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Ag Growth Int'l Inc. (TSE:AFN)
TSX:AFN
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Ag Growth International (AFN) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:AFN

Ag Growth International

(TSX:AFN)

Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
C$40.00
▼(-2.63% Downside)
Ag Growth International's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including high leverage and weak cash flow, which are the most impactful factors. The technical analysis and valuation further indicate potential risks, while the earnings call provides some optimism due to strong performance in the Commercial segment and strategic initiatives to manage debt.
Positive Factors
Growth Outlook
Strong medium to long-term growth outlook for Ag Growth International is expected.
Investment Recommendation
Analyst recommends buying the stock with a target price set at C$66.00.
Negative Factors
Regulatory Issues
Regulatory friction undermines near-term outlook.
Sector Performance
Farm sector remains weak, impacting performance.

Ag Growth International (AFN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Ag Growth International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAg Growth International Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes grain and rice handling, storage, and conditioning equipment in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company offers storage equipment comprising grain and bolted bins, hopper bins, smooth wall bins, temporary storage equipment, unloads and sweeps, water tanks, fuel tanks; and conditioning equipment, such as mixed flow dryers, fans and heaters, aerations, airaugers, aeration floors, vents and exhausters, stirrings, and accessories. It also provides portable handling equipment, such as portable augers, conveyors, grain vacs, post pounders, seed treaters, and accessories; and permanent handling equipment, including bucket elevators, chain and belt conveyors, enclosed belt conveyors, distributors, feed handling equipment, screw feeders and conveyors, and spouts and connections. In addition, the company offers towers, catwalks, ladders, all-steel buildings, flat storage buildings; batch blenders, bulk scales, declining weight blenders, vertical blenders, micro-dosing systems, mixers, milling equipment; and controllers, hazard monitoring equipment, monitoring and automation equipment, sampling solutions. Further, it provides cleaning and destoners, rice milling and processing equipment, bin unloads, blending and control systems, Liquid and dry fertilizer blending and conveying equipment, turnkey design and build construction solutions for seed and fertilizer facilities, and farm management software. The company markets its products under the AGI, Airlanco, Batco, Brownie, CMC, Compass, Danmare, Ezee-dry, Frame, Grain Guard, Grainmaxx, Hi Roller, Hutchinson, Improtech, Junge, Keho, Mayrath, Milltec, MMS, Neco, PTM, REM, Sabe, Sentinel, Storm, Suretrack, Tramco, Twister, Westeel, Westfield, Wheatheart, and Yargus brand names. It provides its equipment for agricultural commodities. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Winnipeg, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyAg Growth International generates revenue primarily through the sale of its agricultural equipment and solutions. Key revenue streams include the manufacturing and distribution of grain handling products, such as augers and conveyors, as well as grain storage systems and conditioning equipment. The company benefits from its extensive distribution network and strategic partnerships with agricultural dealers and distributors worldwide, enhancing its market reach and sales potential. Additionally, AFN may engage in service agreements, maintenance contracts, and equipment financing options, further contributing to its earnings. The company's focus on innovation and product development also helps in maintaining a competitive edge and attracting new customers.

