Mullen Group (MTL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$1.65B
• Dividend Yield: 5.21%
• Average Volume (3M): 177.36K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.76
• Revenue Growth: 5.53%
• EPS Growth: -21.87%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 8,070
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Trucking
• EPS (TTM): 0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 95,845,570
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 189,051
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 177,360
• PEG Ratio: -0.78
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.65
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.79
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$17.19
• Price Target Upside: -0.17% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.2
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$2.27B

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: C$18.00 ▲(4.53% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/18/26

The score is primarily held back by softer recent financial performance (margin compression, lower earnings, higher leverage, and weaker free-cash-flow trend). Offsetting factors include constructive technical positioning above key moving averages, a supportive valuation profile with ~5% dividend yield, and cautiously positive 2026 growth guidance that is partly acquisition-led amid ongoing pricing and demand uncertainty.

Positive Factors

Diversified service portfolio (LTL + 3PL & warehousing)

A broad mix across LTL, specialized freight, third-party logistics and warehousing creates durable revenue diversification and margin optionality. Higher-margin 3PL/warehousing exposure can offset cyclical truckload volatility, supporting steadier cash flows and customer stickiness over multiple cycles.

Material scale and multi-year revenue growth

Meaningful revenue scale increases operating leverage, expands route and client networks, and enhances procurement and pricing leverage. Scale supports national coverage, cross-selling between business units, and provides a base for accretive tuck-ins and efficiency gains as integration and standardization progress.

Positive cash generation and balance-sheet capacity for M&A

Consistent positive operating and free cash flow provides internal funding for capital needs and targeted acquisitions without immediate equity raises. Coupled with management’s stated stronger balance-sheet posture, this underpins a sustainable M&A strategy to fill service gaps and drive scale when organic demand is weak.

Negative Factors

Rising leverage limits financial flexibility

Higher absolute debt and a rising debt-to-equity ratio reduce resilience to demand downturns and elevate interest expense sensitivity. This constrains capital allocation flexibility, increases refinancing risk in stress scenarios, and magnifies the execution risk of using leverage to fund further acquisitions.

Margin compression and lower profitability

Worsening margins and declining net income indicate sustained pricing pressure or mix shifts toward lower-margin work. If structural, this reduces retained earnings, limits reinvestment capacity and dividend sustainability, and requires consistent operational improvement or higher-margin business mix to restore long-term profitability.

Reliance on acquisitions for near-term growth

Heavy dependence on acquisitions to meet guidance increases execution and integration risk, can raise leverage, and masks weak organic demand. Long-term value depends on disciplined deal returns and successful integration; failure to convert acquisition-driven revenue into sustainable margin expansion is a structural risk.

Mullen Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mullen Group Ltd. provides a range of trucking and logistics services in Canada and the United States. The company operates in four segments: Less-Than-Truckload, Logistics & Warehousing, Specialized & Industrial Services, and U.S. & International Logistics. The Less-Than-Truckload segment delivers general freight consisting of smaller shipments, packages, and parcels; and pharmaceutical and package products. The Logistics & Warehousing segment offers multimode transportation services, such as full truckload, specialized trucking, intermodal, and transload to customers through a network of terminals and transload facilities; and warehousing and distribution services. The Specialized & Industrial Services segment provides production services, such as well servicing, production fluid transportation, transportation of fluids for disposal, frac support, hydrovac excavation, and industrial cleaning and turnaround services; and specialized services comprising dredging and dewatering services, large diameter pipe stockpiling and stringing services, water management, environmental services, civil construction, municipal development and emergency services, hydrostatic testing services to the pipeline industry and midstream sector, and transporting of oversize and overweight shipments, as well as deals in original equipment manufacturer parts and services. This segment also offers drilling and drilling related services, consisting of transportation, handling, and storage of oilfield fluids, tubulars, and drilling mud; drilling rig relocation; general oilfield hauling; well disposal facility; core drilling; setting surface casing; and conductor pipe setting services. The U.S. & International Logistics segment provides logistics services through professional representatives and station agents. This segment also owns SilverExpress, a proprietary integrated transportation management platform. Mullen Group Ltd. was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Okotoks, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Mullen Group generates revenue primarily through its comprehensive logistics and transportation services. The company earns money by charging fees for freight transportation, which includes the movement of goods via truck and rail. Key revenue streams include long-haul trucking, specialized transportation for heavy equipment, and logistics services that encompass warehousing and distribution. Additionally, Mullen Group benefits from contracts with major clients in the oil and gas industry, which often require reliable and efficient transportation solutions. The company also leverages partnerships with other logistics providers and clients to enhance its service offerings, thereby increasing its market reach and financial performance.

