Triumph Group (TGI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.01B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.69M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 56.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.01
• Revenue Growth: -4.74%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,530
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 86
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): 0.48
• Shares Outstanding: 77,715,065
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,236,643
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,688,786
• PEG Ratio: -0.53
• Price to Book (P/B): -26.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 106.45
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.35
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.54
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.95
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.47
• 1Y Price Target: $26.00
• Price Target Upside: 0.70% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $26.00 ▲(0.70%Upside)

The most significant factor influencing the overall score is the financial performance, which shows signs of recovery but is hindered by high leverage and negative equity. Technical analysis indicates a neutral market sentiment, while valuation suggests the stock is overvalued, impacting its attractiveness. The lack of dividend yield and earnings call guidance further dampens the investment outlook.

Positive Factors

Acquisition

TGI shareholders will receive $26 per share in cash, representing a 39% premium to the closing price before the deal was announced.

Business Growth

The strong results come on the back of 40%+ growth in Commercial MRO sales and over 30% growth in Military MRO sales.

Financial Performance

Overall performance was strong as EBITDA topped expectations and cash flow came in better than what management had previously guided.

Negative Factors

Communication

The company is no longer hosting an earnings call due to the pending deal expected to close in the second half of 2025.

Historical Performance

The stock experienced significant underperformance over the past five years, heavily impacted by COVID-19 disruptions and poor build rates.

Stock Downgrade

Shares of Triumph Group are downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform as the company has agreed to be purchased by a newly formed entity under Warburg Pincus and Berkshire Partners.

Triumph Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Triumph Group, Inc. designs, engineers, manufactures, repairs, overhauls, and distributes aerostructures, aircraft components, accessories, subassemblies, and systems worldwide. It operates in two segments, Triumph Systems & Support, and Triumph Aerospace Structures. The company offers aircraft and engine-mounted accessory drives, thermal control systems and components, cargo hooks, high lift actuations, cockpit control levers, hydraulic systems and components, control system valve bodies, landing gear actuation systems, electronic engine controls, landing gear components and assemblies, exhaust nozzles and ducting, main engine gearbox assemblies, geared transmissions and drive train components, main fuel pumps, fuel-metering units, primary and secondary flight control systems, and vibration absorbers. It also designs, manufactures, and repairs composite and metal bonding, flight control surfaces, engine nacelles, empennages, wing flaps, acoustic and thermal insulation systems, and composite ducts and floor panels, as well as provides integrated testing and certification services; and fuselage panels, horizontal and vertical tails, and floor grids. In addition, the company offers air cycle machines, blades and vanes, auxiliary power units, constant speed drives, combustors, engine and airframe accessories, stators, flight control surfaces, transition ducts, integrated drive generators, sidewalls, nacelles, light assemblies, remote sensors, overhead bins, thrust reversers, and fuel bladder cells, as well as cabin panes, shades, light lenses, and other components. It serves original equipment manufacturers of commercial, regional, and military aircraft; and aircraft components, as well as business jets and regional airlines, and air cargo carriers. Triumph Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Berwyn, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

Triumph Group makes money through various revenue streams, primarily derived from the sale and servicing of aerospace components and systems. The company's revenue model is divided into three main segments: Integrated Systems, Aerospace Structures, and Aftermarket Services. The Integrated Systems segment focuses on designing and manufacturing complex mechanical and electro-mechanical systems for commercial, military, and business aircraft. The Aerospace Structures segment involves the production of large metallic and composite structures, while the Aftermarket Services segment offers maintenance, repair, and overhaul services for aircraft components and systems. Key factors contributing to Triumph's earnings include long-term contracts with major aerospace manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus, as well as partnerships with defense contractors and government entities. The company also benefits from the growing demand for aftermarket services, which provide stable and recurring revenue.

Triumph Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Triumph Group is on a recovery path with improving revenue and operational efficiency, as evidenced by increased EBITDA margins. However, the financial structure remains strained with high leverage and negative equity, posing a risk to financial stability. Cash flows are stabilizing, but historical volatility suggests cautious optimism. A focus on enhancing profitability and reducing leverage could strengthen the financial outlook.

Income Statement

Triumph Group shows a recovering revenue trend with a revenue growth rate of 5.87% from the previous year, and a gross profit margin of 31.56%. Despite these positives, the company has a low net profit margin of 3.24% and a fluctuating EBIT margin, currently at 11.05%. The improvement in EBITDA margin to 12.57% indicates better operational efficiency. However, profitability remains a concern due to past net losses.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio due to negative stockholders' equity, indicating financial instability. The equity ratio is negative, reflecting more liabilities than assets. Although there is some improvement in debt levels, the continued negative equity signals potential risk.

Cash Flow

Cash flow is improving with a positive free cash flow of $18.83 million and a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.93. Free cash flow growth is significant, but past periods of negative free cash flow highlight volatility in cash management. The company shows potential for stable cash flow with recent positive trends.

Breakdown	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.26B	1.19B	1.38B	1.46B	1.87B
Gross Profit	398.14M	322.84M	387.53M	386.88M	393.45M
EBITDA	158.66M	125.30M	149.26M	147.66M	-183.30M
Net Income	40.87M	512.38M	89.59M	-42.76M	-450.91M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.63B	1.69B	1.71B	1.76B	2.45B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	277.16M	392.51M	227.40M	240.88M	589.88M
Total Debt	987.03M	1.09B	1.69B	1.59B	1.96B
Total Liabilities	1.70B	1.79B	2.51B	2.55B	3.27B
Stockholders Equity	-76.45M	-104.41M	-797.40M	-787.42M	-818.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	18.83M	-12.38M	-72.93M	-156.68M	-198.30M
Operating Cash Flow	37.88M	9.44M	-52.25M	-137.02M	-173.12M
Investing Cash Flow	-21.35M	689.92M	-27.17M	181.21M	-9.29M
Financing Cash Flow	-129.70M	-534.34M	65.79M	-392.66M	277.25M

Triumph Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 25.82
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TGI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.80, above the 50-day MA of 25.67, and above the 200-day MA of 21.27, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TGI.

Triumph Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AIR	74 Outperform	$2.58B	246.75	-1.08%	―	21.07%	-120.95%
ATRO	68 Neutral	$1.16B	―	-1.35%	―	13.73%	86.81%
DCO	68 Neutral	$1.26B	36.41	5.25%	―	3.02%	95.76%
MRCY	58 Neutral	$3.07B	―	-4.45%	―	5.66%	52.71%
Sector *	58 Neutral	$1.34B	4.24	-2.93%	7.38%	3.67%	-51.13%
TGI	55 Neutral	$2.01B	56.47	46.74%	―	-4.74%	―
SPR	37 Underperform	$4.54B	―	81.63%	―	-2.91%	-109.95%