Mullen Group Ltd. (TSE:MTL)
TSX:MTL
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Mullen Group
(TSX:MTL)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
C$23.00
▲(25.89% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/23/26
The score is driven mainly by steady but weakening financial performance: positive free cash flow and solid baseline margins are offset by a multi-year decline in profitability/returns, only moderate cash conversion, and meaningful leverage for a cyclical trucking business. Technicals are supportive with a strong uptrend, but near-overbought signals temper the outlook. Valuation is reasonable with a supportive dividend yield, but not clearly cheap relative to the recent margin step-down.
Positive Factors
Healthy cash generation
Consistent positive OCF (~$264M) and FCF (~$169M) provide durable internal funding for capex, dividends, and deleveraging. Over a 2–6 month horizon this supports operational stability, strategic flexibility and a buffer against freight cyclicality despite recent modest declines.
Negative Factors
Multi-year profitability decline
A pronounced drop in net margin from ~7.9% to ~4.3% signals weakening return on operations and capital. If driven by structural cost pressures or adverse mix, this trend can persist, limiting free cash flow, shareholder returns and reinvestment capacity absent sustainable margin recovery.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Healthy cash generation
Consistent positive OCF (~$264M) and FCF (~$169M) provide durable internal funding for capex, dividends, and deleveraging. Over a 2–6 month horizon this supports operational stability, strategic flexibility and a buffer against freight cyclicality despite recent modest declines.
Read all positive factors
Mullen Group (MTL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$2.24B
Dividend Yield5.21%
Average Volume (3M)177.36K
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.7
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth7.92%
EPS Growth-14.19%
CountryCA
Employees8,070
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryTrucking
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.05
Shares Outstanding95,911,575
10 Day Avg. Volume189,051
30 Day Avg. Volume177,360
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.78
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)0.65
P/FCF Ratio8.79
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$21.67Price Target Upside18.59% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)1.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$2.31B
Mullen Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mullen Group Ltd., established in 1949 and based in Okotoks, Canada, operates as a prominent provider of trucking and comprehensive logistics solutions throughout Canada and the United States. Its diverse operations are categorized into four main ...
How the Company Makes Money
Mullen Group makes money primarily by charging customers for transportation and logistics services delivered by its operating businesses. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Freight transportation revenue: payments for moving goods via truc...
Mullen Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced operational and strategic positives—record revenues, completed acquisitions (including full ownership of Thrive), CapEx investments, and a stronger balance sheet positioned for further M&A—against notable near-term headwinds: 2025 showed little to no organic growth, pricing pressures across segments, weak Canadian market demand and limited capacity tightening, and reliance on acquisitions to drive 2026 growth. Management expressed cautious optimism for U.S. spot market improvements and for 2026 growth tied to acquisitions and select segment recoveries, but emphasized short-term uncertainty and the need for market recovery to realize stronger earnings.Positive Updates
Record Revenues Achieved
Management reported that 2025 resulted in record revenues for the company, driven in part by acquisitions completed during the year (no absolute dollar figures disclosed).
Negative Updates
2025 Challenging with No Organic Growth and Pricing Pressure
Management repeatedly described 2025 as 'challenging across all four segments' with essentially no organic growth and pricing under pressure; downward pricing trends pressured margins and required tightening actions across business units.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenues Achieved
Management reported that 2025 resulted in record revenues for the company, driven in part by acquisitions completed during the year (no absolute dollar figures disclosed).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company’s 2026 guidance centers on roughly 10% top‑line growth (analyst estimate referenced on the call), with management noting about 400 basis points of that target coming from recent acquisitions and the remainder (~6 percentage points) from same‑store performance and market recovery; segment-level expectations are LTL relatively flat year‑over‑year, Logistics & Warehousing up (helped by timing from the Cole acquisition), Specialized showing slight growth (after late‑2025 CapEx in Envolve Energy to boost disposal capacity), S&I positive (benefiting from two S&I acquisitions completed and mining/turnaround work), and U.S. 3PL growth tied to acquisition timing—management highlighted they moved from 42 to 44 operating business units, completed two acquisitions (plus taking Thrive to 100% ownership), released a 120‑page condensed annual review and 60‑page AIF, expect the U.S. market to show capacity tightening sooner than Canada, see March as the more telling month for demand recovery, and plan to use a strengthened balance sheet for further targeted M&A to drive growth until market rates firm.Mullen Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.18B | 2.13B | 1.99B | 1.99B | 2.00B | 1.48B |
| Gross Profit | 505.35M | 493.57M | 472.68M | 473.88M | 459.00M | 308.08M |
| EBITDA | 327.63M | 324.64M | 332.98M | 334.63M | 350.31M | 239.13M |
| Net Income | 94.43M | 91.11M | 112.26M | 136.72M | 158.62M | 72.44M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.59B | 2.57B | 2.33B | 2.04B | 2.00B | 1.92B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 141.75M | 144.64M | 126.29M | 2.29M | 8.76M | 37.91M |
| Total Debt | 1.05B | 1.27B | 997.56M | 764.08M | 712.28M | 745.32M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.45B | 1.43B | 1.32B | 1.07B | 1.02B | 1.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.15B | 1.14B | 1.02B | 974.88M | 973.40M | 888.66M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 169.40M | 158.20M | 224.55M | 175.15M | 181.56M | 129.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 263.60M | 254.01M | 296.12M | 276.75M | 262.97M | 197.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -269.21M | -258.40M | -111.90M | -111.84M | -36.99M | -255.59M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 11.01M | 15.18M | -51.61M | -138.67M | -215.14M | -46.28M |
Mullen Group Technical Analysis
Positive
18.27
Price Trends
19.96
Positive
18.27
Positive
16.22
Positive
Market Momentum
0.75
Negative
84.82
Negative
96.49
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MTL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.77, below the 50-day MA of 19.96, and above the 200-day MA of 16.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.75 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 84.82 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.49 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:MTL.
Mullen Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | C$3.46B | 17.55 | 12.22% | 3.88% | 11.72% | 33.83% | |
67 Neutral | C$662.08M | 10.73 | 11.63% | 5.09% | -3.59% | 50.73% | |
64 Neutral | C$2.24B | 23.71 | 8.72% | 5.21% | 7.92% | -14.19% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
58 Neutral | C$18.73B | 41.20 | 11.18% | 1.75% | -7.84% | -21.07% | |
58 Neutral | C$3.08B | 82.34 | 3.71% | 2.38% | 26.30% | ― | |
55 Neutral | C$1.23B | 33.54 | 4.92% | 1.67% | -2.16% | -69.46% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Mullen Group
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Mullen Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mullen Group Sets April 23 Date for First-Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Call
Neutral
Apr 1, 2026
Mullen Group Ltd., a major Canadian transportation and logistics consolidator with one of North America’s largest portfolios of logistics companies, plans to release its 2026 first-quarter earnings results on April 23. The group, which also ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Mullen Group Declares Monthly Dividend as Logistics Portfolio Supports Payout
Positive
Mar 20, 2026
Mullen Group Ltd., a major Canadian transportation and logistics consolidator listed on the TSX under the symbol MTL, operates an extensive network of independently run businesses that provide freight, warehousing, distribution and specialized ind...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.