Mullen Group Ltd. (TSE:MTL)
TSX:MTL
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Mullen Group
(TSX:MTL)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
C$18.00
â–²(7.46% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/18/26
The score is primarily held back by softer recent financial performance (margin compression, lower earnings, higher leverage, and weaker free-cash-flow trend). Offsetting factors include constructive technical positioning above key moving averages, a supportive valuation profile with ~5% dividend yield, and cautiously positive 2026 growth guidance that is partly acquisition-led amid ongoing pricing and demand uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Diversified service portfolio (LTL + 3PL & warehousing)
A broad mix across LTL, specialized freight, third-party logistics and warehousing creates durable revenue diversification and margin optionality. Higher-margin 3PL/warehousing exposure can offset cyclical truckload volatility, supporting steadier cash flows and customer stickiness over multiple cycles.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage limits financial flexibility
Higher absolute debt and a rising debt-to-equity ratio reduce resilience to demand downturns and elevate interest expense sensitivity. This constrains capital allocation flexibility, increases refinancing risk in stress scenarios, and magnifies the execution risk of using leverage to fund further acquisitions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified service portfolio (LTL + 3PL & warehousing)
A broad mix across LTL, specialized freight, third-party logistics and warehousing creates durable revenue diversification and margin optionality. Higher-margin 3PL/warehousing exposure can offset cyclical truckload volatility, supporting steadier cash flows and customer stickiness over multiple cycles.
Read all positive factors
Mullen Group (MTL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$1.61B
Dividend Yield5.21%
Average Volume (3M)177.36K
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.5
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth5.53%
EPS Growth-21.87%
CountryCA
Employees8,070
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryTrucking
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.16
Shares Outstanding95,845,570
10 Day Avg. Volume189,051
30 Day Avg. Volume177,360
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.78
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)0.65
P/FCF Ratio8.79
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$17.38Price Target Upside3.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$2.27B
Mullen Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mullen Group Ltd. provides a range of trucking and logistics services in Canada and the United States. The company operates in four segments: Less-Than-Truckload, Logistics & Warehousing, Specialized & Industrial Services, and U.S. & International...
How the Company Makes Money
Mullen Group generates revenue primarily through its comprehensive logistics and transportation services. The company earns money by charging fees for freight transportation, which includes the movement of goods via truck and rail. Key revenue str...
Mullen Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced operational and strategic positives—record revenues, completed acquisitions (including full ownership of Thrive), CapEx investments, and a stronger balance sheet positioned for further M&A—against notable near-term headwinds: 2025 showed little to no organic growth, pricing pressures across segments, weak Canadian market demand and limited capacity tightening, and reliance on acquisitions to drive 2026 growth. Management expressed cautious optimism for U.S. spot market improvements and for 2026 growth tied to acquisitions and select segment recoveries, but emphasized short-term uncertainty and the need for market recovery to realize stronger earnings.Positive Updates
Record Revenues Achieved
Management reported that 2025 resulted in record revenues for the company, driven in part by acquisitions completed during the year (no absolute dollar figures disclosed).
Negative Updates
2025 Challenging with No Organic Growth and Pricing Pressure
Management repeatedly described 2025 as 'challenging across all four segments' with essentially no organic growth and pricing under pressure; downward pricing trends pressured margins and required tightening actions across business units.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenues Achieved
Management reported that 2025 resulted in record revenues for the company, driven in part by acquisitions completed during the year (no absolute dollar figures disclosed).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company’s 2026 guidance centers on roughly 10% top‑line growth (analyst estimate referenced on the call), with management noting about 400 basis points of that target coming from recent acquisitions and the remainder (~6 percentage points) from same‑store performance and market recovery; segment-level expectations are LTL relatively flat year‑over‑year, Logistics & Warehousing up (helped by timing from the Cole acquisition), Specialized showing slight growth (after late‑2025 CapEx in Envolve Energy to boost disposal capacity), S&I positive (benefiting from two S&I acquisitions completed and mining/turnaround work), and U.S. 3PL growth tied to acquisition timing—management highlighted they moved from 42 to 44 operating business units, completed two acquisitions (plus taking Thrive to 100% ownership), released a 120‑page condensed annual review and 60‑page AIF, expect the U.S. market to show capacity tightening sooner than Canada, see March as the more telling month for demand recovery, and plan to use a strengthened balance sheet for further targeted M&A to drive growth until market rates firm.Mullen Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.13B | 1.99B | 1.99B | 2.00B | 1.48B |
| Gross Profit | 493.57M | 472.68M | 473.88M | 459.00M | 308.08M |
| EBITDA | 324.64M | 332.98M | 334.63M | 350.31M | 239.13M |
| Net Income | 91.11M | 112.26M | 136.72M | 158.62M | 72.44M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.57B | 2.33B | 2.04B | 2.00B | 1.92B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 144.64M | 126.29M | 2.29M | 8.76M | 37.91M |
| Total Debt | 1.27B | 997.56M | 764.08M | 712.28M | 745.32M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.43B | 1.32B | 1.07B | 1.02B | 1.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.14B | 1.02B | 974.88M | 973.40M | 888.66M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 158.20M | 224.55M | 175.15M | 181.56M | 129.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 254.01M | 296.12M | 276.75M | 262.97M | 197.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -258.40M | -111.90M | -111.84M | -36.99M | -255.59M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 15.18M | -51.61M | -138.67M | -215.14M | -46.28M |
Mullen Group Technical Analysis
Positive
16.75
Price Trends
16.77
Negative
15.91
Positive
14.71
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.03
Negative
50.87
Neutral
73.83
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MTL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.70, below the 50-day MA of 16.77, and above the 200-day MA of 14.71, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:MTL.
