Chartwell Retirement Residences (CSH.UN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$6.28B
• Dividend Yield: 3%
• Average Volume (3M): 417.05K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 200.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.63
• Revenue Growth: 28.05%
• EPS Growth: 662.10%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 13,070
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Healthcare Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 316,627,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 334,138
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 417,052
• PEG Ratio: 12.31
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.45
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.32
• P/FCF Ratio: 40.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$25.33
• Price Target Upside: 29.12% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.3
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$1.31B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: C$21.00 ▲(7.03% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/03/26

The score is supported by improving operating cash generation and strong earnings-call momentum (FFO, NOI, and occupancy gains with constructive multi-year targets). Technicals also reinforce a positive trend. The main constraints are very high P/E valuation and lingering profitability/leverage concerns, including unstable net margins and higher financing costs.

Positive Factors

FFO and cash generation

Substantial FFO and operating cash growth signal durable cash-generation capacity. Strong FFO provides recurring distributable cash, funds M&A and capex, and supports deleveraging or distribution policy over the next 2–6 months without relying on one-off items.

NOI and occupancy momentum

Material same-property NOI and per-suite gains reflect pricing power and demand resilience. Rising occupancy and higher NOI per suite create sustainable operating leverage that supports medium-term margin expansion and strengthens revenue visibility.

Liquidity and capital execution

Healthy liquidity, undrawn capacity and a growing unencumbered asset base enable refinancing flexibility and disciplined deployment. Recent ATM raises and >$1.7B of acquisitions show the firm can access capital and execute strategic portfolio growth.

Negative Factors

High absolute leverage

Meaningful absolute debt and elevated leverage limit financial flexibility and increase refinancing risk. Even with improving ratios, the balance sheet remains exposed to higher rates and near-term maturities, constraining capital allocation choices.

Unstable net profitability

Despite strong operating EBITDA, volatile net margins and a negative gross margin indicate earnings-quality issues or elevated direct costs. Poor bottom-line consistency undermines retained earnings, ROE and the sustainability of distributions over the medium term.

Incentives and rising costs

A high incentive run-rate and higher finance/G&A costs temper blended rent growth and compress near-term margins. Combined with competitive cap-rate pressure, these structural cost and pricing headwinds make margin recovery and accretive acquisitions more challenging.

Chartwell Retirement Residences Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Chartwell is an unincorporated, open-ended real estate trust which indirectly owns and operates a complete range of seniors housing communities, from independent supportive living through assisted living to long term care. It is the largest operator in the Canadian seniors living sector with over 200 quality retirement communities in four provinces including properties under development. Chartwell is committed to its vision of Making People's Lives BETTER and to providing a happier, healthier and more fulfilling life experience for its residents.

How the Company Makes Money

Chartwell primarily makes money by generating recurring revenue from operating retirement residences it owns and/or manages. The core revenue stream is resident fees (monthly rents and service fees) paid for suites/units and hospitality-style services such as meals, housekeeping, and access to amenities and programming. A second major revenue stream comes from care and support services provided within its communities (e.g., assisted living and other add-on personal support services), where residents pay additional charges based on their chosen service packages and care levels. Revenue is also influenced by occupancy rates, suite/unit mix, and pricing (rate increases and service package upsells). As a REIT, Chartwell’s earnings are ultimately driven by net operating income from the residence portfolio after operating expenses (labour, food, utilities, maintenance, marketing) and are affected by broader factors such as wage and food-cost inflation, interest rates (financing costs), and the supply/demand dynamics for seniors housing. Information on any specific material third-party partnerships or government funding arrangements for Chartwell is null.

Chartwell Retirement Residences Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating profile is improving with accelerating revenue growth (~6.3% in 2025), expanding EBITDA margin (~40%), and materially stronger operating cash flow (~$294M in 2025). Offsetting this, net profitability has been weak and unstable (net margin ~2.6% in 2024–2025 and an unusual negative gross margin in 2025), and leverage remains meaningful despite improvement (debt-to-equity ~1.75x; debt still ~ $3.0B).