Mullen Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Scale and profitability remain solid with positive operating cash flow (C$254M) and free cash flow (C$158M) in 2025, but fundamentals softened: margin compression and lower net income (C$91M vs C$112M) alongside higher leverage (debt ~C$1.27B; debt-to-equity ~1.12) and a sharp drop in free cash flow year over year.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown meaningfully since 2020 (from ~C$1.16B to ~C$2.13B in 2025), but the most recent year shows modest growth and softer profitability. 2025 margins compressed versus 2024 (gross margin ~23.1% vs ~23.8%; net margin ~4.3% vs ~5.6%), and net income declined (C$91M vs C$112M), suggesting weaker pricing, mix, or cost pressure. Profitability remains positive with solid EBITDA margins (~15%+), but the downtrend over the last two years is a key watch item.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows rising leverage: debt increased to ~C$1.27B in 2025 from ~C$1.00B in 2024, pushing debt-to-equity to ~1.12 (up from ~0.98). Equity has grown, but not as fast as debt, which reduces financial flexibility if trucking demand weakens. Total assets have expanded (to ~C$2.57B), yet the higher leverage profile is the main constraint on balance-sheet quality.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains healthy with positive operating cash flow (C$254M in 2025) and free cash flow (C$158M). However, free cash flow fell sharply in 2025 (down ~34% year over year), and free cash flow was only about 62% of net income, pointing to weaker cash conversion than prior years. Operating cash flow was roughly in line with net income in 2025, but the year-to-year volatility in cash flow is a notable risk factor.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.13B	1.99B	1.99B	2.00B	1.48B
Gross Profit	493.57M	472.68M	473.88M	459.00M	308.08M
EBITDA	324.64M	332.98M	334.63M	350.31M	239.13M
Net Income	91.11M	112.26M	136.72M	158.62M	72.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.57B	2.33B	2.04B	2.00B	1.92B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	144.64M	126.29M	2.29M	8.76M	37.91M
Total Debt	1.27B	997.56M	764.08M	712.28M	745.32M
Total Liabilities	1.43B	1.32B	1.07B	1.02B	1.03B
Stockholders Equity	1.14B	1.02B	974.88M	973.40M	888.66M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	158.20M	224.55M	175.15M	181.56M	129.76M
Operating Cash Flow	254.01M	296.12M	276.75M	262.97M	197.97M
Investing Cash Flow	-258.40M	-111.90M	-111.84M	-36.99M	-255.59M
Financing Cash Flow	15.18M	-51.61M	-138.67M	-215.14M	-46.28M

Mullen Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 17.22
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MTL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.07, above the 50-day MA of 16.52, and above the 200-day MA of 14.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:MTL.

Mullen Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WJX	69 Neutral	C$737.82M	15.85	8.84%	5.09%	3.71%	-12.70%
TFII	65 Neutral	C$13.31B	31.02	11.61%	1.75%	-0.25%	-28.71%
ARE	65 Neutral	C$2.44B	291.42	0.92%	2.38%	25.68%	―
RUS	65 Neutral	$2.66B	16.05	10.04%	3.88%	8.15%	-3.57%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
MTL	61 Neutral	C$1.65B	16.69	9.33%	5.21%	5.53%	-21.87%
CJT	59 Neutral	C$1.40B	17.76	16.75%	1.67%	7.71%	3170.43%

Mullen Group Corporate Events

Mullen Group Lifts Revenue on Acquisitions but Margins Squeezed in Soft 2025 Economy

Mullen Group reported record fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $533.8 million, up 7 percent year over year, driven entirely by contributions from recent acquisitions such as Cole International Inc. and Pacific Northwest Moving, which offset weaker results from existing business units amid a soft Canadian economy and declining private-sector capital investment. Despite higher annual revenue of $2.13 billion for 2025, operating income before depreciation and amortization and adjusted earnings declined, reflecting margin pressure from subdued demand and downward rate pressure, though management highlighted its strong balance sheet, diversified portfolio and expanded network as positioning the company to benefit when economic conditions improve.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MTL) stock is a Hold with a C$18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mullen Group stock, see the TSE:MTL Stock Forecast page.