Mullen Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | C$2.68B | 130.21 | 1.66% | 2.38% | 25.68% | ― | |
66 Neutral | C$686.92M | 10.32 | 10.91% | 5.09% | 3.71% | -12.70% | |
66 Neutral | C$2.60B | 14.57 | 10.04% | 3.88% | 8.15% | -3.57% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | C$11.95B | 27.16 | 11.65% | 1.75% | -0.25% | -28.71% | |
61 Neutral | C$1.61B | 24.51 | 9.33% | 5.21% | 5.53% | -21.87% | |
52 Neutral | C$1.21B | 16.01 | 10.73% | 1.67% | 7.71% | 3170.43% |
* Industrials Sector Average
TSE:MTL
Mullen Group
16.75
4.90
41.30%
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Mullen Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mullen Group Lifts Revenue on Acquisitions but Margins Squeezed in Soft 2025 Economy
Negative
Feb 12, 2026
Mullen Group reported record fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $533.8 million, up 7 percent year over year, driven entirely by contributions from recent acquisitions such as Cole International Inc. and Pacific Northwest Moving, which offset weaker re...
Dividends
Mullen Group Declares Monthly Dividend of $0.07 per Share
Positive
Jan 22, 2026
Mullen Group Ltd. has declared a monthly dividend of $0.07 per common share, payable on February 17, 2026, to shareholders of record as of January 31, 2026. The dividend, designated as an eligible dividend for Canadian tax purposes, underscores th...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mullen Group Targets Record 2026 After Navigating Tough 2025
Positive
Jan 19, 2026
Mullen Group Ltd. has approved a 2026 business plan that targets record performance, underpinned by expected contributions from 2025 acquisitions, tightening supply-demand dynamics in the trucking sector, anticipated modest growth in the Canadian ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mullen Group Sets February 12 Date for 2025 Year-End Results and Investor Call
Neutral
Jan 12, 2026
Mullen Group Ltd. announced it will release its 2025 year-end and fourth-quarter financial results on February 12, 2026, before markets open, followed by a same-day conference call and webcast for investors. The planned disclosure and investor eve...
Dividends
Mullen Group Declares $0.07 Monthly Dividend for January 2026
Positive
Dec 18, 2025
Mullen Group Ltd. has declared a monthly dividend of $0.07 per common share, payable on January 15, 2026 to shareholders of record as of December 31, 2025. The dividend has been designated as an eligible dividend for Canadian tax purposes, reinfor...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
Mullen Group Completes Debenture Redemption Ahead of Schedule
Neutral
Dec 2, 2025
Mullen Group Ltd. has completed the redemption of its 5.75% convertible unsecured subordinated debentures, initially due in November 2026, on December 1, 2025. This move involved converting a significant portion of the debentures into common share...
Dividends
Mullen Group Declares Monthly Dividend for Shareholders
Positive
Nov 21, 2025
Mullen Group Ltd. has announced a monthly dividend of $0.07 per common share, payable to shareholders on December 15, 2025, with a record date of November 30, 2025. This dividend is designated as an ‘eligible dividend’ for Canadian tax...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.