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Stardust Power (SDST)
NASDAQ:SDST
US Market

Stardust Power (SDST) AI Stock Analysis

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SDST

Stardust Power

(NASDAQ:SDST)

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Neutral 51 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▲(25.70% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/31/26
Score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (no revenue, large losses, negative equity, and ongoing cash burn). Offsetting factors include improving technical momentum and a series of positive corporate milestones (permitting, project validation, and financing/leadership steps), but valuation remains challenged due to losses and lack of dividend support.
Positive Factors
Regulatory permit reduces timeline risk
The air quality construction permit removes a key regulatory hurdle, materially lowering timeline and execution risk for the Muskogee refinery. This durable approval improves project bankability, supports pursuit of FID and construction, and strengthens the firm's competitive position in U.S. lithium supply.
Independent engineering validation
An independent Black & Veatch engineering review validating technical design and achievable production targets reduces execution and technology risk. This lasting credential aids lender and offtake diligence, enhancing access to project financing and long-term credibility with industry partners and stakeholders.
Supply LOI strengthens feedstock access
A 7,500 tpa supply letter of intent supports feedstock security for initial production phases, lowering raw-material risk and improving the project’s supply-chain resilience. Durable supply alignment with a domestic provider enhances commercial viability and attractiveness to customers and financiers over time.
Negative Factors
No revenue, negative gross profit
Absent revenue and persistently negative gross profit indicate a pre‑commercial profile and deteriorating earnings quality. Sustained losses erode operating leverage, impede reinvestment capacity, and require external funding to reach commercial production, raising long‑term execution and survival risk.
Negative stockholders' equity
Negative equity across multiple years signals an impaired capital base and weak balance-sheet resilience. This structural deficit constrains financing options, increases dilution risk for existing shareholders, and reduces the company's ability to absorb shocks during multi‑year project development.
Secured convertible debt raises dilution and lien risk
Senior secured convertible debt improves near-term liquidity but creates asset liens and potential equity dilution upon conversion. The structure may limit future financing flexibility, prioritize creditor claims in stress scenarios, and impose cash/stock repayment dynamics that strain resources during long project ramp phases.

Stardust Power (SDST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Stardust Power Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionStardust Power Inc. develops battery-grade lithium products designed to supply the electric vehicle (EV) industry. It is developing a central lithium refinery in Muskogee, Oklahoma for producing battery-grade lithium. The company is based in Greenwich, Connecticut.
How the Company Makes MoneyStardust Power generates revenue primarily through the sale and installation of its solar panels and wind turbines. Additionally, the company offers energy management systems and maintenance services, creating a recurring revenue stream from service contracts. Key partnerships with utility companies and government agencies also play a significant role in the company's earnings, as they facilitate large-scale renewable energy projects and provide access to subsidies and incentives for clean energy adoption.

