Bonterra Energy (BNE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$232.28M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 41.55K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.75
• Revenue Growth: -9.55%
• EPS Growth: -154.04%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 41
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): -0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 36,068,680
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 59,503
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 41,553
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.32
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.76
• P/FCF Ratio: 24.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.08
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$263.10M

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: C$6.00 ▲(34.83% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/15/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/15/26

The score is held back primarily by weaker 2025 financial performance (revenue decline and a return to net losses) and volatile free cash flow, despite a manageable leverage profile and solid operating cash flow. Technically, the stock shows a strong uptrend, but overbought signals temper the outlook. Valuation is constrained by a negative P/E and no available dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Manageable Leverage

A debt-to-equity near 0.34 gives Bonterra meaningful balance-sheet headroom versus higher-levered peers. That lower leverage reduces refinancing and liquidity risk, supports continued drilling and maintenance capex, and provides flexibility through commodity cycles.

Operating Cash Flow Resilience

Consistently positive operating cash flow that covered net losses in 2025 signals that core production generates cash even in weak earnings periods. This durable cash generation supports sustaining capex and operations, reducing near-term reliance on external financing.

High EBITDA Margin

A high EBITDA margin indicates that underlying field-level economics and cost structure remain efficient. That margin cushion helps absorb commodity price swings, aids recovery of net income when prices improve, and supports reinvestment without immediate margin dilution.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline and Net Loss

A roughly 16.7% revenue decline coupled with a swing to a net loss shows sensitivity to volumes or realizations and highlights earnings cyclicality. Sustained revenue pressure would reduce reinvestment ability, force spending cuts or asset sales, and slow any recovery trajectory.

Thin, Volatile Free Cash Flow

Thin and inconsistent free cash flow limits strategic optionality and increases dependence on external funding or asset dispositions to fund growth. Volatile FCF makes multi-quarter planning fragile and raises execution risk for multi-year drilling or development programs.

Weakened Returns (ROE)

Negative return on equity indicates the balance sheet is not generating shareholder value and signals weakened profitability. Prolonged negative ROE can erode investor confidence, hinder capital raising, and limit the company’s ability to finance growth without diluting returns.

Bonterra Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bonterra Energy Corp. engages in the production and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. It primarily focuses on the development of its Cardium land within the Pembina and Willesden Green areas located in west central Alberta. The company also holds interests in the Shaunavon area located in southwest Saskatchewan, and the Prespatou area located in northeast British Columbia. Bonterra Energy Corp. is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Bonterra Energy makes money primarily by producing crude oil and natural gas (and associated natural gas liquids, if produced) from its operated and non-operated properties and selling these commodities into the market. Revenue is largely a function of: (1) production volumes, (2) realized commodity prices (which can differ from benchmark prices due to quality and regional differentials), and (3) the company’s marketing and transportation arrangements that determine where and how product is sold. Cash flow is reduced by royalties payable to the applicable mineral rights owners/Crown, operating costs to run and maintain wells and facilities, and transportation and processing fees required to move and treat hydrocarbons to sales points. Bonterra may also realize gains or losses from risk-management activities (e.g., commodity price hedging) if used, and from other upstream monetization actions such as dispositions of producing assets, land, or mineral interests; if these occur, they can contribute to earnings in the period they are executed. Specific significant partnerships or customer contracts are null.

Bonterra Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mid-range fundamentals: revenue fell ~16.7% YoY in 2025 and results swung from profit (2024) to net loss (2025), indicating meaningful earnings deterioration and volatility. Offsetting this, leverage appears manageable (debt-to-equity ~0.34) and operating cash flow stayed solid, though free cash flow is thin and volatile.