Ag Growth International Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected strong performance in the Commercial segment, particularly in international markets like Brazil and EMEA, with a stable and growing order book. However, challenges in the Farm segment and increased debt leverage are notable concerns. The company's focus on monetizing receivables to improve financial metrics and the strong commercial pipeline provide confidence in future performance.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Commercial Segment Performance
Commercial segment revenue increased with EBITDA contribution of $37 million, up 58% year-over-year. The EBITDA margin for the overall commercial segment increased to 16.6% from 14.8% in Q2 2024.
International Market Successes
Significant project wins and execution in Brazil and EMEA, with Brazil's commercial order book up 15% year-over-year. The order book for the Commercial segment accounts for 85% of the total order book.
Order Book Stability
Consolidated order book stands at $660 million, up 4% year-over-year, with additional $100 million+ in commitments post-quarter.
Debt Reduction Strategy
Initiatives to monetize Brazilian receivables are expected to reduce net debt leverage ratio to low to mid-3x range by year-end.
SG&A Cost Improvements
Total company SG&A costs improved year-over-year as a percentage of revenue, with operational excellence initiatives optimizing spend.
Negative Updates
Farm Segment Challenges
Persistent challenges in the Farm segment due to soft commodity prices, shifting tariff policies, and high dealer channel inventories.
Increased Other Segment Expenses
Other segment expenses increased to $12 million from $8 million year-over-year, driven by reduced miscellaneous other income and variable compensation accruals.
Elevated Net Debt Leverage
Net debt leverage ratio increased to 3.9x, reflecting sizable but temporary working capital investments required for large-scale projects.
ERP Implementation Costs
Ongoing ERP implementation costs expected to persist through 2027, impacting financials over the coming years.
Company Guidance
In the AGI Second Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call, the company provided guidance for the year, maintaining its outlook for full year adjusted EBITDA of at least $225 million. This guidance reflects a shift in the mix, with stronger expectations for the Commercial segment offsetting tempered expectations for the Farm segment. In Q2 2025, AGI reported adjusted EBITDA of $54 million, aligning with the high end of their expectations, and consolidated revenue of $349 million, approximately flat compared to Q2 2024. The Commercial segment's strong performance was highlighted by a year-over-year increase in EBITDA contribution to $37 million, a 58% rise, with notable growth in regions like Brazil, EMEA, and North America. Despite challenges in the Farm segment, AGI's consolidated order book reached $660 million, up 4% year-over-year, with the Commercial segment accounting for approximately 85% of the overall order book. The company remains focused on maintaining a net debt leverage ratio in the low to mid-3x range by the end of 2025 through strategic financial arrangements and effective capital allocation.

Ag Growth International Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ag Growth International faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenues, high leverage, and weak cash flow metrics. While there are some operational efficiencies, the overall financial health is concerning, requiring strategic improvements in revenue generation and debt management to enhance stability and profitability.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Ag Growth International's income statement shows a challenging period with declining revenues and negative net profit margins in the TTM. The gross profit margin remains relatively stable, but the significant drop in revenue growth rate and negative net income indicate financial stress. EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved slightly, suggesting some operational efficiency gains.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet reflects high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio exceeding 3, indicating potential financial risk. The return on equity is negative, highlighting profitability challenges. The equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting limited financial stability. These factors point to a need for improved capital management.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
Cash flow analysis reveals a sharp decline in free cash flow growth, raising concerns about liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, indicating potential cash flow issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also weak, suggesting limited cash generation relative to earnings.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.37B1.40B1.53B1.46B1.20B994.03M
Gross Profit402.67M447.99M479.13M420.60M304.01M206.69M
EBITDA210.27M133.62M223.07M91.18M116.11M25.31M
Net Income-6.91M-20.08M68.89M-50.58M10.56M-61.65M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.66B1.67B1.65B1.65B1.59B1.48B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments47.53M79.89M88.04M59.64M61.31M62.46M
Total Debt952.09M895.16M906.95M916.32M887.23M842.61M
Total Liabilities1.37B1.37B1.34B1.38B1.32B1.22B
Stockholders Equity288.95M298.44M317.98M265.67M268.75M263.14M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.21M79.15M48.95M49.87M-6.45M34.04M
Operating Cash Flow30.74M110.82M105.63M102.17M39.12M74.17M
Investing Cash Flow-38.90M-36.54M-43.12M-85.77M-75.32M-62.70M
Financing Cash Flow-30.22M-82.43M-34.11M-18.07M35.05M2.56M

Ag Growth International Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price41.08
Price Trends
50DMA
42.17
Negative
100DMA
39.61
Positive
200DMA
40.73
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.24
Positive
RSI
44.96
Neutral
STOCH
11.73
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AFN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 41.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.79, below the 50-day MA of 42.17, and above the 200-day MA of 40.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.73 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:AFN.