Income Statement

Revenue growth accelerated over time (from low-single-digit growth in 2022–2023 to ~6.3% in 2025), and operating profitability looks resilient with EBITDA margin expanding to ~40% in 2025. However, bottom-line profitability is inconsistent: net margin fell sharply from 2023 (~17%) to ~2.6% in 2024–2025, and 2025 shows a negative gross margin, suggesting elevated direct costs and/or mixed accounting effects. Overall, the business is growing with solid operating leverage, but earnings quality and margin stability are a key watch item.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains meaningful for the business: debt-to-equity improved to ~1.75x in 2025 from ~2.4–3.4x in prior years, but absolute debt is still high (~$3.0B in 2025). Equity has increased substantially versus earlier years, which helps reduce balance-sheet risk, yet returns on equity are currently low (~1.7% in 2025), reflecting muted net income relative to the capital base. Overall, balance-sheet direction is improving, but leverage and low current returns constrain the score.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow strengthened materially (to ~$294M in 2025 from ~$201M in 2024 and ~$157M in 2023), and free cash flow is solid in dollars (~$144M in 2025). That said, free cash flow declined year over year in 2025 (about -11%), and several cash-flow quality ratios are missing/zeroed in 2025, limiting transparency versus prior years where cash conversion metrics were more informative. Overall, cash generation is a clear strength, but recent free-cash-flow momentum and data consistency are the main drawbacks.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.11B	861.61M	736.74M	704.68M	669.36M
Gross Profit	-36.05M	352.43M	273.38M	239.98M	245.47M
EBITDA	446.54M	289.98M	198.47M	193.59M	189.99M
Net Income	29.41M	22.41M	128.27M	49.53M	10.13M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.06B	4.09B	3.23B	3.51B	3.42B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	109.13M	20.05M	24.62M	28.47M	95.49M
Total Debt	2.99B	2.60B	2.03B	2.34B	2.35B
Total Liabilities	3.35B	3.01B	2.44B	2.74B	2.59B
Stockholders Equity	1.71B	1.07B	791.46M	769.80M	826.11M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	143.98M	93.58M	28.18M	26.35M	40.98M
Operating Cash Flow	294.03M	200.85M	157.43M	137.71M	156.32M
Investing Cash Flow	-876.84M	-652.99M	78.94M	-165.61M	-36.49M
Financing Cash Flow	671.90M	447.57M	-240.21M	-39.11M	-94.51M

Chartwell Retirement Residences Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 19.62
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CSH.UN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 19.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.45, below the 50-day MA of 21.18, and above the 200-day MA of 19.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CSH.UN.

Chartwell Retirement Residences Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BEI.UN	66 Neutral	C$3.30B	16.05	3.97%	2.46%	6.52%	-54.45%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
CSH.UN	64 Neutral	C$6.28B	200.42	1.99%	3.00%	28.05%	662.10%
CAR.UN	62 Neutral	C$5.47B	29.80	0.65%	4.20%	-6.51%	-81.28%
KMP.UN	61 Neutral	C$1.92B	69.28	0.93%	4.42%	6.19%	79.98%
IIP.UN	60 Neutral	C$1.86B	27.54	0.81%	3.01%	1.55%	-401.05%
MI.UN	60 Neutral	C$637.78M	-3.53	7.26%	3.87%	-1.21%	―

Chartwell Retirement Residences Corporate Events

Chartwell Declares March 2026 Distribution and Updates Occupancy Trends

Chartwell Retirement Residences has declared a cash distribution of $0.052 per trust unit for March 2026, payable on April 15 to unitholders of record as of March 31. The company is also reminding investors of its Distribution Reinvestment Plan, which allows participants to reinvest monthly distributions into additional units and receive a 3% bonus in units without paying commission or brokerage fees.

Chartwell provided an update on same property occupancy, outlining historical monthly weighted average occupancy from late 2024 through February 2026 and offering forecasts for March and April 2026. These metrics, together with the maintained distribution and DRIP incentives, underscore Chartwell’s focus on stabilizing occupancy and supporting unitholder returns in its Canadian seniors housing portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:CSH.UN) stock is a Buy with a C$24.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chartwell Retirement Residences stock, see the TSE:CSH.UN Stock Forecast page.

