Triumph Group (TGI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.02B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.68M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 56.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.99
• Revenue Growth: -4.74%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,530
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 93
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): 0.48
• Shares Outstanding: 77,786,860
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,354,109
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,676,140
• PEG Ratio: -0.53
• Price to Book (P/B): -26.24
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 106.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.35
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.55
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.97
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.49
• 1Y Price Target: $26.00
• Price Target Upside: -0.04% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $27.00 ▲(3.81%Upside)

The stock score is driven primarily by financial performance and technical analysis. While revenue and operational efficiency are improving, high leverage and negative equity pose significant risks. The positive technical trend is slightly offset by the high P/E ratio, indicating overvaluation. The recent acquisition is promising but not factored into the weighted score.

Positive Factors

Acquisition

Private equity is acquiring a transformed business poised to grow materially.

Financial Performance

Overall performance was strong as EBITDA topped expectations and cash flow came in better than what management had previously guided.

Shareholder Value

TGI shareholders will receive $26 per share in cash, representing a 39% premium to the closing price before the deal was announced.

Negative Factors

Earnings Call

The company is no longer hosting an earnings call due to the pending deal expected to close in the second half of 2025.

Stock Performance

The stock experienced significant underperformance over the past five years, heavily impacted by COVID-19 disruptions and poor build rates.

Triumph Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Triumph Group, Inc. (TGI) is a global leader in manufacturing and overhauling aerospace structures, systems, and components. The company operates in the aerospace and defense sector, primarily focusing on the design, engineering, and manufacturing of a broad range of aircraft components, such as fuselage sections, wings, and landing gear, as well as systems for both commercial and military aircraft. Triumph Group is known for its comprehensive solutions that span the entire aircraft lifecycle, from design and development to maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services.

How the Company Makes Money

Triumph Group makes money through various revenue streams, primarily derived from the sale and servicing of aerospace components and systems. The company's revenue model is divided into three main segments: Integrated Systems, Aerospace Structures, and Aftermarket Services. The Integrated Systems segment focuses on designing and manufacturing complex mechanical and electro-mechanical systems for commercial, military, and business aircraft. The Aerospace Structures segment involves the production of large metallic and composite structures, while the Aftermarket Services segment offers maintenance, repair, and overhaul services for aircraft components and systems. Key factors contributing to Triumph's earnings include long-term contracts with major aerospace manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus, as well as partnerships with defense contractors and government entities. The company also benefits from the growing demand for aftermarket services, which provide stable and recurring revenue.

Triumph Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Triumph Group is on a recovery path with improving revenue and operational efficiency, as evidenced by increased EBITDA margins. However, the financial structure remains strained with high leverage and negative equity, posing a risk to financial stability. Cash flows are stabilizing, but historical volatility suggests cautious optimism. A focus on enhancing profitability and reducing leverage could strengthen the financial outlook.

Income Statement

Triumph Group shows a recovering revenue trend with a revenue growth rate of 5.87% from the previous year, and a gross profit margin of 31.56%. Despite these positives, the company has a low net profit margin of 3.24% and a fluctuating EBIT margin, currently at 11.05%. The improvement in EBITDA margin to 12.57% indicates better operational efficiency. However, profitability remains a concern due to past net losses.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio due to negative stockholders' equity, indicating financial instability. The equity ratio is negative, reflecting more liabilities than assets. Although there is some improvement in debt levels, the continued negative equity signals potential risk.

Cash Flow

Cash flow is improving with a positive free cash flow of $18.83 million and a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.93. Free cash flow growth is significant, but past periods of negative free cash flow highlight volatility in cash management. The company shows potential for stable cash flow with recent positive trends.

Breakdown	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.26B	1.19B	1.38B	1.46B	1.87B
Gross Profit	398.14M	322.84M	387.53M	386.88M	393.45M
EBITDA	158.66M	125.30M	149.26M	147.66M	-183.30M
Net Income	40.87M	512.38M	89.59M	-42.76M	-450.91M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.63B	1.69B	1.71B	1.76B	2.45B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	277.16M	392.51M	227.40M	240.88M	589.88M
Total Debt	987.03M	1.09B	1.69B	1.59B	1.96B
Total Liabilities	1.70B	1.79B	2.51B	2.55B	3.27B
Stockholders Equity	-76.45M	-104.41M	-797.40M	-787.42M	-818.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	18.83M	-12.38M	-72.93M	-156.68M	-198.30M
Operating Cash Flow	37.88M	9.44M	-52.25M	-137.02M	-173.12M
Investing Cash Flow	-21.35M	689.92M	-27.17M	181.21M	-9.29M
Financing Cash Flow	-129.70M	-534.34M	65.79M	-392.66M	277.25M

Triumph Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 26.01
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TGI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.85, above the 50-day MA of 25.80, and above the 200-day MA of 22.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TGI.

Triumph Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AIR	75 Outperform	$2.78B	228.78	1.02%	―	19.91%	-73.61%
DCO	68 Neutral	$1.32B	38.78	5.25%	―	3.02%	95.76%
ATRO	67 Neutral	$1.22B	―	-1.35%	―	13.73%	86.81%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$11.05B	15.76	5.13%	1.92%	3.11%	-24.90%
SPR	60 Neutral	$4.81B	―	81.63%	―	-2.91%	-109.95%
TGI	58 Neutral	$2.02B	56.89	46.74%	―	-4.74%	―
MRCY	58 Neutral	$3.13B	―	-4.45%	―	5.66%	52.71%

Triumph Group Corporate Events

Triumph Group Completes Acquisition by Private Equity Firms

On July 24, 2025, Triumph Group announced the completion of its acquisition by private equity firms Warburg Pincus and Berkshire Partners, transitioning into an independent privately-held company. Jorge L. Valladares III will succeed Daniel J. Crowley as CEO, as the company aims to strengthen its position as a leading provider of mission-critical aerospace systems and components. The acquisition is expected to accelerate Triumph’s growth and enhance its capabilities in serving aerospace and defense sectors.

The most recent analyst rating on (TGI) stock is a Hold with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triumph Group stock, see the TGI Stock Forecast page.

Triumph Group Amends Receivables Securitization Facility

On June 30, 2025, Triumph Group, Inc. amended its $75 million receivables securitization facility, originally established in August 2008. The amendments involve transferring the facility’s administration from PNC Bank to MUFG Bank, Ltd., and include changes to benchmark transition provisions. These changes are related to the acquisition of Triumph Group by affiliates of Warburg Pincus LLC and Berkshire Partners LLC.

The most recent analyst rating on (TGI) stock is a Hold with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triumph Group stock, see the TGI Stock Forecast page.