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Alvopetro Energy (TSE:ALV)
:ALV

Alvopetro Energy (ALV) AI Stock Analysis

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Alvopetro Energy

(ALV)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
C$6.50
▲(8.70%Upside)
Alvopetro Energy demonstrates strong financial health and operational efficiency, coupled with an attractive valuation. The technical indicators suggest momentum, though caution is warranted due to overbought signals. The positive earnings call outlook supports future growth, despite some financial challenges. This positions Alvopetro well within the industry, with a strong overall score.

Alvopetro Energy (ALV) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Alvopetro Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAlvopetro Energy Ltd. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of hydrocarbons. As of December 31, 2021, it held interests in the Caburé and Murucututu natural gas assets; two exploration assets comprising Blocks 182 and the western portion of Block 183; and two oil fields, Bom Lugar and Mãe-da-lua, which include 22,166 acres in the Recôncavo basin onshore Brazil. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyAlvopetro Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of natural gas and oil produced from its exploration and production activities in Brazil. The company's revenue model is centered on extracting natural resources and selling them to industrial, commercial, and power generation customers. Key revenue streams include long-term gas sales agreements with local distributors and industries, ensuring a stable and predictable cash flow. Alvopetro's partnership with key players in the energy sector, along with its strategic positioning in a high-demand market, significantly contributes to its earnings. Additionally, the company may also generate income from the sale of oil byproducts and other ancillary services related to energy production.

Alvopetro Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 10.74%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong growth in production, reserve increases, and strategic expansion into new markets, demonstrating a positive outlook for 2025. While there were some financial challenges in Q4 2024, such as decreased operating netback and foreign exchange losses, the overall sentiment remains optimistic due to operational achievements and strategic initiatives.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Production Capacity
Alvopetro's January and February production averaged 2,375 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 37% from Q4 2024 production.
Dividend Increase
Announced an increase in the dividend for Q1 2025 to US$0.10 per share, reflecting a 12% yield at current share prices.
Significant Reserve Growth
Proved reserves increased by 65% and proved + probable reserves increased by 5% year-over-year.
Strong Operating Netback Margin
Despite a slight decrease, the operating netback remained high at 86%.
Debt-Free Status
Maintained a strong balance sheet with $13.2 million in working capital and no debt since September 2022.
Strategic Expansion into Canada
Entered the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, targeting Mannville heavy oil fairway with promising new technologies.
Successful Contract Revision
Revised gas sales agreement with Bahiagás, increasing firm sales by 33% and removing previous contractual ceiling provisions.
Negative Updates
Decreased Q4 Operating Netback
Operating netback decreased by $4.10 from the previous quarter, primarily due to lower sales volumes and prices.
Foreign Exchange Losses
Experienced a $2 million foreign exchange loss in Q4 2024, a significant swing from a $600,000 gain in Q3.
Reduced Natural Gas Sales Price
Natural gas sales price decreased by about 4% from the previous quarter.
Sales Volume Reduction
Q4 2024 saw a 17% reduction in sales volumes compared to Q3.
Company Guidance
In the Q4 2024 results webcast, Alvopetro provided detailed guidance for 2025, highlighting several key metrics. The company has increased its firm natural gas supply to Bahiagás by 33%, leading to an average production of 2,375 barrels of oil equivalent per day in January and February, up 37% from Q4 2024. The operating netback was reported at $55.09, with a margin of 86%, despite a 4% reduction in realized sales price and a 17% reduction in volumes. Alvopetro announced a dividend increase to US$0.10 per share for Q1 2025, reflecting higher sales volumes. The year-end reserve report showed a 65% increase in 1P reserves, totaling 4.5 million BOE, and a 5% increase in 2P reserves, totaling 9.1 million BOE. The company's balance sheet remains strong, with $13.2 million in working capital and no debt. Alvopetro has strategically entered the Canadian market, drilling two wells in the Mannville heavy oil fairway, aiming to capitalize on multi-zone reservoirs. The company projects a strong 2025 with a focus on maintaining a balanced capital allocation model, emphasizing both organic growth and stakeholder returns.

