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Cameco (TSE:CCO)
:CCO

Cameco (CCO) AI Stock Analysis

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Cameco

(NYSE:CCO)

Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
C$94.00
▲(13.61%Upside)
Cameco's stock score of 78 reflects robust financial performance and a strong industry outlook, supported by strategic partnerships. However, high valuation metrics and overbought technical indicators suggest potential caution. Geopolitical risks and production challenges also pose threats.
Positive Factors
Contracts
Cameco added 220 million pounds to its contract book despite generally muted contracting by utilities.
Earnings
Cameco recently reported better than expected 4Q24 results, with adjusted EPS beating consensus estimates.
Financial Performance
Q4’24 free cash flow was higher than expected, driving lower-than-expected net debt.
Negative Factors
Market Sentiment
Uranium equities have experienced significant sell-offs due to weak spot prices and uncertainty around government policies affecting the nuclear industry.
Market Uncertainty
Long-term contracting has slowed due to macro-economic uncertainty and customers’ focus on securing downstream services.

Cameco (CCO) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Cameco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCameco Corporation produces and sells uranium. It operates through two segments, Uranium and Fuel Services. The Uranium segment is involved in the exploration for, mining, and milling, as well as purchase and sale of uranium concentrate. The Fuel Services segment engages in the refining, conversion, and fabrication of uranium concentrate, as well as the purchase and sale of conversion services. This segment also produces fuel bundles or reactor components for CANDU reactors. The company sells its uranium and fuel services to nuclear utilities in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. Cameco Corporation was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyCameco makes money primarily through the extraction and sale of uranium, which is used as a fuel in nuclear reactors. The company's revenue streams are largely driven by long-term contracts with utility companies that require a stable supply of uranium for power generation. Additionally, Cameco generates income from its fuel services segment, which involves refining and converting uranium into fuel for nuclear reactors. The company's financial performance is influenced by uranium market prices, production volumes, and its ability to manage operational costs. Partnerships with global utility companies and strategic investments in mining operations also play a significant role in Cameco's earnings.

Cameco Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 32.96%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance and a positive long-term outlook for the nuclear energy sector. However, there are significant challenges including geopolitical risks, production challenges, and uncertainties in long-term contracting. The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic but acknowledges these substantial risks.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Revenue increased by 24%, gross profit up by 44%, adjusted net earnings increased by 52%, and adjusted EBITDA up by 5%.
Positive Long-Term Industry Outlook
The future picture for nuclear energy is more positive than ever, with global demand for nuclear energy increasing and significant positive industry developments reported.
Westinghouse Acquisition Benefits
Notable improvements in Westinghouse's adjusted EBITDA by 19%, and a strong outlook for the whole year is expected.
China's Nuclear Expansion
China approved 10 new nuclear reactors, marking the fourth consecutive year of such announcements, highlighting strong future demand.
Solid Financial Position
Final repayment of a $600 million term loan for the Westinghouse acquisition achieved, indicating a strong balance sheet.
Negative Updates
Westinghouse Segment Loss
Westinghouse reported a net loss in the first quarter of 2025 due to normal quarterly variations and ongoing amortization, with an expected annual net loss between $20 million and $70 million.
Geopolitical and Tariff Risks
The U.S. threatened tariffs on Canadian energy products, creating ongoing uncertainties about future trade policies affecting uranium imports.
JV Inkai Production Challenges
Following an unexpected suspension of production in January, JV Inkai updated its plans with a 2025 production target of 8.3 million pounds, which comes with risks due to ongoing supply chain challenges.
Uncertainty in Long-Term Contracting
Despite rising uranium prices, the industry is not seeing the level of long-term contracting necessary to support planned expansions.
Company Guidance
During the Cameco Corporation's first quarter 2025 results conference call, the company provided robust guidance highlighting several key financial metrics. Cameco reported a 24% increase in revenue, a 44% rise in gross profit, and a 52% boost in adjusted net earnings, alongside a 5% growth in adjusted EBITDA. The company also noted a significant improvement in its average realized price for uranium, which increased year-over-year despite a 30% decrease in the average uranium spot price. The Westinghouse segment, however, reported a net loss, but showed a 19% improvement in adjusted EBITDA compared to the first quarter of the previous year. Cameco's strong financial position was emphasized, with a focus on maintaining a balance sheet that supports strategic execution, particularly amid ongoing geopolitical challenges and trade uncertainties.

