Tecogen Inc (TGEN)
XASE:TGEN
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Tecogen
(NYSE MKT:TGEN)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▲(39.53% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
The score is held back primarily by persistent losses and substantial negative operating/free cash flow, despite modest leverage. Technicals are a notable positive with strong price momentum, while valuation support is limited due to negative earnings and no dividend. The latest earnings call adds cautious optimism from improving gross margin and near-term commercial catalysts (Vertiv PO/project pipeline), but near-term execution and liquidity dependence keep the overall score mid-range.
Positive Factors
Improved Gross Margin
Sustained gross margin above the company’s 40% target indicates fundamentally healthier unit economics for Tecogen’s product and service mix. Higher underlying margins provide more room to absorb SG&A and ramp costs while scaling, supporting long-term profitability if maintained.
Negative Factors
Persistent Cash Burn
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow erodes liquidity and forces recurring financing or equity raises. Even with modest debt, ongoing cash burn increases dilution and constrains investments, making execution on growth and scaling plans dependent on external funding over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved Gross Margin
Sustained gross margin above the company’s 40% target indicates fundamentally healthier unit economics for Tecogen’s product and service mix. Higher underlying margins provide more room to absorb SG&A and ramp costs while scaling, supporting long-term profitability if maintained.
Read all positive factors
Tecogen (TGEN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$185.79M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)626.23K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.03
Revenue Growth10.21%
EPS Growth-94.23%
CountryUS
Employees91
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryElectrical Equipment & Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.33
Shares Outstanding29,917,952
10 Day Avg. Volume557,263
30 Day Avg. Volume626,226
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.28
Price to Book (P/B)6.22
Price to Sales (P/S)4.97
P/FCF Ratio-13.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.86
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit19.51
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-23.73
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.83Price Target Upside105.43% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$27.84M
Tecogen Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tecogen Inc. designs, manufactures, markets, and maintains industrial and commercial cogeneration systems for residential, commercial, recreational, and industrial use in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: P...
How the Company Makes Money
Tecogen makes money primarily through (1) product and project revenue from selling and delivering distributed energy systems and (2) recurring service revenue from maintaining those systems after installation. Product/project revenue generally inc...
Tecogen Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presented a mixed picture: meaningful near‑term financial headwinds (declining revenue, widened net loss, margin pressure in services and energy production, and higher operating costs) contrast with encouraging commercial developments (imminent Vertiv PO, $8M+ approved non-data-center projects with $2.3M in POs, growing customer interest and demos, and a sizable data center pipeline). While management has clear plans to reduce service OpEx, convert backlog, and scale manufacturing (targeting ~100 chillers/year run rate), many of the commercial positives are prospective and subject to timing and execution risk. Given the significant current financial deterioration and dependence on anticipated deposits and conversions, the near-term tone is cautious despite promising commercial momentum.Positive Updates
Imminent Vertiv Purchase Order and Demonstration Deployment
Vertiv has approved purchasing 1 megawatt of cooling using Tecogen chillers; the PO is in process and expected imminently. The unit will be permanently installed at a Vertiv facility and used as a showcase/demo to prospective data center customers, increasing visibility and credibility in the data center market.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Total revenues decreased by $0.9 million, or 12.9% YoY, to $6.4 million in Q1 2026 from $7.3 million in Q1 2025, driven primarily by lower product shipments and project timing delays.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Imminent Vertiv Purchase Order and Demonstration Deployment
