Ag Growth Int'l Inc. (TSE:AFN)
TSX:AFN
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Ag Growth International
(TSX:AFN)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
C$23.50
▲(26.62% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (losses, negative free cash flow, and high leverage) and an earnings update that highlighted significant margin compression, cash burn, and elevated leverage despite a restructuring plan. Technicals are supportive in the short term but appear overbought, and valuation is constrained by negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Commercial / International revenue strength
Sustained commercial and international topline growth provides diversification away from cyclical on‑farm sales. Durable demand from commercial grain handlers and international projects supports backend utilization, aftermarket follow‑on work and steadier revenue mix over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
High leverage and thin equity base
Very elevated leverage constrains strategic flexibility, raises interest and covenant risk, and magnifies earnings volatility. With a thin equity cushion, adverse operating or cash setbacks could force dilutive financing or asset sales, limiting runway until cash conversion materially improves.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Commercial / International revenue strength
Sustained commercial and international topline growth provides diversification away from cyclical on‑farm sales. Durable demand from commercial grain handlers and international projects supports backend utilization, aftermarket follow‑on work and steadier revenue mix over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Ag Growth International (AFN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$473.99M
Dividend Yield2.62%
Average Volume (3M)56.24K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.94
Revenue Growth2.84%
EPS Growth-39.47%
CountryCA
Employees3,679
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAgricultural - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.86
Shares Outstanding18,809,214
10 Day Avg. Volume59,727
30 Day Avg. Volume56,245
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.50
Price to Book (P/B)1.76
Price to Sales (P/S)0.31
P/FCF Ratio-4.32
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$27.17Price Target Upside46.37% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)1.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.28B
Ag Growth International Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ag Growth International Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes grain and rice handling, storage, and conditioning equipment in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company offers storage equipment compris...
How the Company Makes Money
AFN makes money primarily by selling agricultural and bulk-handling equipment and related solutions to on-farm and commercial customers. Its core revenue streams include: (1) Equipment and systems sales: revenue from manufactured products such as ...
Ag Growth International Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call mixed modest revenue growth and international/commercial topline strength with material operational and financial setbacks. Management disclosed significant margin compression (~830 bps), a large negative free cash flow outflow (~$111M in 2025), elevated leverage (4.7x), and execution failures—notably in Brazil—while outlining a clear restructuring plan, $20M+ annualized SG&A savings, ERP termination to preserve cash, and expectation to monetize $80–$100M of receivables to improve liquidity. The initiatives are constructive but the magnitude and immediacy of the profit, cash and leverage issues indicate significant near-term risk.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth in Q4
Consolidated Q4 revenue increased 4% year-over-year to $396 million, driven by strength in the Commercial segment and international markets.
Negative Updates
Significant EBITDA and Margin Compression
Adjusted EBITDA decreased ~38% year-over-year to approximately $48.3 million in Q4; adjusted EBITDA margin compressed to 12.2%, a decline of roughly 830 basis points versus prior year.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth in Q4
Consolidated Q4 revenue increased 4% year-over-year to $396 million, driven by strength in the Commercial segment and international markets.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said Q4 revenue was $396M (+4% YoY) with adjusted EBITDA of approximately $48M (‑38% YoY) and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 12.2% (down ~830 bps); segment detail: Farm Q4 revenue $123M (‑8% YoY; Canada ‑34%, U.S. +11%, International +36%) with Farm adj. EBITDA $19.8M (‑39%, 16% margin vs 24.1% prior), and Commercial Q4 revenue $273M (+10%; international $206M, +18%) with Commercial adj. EBITDA $33M (‑39%, 12% margin vs 21.6% prior). They closed 2025 with an order book of $543M (‑26% YoY), negative free cash flow of ~$111M for 2025, net debt leverage 4.7x (vs 3.9x q/q, 3.1x y/y), and disclosed a $21M transactional expense in Q4; management expects negative FCF in Q1 but plans to monetize Brazil receivables (already $7M received, targeting $80–100M by H1) to materially improve cash flow. Near-term actions: terminate the ERP, suspend the dividend, reduce the executive team from 17 to 8 and complete North America realignment in ~30 days, drive at least $20M of annualized SG&A savings and ~$20M of cash cost avoidance over two years, incur ~ $20M of one‑time costs in H1, pause new large-scale financed projects (equipment‑only in Brazil only), refinance the dec‑maturity debenture in Q2–Q3, and target returning to historical margins (but not near‑term 18–20% levels) while pursuing a longer‑term leverage target of ~2.5x.Ag Growth International Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.42B | 1.42B | 1.40B | 1.53B | 1.46B | 1.20B |
