Algoma Central (ALC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$889.65M
• Dividend Yield: 4.27%
• Average Volume (3M): 8.47K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 4.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.51
• Revenue Growth: 8.54%
• EPS Growth: 33.89%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,600
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Marine Shipping
• EPS (TTM): 2.32
• Shares Outstanding: 40,567,818
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,142
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,473
• PEG Ratio: 2.90
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.66
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.84
• P/FCF Ratio: -58.05
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.97
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$761.90M

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: C$24.50 ▲(29.02% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

The score is driven primarily by attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield) and a strong uptrend versus key moving averages. Offsetting these positives, financial quality is constrained by deeply negative recent free cash flow and weaker cash conversion, with elevated momentum indicators also suggesting higher near-term pullback risk.

Positive Factors

Revenue & Profitability Rebound

A large TTM revenue rebound coupled with mid-teens net margins and ~23% EBITDA indicates the core shipping business can deliver profitable operations when freight markets recover. This supports durable earnings power across cycles and funds maintenance of fleet and contractual obligations over the next 2–6 months.

Manageable Leverage

Sub-1.0x debt-to-equity gives the company balance-sheet flexibility versus more highly leveraged peers. Moderate leverage supports access to capital for vessel investment or seasonal working-capital swings and reduces refinancing risk over the medium term while returns on equity run in the 10–12% range.

Historically Positive Operating Cash Flow

Consistent positive operating cash flow across multiple years shows the fleet business can generate cash in favorable cycles. Past strong free cash flow demonstrates structural cash-generation capability that can support capex, dividend policy and debt repayment when market conditions normalize.

Negative Factors

Deep Negative Free Cash Flow TTM

Material negative free cash flow in the trailing twelve months signals that current cash generation is not covering investment and financing needs. Persistently negative FCF can constrain capital allocation, limit ability to de-lever, and pressure liquidity if weak freight conditions persist over the coming months.

Weak Cash Conversion

When operating cash covers under half of reported net income, earnings quality and liquidity are strained; accruals or working-capital swings may be inflating accounting profits. This gap raises risk that earnings will not translate into available cash to fund dividends, capex or debt service in the near term.

Cyclical Operating Profitability

Shipping demand and Great Lakes seasonality drive pronounced revenue and margin swings. Volatile operating profitability reduces predictability of earnings and cash flow, complicating long-term planning, budgeting and investment decisions for the next several months if freight markets swing back.

Algoma Central Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Algoma Central Corporation owns and operates a fleet of dry and liquid bulk carriers on the Great Lakes - St. Lawrence Waterway in Canada. The company operates in six segments: Domestic Dry-Bulk, Product Tankers, Ocean Self-Unloaders, Global Short Sea Shipping, Investment Properties, and Corporate. It operates self-unloading bulk carriers; and owns and manages tankers for the transportation of liquid petroleum products throughout the Great Lakes, the St. Lawrence waterway, and the Atlantic Canada regions. The company also owns eight ocean-going self-unloading vessels that carry coal for power generation, crushed aggregates for construction, gypsum for wallboard manufacturing, iron ore for the steel industry, and salt for winter road safety. In addition, it provides management services to third parties, as well as owns a shopping center. It serves iron and steel, aggregate, cement and building material, and salt producers; agricultural product distributors; and oil refiners, wholesale distributors, and large consumers of petroleum products. The company was formerly known as Algoma Central Railway and changed its name to Algoma Central Corporation in 1990. Algoma Central Corporation was incorporated in 1899 and is headquartered in St. Catharines, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Algoma Central generates revenue primarily through its shipping operations, which include the transportation of bulk commodities for various industries. The company operates a fleet of self-unloading vessels, which allows it to efficiently transport cargo and reduce operational costs. Key revenue streams include freight charges for shipping services and long-term contracts with major industrial clients. Additionally, Algoma Central benefits from partnerships with various stakeholders in the shipping and logistics sectors, including agreements with ports and terminal operators. The company's investments in real estate and shipbuilding also contribute to its earnings, providing diversified revenue sources beyond marine transportation.

