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Stardust Power (SDST)
NASDAQ:SDST
US Market

Stardust Power (SDST) AI Stock Analysis

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SDST

Stardust Power

(NASDAQ:SDST)

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Neutral 43 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
$3.50
▼(-7.41% Downside)
The score is primarily weighed down by very weak financial performance (no revenue, large losses, negative equity, and persistent cash burn). Technicals are also soft with the stock below key longer-term moving averages and negative MACD. Corporate events provide some support through project validation and supply/financing progress, but they do not offset the current financial strain and funding needs.
Positive Factors
Engineering validation
An independent Black & Veatch engineering review reduces long‑term execution risk by validating design assumptions and achievable production targets. This materially strengthens project bankability, improves odds of reaching FID, and supports lasting confidence from lenders, partners, and offtake counterparties.
Pre-construction financing facility
Access to an initial $4M and a $15M convertible debt facility provides durable bridge capital to fund engineering, procurement, and early construction milestones. This financing reduces short‑term funding risk and enables milestone delivery that can unlock larger project financing and commercial progress toward production.
Feedstock supply LOIs
Non-binding supply commitments for feedstock materially strengthen the company’s domestic supply chain, lowering feedstock scarcity risk and enhancing the refinery’s long‑term commercial viability. Reliable input access improves financing prospects and underpins sustainable operations once production begins.
Negative Factors
Negative stockholders' equity
Sustained negative equity indicates an impaired capital base that reduces financial resilience. Over months, this constrains the company’s ability to secure favorable financing, increases creditor scrutiny, and raises the likelihood of dilutive capital raises or restructuring to restore solvency and support project development.
Persistent operating cash burn
Recurring negative operating and free cash flow signals ongoing reliance on external capital to reach construction and commercialization. This structural cash burn heightens funding risk, may force frequent capital raises on unfavorable terms, and could delay or impair project timelines and long‑term value creation.
Secured convertible debt risks
While providing liquidity, senior secured convertible debt places liens on assets, raising leverage and priority claims that can limit future financing options. The convertible feature and attached warrants create dilution risk for equity holders and can complicate capital structure and partner negotiations over the medium term.

Stardust Power (SDST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Stardust Power Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionStardust Power Inc. develops battery-grade lithium products designed to supply the electric vehicle (EV) industry. It is developing a central lithium refinery in Muskogee, Oklahoma for producing battery-grade lithium. The company is based in Greenwich, Connecticut.
How the Company Makes MoneyStardust Power generates revenue primarily through the sale and installation of its solar panels and wind turbines. Additionally, the company offers energy management systems and maintenance services, creating a recurring revenue stream from service contracts. Key partnerships with utility companies and government agencies also play a significant role in the company's earnings, as they facilitate large-scale renewable energy projects and provide access to subsidies and incentives for clean energy adoption.

Stardust Power Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Stardust Power faces significant financial challenges across all aspects of its financial statements. The absence of revenue, compounded by consistent operating and net losses, negative equity, and poor cash flow, paints a concerning picture of the company's financial health.
Income Statement
8
Very Negative
Stardust Power shows a troubling income statement with no revenue over the past years, leading to negative EBIT, EBITDA, and net income figures. The lack of revenue growth and persistent losses indicate significant challenges in generating income.
Balance Sheet
15
Very Negative
The balance sheet reveals a precarious financial position, marked by negative stockholders' equity and high debt levels. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is undefined due to negative equity, highlighting financial instability.
Cash Flow
10
Very Negative
The cash flow analysis underscores severe cash flow issues, with negative free cash flow and operating cash flow. The inability to generate positive cash flow from operations is a critical concern.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue0.000.000.000.000.00
Gross Profit-3.07K-1.82K-6.000.000.00
EBITDA-13.49M-16.12M-3.79M15.07M4.70M
Net Income-21.54M-23.75M-3.79M15.07M4.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets10.04M9.02M3.02M304.78M301.10M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.59M912.57K1.27M101.00K842.00K
Total Debt304.67K10.01M5.29M785.00K0.00
Total Liabilities15.16M28.41M6.76M14.84M26.23M
Stockholders Equity-5.12M-19.39M-3.73M289.94M274.87M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-13.24M-12.37M-3.09M-1.53M-1.04M
Operating Cash Flow-7.75M-9.72M-2.98M-1.53M-1.04M
Investing Cash Flow-6.51M-4.79M-301.97K0.00-300.00M
Financing Cash Flow14.27M14.15M4.56M785.00K301.87M

Stardust Power Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price3.78
Price Trends
50DMA
3.56
Positive
100DMA
3.72
Positive
200DMA
4.17
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.07
Negative
RSI
55.72
Neutral
STOCH
56.12
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SDST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.45, above the 50-day MA of 3.56, and below the 200-day MA of 4.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SDST.

