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Takeda Pharmaceutical Company (TAK)
NYSE:TAK
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Takeda Pharmaceutical Company
(NYSE:TAK)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$18.00
▲(27.84% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/02/26
The score is anchored by solid cash generation and a stable balance-sheet profile, but is held back by materially weakened profitability/returns. Technicals are supportive but look overextended, while valuation is a key drag due to a very high P/E; the earnings call adds modest support from strong pipeline progress and improved FCF outlook despite near-term revenue headwinds.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Takeda's sizable adjusted free cash flow and upgraded FCF outlook indicate durable internal funding for R&D, launches and debt service. Reliable FCF reduces reliance on external financing, enabling sustained investment in pipeline commercialization and balance-sheet flexibility over the medium term.
Launch portfolio driving revenue mix
More than half of revenue now comes from growth and recent launches, which expanded 6.7% CER. This diversification away from legacy brands supports more sustainable top-line resilience and provides a structural growth engine as new assets scale through commercialization and broader market access.
Late-stage pipeline de-risking
Three successful Phase III programs with filings or NDAs materially de-risk near-term R&D outcomes. Successful approvals would replenish growth after LOE, extend lifecycle value, and support medium-term revenue and margin recovery as newly approved specialty assets reach commercialization.
Negative Factors
Material profitability deterioration
Return metrics and net margins have eroded meaningfully, indicating weaker earnings power relative to the capital base. Persistently low ROE and compressed net margins reduce capital efficiency, constrain reinvestment capacity and raise the bar for sustaining shareholder returns absent recovery in core profitability.
Loss of exclusivity on VYVANSE
VYVANSE LOE has caused tangible top-line pressure and lowered near-term revenue guidance. Sustained generic share loss in a major CNS product creates structural revenue holes that must be filled by launches and pipeline success, amplifying execution risk over the next several quarters.
Pricing & reimbursement risk for ENTYVIO
ENTYVIO's selection for IRA negotiation introduces structural downside to future pricing and peak sales in the U.S. Potential mandated price reductions materially affect long-term revenue prospects for a key product and raise uncertainty around realized value from what is otherwise a growth franchise.
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company (TAK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$58.99B
Dividend Yield3.86%
Average Volume (3M)3.09M
Price to Earnings (P/E)75.7
Beta (1Y)0.06
Revenue Growth-1.98%
EPS Growth-86.20%
CountryUS
Employees49,281
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.21
Shares Outstanding3,182,162,400
10 Day Avg. Volume2,308,881
30 Day Avg. Volume3,087,088
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.57
Price to Book (P/B)1.03
Price to Sales (P/S)1.56
P/FCF Ratio8.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap226.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.98
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.81
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.61
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.00Price Target Upside27.84% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)$29.27B
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionTakeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products in Japan, the United States, Europe, Canada, Latin America, Russia, rest of Asia, and internationally. It offers pharmaceutical products in the areas of gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma derived therapies, oncology, and neuroscience. The company provides its products under the Entyvio, Gattex/Revestive, Takecab, Alofisel, Dexilant, Natpara, Adynovate/Adynovi, Takhzyro, Livtencity, Elaprase, Replagal, Advate, Vpriv, Gammagard Liquid/Kiovig, Hyqvia, Cuvitru, Exkivity, Velcade, Leuplin/Enantone, Adcetris, Vyvansese, Trintellix, and Alunbrig brands. Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited has out-licensing agreement with Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.; collaborations and in-licensing agreements with the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc., and Ovid Therapeutics Inc.; and collaboration with Evox Therapeutics Ltd., as well as a licensing agreement with ProThera Biologics Inc. It also has research collaboration and licensing agreement with Crescendo Biologics, Code Bio, Immusoft, Poseida Therapeutics, Selecta Biosciences, BridGene Biosciences, Skyhawk Therapeutics, and StrideBio; and strategic alliances with Egle Therapeutics SAS; Evotec SE; Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.; Carmine Therapeutics; KSQ Therapeutics; and Anima Biotech. Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited was founded in 1781 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyTakeda generates revenue primarily through the sale of prescription pharmaceuticals, which are developed and marketed for various therapeutic areas, including oncology, gastrointestinal disorders, and rare diseases. The company has a robust pipeline of drugs that contribute to its revenue stream through both new product launches and ongoing sales of established medications. Additionally, Takeda engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies, research institutions, and biotech firms, which can provide additional revenue through licensing agreements and joint ventures. The company also benefits from its focus on biologics and specialty medicines, which generally have higher price points and demand. Furthermore, Takeda's global presence allows it to tap into diverse markets, enhancing its overall sales potential and stability.