Algoma Central Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong TTM revenue rebound (+72.6%) and solid profitability (net margin ~13%, EBITDA margin ~23%) support the score, and leverage remains below 1.0x debt-to-equity. However, recent cash conversion is the major drag: TTM free cash flow is deeply negative (-$120.1M) and operating cash flow covers less than half of net income, alongside higher leverage versus 2023–2024.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue rebounded strongly (+72.6%) and profitability is solid, with net margin around 13% and EBITDA margin near 23%. Net income also improved versus 2024, indicating healthy earnings power. Offsetting this, operating profitability has been volatile over the cycle (EBIT margin notably lower than 2022), and the sharp TTM revenue jump after a slightly down 2024 suggests results may be more cyclical than steady.

Balance Sheet

The capital structure is reasonable, with debt at ~0.68x equity in TTM (still below 1.0x) and equity continuing to build over time. Returns on equity are consistently around ~10–12%, indicating decent efficiency. The main weakness is leverage has moved higher versus 2023–2024 (debt increased meaningfully in TTM), reducing balance-sheet flexibility if market conditions soften.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the key pressure point: TTM free cash flow is deeply negative (-$120.1M) and also negative in 2024, despite positive operating cash flow. In TTM, operating cash flow covers less than half of net income, and free cash flow is materially below net income, pointing to heavier investment/capital spending and weaker cash conversion. Positively, operating cash flow remains consistently positive across years, and free cash flow was strong in 2020–2022, showing the business can generate cash in more favorable periods.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	761.06M	703.44M	721.22M	677.94M	598.87M	545.66M
Gross Profit	389.56M	632.09M	655.17M	612.51M	531.02M	470.51M
EBITDA	167.50M	147.21M	154.06M	186.26M	162.72M	154.53M
Net Income	143.03M	91.64M	82.87M	84.47M	63.77M	45.85M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.77B	1.52B	1.34B	1.37B	1.20B	1.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	37.16M	3.54M	32.83M	141.97M	108.94M	103.91M
Total Debt	536.44M	412.59M	377.37M	402.79M	392.22M	391.15M
Total Liabilities	762.36M	624.11M	565.85M	639.67M	559.80M	662.48M
Stockholders Equity	1.01B	899.85M	778.31M	726.02M	640.28M	560.62M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-120.09M	-10.22M	4.96M	62.26M	130.50M	81.87M
Operating Cash Flow	139.11M	155.39M	124.21M	133.13M	162.38M	157.06M
Investing Cash Flow	-198.94M	-183.75M	-127.78M	-65.87M	-16.23M	-87.19M
Financing Cash Flow	95.34M	-5.55M	-105.76M	-42.37M	-141.02M	16.32M

Algoma Central Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 18.99
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ALC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.88, below the 50-day MA of 20.18, and above the 200-day MA of 17.58, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 85.88 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.27 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ALC.

Algoma Central Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ALC	74 Outperform	C$889.65M	4.29	11.43%	4.27%	8.54%	33.89%
CHR	72 Outperform	C$556.82M	7.03	2.09%	0.76%	-12.42%	69.23%
BDT	69 Neutral	C$1.76B	13.18	21.68%	2.88%	6.26%	0.52%
WJX	66 Neutral	C$737.61M	10.32	8.84%	5.09%	3.71%	-12.70%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
MTL	61 Neutral	C$1.63B	24.51	9.33%	5.21%	5.53%	-21.87%
CJT	59 Neutral	C$1.41B	16.01	16.75%	1.67%	7.71%	3170.43%

Algoma Central Corporate Events

Algoma Central Lifts 2025 Earnings on Fleet Growth and One-Time Joint Venture Gain

Algoma Central Corporation reported stronger financial results for 2025, with revenue rising to $761.1 million and net earnings increasing 56% to $143.0 million, boosted by a one-time gain from the sale of an interest in a cement carrier joint venture. Excluding this and a prior-year impairment reversal, underlying earnings declined modestly as higher operating and administrative costs and increased dry-dockings weighed on performance.

