Tenaya Therapeutics (TNYA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $121.63M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.00M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.82
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 46.68%
• Country: US
• Employees: 97
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 216,505,890
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,873,734
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,003,933
• PEG Ratio: 0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.31
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.33
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.41
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -12.71
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.58
• 1Y Price Target: $3.00
• Price Target Upside: 125.56% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.46
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 43 Neutral
• Price Target: $0.88 ▼(-33.68% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/31/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/31/26

The score is primarily weighed down by weak financial performance (no revenue, sizable losses, and heavy negative free cash flow), implying ongoing dependence on external funding. Technicals remain mixed with a longer-term downtrend and no clear momentum reversal. Corporate events are balanced, with positive regulatory/clinical developments partly offset by elevated Nasdaq listing-compliance risk.

Positive Factors

Modest leverage (low debt)

Low absolute debt and a debt-to-equity of ~0.14 is a durable strength for a pre-revenue biotech. It reduces fixed financing obligations, preserves operational flexibility to fund R&D or withstand trial delays, and limits bankruptcy risk while the company pursues clinical milestones.

Regulatory progress on lead programs

The FDA lifting the MyPEAK-1 hold and promising RIDGE-1 interim data materially improves program execution risk. This structural development enables resumed enrollment and continued development of TN-201 and supports the clinical viability of TN-401, enhancing long-term pipeline optionality.

Completed capital raise to fund development

A ~$60M public offering meaningfully extends runway to advance TN-201 and TN-401 development. Securing new capital reduces immediate funding pressure, allows milestone-focused spending, and increases the probability of achieving value-accretive clinical readouts without urgent dilutive financing.

Negative Factors

High cash burn, pre-revenue

Sustained heavy cash burn with no product revenue is a core structural weakness. Continued negative operating and free cash flow requires persistent external funding; if capital access tightens or trial timelines slip, the company faces accelerated dilution or program curtailment risk.

Material erosion of equity base

A steep decline in shareholders' equity reflects cumulative losses and dilution, reducing the balance-sheet buffer to absorb clinical or regulatory setbacks. This weaker equity base constrains non-dilutive financing options and makes future capital raises potentially more dilutive and costly.

Nasdaq compliance risk and dilution pressure

A Nasdaq minimum bid deficiency creates structural governance and execution risk, potentially forcing share actions or further financings. Coupled with an expanded equity incentive pool, this signals ongoing reliance on stock-based compensation and increases the prospect of future dilution for existing holders.

Tenaya Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tenaya Therapeutics, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and delivers therapies for heart disease in the United States. It develops its products through cellular regeneration, gene therapy, and precision medicine platforms. The company is developing TN-201, an adeno-associated virus (AAV)-based gene therapy to address genetic hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (gHCM) caused by haploinsufficient myosin binding protein C3 (MYBPC3) gene mutations; and TN-301, a small molecule inhibitor of histone deacetylase 6 (HDAC6i) for use in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and genetic dilated cardiomyopathy (gDCM). It is also developing TN-401, an AAV-based gene therapy that addresses genetic arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (gARVC) caused by plakophilin 2 (PKP2) gene mutations; an AAV-based gene therapy designed to deliver the dwarf open reading frame (DWORF) gene in the heart for DCM; and Reprogramming program, an AAV-based approach for cardiac regeneration to replace heart cells lost in patients experiencing heart failure due to prior myocardial infarction. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Tenaya Therapeutics makes money primarily through the development and commercialization of its proprietary therapies for heart disease. Revenue streams include upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties from partnerships and collaborations with larger pharmaceutical companies. Additionally, the company may generate income from licensing its technologies and intellectual property to other biotech firms. Tenaya also seeks to raise funds through equity financing, government grants, and research collaborations, which support ongoing research and development activities.

Tenaya Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Pre-revenue profile with large ongoing losses and significant cash burn (TTM operating cash outflow ~$(72.7)M; FCF ~$(73.5)M). Balance sheet leverage is modest (debt-to-equity ~0.14), but equity has declined materially over time, indicating continued funding risk despite some recent improvement in losses and burn versus 2024.

Income Statement

The company continues to generate no revenue across the annual periods provided and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), while operating losses remain very large. Losses have improved in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) versus 2024 (net loss of ~$94.3M vs. ~$111.1M), but profitability is still deeply negative and the business model remains dependent on external funding rather than operating earnings.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is modest (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) debt of ~$11.5M vs. equity of ~$82.9M; debt-to-equity ~0.14), which is a key strength for a pre-revenue biotech. However, the equity base has declined materially over time (from ~$278.5M in 2021 to ~$82.9M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), reflecting ongoing losses and limiting balance-sheet flexibility. Returns on equity are strongly negative in recent periods, consistent with continued value dilution/erosion.

