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Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited (TSE:AEM)
NYSE:AEM
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Agnico Eagle
(NYSE:AEM)
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Rating:83Outperform
Price Target:
C$399.00
▲(15.73% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
Score is driven primarily by exceptional financial strength (high margins, strong cash generation, very low leverage) and a positive earnings-call outlook with a well-funded growth pipeline. Technicals also support the rating with a clear uptrend. The main constraint is valuation (P/E ~23.8) alongside near-term cost/capex and execution headwinds discussed on the call.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistently strong operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for capex, dividends and buybacks. With OCF running ~2.8x net income in 2025 and FCF of ~$4.45B, the company can fund growth projects while retaining flexibility to return capital and absorb cyclical shocks.
Exceptionally conservative balance sheet
Very low leverage and a growing equity base materially lower solvency risk and increase funding optionality. The conservative balance sheet supports elevated multi-year capex plans, enables larger shareholder distributions, and reduces refinancing and covenant pressures during metal price downturns.
Large reserves and credible growth pipeline
Record reserves plus multiple high-quality projects and extensive exploration (1.4M m drilled in 2025) create a path to sustainable production growth >4 Moz. This resource base and project pipeline underpin long-term revenue durability and scale economies if execution stays on plan.
Negative Factors
Elevated multi-year growth capex and execution risk
A sustained $5–$6B growth program raises execution, scheduling and resource-allocation risks. Large, front-loaded capex can increase FCF variability, require sustained funding and strain organizational capacity, making timelines and returns sensitive to delays or cost overruns.
Rising unit costs from royalties, currency and inflation
Structural upward pressure on cash costs—driven by royalties, currency strength and broad inflation—erodes AISC margins. If these factors persist, unit-cost inflation reduces the margin buffer from higher gold prices and compresses long-term free cash flow and project economics.
Revenue and earnings volatility tied to gold cycles
Dependence on commodity prices and variable annual production leads to uneven revenue and earnings. Even with strong margins and cash, cyclical swings can disrupt capital allocation, dividend consistency and credit metrics during downturns, challenging long-term planning.
Agnico Eagle (AEM) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$172.74B
Dividend Yield0.91%
Average Volume (3M)1.03M
Price to Earnings (P/E)27.6
Beta (1Y)1.54
Revenue Growth38.72%
EPS Growth250.70%
CountryCA
Employees10,125
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.67
Shares Outstanding501,029,600
10 Day Avg. Volume798,076
30 Day Avg. Volume1,031,232
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.14
Price to Book (P/B)3.45
Price to Sales (P/S)7.02
P/FCF Ratio19.11
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$335.88Price Target Upside-2.58% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)18.64
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$22.22B
Agnico Eagle Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAgnico Eagle Mines Limited engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineral properties in Canada, Mexico, and Finland. It operates through Northern Business and Southern Business segments. The company primarily produces and sells gold deposits, as well as explores for silver, zinc, and copper deposits. Its flagship property is the LaRonde mine located in the Abitibi region of northwestern Quebec, Canada. As of December 31, 2021, the company's LaRonde mine had proven and probable mineral reserves of approximately 3.0 million ounces of gold. It is also involved in exploration activities in Europe, Latin America, and the United States. The company was incorporated in 1953 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyAgnico Eagle generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of gold and other precious metals. The company operates multiple mining sites and generates income by selling the gold produced at these facilities to global markets. Key revenue streams include gold sales, which are influenced by market prices, production volumes, and operational efficiency. Additionally, Agnico Eagle may benefit from by-product sales, such as silver, which can provide supplemental income. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures that can enhance its resource base, reduce operational costs, and diversify its portfolio, contributing positively to its earnings. Moreover, Agnico Eagle's focus on sustainable practices and community engagement can lead to long-term operational stability and profitability.
Agnico Eagle Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive overall: management reported record financial results, robust free cash flow (~$4.4B), returned record capital to shareholders, materially strengthened the balance sheet (nearly $3B cash, ~$950M debt repaid), and delivered record reserves/resources (reserves +~2.1%, M&I resources +~10%, inferred +~15.5%). Leadership laid out an ambitious and well-funded growth pathway that could raise production by 20%–30% and exceed 4M oz/year by the early 2030s, supported by accelerated investment in high‑quality projects and a large exploration program. The main negatives were higher near‑term costs (Q4 costs above guidance, FY cash/AISC slightly above guidance), a notable $1.3B cash tax outflow, inflationary pressures, some timing adjustments at Detour and elevated multi‑year growth capex needs (~$5–$6B), but these were framed as manageable and partially voluntary accelerations given attractive project returns. On balance, highlights significantly outweigh lowlights.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Financial Performance and Free Cash Flow
Agnico Eagle reported record adjusted earnings of approximately $1.4 billion ($2.70/share) in Q4 and record full-year free cash flow of ~$4.4 billion; Q4 free cash flow was over $1.3 billion (~$2.62/share).