The Domestic Dry-Bulk and Product Tankers segments delivered solid growth, driven by higher iron ore, salt and grain volumes and a larger tanker fleet, while Ocean Self-Unloaders saw lower revenue days and a sharp drop in operating earnings due to more planned dry-dockings. Algoma expanded its fleet with eight new vessels in 2025, reached 100 ships globally and has twelve more under construction, positioning the company for continued growth even as it anticipates softer iron ore volumes in 2026 amid U.S. steel tariffs, with salt and grain demand expected to remain resilient.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ALC) stock is a Buy with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Algoma Central stock, see the TSE:ALC Stock Forecast page.

Algoma Central to Acquire Lower Lakes Fleet, Expanding Great Lakes Dry-Bulk Operations

Algoma Central Corporation has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Mainstay Maritime Inc.’s three Canadian operating companies, including Lower Lakes Towing Ltd., along with six Canadian-flagged vessels serving the Great Lakes dry bulk and liquid cargo trade. The deal will expand Algoma’s Canadian dry-bulk fleet and integrate Lower Lakes’ experienced team, strengthening Algoma’s service capabilities and competitive position across the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence Seaway, while allowing Mainstay to refocus capital and strategy on its U.S. Jones Act fleet and core domestic market priorities.

Both companies highlighted the strategic fit, citing shared commitments to safety, reliability, and high-quality service as key factors in the transaction. The acquisition, which is subject to customary closing conditions and expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, is set to reshape the regional shipping landscape by consolidating Canadian operations under Algoma and enabling Mainstay to intensify reinvestment in its U.S.-flag operations to meet growing customer demand.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ALC) stock is a Buy with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Algoma Central stock, see the TSE:ALC Stock Forecast page.

Algoma Central Sets March 5 Date for Fiscal 2025 Results

Algoma Central Corporation will release its financial results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, before markets open on March 5, 2026. The full earnings report will be made available on the company’s website and through SEDAR for investors and other stakeholders.

The timing of the disclosure gives analysts and shareholders a clear date to assess Algoma’s performance after a year of operating its fuel-efficient bulk carrier fleet in key North American and international trade lanes. The results will offer insight into how its focus on technology and service quality is translating into financial outcomes and competitive positioning in the marine transportation sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ALC) stock is a Buy with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Algoma Central stock, see the TSE:ALC Stock Forecast page.

Algoma Central Sets March 5, 2026 Date for Fiscal 2025 Results

Algoma Central Corporation will release its financial results for the year ended December 31, 2025, before markets open on March 5, 2026, with the full earnings report to be made available on its website and through SEDAR. The scheduled disclosure gives investors and industry stakeholders a clear timeline for reviewing the company’s recent performance in marine transportation, potentially informing views on its operational efficiency, technology investments, and market positioning in bulk shipping services.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ALC) stock is a Buy with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Algoma Central stock, see the TSE:ALC Stock Forecast page.

Algoma Central Lifts Quarterly Dividend by 5% as Payouts More Than Double Since 2018

Algoma Central Corporation announced that its board has approved a quarterly dividend of $0.21 per common share, payable on March 2, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 13, 2026. The new payout represents a 5% increase over the previous $0.20 dividend and continues a steady trend of rising shareholder returns, with the company’s quarterly dividend having more than doubled since 2018, underscoring management’s confidence in Algoma’s financial performance and cash-generation capacity.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ALC) stock is a Hold with a C$20.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Algoma Central stock, see the TSE:ALC Stock Forecast page.

Algoma Central Lifts Quarterly Dividend by 5% as Payout More Than Doubles Since 2018

Algoma Central Corporation announced that its board has approved a quarterly dividend of $0.21 per common share, payable on March 2, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 13, 2026. The new payout represents a 5% increase from the prior $0.20 dividend and continues a long-term trend of rising shareholder returns, with the company’s quarterly dividend having more than doubled since 2018, underscoring management’s confidence in its marine transportation business and its commitment to returning capital to investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ALC) stock is a Hold with a C$20.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Algoma Central stock, see the TSE:ALC Stock Forecast page.