Income Statement

Profitability has deteriorated meaningfully: 2025 annual revenue fell ~16.7% year over year and the company moved from a profit in 2024 to a net loss in 2025, with margins compressing sharply versus the strong 2022–2023 period. A key positive is that EBITDA margin remains high in 2025, but the swing to negative EBIT and net income highlights elevated costs/charges and earnings volatility typical of the commodity cycle.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable for the sector, with debt-to-equity around 0.34 in 2025 and equity still substantial relative to total assets, suggesting reasonable balance-sheet capacity. The main concern is weakened returns: return on equity turned negative in 2025 after modest profitability in 2024, indicating the balance sheet is currently not translating into shareholder earnings.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remained solid in 2025 and was more than sufficient to cover net losses, indicating resilience in cash generation despite weak reported earnings. However, free cash flow is thin and volatile—positive but down sharply in 2025, and negative in 2024—limiting financial flexibility and increasing dependence on commodity conditions and capital discipline.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	216.37M	279.96M	273.11M	384.20M	251.62M
Gross Profit	16.31M	53.30M	95.80M	145.79M	78.41M
EBITDA	103.30M	137.53M	174.52M	217.17M	336.66M
Net Income	-17.13M	10.20M	44.94M	79.02M	179.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	959.43M	975.04M	967.87M	919.68M	945.72M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	0.00	1.63M	2.03M	188.00K
Total Debt	176.44M	156.83M	139.43M	157.45M	257.57M
Total Liabilities	437.40M	434.40M	439.61M	439.84M	553.70M
Stockholders Equity	522.03M	540.64M	528.26M	479.84M	392.02M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.88M	-8.52M	14.14M	106.35M	30.44M
Operating Cash Flow	89.80M	114.95M	140.62M	183.55M	96.10M
Investing Cash Flow	-86.04M	-127.39M	-118.25M	-85.51M	-67.75M
Financing Cash Flow	-3.76M	12.44M	-22.38M	-98.04M	-28.36M

Bonterra Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4.45
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:BNE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.51, below the 50-day MA of 5.11, and above the 200-day MA of 4.05, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 78.43 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 98.01 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:BNE.

Bonterra Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ORC.B	76 Outperform	C$95.35M	0.82	18.65%	2.08%	10.08%	322.40%
HME	71 Outperform	C$248.64M	7.63	38.78%	8.04%	2.27%	3.61%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
KEI	64 Neutral	C$229.47M	13.84	9.12%	―	12.17%	6.99%
TPL	61 Neutral	C$146.25M	14.68	-37.75%	0.66%	12.23%	-424.88%
BNE	55 Neutral	C$232.28M	-9.66	-3.24%	―	-9.55%	-154.04%
SEI	45 Neutral	C$243.84M	-15.92	-51.21%	―	―	-27.99%

Bonterra Energy Corporate Events

Bonterra Energy Posts Record 2025 Output, Expands Charlie Lake Footprint

Bonterra Energy reported record 2025 annual production of 15,513 BOE per day, a 5 percent increase that exceeded guidance, driven by its Charlie Lake drilling program and well reactivations in the Pembina Cardium. The company expanded its Charlie Lake core area via a strategic Bonanza asset acquisition, adding low-decline production and top-tier drilling locations while continuing to delineate its Montney position and managing modestly higher operating costs.

Financially, Bonterra generated $94.2 million in funds flow and $17.2 million in adjusted free funds flow, the latter rising 65 percent year over year on a more efficient capital program despite weaker crude prices. Capital spending of $69.9 million came in within guidance, reserves grew 3 percent with improved finding and development costs and recycle ratios, and management reaffirmed 2026 guidance for higher production and a slightly larger capital program, underscoring confidence in long-term resource growth and balance-sheet strength.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:BNE) stock is a Hold with a C$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bonterra Energy stock, see the TSE:BNE Stock Forecast page.

Bonterra Energy Expands Charlie Lake Operations with New Wells and Strategic Acquisition

Bonterra Energy Corp. announced significant developments in its Charlie Lake operations, including the completion of two high-performing wells and a strategic acquisition to expand its core area. The acquisition will enhance production capacity and drilling opportunities, supported by a preliminary 2026 budget aimed at achieving 8% year-over-year production growth. The company plans to leverage its increased land holdings and infrastructure to optimize operations and strengthen its market position.