Cameco Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Cameco's financial performance is robust, with strong revenue and profit growth, improved gross profit margins, and effective cash flow management. Key strengths include operational efficiency and profitability. However, increasing debt levels and financing cash flow trends warrant monitoring.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Cameco's income statement shows strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from 2020 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The gross profit margin improved, indicating better cost management. Net profit margin has also been positive and improving, reflecting enhanced profitability. Additionally, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown upward trends, further indicating operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a robust equity position, with a stable equity ratio, implying financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is reasonable, suggesting manageable leverage levels. Return on Equity (ROE) has improved, highlighting effective utilization of equity to generate profits. However, the total debt has increased slightly, which needs monitoring.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio, indicating quality earnings. Free cash flow has grown, providing flexibility for investments and debt repayment. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, suggesting efficient cash generation relative to reported profits. However, there is a need to watch financing cash flows which indicate potential risk if negative trends continue.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
3.29B3.14B2.59B1.87B1.47B1.80B
Gross Profit
961.04M1.06B561.67M233.29M1.93M106.45M
EBIT
559.52M510.11M282.86M130.36M-52.32M-6.75M
EBITDA
775.17M789.34M660.85M276.56M138.10M252.67M
Net Income Common Stockholders
248.67M171.85M360.85M89.38M-102.65M-53.20M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
323.22M600.46M566.81M2.04B1.10B753.23M
Total Assets
9.50B9.91B9.93B8.63B7.52B7.58B
Total Debt
1.54B1.30B1.79B997.00M996.25M995.54M
Net Debt
1.22B695.55M1.23B92.33M-17.94M267.30M
Total Liabilities
3.39B3.54B3.84B2.80B2.67B2.62B
Stockholders Equity
6.11B6.36B6.09B5.84B4.85B4.96B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
675.89M693.65M534.50M161.16M359.50M-20.57M
Operating Cash Flow
903.96M905.29M688.14M304.61M458.29M56.89M
Investing Cash Flow
-223.81M-206.44M-2.04B-1.29B-80.30M-101.03M
Financing Cash Flow
-709.32M-688.42M748.81M869.26M-46.77M-97.99M

Cameco Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price82.74
Price Trends
50DMA
66.79
Positive
100DMA
66.97
Positive
200DMA
68.78
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
4.53
Positive
RSI
72.06
Negative
STOCH
52.60
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 82.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 77.63, above the 50-day MA of 66.79, and above the 200-day MA of 68.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 72.06 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CCO.

Cameco Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSCCO
78
Outperform
C$36.02B144.803.93%0.19%29.88%5.54%
57
Neutral
$7.23B3.16-4.49%5.63%0.82%-49.15%
DNDNN
$1.49B31.01-20.00%
TSEU
53
Neutral
C$547.61M-25.71%58.00%-256.97%
NXNXE
$3.64B23.27-9.06%
$312.57M285.370.45%
48
Neutral
C$151.29M-4.92%48.50%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:CCO
Cameco
82.74
8.97
12.16%
DNN
Denison Mines
1.68
-0.44
-20.75%
TSE:EU
enCore Energy
2.94
-2.73
-48.15%
NXE
NexGen Energy
6.40
-0.64
-9.09%
UROY
Uranium Royalty Corp
2.34
-0.10
-4.10%
TSE:SASK
Atha Energy Corp.
0.53
-0.11
-17.19%

Cameco Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Cameco Projects $170 Million Boost in 2025 EBITDA from Westinghouse Partnership
Positive
Jun 6, 2025

Cameco anticipates a significant increase in its share of Westinghouse Electric Company’s 2025 adjusted EBITDA, amounting to approximately $170 million (US). This increase is attributed to Westinghouse’s involvement in constructing two nuclear reactors at the Dukovany power plant in the Czech Republic. The expected financial benefits from this project, including the provision of fuel fabrication services, are poised to enhance Westinghouse’s financial performance and growth outlook. This development underscores Cameco’s strategic positioning in the nuclear energy sector and its potential positive impact on stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CCO) stock is a Buy with a C$62.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cameco stock, see the TSE:CCO Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Cameco Perseveres Amid Saskatchewan Wildfires, Maintains Production Targets
Neutral
Jun 4, 2025

Cameco continues operations at its northern Saskatchewan sites despite wildfires affecting parts of the province. Although there are no fires near its operations, the company faces temporary disruptions in power and communication services, along with road closures impacting deliveries. Cameco prioritizes employee safety, accommodating requests from staff needing to assist families in affected communities. Despite these challenges, the company maintains its annual production target, underscoring its resilience and commitment to operational stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CCO) stock is a Buy with a C$52.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cameco stock, see the TSE:CCO Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Cameco Elects New Board Members, Reinforcing Leadership in Uranium Sector
Positive
May 9, 2025

Cameco announced the election of ten board members during its annual meeting on May 9, 2025. The elected members include Daniel Camus, Tammy Cook-Searson, Catherine Gignac, Tim Gitzel, Marie Inkster, Kathryn Jackson, Don Kayne, Peter Kukielski, Dominique Minière, and Leontine van Leeuwen-Atkins. This election reflects the company’s commitment to maintaining strong governance and leadership, which is crucial for its continued success in the global uranium market. The high percentage of votes in favor of the nominees indicates strong shareholder support, which may positively impact Cameco’s strategic direction and stakeholder confidence.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Cameco Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results Amid Nuclear Market Momentum
Positive
May 1, 2025

Cameco reported strong financial and operational results for the first quarter of 2025, driven by its long-term contracting strategy and robust performance across its uranium, fuel services, and Westinghouse segments. Despite challenges such as geopolitical shifts and economic instability, the company maintained its positive market momentum, benefiting from the growing support for nuclear energy due to its energy, national, and climate security attributes. Cameco’s strategic focus on long-term contracts has allowed it to capture market upside while mitigating risks, positioning the company well in the transitioning nuclear market.

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Cameco Files Annual Report and Announces Upcoming Releases
Positive
Mar 21, 2025

Cameco has announced the filing of its annual report on Form 40-F with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, which includes audited financial statements for 2024, management’s discussion and analysis, and its Canadian annual information form. These documents have also been filed with Canadian securities regulatory authorities. Additionally, Cameco plans to release its management proxy circular and Modern Slavery Report in compliance with Canadian legislation. This announcement reflects Cameco’s commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance, potentially reinforcing its market position and stakeholder trust.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.