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes income from different business units, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating areas of strategic focus or potential vulnerability.
Analyzes income from different business units, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating areas of strategic focus or potential vulnerability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTakeda Pharmaceutical Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted significant strategic and operational positives: three high-impact Phase III successes with NDAs submitted or filings underway, strong cash generation (adjusted free cash flow JPY 625.9bn), growth across several launch products (growth & launch products +6.7% CER; ENTYVIO +7.4% CER; QDENGA +22.1%) and maintained core OP/core EPS guidance through disciplined cost management. Offsetting these positives are meaningful near-term top-line pressures from VYVANSE LOE (9M revenue −3.3%), slowing growth in some legacy products (TAKHZYRO +2.4% CER), policy and reimbursement headwinds (Medicare Part D effects, ENTYVIO selected for IRA), China albumin softness and increased near-term investment needs for launches. Overall, the strategic R&D wins and strong cash flow provide a favorable outlook, but material near-term revenue and pricing risks remain.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Late-stage R&D Success — Three Positive Phase III Readouts
Takeda reported positive Phase III results for oveporexton, rusfertide and zasocitinib in 2025, each meeting or exceeding expectations. Oveporexton: ~85% of patients reached normative Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) with statistically significant improvements across 14 primary/secondary endpoints; NDA submitted. Rusfertide: durable hematocrit control <45% through 52 weeks with improved patient-reported outcomes; NDA submitted. Zasocitinib: rapid efficacy (PASI75 within 4 weeks), >50% PASI90 at week 16 and ~30% PASI100; regulatory filing preparations underway with expected launch in H1 CY2027.
Growth & Launch Products Driving Revenue
Growth and launch products represent over 50% of total revenue and grew 6.7% at constant exchange rate (CER) year-to-date, an improvement versus the ~5% growth seen in Q1 and Q2.
ENTYVIO Momentum and Access Gains
ENTYVIO grew 7.4% at CER year-to-date. ENTYVIO Pen achieved formulary coverage with all three large PBMs and commercial coverage >80%, supporting management's position to be on track for its full-year 6% growth projection.
Strong Adjusted Free Cash Flow and Upgraded FCF Outlook
Adjusted free cash flow for the period was JPY 625.9 billion, generated even after a USD 1.2 billion upfront payment to Innovent Biologics in December; management upgraded the adjusted free cash flow forecast for the full year.
Maintained Core Profitability Targets Despite Headwinds
Management revised revenue guidance (to a low single-digit decline at CER) due to stronger-than-anticipated VYVANSE generic erosion, but maintained full-year guidance for core operating profit (core OP) and core EPS through disciplined OpEx management and cost efficiencies.
Updated Financial Guidance and Forecast Upside
Full-year revenue forecast set at JPY 4.53 trillion; core OP forecast JPY 1.15 trillion; core EPS forecast JPY 486. Management also noted a net increase to forecasts from FX and momentum (revenue +JPY 30 billion; core OP +JPY 20 billion).
Strong Vaccine and Selected Product Growth
QDENGA vaccine growth accelerated to 22.1%, driven primarily by Brazil. Subcutaneous IG products grew double digits, and overall IG was up 4.3% year-to-date. FRUZAQLA continues to expand with global rollout.
Strategic Pipeline Expansion with Innovent Partnership
Takeda added two innovative oncology assets (TAK-928 and TAK-921) via partnership with Innovent, with encouraging early clinical signals and plans for global development; shared investment and staged go/no-go decisions (TAK-928 60/40 split with Innovent).