Ag Growth International Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
C$1.21B11.909.99%6.06%5.52%-18.01%
73
Outperform
C$520.05M14.536.93%5.83%2.19%-48.80%
68
Neutral
C$710.95M7.0712.00%4.54%4.99%38.70%
66
Neutral
C$1.32B52.012.78%3.59%20.53%74.96%
64
Neutral
$10.73B15.747.56%2.01%2.76%-15.10%
63
Neutral
C$644.65M18.387.32%-0.87%117.78%
44
Neutral
C$767.80M26.96-2.30%1.46%-5.64%-121.91%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:AFN
Ag Growth International
41.08
-9.94
-19.48%
TSE:ALC
Algoma Central
17.40
3.88
28.70%
TSE:ARE
Aecon Group Inc.
21.16
3.27
18.28%
TSE:GDI
GDI Integrated
27.24
-8.07
-22.85%
TSE:MTL
Mullen Group
13.86
0.80
6.13%
TSE:WJX
Wajax Corporation
24.02
1.48
6.57%

Ag Growth International Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
AGI Reports Stable Q2 2025 Results and Maintains Full-Year Outlook
Neutral
Jul 31, 2025

Ag Growth International reported its second quarter 2025 results, showing stable revenue year-over-year at $349 million and adjusted EBITDA of $54 million, which is at the high end of their expectations. The company’s commercial segment showed strong performance, driven by international projects, while the farm segment faced challenges due to market conditions. AGI maintained its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance, anticipating growth in the second half of 2025, supported by a robust order book in the commercial segment. The company is also working on financial strategies to improve its balance sheet and reduce net debt leverage by the end of the year.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AFN) stock is a Buy with a C$61.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ag Growth International stock, see the TSE:AFN Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
AGI Announces Q2 2025 Results Release and Conference Call
Neutral
Jul 9, 2025

Ag Growth International Inc. (AGI) has scheduled a conference call for August 1, 2025, to discuss its second quarter results, which will be released after market close on July 31, 2025. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into AGI’s operational performance and market positioning, potentially impacting investor decisions and industry dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AFN) stock is a Buy with a C$47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ag Growth International stock, see the TSE:AFN Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
AGI Declares Q2 2025 Dividend of $0.15 Per Share
Positive
Jun 16, 2025

Ag Growth International Inc. has announced a cash dividend of $0.15 per common share for the second quarter of 2025, payable on July 15, 2025. This announcement reflects AGI’s ongoing commitment to delivering shareholder value and maintaining its position in the global food equipment and solutions market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AFN) stock is a Buy with a C$47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ag Growth International stock, see the TSE:AFN Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
AGI Expands Debenture Offering to Enhance Financial Flexibility
Positive
Jun 12, 2025

Ag Growth International Inc. announced the full exercise of the over-allotment option in its offering of convertible unsecured subordinated debentures, increasing the total offering to $97.75 million. The proceeds are intended to repay existing debt, enhancing the company’s financial flexibility for general corporate purposes. This move, supported by a syndicate of major financial institutions, is expected to strengthen AGI’s operational capabilities and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AFN) stock is a Buy with a C$47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ag Growth International stock, see the TSE:AFN Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
AGI Files Final Prospectus for $85 Million Debenture Offering
Positive
Jun 4, 2025

Ag Growth International Inc. (AGI) has announced the filing of a final short form prospectus for an $85 million offering of senior subordinated unsecured debentures, with an option for underwriters to purchase an additional $12.75 million. This move is expected to enhance AGI’s financial flexibility and support its global operations, with the offering set to close on June 9, 2025, subject to customary conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AFN) stock is a Buy with a C$47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ag Growth International stock, see the TSE:AFN Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
AGI Highlights Sustainability Achievements in 2024 Report
Positive
Jun 2, 2025

