Choice Properties Real Estate Investment (CHP.UN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $10.94B
• Dividend Yield: 5.21%
• Average Volume (3M): 415.84K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.45
• Revenue Growth: 1.93%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: CA
• Employees: 285
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Retail
• EPS (TTM): -0.07
• Shares Outstanding: 328,024,260
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 309,368
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 415,838
• PEG Ratio: 1.62
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.34
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.55
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.07
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.07
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 8.25
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.50
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 27.50
• 1Y Price Target: $16.61
• Price Target Upside: 9.93% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.07
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.57B

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: C$15.50 ▲(2.58% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/21/26

The score is driven primarily by steady cash flow and a stable revenue/margin profile, tempered by profitability volatility (including a 2025 net loss) and a leveraged balance sheet. Technical signals are weak and bearish, while valuation is mixed: an attractive dividend yield is offset by a negative P/E.

Positive Factors

Stable recurring rental income & strategic tenant relationship

Choice’s portfolio is anchored by necessity-based retail and a strategic relationship with Loblaw, producing predictable base rent and high occupancy durability. That tenancy profile supports steady cash flows and lowers vacancy sensitivity versus discretionary retail over a multi-quarter horizon.

Resilient operating and free cash flow

Consistent operating and positive free cash flow provide durable funding for distributions, development projects and debt service. Even with year-to-year swings, sustained cash generation underpins financial flexibility and the Trust’s ability to recycle capital over several quarters.

Value-creating development and intensification capability

The Trust’s capacity to add density and redevelop well-located sites creates a repeatable pathway to boost net operating income and asset value. This development pipeline is a structural growth lever that can compound cash flow and portfolio quality over the next 2–6 months and beyond.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage and refinancing sensitivity

A debt-heavy capital structure raises sensitivity to higher interest rates and refinancing risk, limiting flexibility to pursue acquisitions or absorb cash-flow shocks. Although leverage improved from earlier years, the structural indebtedness remains a medium-term constraint on strategic optionality.

Profitability volatility and recent net loss

Swinging from multi-year profits to a 2025 net loss undermines predictability of distributable earnings and return metrics. This volatility can impair reinvestment planning and makes long-run payout coverage and NAV growth less certain absent a sustained earnings rebound.

Tenant concentration risk (Loblaw exposure)

Heavy reliance on a single major tenant concentrates cash-flow risk: changes in Loblaw’s footprint, leasing strategy, or bargaining power could materially affect occupancy, rent roll and renewal economics, reducing diversification and increasing downside exposure over multiple quarters.

Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Choice Properties, Canada's preeminent diversified real estate investment trust, is the owner, manager and developer of a high-quality portfolio comprising 725 properties totaling 66.1 million square feet of gross leasable area. Choice Properties owns a portfolio comprised of retail properties predominantly leased to necessity-based tenants; industrial, office and residential assets concentrated in attractive markets; and offers an impressive and substantial development pipeline. Choice Properties' strategic alliance with its principal tenant, Loblaw Companies Limited, the country's leading retailer, is a key competitive advantage providing long-term growth opportunities.

How the Company Makes Money

Choice Properties makes money primarily by generating recurring rental income from leasing its properties to tenants under commercial lease agreements. Its key revenue streams typically include: (1) Base rent from long-term leases across its retail, industrial, and mixed-use portfolio, with a significant portion historically coming from Loblaw Companies Limited and related banners under contractual lease arrangements; this concentration can provide stable occupancy and cash flow. (2) Recoveries and reimbursements (often structured as additional rent), where tenants pay their share of property operating costs such as common area maintenance, property taxes, utilities, and insurance depending on lease terms (e.g., net or semi-net structures). (3) Development, redevelopment, and intensification value creation, where the trust can earn incremental stabilized net operating income by building new space, expanding or modernizing existing sites, and adding density (including mixed-use) on well-located land; returns are realized through higher future rents and increased property values rather than one-time “product” sales in the way an operating company would. (4) Ancillary real estate income, which can include parking income, lease termination fees, and other property-related revenue depending on asset type and lease provisions. (5) Dispositions and fair-value/transactional gains (non-recurring), where the trust may sell properties or interests as part of portfolio optimization; proceeds can be recycled into developments, debt reduction, or acquisitions. Significant factors influencing earnings include occupancy levels, rental rate escalators and renewals, the credit quality and concentration of major tenants (notably Loblaw), interest rates and refinancing costs (given the use of mortgage and unsecured debt), and the pace/cost of development and leasing on projects.

Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Stable revenue and consistently strong gross margins support baseline business quality, and operating/free cash flow has remained positive and relatively resilient. Offsetting this, profitability has been volatile with a net loss in 2025, and leverage remains structurally elevated for the sector despite some improvement versus earlier years.

Income Statement

Revenue has been relatively stable over the period (with a modest rebound in 2025 after a 2024 decline), and gross margin remains consistently strong (~70%+), which supports baseline earnings quality. However, profitability is volatile: net income swung from strong profits in 2022–2024 to a loss in 2025, and operating profitability also dropped sharply in 2025 versus prior years. Overall, the income profile looks stable at the top line but less reliable at the bottom line.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a leveraged REIT profile, with debt consistently higher than equity (debt-to-equity roughly ~1.4–1.9 over the period), which increases sensitivity to financing conditions. That said, equity is sizable relative to the asset base, and leverage has improved from earlier years (lower debt-to-equity than 2021–2022). Return on equity was healthy in 2022–2024 but turned negative in 2025, underscoring earnings volatility as the key balance-sheet risk.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has been steady and resilient across years, and free cash flow has remained positive throughout the period—an important support for a REIT’s funding and distribution capacity. However, free cash flow declined materially in 2025 (down ~22% vs. prior year), and cash generation has shown noticeable year-to-year swings (including a sharp drop in 2023). Despite the 2025 net loss, the business still produced substantial operating and free cash flow, which is a relative strength.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.42B	1.37B	1.43B	1.26B	1.29B
Gross Profit	1.02B	978.57M	1.04B	900.64M	912.01M
EBITDA	236.54M	1.37B	1.14B	1.28B	956.90M
Net Income	-61.19M	784.44M	796.69M	744.25M	23.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	17.91B	17.56B	17.31B	16.82B	16.17B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	71.18M	63.39M	252.42M	64.74M	84.30M
Total Debt	6.80B	6.68B	6.70B	6.55B	6.23B
Total Liabilities	7.47B	12.66B	12.94B	13.00B	12.86B
Stockholders Equity	4.58B	4.90B	4.37B	3.82B	3.31B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	534.16M	724.73M	641.97M	1.01B	773.41M
Operating Cash Flow	697.71M	724.73M	641.97M	633.15M	669.43M
Investing Cash Flow	-550.46M	-584.21M	-361.35M	-616.73M	-64.12M
Financing Cash Flow	-139.45M	-329.56M	-92.94M	-35.99M	-728.22M

Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 15.11
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CHP.UN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.11 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.68, below the 50-day MA of 15.52, and above the 200-day MA of 14.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CHP.UN.

Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PMZ.UN	75 Outperform	C$1.99B	8.78	6.52%	5.52%	26.88%	77.26%
CRR.UN	74 Outperform	C$2.92B	24.31	6.29%	5.82%	6.32%	―
FCR.UN	73 Outperform	C$4.34B	3.77	25.30%	4.71%	-0.83%	-28.93%
SRU.UN	71 Outperform	C$4.52B	10.88	4.85%	7.22%	0.48%	96.32%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
CHP.UN	56 Neutral	$10.94B	-175.19	-1.32%	5.21%	1.93%	―
REI.UN	55 Neutral	$5.48B	79.85	0.92%	6.21%	22.22%	-71.38%