Want to see TSE:MTL full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Mullen Group
(TSX:MTL)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
C$31.00
▲(69.68% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/25/26
The score is anchored by stable financials with strong free cash flow, tempered by leverage near 1.0x debt-to-equity and margin compression versus prior years. Technicals show a strong uptrend but very overbought momentum (RSI ~85, Stoch ~95), which adds near-term risk. Valuation is a headwind given a ~25x P/E despite a ~2.9% yield. The earnings call was a net positive on margin execution and reiterated guidance, though upside depends on large project timing and elevated CapEx.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Solid operating and free cash flow support fleet investment, debt servicing and shareholder returns. Improved free cash flow also indicates that the asset-intensive transport model can convert earnings into useful internal funding.
Negative Factors
Margin Compression
Lower margins versus prior years indicate that profitability has not fully recovered across the portfolio. Persistent cost pressure, weaker freight conditions or limited pricing power could constrain earnings growth even if revenue remains stable.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Solid operating and free cash flow support fleet investment, debt servicing and shareholder returns. Improved free cash flow also indicates that the asset-intensive transport model can convert earnings into useful internal funding.
Read all positive factors
Mullen Group (MTL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$2.55B
Dividend Yield3.2%
Average Volume (3M)177.36K
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.5
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth8.87%
EPS Growth-1.05%
CountryCA
Employees8,622
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryTrucking
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.13
Shares Outstanding96,241,060
10 Day Avg. Volume189,051
30 Day Avg. Volume177,360
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.78
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)0.65
P/FCF Ratio8.79
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$30.20Price Target Upside65.30% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$2.32B
Mullen Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mullen Group Ltd., established in 1949 and based in Okotoks, Canada, operates as a prominent provider of trucking and comprehensive logistics solutions throughout Canada and the United States. Its diverse operations are categorized into four main ...
How the Company Makes Money
Mullen Group makes money primarily by charging customers for transportation and logistics services delivered by its operating businesses. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Freight transportation revenue: payments for moving goods via truc...
Mullen Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a cautiously optimistic tone. Highlights include a strong LTL margin performance (20.2% in Q2 vs 17% budget), successful fuel surcharge pass-through, an increased $50M CapEx program to secure scarce equipment, and a potentially large Alaska LNG opportunity (estimated $250M–$500M of activity). Management emphasized discipline (margin first, growth second), redeployable assets, and a focused tuck-in M&A strategy. Offsetting risks include a non-robust Canadian economy, S&I not yet showing quarter-over-quarter growth, dependency on large projects that face political and timing uncertainty, continued fuel price volatility, and supply constraints that necessitate upfront CapEx. On balance, positive operational momentum and strategic positioning for large projects outweigh the uncertainties discussed.Positive Updates
LTL Margin Expansion
LTL EBITDA margin reached 20.2% in Q2 (management noted this as a high point), versus the fiscal 2026 budgeted margin of ~17% — an improvement of ~3.2 percentage points. Management expects to maintain or improve this margin through de-marketing low-paying freight, cost recovery (notably full fuel surcharge pass-through) and operational discipline.
Negative Updates
Canadian Economy Not Robust
Management described the Canadian economy as 'reasonably well' but not robust or growing — demand is largely in balance and not expanding meaningfully, limiting broad-based pricing power and organic volume growth.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
LTL Margin Expansion
LTL EBITDA margin reached 20.2% in Q2 (management noted this as a high point), versus the fiscal 2026 budgeted margin of ~17% — an improvement of ~3.2 percentage points. Management expects to maintain or improve this margin through de-marketing low-paying freight, cost recovery (notably full fuel surcharge pass-through) and operational discipline.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated a “margin first, growth second” posture while keeping its annual revenue guide at $2.3–$2.4 billion and its initial EBITDA target of $365 million, noting the business is trending ahead of the original budget and could exceed guidance if nation‑building projects materialize; management is increasing 2026 CapEx by about $50 million (deploying the 85 Class‑8 trucks originally budgeted and discussing ~100 trucks for Alaska), will review budgets in Oct/Nov, and expects project‑driven volume upside in 2027 (Alaska LNG work scoped roughly US$250–$500 million total, with a minimum commitment near $250 million); key near‑term metrics include Q2 LTL EBITDA margin ~20.2% (vs. a 17% LTL budget for FY26) and a 2026 S&I revenue budget of ~$450 million (historical peak ~ $900 million), with ongoing de‑marketing of low‑paying freight and full fuel surcharge recovery supporting margin improvement.Mullen Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.25B | 2.13B | 1.99B | 1.99B | 2.00B | 1.48B |
| Gross Profit | 525.65M | 493.57M | 472.68M | 473.88M | 459.00M | 308.08M |
| EBITDA | 348.43M | 324.64M | 332.98M | 334.63M | 350.31M | 239.13M |
| Net Income | 104.81M | 91.11M | 112.26M | 136.72M | 158.62M | 72.44M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.62B | 2.57B | 2.33B | 2.04B | 2.00B | 1.92B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 171.02M | 144.64M | 126.29M | 2.29M | 8.76M | 37.91M |
| Total Debt | 1.05B | 1.05B | 997.56M | 764.08M | 712.28M | 745.32M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.45B | 1.43B | 1.32B | 1.07B | 1.02B | 1.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.17B | 1.14B | 1.02B | 974.88M | 973.40M | 888.66M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 171.69M | 158.20M | 224.55M | 175.15M | 181.56M | 129.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 259.15M | 254.01M | 296.12M | 276.75M | 262.97M | 197.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -99.10M | -258.40M | -111.90M | -111.84M | -36.99M | -255.59M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -159.38M | 15.18M | -51.61M | -138.67M | -215.14M | -46.28M |
Mullen Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
18.27
Price Trends
24.28
Positive
21.99
Positive
18.79
Positive
Market Momentum
0.60
Positive
52.92
Neutral
21.70
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MTL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 18.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.95, below the 50-day MA of 24.28, and below the 200-day MA of 18.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.60 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:MTL.
Mullen Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | C$4.39B | 20.47 | 13.09% | 2.45% | 18.28% | 35.28% | |
64 Neutral | C$660.35M | 10.10 | 12.07% | 4.04% | -4.10% | 82.03% | |
63 Neutral | C$2.55B | 23.45 | 9.35% | 5.21% | 8.87% | -1.05% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | C$1.32B | 28.65 | 6.30% | 1.72% | 0.80% | -66.47% | |
60 Neutral | C$16.62B | 33.06 | 12.39% | 1.22% | -2.61% | -6.43% | |
60 Neutral | C$3.24B | -51.98 | -6.76% | 1.52% | 21.48% | -323.81% |
* Industrials Sector Average
TSE:MTL
Mullen Group
26.23
13.30
102.91%
TSE:TFII
TFI International
195.79
72.62
58.96%
TSE:ARE
Aecon Group Inc.
47.23
27.66
141.29%
TSE:WJX
Wajax Corporation
30.03
8.15
37.24%
TSE:RUS
Russel Metals
77.73
38.31
97.19%
TSE:CJT
Cargojet
88.78
-12.06
-11.96%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.