Alvopetro Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Alvopetro Energy maintains a strong profitability with high gross and net profit margins. However, a decline in revenue growth poses a challenge. The balance sheet is robust with low leverage, while cash flow generation is solid despite a decrease in free cash flow growth.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Alvopetro Energy shows a solid financial performance with a strong Gross Profit Margin and Net Profit Margin over the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) period. The Gross Profit Margin stands at 67.23%, and the Net Profit Margin is 37.29%, indicating efficient cost management and profitability. However, the Revenue Growth Rate has declined by 11.72% compared to the previous year, which may signal challenges in maintaining past growth levels. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 51.63% and 64.92%, respectively, reflecting strong operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a strong Equity Ratio of 78.81%, indicating a solid capital structure. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is low at 0.09, showcasing minimal leverage and financial risk. Return on Equity (ROE) is impressive at 20.67%, highlighting effective use of shareholders' equity to generate profits. This stable financial footing provides a buffer against market volatility.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Alvopetro Energy demonstrates strong cash flow generation capabilities, with an Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.99, suggesting efficient conversion of income to cash. Free Cash Flow, however, has decreased compared to the previous year, resulting in a negative Free Cash Flow Growth Rate of -27.21%. Despite this, the company's cash flow metrics remain robust, supporting ongoing operations and potential investments.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
47.78M45.52M58.03M63.51M34.98M11.31M
Gross Profit
32.12M32.46M53.83M48.47M20.13M7.16M
EBIT
24.66M25.13M47.66M43.00M15.38M3.19M
EBITDA
31.01M28.11M41.96M46.28M22.16M5.64M
Net Income Common Stockholders
17.82M16.30M28.52M31.73M5.59M5.71M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
18.33M21.70M18.33M19.78M11.47M5.16M
Total Assets
109.83M101.02M109.83M98.43M81.23M80.39M
Total Debt
8.68M7.86M8.68M9.43M14.52M23.73M
Net Debt
-9.64M-13.83M-9.64M-10.36M3.06M18.57M
Total Liabilities
21.62M21.66M21.62M22.02M22.61M27.28M
Stockholders Equity
88.21M79.36M88.21M76.41M58.63M53.11M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
14.26M19.60M20.25M22.74M19.78M-356.00K
Operating Cash Flow
35.51M34.90M47.70M47.53M24.29M3.06M
Investing Cash Flow
-17.87M-11.69M-27.75M-22.77M-3.98M-3.23M
Financing Cash Flow
-16.48M-17.99M-21.74M-16.55M-13.74M4.23M

Alvopetro Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price5.98
Price Trends
50DMA
5.31
Positive
100DMA
5.05
Positive
200DMA
4.87
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.20
Positive
RSI
68.69
Neutral
STOCH
76.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ALV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.77, above the 50-day MA of 5.31, and above the 200-day MA of 4.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 68.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ALV.

Alvopetro Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSALV
76
Outperform
C$217.54M8.9920.38%8.66%-10.32%-12.38%
57
Neutral
$7.14B3.01-3.46%5.69%0.76%-49.20%
$151.67M-29.28%10.11%
TSHME
82
Outperform
C$170.11M4.8848.97%5.75%22.64%44.49%
TSPRQ
64
Neutral
C$166.67M154.760.33%9.23%-21.04%-96.30%
TSIPO
61
Neutral
C$250.06M27.251.69%12.07%-14.73%-71.36%
56
Neutral
C$237.26M-80.24%73.53%48.09%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:ALV
Alvopetro Energy
5.97
1.59
36.30%
PIFYF
Pine Cliff Energy
0.42
-0.31
-42.47%
TSE:HME
Hemisphere Energy
1.80
0.30
20.00%
TSE:GASX
NG Energy International
0.92
0.11
13.58%
TSE:PRQ
Petrus Resources
1.30
0.10
8.33%
TSE:IPO
InPlay Oil Corp.
9.32
-1.55
-14.26%

Alvopetro Energy Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alvopetro Energy Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results and Strategic Expansion
Positive
May 7, 2025

Alvopetro Energy Ltd. reported a 41% increase in Q1 2025 sales volumes, indicating a strong start to the year and positioning the company for an ambitious capital program. The company is capitalizing on high-return opportunities in Brazil and Canada, with its first two Canadian wells exceeding expectations. Alvopetro’s strategic entry into the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin is part of its plan to expand its inventory of prospective opportunities while maintaining a disciplined capital allocation model. The company also announced a 7% increase in natural gas prices under its agreement with Bahiagás, effective May 1, 2025, which will impact its revenue positively.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alvopetro Energy Reports 41% Increase in Q1 2025 Sales Volumes
Positive
Apr 3, 2025

Alvopetro Energy Ltd. reported a significant increase in sales volumes for March 2025, with an average daily sales volume of 2,580 boepd, marking a 41% rise from the previous quarter. This growth is attributed to increased production from their Caburé and Murucututu fields, reflecting the company’s successful strategic investments and positioning in the natural gas market.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alvopetro Energy Reports 41% Increase in Q1 2025 Sales Volumes
Positive
Apr 3, 2025

Alvopetro Energy Ltd. reported a significant increase in its sales volumes for March 2025, with an average daily sales volume of 2,580 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), marking a 41% increase from the previous quarter. This growth is attributed to increased production from its Caburé and Murucututu natural gas fields, positioning the company strongly within the energy market and indicating robust operational performance and strategic infrastructure development.

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alvopetro Energy Reports Strong Start to 2025 with Increased Gas Sales and Reserve Growth
Positive
Mar 18, 2025

Alvopetro Energy Ltd. reported a 37% increase in natural gas sales volumes for the start of 2025, attributed to enhanced productive capacity and an updated gas sales agreement. The company announced a quarterly dividend increase to US$0.10 per share, reflecting its commitment to balanced capital allocation. Alvopetro also revealed significant reserve increases, with 1P reserves up by 65% and 2P reserves by 5%, boosting the company’s net present value and indicating strong future potential. The company is actively expanding its operations with new drilling projects in both the Murucututu natural gas field and Western Saskatchewan.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alvopetro Energy Reports February Sales and Strategic Focus
Neutral
Mar 5, 2025

Alvopetro Energy reported February 2025 sales volumes of 2,285 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with natural gas sales reaching 13.0 million cubic feet per day. The sales volumes were slightly impacted by reduced demand in the last week of February, but March sales are expected to align with January levels. The company’s strategic focus on organic growth and balanced capital allocation continues to support its operations and stakeholder returns.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.