Ag Growth International Inc. (AGI) has released its 2024 Sustainability Report, highlighting significant achievements in sustainability, including a strong commitment to global food security, improved safety performance, and a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions intensity. The report outlines AGI’s progress in reducing its environmental impact, fostering a safe and inclusive culture, and maintaining high standards of governance and ethics. Key achievements include a 46% reduction in Lost Time Incident Rate, a 49% reduction in Total Recordable Incident Rate, a 16% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions intensity, and high levels of employee engagement and ethics compliance.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AFN) stock is a Buy with a C$47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ag Growth International stock, see the TSE:AFN Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
AGI Announces New Board Chair and Strategic Leadership Appointments
Positive
Jun 2, 2025

Ag Growth International Inc. (AGI) has appointed Daniel Halyk as the new Chair of the Board of Directors, succeeding Janet Giesselman. This leadership change is part of AGI’s strategic plan to enhance governance and shareholder returns, with additional appointments made to strengthen board oversight. The company is focused on executing global growth plans and delivering positive business outcomes.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AFN) stock is a Buy with a C$47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ag Growth International stock, see the TSE:AFN Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
AGI Expands Debenture Offering to $85 Million Amid Strong Demand
Positive
May 22, 2025

Ag Growth International Inc. (AGI) has announced an increase in its offering of senior subordinated unsecured debentures to $85 million due to strong demand. The proceeds from this offering are intended to repay the company’s senior operating credit lines, enhancing its financial flexibility for general corporate purposes. The debentures, which will mature in 2030, are expected to bolster AGI’s market positioning by providing additional capital resources.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AFN) stock is a Buy with a C$47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ag Growth International stock, see the TSE:AFN Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
AGI Announces $75 Million Debenture Offering and Reaffirms 2025 Outlook
Positive
May 22, 2025

Ag Growth International Inc. (AGI) has announced a $75 million offering of senior subordinated unsecured debentures, with the potential to increase to $86.25 million if the over-allotment option is fully exercised. The proceeds will be used to repay existing debt, enhancing AGI’s financial flexibility and supporting its international commercial growth strategy. This move is part of AGI’s commitment to responsible debt management and maintaining its strong market position. Additionally, AGI has reaffirmed its 2025 financial outlook, including an Adjusted EBITDA guidance of at least $225 million for the full year.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AFN) stock is a Buy with a C$47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ag Growth International stock, see the TSE:AFN Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
AGI Announces $75 Million Debenture Offering and Reaffirms 2025 Outlook
Positive
May 22, 2025

Ag Growth International (AGI) has announced a $75 million offering of senior subordinated unsecured debentures, with potential gross proceeds of $86.25 million if the over-allotment option is fully exercised. The proceeds are intended to repay existing debt, enhancing AGI’s financial flexibility to pursue growth opportunities in international markets, while maintaining its commitment to responsible debt management. The company has reaffirmed its 2025 financial outlook, including an Adjusted EBITDA guidance of at least $225 million for the full year, signaling confidence in its strategic direction and market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AFN) stock is a Buy with a C$47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ag Growth International stock, see the TSE:AFN Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
AGI Secures Shareholder Approval for All Resolutions at Annual Meeting
Positive
May 21, 2025

Ag Growth International Inc. announced the successful approval of all resolutions at its annual shareholders’ meeting, with approximately 63% of outstanding shares represented. The meeting saw the election of directors and approval of resolutions including the appointment of auditors and executive compensation strategy, indicating strong shareholder support and potentially reinforcing AGI’s strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AFN) stock is a Buy with a C$47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ag Growth International stock, see the TSE:AFN Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
AGI Announces Board Changes Ahead of AGM
Neutral
May 21, 2025

Ag Growth International Inc. announced that Janet Giesselman, the Chair of the Board of Directors, and Anne De Greef-Safft, Chair of the Human Resources and Compensation Committee, will not seek re-election at the upcoming Annual General Meeting. Seven new candidates are standing for election, and a new Chair will be selected in due course. The Board expressed gratitude for the contributions of the departing directors, highlighting their service to AGI and its shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AFN) stock is a Buy with a C$47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ag Growth International stock, see the TSE:AFN Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 04, 2025