Stardust Power Risk Analysis

Stardust Power disclosed 98 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Stardust Power reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Stardust Power Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
56
Neutral
$58.86M-8.86-45.94%-12.77%23.37%
43
Neutral
$37.11M-0.9861.78%
43
Neutral
$36.10M-0.36-265.36%-3.53%24.37%
41
Neutral
$4.47M-0.49-119.92%-44.32%-49.47%
38
Underperform
$49.04M-0.1318.24%24.49%
26
Underperform
$62.15M-2.1698.03%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SDST
Stardust Power
3.78
-14.32
-79.12%
OESX
Orion Energy Systems
16.67
8.49
103.79%
POLA
Polar Power
1.68
-1.51
-47.34%
GWH
ESS Tech
1.84
-3.59
-66.11%
DFLI
Dragonfly Energy Holdings Corp
4.06
-21.64
-84.20%
STI
Solidion Technology
8.33
-14.64
-63.74%

Stardust Power Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Stardust Power Secures Convertible Debt for Lithium Refinery
Positive
Dec 31, 2025

On December 23, 2025, Stardust Power Inc. entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement with Lind Global Asset Management XIII LLC, securing approximately $4.0 million in gross proceeds through the issuance of a $4.8 million senior secured convertible promissory note and an accompanying warrant, with the debt secured by all company assets and subsidiary guarantees and structured for repayment over 20 monthly installments in cash, stock, or a combination. On December 24, 2025, the company announced that this financing forms part of a facility of up to $15.0 million in senior secured convertible debt intended to provide flexible, potentially bridge, capital for early-stage engineering, infrastructure, procurement, and other pre-construction activities at its Muskogee, Oklahoma lithium refinery project, as it builds a broader project-level capital stack aimed at advancing the refinery toward construction while seeking to limit dilution for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SDST) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stardust Power stock, see the SDST Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Stardust Power Ends Stock Purchase Agreement
Neutral
Dec 17, 2025

On December 11, 2025, Stardust Power Inc. and B. Riley Principal Capital II, LLC mutually terminated their Common Stock Purchase Agreement originally established in October 2024, along with associated rights agreements. This decision, driven by Stardust Power’s goal of adopting more flexible and non-dilutive financing alternatives, involves a make-whole payment of $471,942.90 to be completed in three structured portions. The termination allows Stardust Power to realign its funding strategy with its current capital objectives, although the company maintains a positive relationship with the investor for potential future arrangements.

The most recent analyst rating on (SDST) stock is a Buy with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stardust Power stock, see the SDST Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Stardust Power Advances Muskogee Refinery Project
Positive
Dec 16, 2025

On December 10, 2025, Stardust Power announced the completion of an independent engineering review of its Muskogee lithium carbonate refinery project by Black & Veatch. The review confirmed that the project’s technical and design assumptions meet industry standards and that initial production targets are achievable. This validation supports Stardust Power’s plans to construct a 50,000 metric-ton-per-annum facility, starting with a Phase 1 production of 25,000 metric tons per year. The review also found low technical and design risk, affirming the project’s feasibility and aligning with industry practices. This milestone advances the project towards major construction, enhancing Stardust Power’s position in the market and providing confidence to investors and stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SDST) stock is a Buy with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stardust Power stock, see the SDST Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Stardust Power Announces Lithium Supply Agreement
Positive
Nov 3, 2025

On November 3, 2025, Stardust Power Inc. announced a non-binding letter of intent with Mandrake Resources Limited to supply 7,500 metric tons per annum of lithium carbonate equivalent in the form of lithium chloride from Mandrake’s Utah Lithium Project. This agreement, subject to a definitive purchase agreement, aims to strengthen Stardust Power’s U.S. lithium supply chain and support its operations at the Muskogee, Oklahoma site. The strategic alignment with Mandrake’s project, which benefits from existing infrastructure and regulatory support, enhances Stardust Power’s position as a central hub for domestic lithium supply, reducing development risk and improving financing options.

The most recent analyst rating on (SDST) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stardust Power stock, see the SDST Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing Changes
Stardust Power Transfers to Nasdaq Capital Market
Neutral
Oct 31, 2025

On October 27, 2025, Stardust Power Inc. received approval from Nasdaq to transfer its common stock listing from the Nasdaq Global Market to the Nasdaq Capital Market, effective October 29, 2025. This move, which confirms the company’s compliance with Nasdaq’s listing requirements, cancels a previously scheduled appeal hearing. The transfer does not impact Stardust Power’s business operations or reporting obligations. The company continues to advance its project milestones towards a Final Investment Decision, aiming to deliver one of America’s largest lithium refineries.

The most recent analyst rating on (SDST) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stardust Power stock, see the SDST Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Stardust Power Enters Warrant Exchange Agreement
Neutral
Oct 30, 2025

On October 30, 2025, Stardust Power Inc. entered into a Warrant Exchange Agreement with an institutional investor, allowing the investor to exchange its existing warrants for newly issued shares of common stock. This exchange, involving 958,400 warrant shares converted into 730,689 shares of common stock, is set to close shortly after the agreement date. The transaction will result in the cancellation of the existing warrants and will not generate any cash proceeds for the company, as it relies on an exemption from registration under the Securities Act of 1933.

The most recent analyst rating on (SDST) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stardust Power stock, see the SDST Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Stardust Power Signs Intent with Prairie Lithium
Positive
Oct 21, 2025

On October 21, 2025, Stardust Power announced a non-binding letter of intent with Prairie Lithium Limited for the supply of 6,000 metric tons per annum of lithium carbonate equivalent in the form of lithium chloride. This agreement, which is subject to a definitive agreement, marks a significant step for Stardust Power as it accelerates its business model and strengthens its position in the North American lithium supply chain. The supply will be delivered to the Port of Muskogee’s Free Trade Zone, offering strategic advantages such as tariff exemptions. Initial deliveries are expected to begin in 2027, with the agreement spanning an initial six-year term and options for extensions. This move is expected to enhance Stardust Power’s commercial position, unlock new financing avenues, and support the company’s transition from development to operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (SDST) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stardust Power stock, see the SDST Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 04, 2026