| Gross Profit | 355.19M | 349.37M | 447.99M | 479.13M | 420.60M | 304.01M |
| EBITDA | 161.17M | 187.07M | 133.62M | 223.07M | 91.18M | 116.11M |
| Net Income | -53.84M | -26.39M | -20.08M | 68.89M | -50.58M | 10.56M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.76B | 1.71B | 1.67B | 1.65B | 1.65B | 1.59B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 30.64M | 51.01M | 79.89M | 88.04M | 59.64M | 61.31M |
| Total Debt | 1.07B | 1.01B | 895.16M | 906.95M | 916.32M | 887.23M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.51B | 1.46B | 1.37B | 1.34B | 1.38B | 1.32B |
| Stockholders Equity | 215.08M | 246.90M | 298.44M | 317.98M | 265.67M | 268.75M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -114.43M | -100.88M | 79.15M | 48.95M | 49.87M | -6.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -90.42M | -79.96M | 110.82M | 105.63M | 102.17M | 39.12M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -24.10M | -30.50M | -36.54M | -43.12M | -85.77M | -75.32M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 65.47M | 75.90M | -82.43M | -34.11M | -18.07M | 35.05M |
Ag Growth International Technical Analysis
Neutral
18.56
Price Trends
21.23
Positive
24.58
Negative
29.08
Negative
Market Momentum
1.24
Negative
59.84
Neutral
87.32
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AFN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 18.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.42, below the 50-day MA of 21.23, and below the 200-day MA of 29.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.32 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:AFN.
Ag Growth International Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | C$274.97M | 5.73 | 15.07% | 0.46% | -23.82% | -50.17% | |
70 Outperform | C$94.99M | 4.51 | 25.52% | 5.99% | -6.38% | 24.25% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | C$344.29M | 1.47 | 41.06% | 3.06% | -10.76% | 70.66% | |
54 Neutral | C$394.00M | 11.22 | 8.32% | ― | -3.64% | -37.97% | |
53 Neutral | C$523.71M | -63.76 | -14.47% | ― | 88.73% | ― | |
47 Neutral | C$473.99M | -2.02 | -20.06% | 2.62% | 2.84% | -39.47% |
* Industrials Sector Average
TSE:AFN
Ag Growth International
23.56
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-36.80%
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Ag Growth International Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
AGI Sets Q1 2026 Results Date, Confirms CFO Transition and AGM Plans
Neutral
Apr 10, 2026
Ag Growth International Inc. will release its first-quarter 2026 results after markets close on May 6, 2026, followed by a conference call and webcast on May 7 to discuss the quarter. The company will provide webcast and telephone access, with bot...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
AGI Sets June Date for AGM as New Board Targets Restructuring and Performance Gains
Neutral
Apr 1, 2026
Ag Growth International Inc. has scheduled its 2026 Annual General Meeting of shareholders for June 4, 2026, at its Winnipeg corporate office, with a record date of April 30, 2026. The proposed board slate includes five incumbent directors, with t...
Executive/Board Changes
Ag Growth International CFO to Step Down in May 2026
Neutral
Mar 31, 2026
Ag Growth International Inc., a global supplier of food infrastructure equipment and solutions, designs and manufactures systems used in the storage, transport, and processing of food commodities. With production facilities across North and South ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Ag Growth International Cuts Dividend and Restructures After Profit Squeeze
Negative
Mar 25, 2026
Ag Growth International reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $396 million, up 4% year over year, but saw adjusted EBITDA fall 38% and margins compress amid lower farm volumes, project execution issues in Brazil and operational inefficiencies in...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ag Growth International Sets Date for Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results and Investor Call
Positive
Mar 10, 2026
Ag Growth International Inc. will release its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results after markets close on March 24, 2026, followed by a conference call and webcast on March 25, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. ET. The company will also provide bo...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
AGI Brings Back Former CFO Sommerfeld to Board Amid Governance Refresh
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
Ag Growth International Inc., a global supplier of food infrastructure equipment and solutions, serves agricultural and food-processing markets through manufacturing operations in North and South America, Europe, and Asia. Its portfolio focuses on...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.