Vertiv has approved purchasing 1 megawatt of cooling using Tecogen chillers; the PO is in process and expected imminently. The unit will be permanently installed at a Vertiv facility and used as a showcase/demo to prospective data center customers, increasing visibility and credibility in the data center market.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance emphasized margin and cash improvements and near-term project conversions: Q1 2026 revenue was $6.4M (down $0.9M or 12.9% YoY) with gross profit $2.6M (down ~20% YoY) and company gross margin back above its 40% target at 40.9%; Products revenue fell 54% to $1.2M (products gross margin 44.9%, +3.6 pts), Services revenue rose 9% to $4.6M (services margin 41.8%, -5 pts), and Energy Production was $520k (+5%) with margin 23.9% (down from 37.9%); operating expenses rose ~24% driving a net loss of $2.2M (vs $0.7M) and an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $1.7M (vs ~$0.4M), and cash was ~$9.3M at quarter end (~$8.5M presently); management said higher Q1 OpEx reflects R&D, marketing and manufacturing headcount that will convert to COGS as volumes rise, cost-reduction actions should begin reducing costs in Q2 and take fuller effect in Q3, an imminent Vertiv PO for 1 MW of cooling is expected to ship before the end of Q2, the company has ~ $8M+ of approved non-data-center projects (with $2.3M in POs in hand and the remainder/deposits expected in 30–45 days), and manufacturing capacity can scale to roughly 100 chillers/year with a 3–6 month ramp.Tecogen Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 26.13M | 27.07M | 22.62M | 25.14M | 25.00M | 24.40M |
| Gross Profit | 9.19M | 9.82M | 9.87M | 10.20M | 11.07M | 11.59M |
| EBITDA | -7.56M | -7.20M | -3.98M | -3.85M | -1.90M | 4.27M |
| Net Income | -9.71M | -8.25M | -4.76M | -4.60M | -2.45M | 3.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 34.46M | 36.99M | 31.09M | 27.79M | 28.25M | 32.36M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.33M | 12.43M | 5.41M | 1.35M | 1.91M | 3.61M |
| Total Debt | 2.86M | 2.82M | 3.73M | 1.48M | 1.31M | 1.96M |
| Total Liabilities | 14.92M | 15.52M | 20.97M | 13.14M | 9.27M | 11.23M |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.71M | 21.65M | 10.23M | 14.75M | 19.09M | 21.21M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -12.16M | -10.31M | 3.09M | -864.66K | -1.70M | 310.49K |
| Operating Cash Flow | -11.85M | -9.91M | 4.06M | -817.81K | -1.35M | 465.03K |
| Investing Cash Flow | -248.88K | -464.13K | -1.01M | -244.89K | -348.56K | -215.06K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 17.36M | 17.40M | 1.01M | 500.00K | 0.00 | 1.87M |
Tecogen Technical Analysis
Positive
4.30
Price Trends
4.21
Positive
4.01
Positive
5.81
Positive
Market Momentum
0.56
Negative
61.50
Neutral
61.13
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TGEN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.47, above the 50-day MA of 4.21, and below the 200-day MA of 5.81, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.56 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TGEN.
Tecogen Risk Analysis
Tecogen disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tecogen reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Tecogen Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $173.61M | 14.99 | 20.38% | 3.00% | -8.09% | 42.56% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $120.76M | -14.70 | -6.14% | ― | 8.42% | -254.85% | |
59 Neutral | $1.15B | -5.70 | -26.54% | ― | 48.29% | 11.56% | |
53 Neutral | $185.79M | -19.10 | -51.16% | ― | 10.21% | -94.23% | |
45 Neutral | $83.29M | -6.84 | -142.24% | ― | 324.67% | -158.36% | |
43 Neutral | $24.12M | -1.32 | 209.00% | ― | ― | 72.29% |
* Industrials Sector Average
TGEN
Tecogen
6.21
1.52
32.41%
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57.95
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ULBI
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7.25
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SDST
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2.28
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NEOV
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1.95
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Tecogen Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Tecogen Reports Wider Q1 Loss Amid Product Weakness
Negative
May 12, 2026
Tecogen reported first‑quarter 2026 revenue of $6.34 million and a net loss of $2.12 million for the period ended March 31, 2026, widening from a $0.66 million loss a year earlier as product revenue and margins declined and operating expense...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Tecogen Extends Advisory Agreement with John N. Hatsopoulos
Positive
Apr 8, 2026
On April 8, 2026, Tecogen Inc. extended the term of its Advisory Agreement with long-time adviser John N. Hatsopoulos through March 31, 2028, continuing a relationship that was originally established in January 2018 and previously amended in 2019 ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Tecogen Reports 2025 Results, Highlights Data Center Pivot
Negative
Mar 18, 2026
Tecogen Inc., a North Billerica, Mass.-based clean energy equipment maker specializing in high-efficiency cogeneration, air conditioning and water heating systems, serves residential, commercial, recreational and industrial customers across North ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.