Mullen Group Declares Monthly Dividend of $0.07 per Share

Mullen Group Ltd. has declared a monthly dividend of $0.07 per common share, payable on February 17, 2026, to shareholders of record as of January 31, 2026. The dividend, designated as an eligible dividend for Canadian tax purposes, underscores the company’s ongoing commitment to returning capital to shareholders and may be viewed as a sign of confidence in the stability of its operations across its broad North American transportation and logistics portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MTL) stock is a Hold with a C$18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mullen Group stock, see the TSE:MTL Stock Forecast page.

Mullen Group Targets Record 2026 After Navigating Tough 2025

Mullen Group Ltd. has approved a 2026 business plan that targets record performance, underpinned by expected contributions from 2025 acquisitions, tightening supply-demand dynamics in the trucking sector, anticipated modest growth in the Canadian economy, and potential upside from large-scale resource and nation-building projects. For 2026, the company is aiming for consolidated revenues of $2.3–$2.4 billion and adjusted operating income before depreciation and amortization of $365 million, supported by capital expenditures of $85 million across its core segments and ongoing cost discipline and technology investments. Management characterizes 2025 as a difficult year marked by trade disputes, stalled private-sector capital spending, flat Canadian economic growth and competitive freight markets, yet the company still expects to report roughly $2.1 billion in revenue and about $323 million in adjusted OIBDA, largely sustained by strategic acquisitions, signaling resilience and positioning it for stronger results in 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MTL) stock is a Hold with a C$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mullen Group stock, see the TSE:MTL Stock Forecast page.

Mullen Group Sets February 12 Date for 2025 Year-End Results and Investor Call

Mullen Group Ltd. announced it will release its 2025 year-end and fourth-quarter financial results on February 12, 2026, before markets open, followed by a same-day conference call and webcast for investors. The planned disclosure and investor event underscore the company’s efforts to maintain transparency with the market and provide stakeholders with timely insight into its performance across its diversified transportation, logistics and industrial services operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MTL) stock is a Hold with a C$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mullen Group stock, see the TSE:MTL Stock Forecast page.

Mullen Group Declares $0.07 Monthly Dividend for January 2026

Mullen Group Ltd. has declared a monthly dividend of $0.07 per common share, payable on January 15, 2026 to shareholders of record as of December 31, 2025. The dividend has been designated as an eligible dividend for Canadian tax purposes, reinforcing the company’s ongoing capital return strategy and providing a tax-efficient income stream for Canadian resident shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MTL) stock is a Buy with a C$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mullen Group stock, see the TSE:MTL Stock Forecast page.

Mullen Group Completes Debenture Redemption Ahead of Schedule

Mullen Group Ltd. has completed the redemption of its 5.75% convertible unsecured subordinated debentures, initially due in November 2026, on December 1, 2025. This move involved converting a significant portion of the debentures into common shares and redeeming the remaining debentures, which led to their delisting from the Toronto Stock Exchange. This strategic financial maneuver is likely to impact the company’s financial structure and market operations, potentially influencing stakeholder interests and the company’s positioning within the industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MTL) stock is a Buy with a C$16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mullen Group stock, see the TSE:MTL Stock Forecast page.

Mullen Group Declares Monthly Dividend for Shareholders

Mullen Group Ltd. has announced a monthly dividend of $0.07 per common share, payable to shareholders on December 15, 2025, with a record date of November 30, 2025. This dividend is designated as an ‘eligible dividend’ for Canadian tax purposes, potentially benefiting shareholders through enhanced tax credits. The announcement underscores Mullen Group’s commitment to providing shareholder value and reflects its stable financial position within the logistics and transportation sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MTL) stock is a Buy with a C$16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mullen Group stock, see the TSE:MTL Stock Forecast page.