Stardust Power Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financial profile is very weak: the company reports no revenue, sustained and widening net losses (about ~$23.8M in 2024 and ~$21.5M TTM), consistently negative operating and free cash flow (cash burn), and negative stockholders’ equity in 2023–TTM, implying elevated financing/dilution risk despite reduced debt in TTM.
Income Statement
8
Very Negative
Across annual periods and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), the company reports no revenue and negative gross profit, indicating a pre-commercial or non-operating profile. Losses have widened materially versus 2023 (net loss of about $3.8M in 2023 to ~$23.8M in 2024 and ~$21.5M in TTM), suggesting rising operating costs without offsetting sales. While 2021–2022 show positive net income, the shift to large losses in 2023–TTM signals weak earnings quality and a deteriorating profitability trajectory.
Balance Sheet
15
Very Negative
The balance sheet shows meaningful stress: stockholders’ equity is negative in 2023, 2024, and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), which reduces financial flexibility and increases dilution/financing risk. Total debt improved sharply in TTM (~$0.3M) versus 2024 (~$10.0M), but negative equity still implies an impaired capital base. Total assets are relatively small in TTM (~$10.0M), and returns on equity are not economically informative given the negative equity position.
Cash Flow
10
Very Negative
Cash generation remains weak, with operating cash flow negative in every period shown (about -$3.0M in 2023, -$9.7M in 2024, and -$7.8M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)). Free cash flow is also consistently negative and worsened in TTM versus 2024 (roughly -$13.2M vs -$12.4M), indicating ongoing cash burn and continued funding needs. Although free cash flow is less negative than net income (free cash flow to net income above 1.0 in 2023–TTM), the core issue remains persistent negative operating cash flow.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue0.000.000.000.000.00
Gross Profit-3.07K-1.82K-6.000.000.00
EBITDA-13.49M-16.12M-3.79M15.07M4.70M
Net Income-21.54M-23.75M-3.79M15.07M4.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets10.04M9.02M3.02M304.78M301.10M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.59M912.57K1.27M101.00K842.00K
Total Debt304.67K10.01M5.29M785.00K0.00
Total Liabilities15.16M28.41M6.76M14.84M26.23M
Stockholders Equity-5.12M-19.39M-3.73M289.94M274.87M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-13.24M-12.37M-3.09M-1.53M-1.04M
Operating Cash Flow-7.75M-9.72M-2.98M-1.53M-1.04M
Investing Cash Flow-6.51M-4.79M-301.97K0.00-300.00M
Financing Cash Flow14.27M14.15M4.56M785.00K301.87M

Stardust Power Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price3.58
Price Trends
50DMA
3.68
Negative
100DMA
3.88
Negative
200DMA
4.01
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.08
Positive
RSI
46.30
Neutral
STOCH
53.43
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SDST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.87, below the 50-day MA of 3.68, and below the 200-day MA of 4.01, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SDST.

Stardust Power Risk Analysis

Stardust Power disclosed 98 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Stardust Power reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Stardust Power Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
54
Neutral
$52.16M-8.61-34.79%-12.77%23.37%
51
Neutral
$35.53M-0.9661.78%
44
Neutral
$30.32M-0.0918.24%24.49%
43
Neutral
$40.27M-0.31-265.36%-3.53%24.37%
40
Underperform
$3.75M-0.44-119.92%-44.32%-49.47%
26
Underperform
$25.64M-0.8398.03%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SDST
Stardust Power
3.58
-3.68
-50.69%
OESX
Orion Energy Systems
12.10
3.20
35.92%
POLA
Polar Power
1.53
-1.32
-46.32%
GWH
ESS Tech
1.54
-2.76
-64.19%
DFLI
Dragonfly Energy Holdings Corp
2.48
-18.82
-88.36%
STI
Solidion Technology
3.91
-13.92
-78.07%

Stardust Power Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Stardust Power Strengthens Leadership With New General Counsel
Positive
Jan 30, 2026

On January 26, 2026, Stardust Power appointed veteran mining and energy-sector lawyer Bruce Czachor as General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer and Secretary, strengthening its legal and governance capabilities as it pushes ahead with its Muskogee lithium refinery project. Czachor, who brings more than three decades of experience including senior roles at Piedmont Lithium and other resource companies, will oversee legal, regulatory and corporate governance matters under an executive package that aligns him with shareholders through equity grants and provides enhanced severance protections around potential change-of-control events, underlining the strategic importance of his role as the company advances execution and capital formation plans for one of the largest planned lithium refineries in the U.S.

The most recent analyst rating on (SDST) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stardust Power stock, see the SDST Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Stardust Power Secures Key Permit for Lithium Refinery
Positive
Jan 20, 2026

On January 20, 2026, Stardust Power Inc. announced it had secured an air quality construction permit from the Oklahoma Department of Environmental Quality for its Muskogee lithium refinery, completing the key environmental approvals required for construction and commissioning. The permit, which follows a comprehensive technical and public review, confirms the facility as a minor emissions source, validates its closed-loop water system and lack of wastewater discharge, and supplements prior stormwater and wastewater determinations, materially reducing regulatory timeline risk for what is positioned to be one of the largest lithium refineries in the United States. With construction permitting now complete and a final investment decision pending project financing, the company is poised to move into major construction on a plant expected to produce up to 50,000 metric tons per year of battery-grade lithium carbonate, a development that underscores the scarcity of fully permitted large-scale U.S. lithium refining projects and signals a potential boost to domestic clean energy supply chains, job creation, and Oklahoma’s energy infrastructure.

