions of partial interests from existing ownership groups, in a manner that provides liquidity to those selling owners and professional management for those remaining as partners. Firm Capital Realty Partners Inc., through a structure focused on an alignment of interests with the Trust sources, syndicates and property and asset manages investments on behalf of the Trust.

How the Company Makes Money

Firm Capital Property Trust primarily makes money by earning rental and related property income from its real estate portfolio. Its core revenue stream is contractual rent paid by tenants under lease agreements, typically across commercial (e.g., retail/industrial/office, depending on the portfolio at a given time) and multi-residential properties; this can also include recoveries/reimbursements where tenants pay for a share of property operating costs (such as common area maintenance, property taxes, and utilities) when lease structures allow. The trust’s earnings are influenced by occupancy levels, leasing spreads (rent increases on renewals/new leases), and the ability to control or recover operating expenses. In addition to net rental income, the trust can generate value through active asset management—such as renovations, repositioning, and capital improvements that support higher rents and/or occupancy—and through acquisitions and dispositions of properties, which may result in realized gains on sale when assets are sold above their carrying value. Financing strategy also affects profitability: the REIT uses mortgage and other debt to fund acquisitions and capital projects, and the spread between property-level returns and borrowing costs (after expenses) contributes to distributable cash flow. Significant partnerships or specific counterparties are null.

Firm Capital Property Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid revenue growth and generally strong profitability, but the score is held back by volatility in earnings and uneven cash generation, including periods of negative free cash flow. Balance sheet leverage is moderate (debt roughly in line with equity), which adds risk if financing conditions worsen.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily over the last several years (with another mid-teens increase in 2025), showing continued portfolio expansion and rent/NOI resilience. Profitability is generally strong with healthy gross and operating margins, and the company returned to solid profitability after the 2022 loss. However, earnings are volatile year-to-year (notably the 2021 spike and 2022 loss, followed by a 2024 peak and a 2025 pullback), which is a key watch item for consistency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is moderately levered for a diversified REIT: debt is roughly in line with equity (debt-to-equity around ~1.0 recently), which can enhance returns but reduces flexibility if rates or property values move against the company. Equity has been relatively stable and returns on equity improved materially from 2022, but have eased versus 2024 levels. Overall financial position looks workable, though leverage remains a clear risk factor.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is positive across the period, but cash generation has been uneven, with a sharp drop in 2025 versus 2024 and a large free-cash-flow deficit in 2022 (and negative free cash flow again in 2021). Free cash flow in 2025 roughly matched net income, which is a positive quality signal for that year, but the trend in free cash flow growth is weak and volatility suggests ongoing sensitivity to capital spending and working-capital swings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Mar 2025	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	61.77M	61.86M	60.58M	58.09M	54.02M	46.43M
Gross Profit	35.21M	33.60M	35.19M	37.30M	35.46M	30.22M
EBITDA	33.28M	40.42M	47.67M	29.28M	30.66M	66.76M
Net Income	18.94M	25.72M	33.89M	15.37M	-22.00M	58.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	637.04M	645.31M	651.95M	637.38M	633.90M	576.36M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.88M	5.69M	9.18M	8.33M	4.99M	5.90M
Total Debt	318.71M	319.39M	332.67M	335.29M	325.73M	264.97M
Total Liabilities	331.88M	332.41M	345.57M	345.69M	337.38M	280.44M
Stockholders Equity	305.16M	312.90M	306.38M	291.69M	296.51M	295.92M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	27.68M	19.02M	29.70M	22.66M	-55.31M	-47.05M
Operating Cash Flow	32.74M	19.02M	34.42M	28.92M	29.97M	26.60M
Investing Cash Flow	15.01M	9.90M	1.96M	-561.66K	-80.71M	-47.83M
Financing Cash Flow	-49.18M	-32.44M	-35.53M	-25.01M	49.83M	21.44M

Firm Capital Property Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FCD.UN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.08, below the 50-day MA of 6.05, and above the 200-day MA of 5.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:FCD.UN.

Firm Capital Property Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BTB.UN	78 Outperform	C$336.30M	16.24	4.52%	7.37%	0.92%	92.93%
NET.UN	69 Neutral	C$126.26M	9.87	10.01%	6.15%	3.20%	39.37%
FCD.UN	66 Neutral	C$221.55M	8.72	6.20%	8.65%	2.69%	-45.80%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
HR.UN	53 Neutral	C$2.69B	-3.39	-8.74%	7.05%	-0.83%	-56.21%
MRT.UN	49 Neutral	C$434.91M	-25.11	-1.91%	3.85%	-5.37%	13.86%
MPCT.UN	47 Neutral	C$32.33M	-0.29	-9.99%	―	-25.69%	0.12%

Firm Capital Property Corporate Events

Firm Capital Property Trust Posts Stable Q4 Results and Expands Credit Capacity

Firm Capital Property Trust reported steady operating performance for the fourth quarter of 2025, with net operating income roughly flat year over year and commercial and residential occupancies holding in the low-90% range, while manufactured home communities remained almost fully leased. The trust emphasized tenant diversification, with no single tenant contributing more than 12.9% of net rent and large national brands making up nearly a third of the rent roll.

Financially, net income more than doubled to $12.5 million in Q4 due largely to fair value impacts, while AFFO rose 2% and the AFFO payout ratio improved to 98%, supporting an unchanged monthly distribution. The trust strengthened its balance sheet and liquidity by refinancing a 50%-owned Edmonton mortgage for $18.4 million at a 4.15% fixed rate and extending and upsizing its revolving credit facility to $35 million, maintaining leverage at 50% of gross book value and a net asset value of $8.00 per unit.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:FCD.UN) stock is a Buy with a C$13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firm Capital Property stock, see the TSE:FCD.UN Stock Forecast page.