Chartwell Posts Record 2025 Results, Lifts Distributions as Occupancy Surges

Chartwell Retirement Residences reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with property revenue rising roughly 34% for both the quarter and the year and occupancy climbing to 95.2% at year-end, above its 95% target. Net income and funds from operations also advanced, driven by higher resident revenues, improved margins, and efficiency gains that boosted same-property NOI and NOIPOS despite higher operating and administrative costs.

Management highlighted 2025 as a record year in which all strategic targets were met and more than $1.7 billion in acquisitions accelerated the shift toward newer, higher-quality residences. The company also announced a 2% increase in unitholder distributions effective March 31, 2026, underscoring confidence in its cash flow strength and providing a tangible benefit to investors as Chartwell positions itself for its 2026–2028 strategic plan.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:CSH.UN) stock is a Buy with a C$22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chartwell Retirement Residences stock, see the TSE:CSH.UN Stock Forecast page.

Chartwell Declares February Distribution and Updates Occupancy Outlook

Chartwell Retirement Residences has declared a cash distribution of $0.051 per trust unit for February 2026, payable on March 16 to unitholders of record as of Feb. 27, and continues to offer a Distribution Reinvestment Plan that allows investors to reinvest monthly payouts into additional units with a 3% bonus and no commission fees.

The company also updated investors on same property occupancy trends and provided forecasts for February and March 2026, underscoring management’s focus on tracking and communicating portfolio utilization as a key driver of revenue and operational performance in the competitive Canadian seniors housing market.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:CSH.UN) stock is a Buy with a C$22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chartwell Retirement Residences stock, see the TSE:CSH.UN Stock Forecast page.

Chartwell Sets Date for Q4 and 2025 Year-End Results and Investor Call

Chartwell Retirement Residences announced it will release its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, after markets close on February 26, 2026. Management will discuss the results on a conference call and webcast scheduled for the morning of February 27, 2026, with accompanying slides and a replay available through the company’s investor relations website, underscoring Chartwell’s ongoing emphasis on transparency and engagement with investors in the seniors housing sector.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:CSH.UN) stock is a Buy with a C$22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chartwell Retirement Residences stock, see the TSE:CSH.UN Stock Forecast page.

Chartwell Declares January 2026 Distribution and Expands Same-Property Portfolio for Occupancy Reporting

Chartwell Retirement Residences has declared a cash distribution of $0.051 per trust unit for January 2026, payable on February 17, 2026 to unitholders of record at the end of January, and continues to offer its Distribution Reinvestment Plan, allowing investors to reinvest monthly distributions into additional units with a 3% bonus allocation and without brokerage fees. The company also updated the composition of its same property portfolio for 2026 reporting, expanding it to 99 properties with 16,566 suites and a December 2025 same property occupancy rate of 94.8%, reflecting the movement of select assets from growth and repositioning categories and providing investors with clearer visibility into underlying occupancy performance as the portfolio evolves.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:CSH.UN) stock is a Buy with a C$22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chartwell Retirement Residences stock, see the TSE:CSH.UN Stock Forecast page.

Chartwell Declares January 2026 Distribution and Expands Same Property Portfolio

Chartwell Retirement Residences has declared a cash distribution of $0.051 per trust unit for January 2026, payable in mid-February to unitholders of record at the end of January, and continues to offer its Distribution Reinvestment Plan, which allows investors to reinvest monthly distributions into additional units with a 3% bonus, thereby increasing their holdings without incurring fees. The company also updated its same property occupancy metrics and portfolio composition for 2026, expanding the same property portfolio to 99 properties and 16,566 suites with a weighted average occupancy of 94.8% as of December 31, 2025, signaling ongoing stabilization and integration of former growth and repositioning assets and providing investors with greater transparency on near-term occupancy performance.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:CSH.UN) stock is a Buy with a C$22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chartwell Retirement Residences stock, see the TSE:CSH.UN Stock Forecast page.