Strong Production Delivery in 2025
Full-year gold production of 3.45 million ounces exceeded the midpoint of guidance; Q4 production was ~841,000 ounces, underpinning operational consistency.
Major Balance Sheet Strengthening and Capital Returns
Repaid ~ $950 million of debt in 2025, increased cash by ~$1.9 billion to end the year with $2.9 billion, and returned a record ~$1.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks (including ~$500 million in Q4).
Capture of Gold Price Upside
With the gold price rising ~$1,700 year-over-year, management captured ≈95% of the price increase in company margins and emphasizes delivering gold upside leverage to shareholders.
Record Reserves, Resources and Inferred Growth
Year-end mineral reserves reached a record 55.4 million ounces (up ~2.1% YoY); measured & indicated resources ~47.1 million ounces (up ~10% YoY); inferred resources ~41.8 million ounces (up ~15.5% YoY).
Ambitious Growth Plan and High-Quality Project Pipeline
Company targets 20%–30% production growth over the next decade with a path to >4 million oz/year by early 2030s; five key growth projects (Detour, Canadian Malartic fill‑the‑mill, Upper Beaver, Hope Bay, San Nicolás) could add ~1.3–1.5 million oz/year of profitable production.
Accelerated Project Investment to De‑risk Growth
Management is accelerating capital: Detour underground investment increased from $100M to $300M (tripled), Upper Beaver investment increased from $200M to $300M, and incremental capital for projects (e.g., potential additional ~$300M for Hope Bay if approved) to support earlier production timelines (some targets moved toward 2028–2030).
Exploration and Drilling Momentum
Exploration program ran 120+ drill rigs and ~1.4 million meters of core drilling in 2025 (unit costs slightly lower YoY), with a 2026 objective to exceed 1.5 million meters; successful results added material resources (e.g., Detour underground amenable resources now ~5.5M oz M&I + 5.8M oz inferred; Marban initial reserve 1.58M oz).
Shareholder-Friendly Capital Allocation
Quarterly dividend increased 12.5% to $0.45/share; intention to renew NCIB and increase buyback limit up to $2 billion; returned ~1/3 of free cash flow in 2025 with potential to target 40%+ return of FCF depending on gold price.
Negative Updates
Higher Costs in Q4 and FY2025
Q4 total cash cost was $1,089/oz and AISC $1,517/oz; full-year total cash cost $979/oz and AISC $1,339/oz—both slightly above the top end of guidance, driven primarily by higher royalties, lower Q4 production volumes and Meadowbank cost increases.
2026 Cost Headwinds and Royalty/Currency Assumptions
2026 cash costs are forecast to be up a little over $100/oz versus 2025; management states ~60% of the increase is from assumed higher royalties (budgeted gold price $4,500/oz) and a stronger Canadian dollar, with the remaining ~40% reflecting underlying inflation (~4%–5%) and lower grade sequences.
Meadowbank Higher-Cost Ounces and Operational Changes
Meadowbank life-extension ounces carry higher costs (management referenced ASIC around $2,200–$2,300/oz) and contributed to higher costs in Q4 as the site extended mine life and faced higher operating costs.
Project Execution and Ramp Timing Pressures
Detour experienced pit delays and the mill ramp-up has been moderated to stabilize throughput (28 Mt achieved in 2025, revised measured ramp to 29 Mt by 2030); these timing adjustments and sequencing changes may modestly affect near-term production cadence and costs.
Higher Cash Tax Liability Near Term
A required cash tax payment related to 2025 of approximately $1.3 billion is payable in February; while the company has cash on hand, this is a material near-term cash outflow.
Inflationary Pressure on Input Costs and Labor
Underlying labor inflation ~4% and non-labor consumables (chemicals, reagents, parts) in the ~5.5%–6% range; management flags industry-wide pressure on availability of labor and parts as potential cost/procurement risk in a high-price environment.
Capital Intensity and Resource/Organizational Capacity Risks
Management expects approximately $5–$6 billion of growth capital through 2026–2030 (e.g., Detour, Upper Beaver, Hope Bay). While management is accelerating high-return projects, sustaining an elevated multi-year capex program raises execution and human-capacity demands that could strain resources if opportunities multiply.