The most recent analyst rating on (SDST) stock is a Hold with a $3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stardust Power stock, see the SDST Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Stardust Power Secures Convertible Debt for Lithium Refinery
Positive
Dec 31, 2025

On December 23, 2025, Stardust Power Inc. entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement with Lind Global Asset Management XIII LLC, securing approximately $4.0 million in gross proceeds through the issuance of a $4.8 million senior secured convertible promissory note and an accompanying warrant, with the debt secured by all company assets and subsidiary guarantees and structured for repayment over 20 monthly installments in cash, stock, or a combination. On December 24, 2025, the company announced that this financing forms part of a facility of up to $15.0 million in senior secured convertible debt intended to provide flexible, potentially bridge, capital for early-stage engineering, infrastructure, procurement, and other pre-construction activities at its Muskogee, Oklahoma lithium refinery project, as it builds a broader project-level capital stack aimed at advancing the refinery toward construction while seeking to limit dilution for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SDST) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stardust Power stock, see the SDST Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Stardust Power Ends Stock Purchase Agreement
Neutral
Dec 17, 2025

On December 11, 2025, Stardust Power Inc. and B. Riley Principal Capital II, LLC mutually terminated their Common Stock Purchase Agreement originally established in October 2024, along with associated rights agreements. This decision, driven by Stardust Power’s goal of adopting more flexible and non-dilutive financing alternatives, involves a make-whole payment of $471,942.90 to be completed in three structured portions. The termination allows Stardust Power to realign its funding strategy with its current capital objectives, although the company maintains a positive relationship with the investor for potential future arrangements.

The most recent analyst rating on (SDST) stock is a Buy with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stardust Power stock, see the SDST Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Stardust Power Advances Muskogee Refinery Project
Positive
Dec 16, 2025

On December 10, 2025, Stardust Power announced the completion of an independent engineering review of its Muskogee lithium carbonate refinery project by Black & Veatch. The review confirmed that the project’s technical and design assumptions meet industry standards and that initial production targets are achievable. This validation supports Stardust Power’s plans to construct a 50,000 metric-ton-per-annum facility, starting with a Phase 1 production of 25,000 metric tons per year. The review also found low technical and design risk, affirming the project’s feasibility and aligning with industry practices. This milestone advances the project towards major construction, enhancing Stardust Power’s position in the market and providing confidence to investors and stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SDST) stock is a Buy with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stardust Power stock, see the SDST Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Stardust Power Announces Lithium Supply Agreement
Positive
Nov 3, 2025

On November 3, 2025, Stardust Power Inc. announced a non-binding letter of intent with Mandrake Resources Limited to supply 7,500 metric tons per annum of lithium carbonate equivalent in the form of lithium chloride from Mandrake’s Utah Lithium Project. This agreement, subject to a definitive purchase agreement, aims to strengthen Stardust Power’s U.S. lithium supply chain and support its operations at the Muskogee, Oklahoma site. The strategic alignment with Mandrake’s project, which benefits from existing infrastructure and regulatory support, enhances Stardust Power’s position as a central hub for domestic lithium supply, reducing development risk and improving financing options.

The most recent analyst rating on (SDST) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stardust Power stock, see the SDST Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing Changes
Stardust Power Transfers to Nasdaq Capital Market
Neutral
Oct 31, 2025

On October 27, 2025, Stardust Power Inc. received approval from Nasdaq to transfer its common stock listing from the Nasdaq Global Market to the Nasdaq Capital Market, effective October 29, 2025. This move, which confirms the company’s compliance with Nasdaq’s listing requirements, cancels a previously scheduled appeal hearing. The transfer does not impact Stardust Power’s business operations or reporting obligations. The company continues to advance its project milestones towards a Final Investment Decision, aiming to deliver one of America’s largest lithium refineries.

The most recent analyst rating on (SDST) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stardust Power stock, see the SDST Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 31, 2026