Negative Updates
Top-line Decline Year-to-Date
Revenue for the 9-month period was just over JPY 3.4 trillion, down 3.3% year-on-year (−2.8% at CER), driven primarily by the impact of VYVANSE loss of exclusivity (LOE).
Core Operating Profit Compression
Core operating profit was JPY 971.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4% (actual FX and CER), with VYVANSE LOE cited as the main reason despite cost controls and OpEx reductions.
VYVANSE Generic Erosion Forcing Revenue Guidance Revision
Stronger-than-anticipated generic erosion of VYVANSE in the U.S. led management to revise revenue guidance to a low single-digit decline at CER, highlighting continued near-term top-line pressure from this LOE.
TakHZYRO Growth Slowing Due to Competition and US Policy
TAKHZYRO growth slowed to 2.4% at CER year-to-date; management attributed weaker U.S. performance to new competing entrants and the headwind from Medicare Part D redesign.
Plasma-derived Therapies and Albumin Softness, China Headwinds
Albumin returned to modest growth of 1.3% but was softer than expected due to reduced demand in China and reallocation pressures; management warned of a possibility of finishing the year below full-year forecast for some PDT components.
IVIG Impacted by Medicare Part D Redesign
IVIG sales were negatively affected by the Medicare Part D redesign in the U.S.; management expects normalization in Q4 but acknowledged a short-term sales headwind.
Regulatory & Pricing Risk — ENTYVIO Selected for IRA Negotiation
ENTYVIO was selected for the third cycle of IRA price negotiations, creating the prospect of substantial Medicare price reductions starting in 2028; management noted uncertainty about the magnitude of the cut and its potential impact on previously stated peak sales ranges.
Near-term Investment Load and Increased R&D Spend Ahead
Management expects higher launch and R&D investments for the three imminent product launches and other late-stage programs, which will increase OpEx load in the near term despite efforts to offset spend through efficiency programs; this creates short-term margin pressure.
Q2 Impairment and Ongoing Asset-level Risks
Reported operating profit was flat year-on-year (JPY 422.4 billion, +1.2%), but Q2 included an impairment related to cell therapy intangible assets; such asset impairment risks remain a potential headwind to reported results.
Company Guidance
Takeda revised FY25 guidance to a low single‑digit revenue decline at constant exchange rates with a revised full‑year revenue forecast of JPY 4.53 trillion, while maintaining core operating profit guidance of JPY 1.15 trillion and core EPS guidance of JPY 486; management also upgraded its adjusted free cash flow outlook after reporting YTD adjusted FCF of JPY 625.9 billion. For the nine months, revenue was just over JPY 3.4 trillion (‑3.3% reported, ‑2.8% CER), core OP was JPY 971.6 billion (‑3.4% YoY), reported OP JPY 422.4 billion (+1.2%), core EPS YTD JPY 428 and reported EPS YTD JPY 137. Growth & launch products (now >50% of sales) grew 6.7% CER (ENTYVIO +7.4% CER; TAKHZYRO +2.4% CER; IG +4.3% YTD with subcutaneous IG double‑digit; albumin +1.3%; QDENGA +22.1%), and management said FX upside added about JPY 30 billion to revenue and JPY 20 billion to core OP — enabling Takeda to hold FY core OP/EPS guidance despite stronger‑than‑anticipated VYVANSE generic erosion while maintaining OpEx discipline and investing for multiple upcoming launches.Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong absolute operating and free cash flow supports financial resilience, and leverage appears manageable. However, profitability and returns have deteriorated sharply (very low TTM net margin and ROE), which is a material earnings-quality concern despite solid gross margins.Income Statement
Revenue has grown over time (annual growth positive in recent years and +156.4% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), but profitability has weakened materially. Net profit margin has compressed from 11.8% (2021) to 2.4% (2025 annual) and just 0.7% in TTM, while EBIT margin also stepped down versus prior peaks (15.5% in 2021 vs 8.5% TTM). Gross margin remains solid (mid-50s to high-60s), suggesting the main pressure is below gross profit (cost structure, R&D/SG&A, or other items), which is a key earnings-quality risk.56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks manageable for a large pharma profile, with debt-to-equity steady around ~0.65 in both 2025 annual and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), and equity has grown versus earlier years. That said, returns have deteriorated sharply: return on equity fell from 7.3% (2021) to 1.6% (2025 annual) and ~0.5% in TTM, indicating weaker profitability relative to the capital base. The balance sheet appears stable, but the main concern is the earnings power needed to support stronger returns.64