Company Guidance
The company guided to a stable 3.3–3.5 million oz/year production profile over the next three years (2025 actual: 3.45 Moz) and a 2026 midpoint cost outlook of ~$1,070/oz cash costs and ~$1,475/oz AISC (2025: $979 cash cost, $1,339 AISC; excluding higher royalties 2025 cash cost would have been $937), noting 2026 cash costs are only a little over $100/oz higher than 2025 with ~60% of that increase driven by higher royalties (budgeted gold price of $4,500/oz) and a stronger CAD and the remainder reflecting about 4–5% inflation/lower grades; balance-sheet and capital guidance includes ~$2.1B of reported 2026 capex (management said roughly $2.4–2.5B including a potential additional ~$300M if Hope Bay is approved) plus ~ $400M of capitalized exploration, continued accelerated spending at Detour Underground and Upper Beaver through mid‑2027, and potential project-driven production upside of ~1.3–1.5 Moz/year (Detour UG 300–350k, Canadian Malartic fill‑the‑mill 400–500k, Upper Beaver >200k, Hope Bay ~400–425k) supporting a plan to grow production 20–30% over the next decade to north of 4 Moz by the early 2030s; other key metrics: record year‑end reserves 55.4 Moz (+2%), M&I resources ~47.1 Moz (+~10%), inferred ~41.8 Moz (+15.5%), year‑end cash ~$2.9B, 2025 free cash flow ~$4.4B, debt repaid ~ $950M, dividend up 12.5% to $0.45/sh and NCIB buyback capacity to $2B with a return of ~1/3 of FCF in 2025 (targetable to 40%+).Agnico Eagle Financial Statement Overview
Summary
High-quality fundamentals: very strong profitability (2025 gross ~56%, operating ~53%, net ~37%), robust and improving operating/ free cash flow (2025 OCF ~$6.9B; FCF ~$4.45B), and an exceptionally conservative balance sheet with minimal leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.02). Main offset is commodity-linked revenue volatility and some FCF variability versus net income due to reinvestment/capex swings.Income Statement
Revenue has expanded strongly over the last several years (2020–2024), followed by a modest pullback in 2025 (annual revenue down ~4.6%). Profitability is a major strength: 2025 shows very high gross and operating profitability (gross margin ~56%, net margin ~37%, operating margin ~53%), with a clear step-up versus 2024. The main weakness is top-line volatility typical of gold producers—growth is not consistent year-to-year, which can pressure valuation during weaker commodity cycles.88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is exceptionally conservative, with debt steadily reduced to very low levels by 2025 (debt-to-equity ~0.02 versus ~0.06 in 2024 and ~0.10 in 2023). Equity has grown meaningfully over time, supporting a larger asset base and providing substantial financial flexibility. The key trade-off is that returns can fluctuate with earnings cycles (e.g., return on equity was ~9–10% in 2023–2024), but leverage risk appears minimal.94
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is strong and improving: operating cash flow rose sharply into 2025 (~$6.9B) and free cash flow also increased (~$4.45B, up ~4.7% year over year). Cash conversion is solid, with operating cash flow running well above net income (coverage ~2.8x in 2025), indicating good earnings quality. A watch item is that free cash flow has not consistently matched net income (free cash flow at ~64% of net income in 2025), implying ongoing reinvestment and/or working-capital/capex swings.90
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 12.12B | 8.29B | 6.63B | 5.74B | 3.82B |
| Gross Profit | 6.79B | 3.69B | 3.72B | 2.00B | 1.33B |
| EBITDA | 8.15B | 4.42B | 4.05B | 2.27B | 1.75B |
| Net Income | 4.54B | 1.90B | 1.94B | 670.25M | 561.95M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 34.41B | 29.99B | 28.68B | 23.49B | 10.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.87B | 933.74M | 348.85M | 658.63M | 191.07M |
| Total Debt | 415.43M | 1.28B | 2.00B | 1.49B | 1.70B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.71B | 9.15B | 9.26B | 7.25B | 4.21B |
| Stockholders Equity | 24.70B | 20.83B | 19.42B | 16.24B | 5.98B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.45B | 2.13B | 953.66M | 558.40M | 398.31M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.93B | 3.96B | 2.65B | 2.10B | 1.32B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.64B | -2.01B | -2.81B | -710.46M | -1.23B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.32B | -1.36B | -163.96M | -914.85M | -297.24M |
Agnico Eagle Technical Analysis
Positive
344.78
Price Trends
277.84
Positive
255.04
Positive
218.24
Positive
Market Momentum
18.25
Negative
70.99
Negative
95.61
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AEM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 344.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 299.78, above the 50-day MA of 277.84, and above the 200-day MA of 218.24, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 18.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.99 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.61 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:AEM.
Agnico Eagle Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | C$172.74B | 27.59 | 19.58% | 0.91% | 38.72% | 250.70% | |
78 Outperform | C$60.34B | 18.41 | 30.96% | 0.43% | 36.41% | 144.79% | |
78 Outperform | C$31.76B | 25.11 | 22.06% | 0.25% | 34.64% | 115.75% | |
76 Outperform | C$102.90B | 72.15 | 13.05% | 0.55% | 54.48% | 68.44% | |
73 Outperform | C$115.88B | 16.93 | 19.64% | 1.17% | 21.76% | 129.56% | |
72 Outperform | C$73.20B | 57.18 | 14.17% | 0.72% | 44.76% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:AEM
Agnico Eagle
344.78
203.45
143.95%
TSE:ABX
Barrick Mining
69.17
43.31
167.45%
TSE:FNV
Franco-Nevada
379.70
171.99
82.80%
TSE:K
Kinross Gold
50.29
33.95
207.79%
TSE:WPM
Wheaton Precious Metals
226.64
125.61
124.33%
TSE:AGI
Alamos Gold
75.65
40.83
117.25%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.