Cash Flow

Cash burn remains heavy: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash outflow is ~$(72.7)M and free cash flow is ~$(73.5)M. While cash burn improved versus 2024 (operating cash outflow ~$(90.5)M), free cash flow growth is negative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), and the company is still far from self-funding, implying continued reliance on capital raises or partnerships to support operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-3.95M	-8.47M	-8.69M	-8.71M	-4.03M	-2.48M
EBITDA	-87.05M	-102.66M	-115.40M	-114.95M	-68.70M	-35.91M
Net Income	-94.26M	-111.13M	-124.08M	-123.67M	-72.72M	-38.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	104.98M	119.94M	170.51M	278.94M	316.65M	148.16M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	56.31M	61.45M	104.64M	186.53M	251.30M	128.53M
Total Debt	11.53M	13.61M	12.42M	15.10M	15.70M	0.00
Total Liabilities	22.11M	27.09M	31.09M	35.57M	38.12M	8.72M
Stockholders Equity	82.87M	92.85M	139.42M	243.38M	278.53M	139.44M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-73.47M	-91.53M	-103.31M	-125.05M	-85.93M	-45.21M
Operating Cash Flow	-72.71M	-90.50M	-102.07M	-104.42M	-60.81M	-35.45M
Investing Cash Flow	70.25M	1.13M	48.72M	83.65M	-238.56M	-7.01M
Financing Cash Flow	50.54M	47.75M	4.05M	77.77M	208.97M	147.27M

Tenaya Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.33
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TNYA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.71, above the 50-day MA of 0.72, and above the 200-day MA of 0.99, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TNYA.

Tenaya Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ABEO	60 Neutral	$277.46M	4.39	75.90%	―	―	―
TECX	57 Neutral	$440.31M	-5.80	-37.82%	―	―	60.40%
CADL	56 Neutral	$288.22M	-9.39	-70.17%	―	―	68.53%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
GALT	46 Neutral	$192.15M	-5.04	―	―	―	18.82%
VYGR	46 Neutral	$227.96M	-1.89	-46.09%	―	-80.88%	-388.61%
TNYA	43 Neutral	$121.63M	-0.71	-96.44%	―	―	46.68%

Tenaya Therapeutics Corporate Events

Tenaya Therapeutics Faces Nasdaq Deficiency, Amends Equity Plan

On January 28, 2026, Tenaya Therapeutics disclosed that it had received a deficiency notice from Nasdaq after its common stock traded below the required $1.00 minimum bid price for 30 consecutive business days between December 12, 2025, and January 27, 2026, triggering a 180-day compliance period through July 27, 2026, during which it must restore its share price or risk potential delisting, with the possibility of an additional 180-day extension via transfer to the Nasdaq Capital Market if certain conditions are met. Separately, effective January 26, 2026, the company’s board amended and restated its 2024 Inducement Equity Incentive Plan to increase the share pool to 3,361,000 shares for equity awards used to recruit new employees or support mergers and acquisitions, underscoring Tenaya’s continued reliance on stock-based compensation to strengthen its workforce and strategic flexibility amid listing compliance pressures.

The most recent analyst rating on (TNYA) stock is a Hold with a $0.76 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tenaya Therapeutics stock, see the TNYA Stock Forecast page.

Tenaya Therapeutics announces orderly board leadership transition

Tenaya Therapeutics announced that board member David Goeddel submitted his resignation from the company’s board of directors and all board committees on December 31, 2025, with the resignation to take effect on January 26, 2026, in connection with his retirement. The company emphasized that Goeddel’s departure was voluntary, not due to any disagreement over operations, policies or practices, and the board publicly thanked him for his service and contributions, signaling an orderly leadership transition rather than a governance dispute.

The most recent analyst rating on (TNYA) stock is a Hold with a $0.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tenaya Therapeutics stock, see the TNYA Stock Forecast page.

Tenaya Therapeutics Announces Public Offering Pricing

On December 11, 2025, Tenaya Therapeutics announced the pricing of its public offering of 50 million units, expected to raise approximately $60 million. The proceeds will fund the development of clinical and early-stage product candidates, including TN-201 and TN-401, and support general corporate purposes. The offering is set to close on December 15, 2025, subject to customary conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TNYA) stock is a Buy with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tenaya Therapeutics stock, see the TNYA Stock Forecast page.

FDA Lifts Hold on Tenaya’s MyPEAK-1 Trial

On December 11, 2025, Tenaya Therapeutics announced that the FDA lifted the clinical hold on its MyPEAK-1 trial for TN-201 gene therapy, following amendments to the study protocol. The company also shared interim data from its RIDGE-1 trial for TN-401, showing promising safety and efficacy results, with no dose-limiting toxicities and improvements in electrical instability in patients.

The most recent analyst rating on (TNYA) stock is a Buy with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tenaya Therapeutics stock, see the TNYA Stock Forecast page.

FDA Places Hold on Tenaya’s MyPEAKTM-1 Trial

The FDA has placed a clinical hold on Tenaya Therapeutics‘ MyPEAKTM-1 trial for TN-201, a treatment for MYBPC3-associated hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, to standardize patient monitoring and immunosuppression management. Despite the hold, Tenaya expects no impact on TN-201’s data milestones or development timelines, as the drug has shown an acceptable safety profile and no new safety events have been reported.

The most recent analyst rating on (TNYA) stock is a Buy with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tenaya Therapeutics stock, see the TNYA Stock Forecast page.