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a relative strength: operating cash flow is sizable (¥1.06T in 2025 annual; ¥1.18T in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)) and free cash flow is strong (¥0.86T in 2025 annual; ¥0.96T TTM). Free cash flow tracks net income reasonably well in the latest periods (free cash flow to net income ~0.81–0.83), supporting earnings quality. However, free cash flow growth is volatile (down in 2023 and 2024, strong rebound in 2025 annual, then slightly negative in TTM), and operating cash flow relative to revenue is moderate (~0.42–0.53), suggesting consistency could improve.67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.49T | 4.58T | 4.26T | 4.03T | 3.57T | 3.20T |
| Gross Profit | 2.79T | 3.00T | 2.83T | 2.78T | 2.46T | 2.20T |
| EBITDA | 1.39T | 1.21T | 1.14T | 1.28T | 1.18T | 983.72B |
| Net Income | 114.75B | 107.93B | 144.07B | 317.02B | 230.06B | 376.00B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.42T | 14.25T | 15.11T | 13.96T | 13.18T | 12.91T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 761.94B | 405.59B | 472.89B | 553.70B | 875.00B | 1.00T |
| Total Debt | 4.86T | 4.52T | 4.84T | 4.38T | 4.35T | 4.64T |
| Total Liabilities | 7.77T | 7.31T | 7.83T | 7.60T | 7.49T | 7.74T |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.65T | 6.94T | 7.27T | 6.35T | 5.68T | 5.17T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 956.59B | 856.39B | 235.61B | 343.47B | 937.07B | 774.46B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.18T | 1.06T | 716.34B | 977.16B | 1.12T | 1.01T |
| Investing Cash Flow | -348.98B | -367.06B | -463.86B | -607.10B | -198.13B | 393.53B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -698.18B | -751.42B | -354.42B | -709.15B | -1.07T | -1.09T |
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Technical Analysis
Positive
14.08
Price Trends
16.80
Positive
15.44
Positive
15.13
Positive
Market Momentum
0.57
Positive
72.65
Negative
69.60
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TAK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.20, below the 50-day MA of 16.80, and below the 200-day MA of 15.13, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.57 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 72.65 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TAK.
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Risk Analysis
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Takeda Pharmaceutical Company reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $13.27B | 28.33 | 16.38% | ― | 19.61% | 11.36% | |
70 Outperform | $11.77B | 18.45 | ― | 0.64% | 10.63% | 6.35% | |
66 Neutral | $48.59B | 22.58 | 10.38% | 1.74% | 0.58% | 45.74% | |
63 Neutral | $39.41B | 27.82 | 21.37% | ― | -0.25% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $58.99B | 75.67 | 1.62% | 3.86% | -1.98% | -86.20% | |
56 Neutral | $17.19B | ― | -21.08% | 3.99% | -6.40% | -320.23% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
TAK
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company
18.75
4.23
29.09%
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13.26%
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132.25
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15.52%
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33.86
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111.63%
HLN
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11.07
0.68
6.52%
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Corporate Events
Takeda Advances Late-Stage Pipeline with Positive Phase 3 Data
Nov 28, 2025
In November 2025, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company announced significant advancements in its late-stage pipeline, including positive Phase 3 data for rusfertide and oveporexton, targeting polycythemia vera and narcolepsy type 1, respectively. These developments, along with anticipated regulatory submissions and commercialization preparations, are expected to drive substantial growth, with potential peak revenue between USD 10 and 20 billion. The company also highlighted its strategic partnership with Innovent Biologics, reinforcing its commitment to expanding its R&D pipeline and delivering transformative treatments. Additionally, Takeda is undergoing a leadership transition with Julie Kim set to become CEO in June 2026, ensuring continuity and future acceleration.
The most recent analyst rating on (TAK) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Takeda Pharmaceutical Company stock, see the TAK Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.