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Takeda Pharmaceutical Company
(NYSE:TAK)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$17.50
â–˛(1.51% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
TAK scores as a moderate-quality setup driven primarily by steady (but slowing) financial fundamentals and a balanced earnings-call outlook with maintained guidance and pipeline progress. The biggest drag is valuation, with a very high P/E outweighing the benefit of the dividend. Technical indicators are largely neutral, offering limited near-term confirmation either way.
Positive Factors
Late-stage pipeline and regulatory momentum
Multiple late-stage wins and near-term regulatory events materially de-risk growth profile: China ORZEYFUL approval, a U.S. priority review for rusfertide and zasocitinib Phase III success create several independent commercialization opportunities that can offset LOE and mature-product declines over the medium term if launches are executed well.
Negative Factors
Slowing underlying organic growth
Underlying sales and core operating profit declined on a constant-currency basis, indicating the company remains exposed to structural demand pressures and LOE in mature products. Reliance on FX tailwinds and one-offs masks true organic momentum, which must be restored by successful launches to sustainably drive growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Late-stage pipeline and regulatory momentum
Multiple late-stage wins and near-term regulatory events materially de-risk growth profile: China ORZEYFUL approval, a U.S. priority review for rusfertide and zasocitinib Phase III success create several independent commercialization opportunities that can offset LOE and mature-product declines over the medium term if launches are executed well.
Read all positive factors
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes income from different business units, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating areas of strategic focus or potential vulnerability.
Analyzes income from different business units, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating areas of strategic focus or potential vulnerability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTakeda Pharmaceutical Company (TAK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$55.53B
Dividend Yield3.59%
Average Volume (3M)3.18M
Price to Earnings (P/E)48.9
Beta (1Y)0.08
Revenue Growth-0.14%
EPS Growth-208.74%
CountryUS
Employees47,029
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)57.57
Shares Outstanding3,204,095,200
10 Day Avg. Volume4,410,496
30 Day Avg. Volume3,179,635
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.53
Price to Book (P/B)1.19
Price to Sales (P/S)1.94
P/FCF Ratio14.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$21.00Price Target Upside21.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)$29.18B
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited is a prominent global biopharmaceutical entity dedicated to the discovery, development, manufacturing, commercialization, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products. The company's operations extend across a ...
How the Company Makes Money
Takeda makes money primarily by selling prescription medicines and biologic therapies. Revenue is generated through (1) product sales to wholesalers, distributors, hospitals, pharmacies, and government/healthcare systems, with pricing and volume s...
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balances clear operational and clinical momentum against near-term financial and timing headwinds. Financials benefitted materially from FX (+10.2% revenue at actual FX) and management reiterated full-year free cash flow guidance (JPY 650–750 billion) and execution of a transformation program. The quarter highlighted major clinical wins and imminent launches (ORZEYFUL, rusfertide, zasocitinib) and encouraging oncology and specialty pipeline readouts, which underpin medium-term growth confidence. Offsetting this, underlying revenue and core profit declined slightly at constant currency (-0.5% CER), core EPS fell 11.8% at CER (tax-driven), operating cash flow was weaker in Q1 due to working capital effects, and some margin improvement was driven by one-offs and FX. Takeda emphasized readiness for launches, continued transformation, and a December Capital Markets Day to provide further visibility.Positive Updates
Revenue and Core Operating Profit (Reported/Fx)
Revenue JPY 1.22 trillion (+10.2% at actual FX; -0.5% at constant exchange rate, CER). Core operating profit JPY 358.9 billion (+11.5% at actual FX; -0.5% at CER). FX tailwind contributed JPY 118.2 billion to revenue.
Negative Updates
Underlying Revenue and Profit at Constant FX
Core revenue and core operating profit both declined 0.5% at CER in Q1, indicating pressured underlying sales excluding FX benefits (impact from LOE and mature portfolio offsets growth in core brands and new launches).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Core Operating Profit (Reported/Fx)
Revenue JPY 1.22 trillion (+10.2% at actual FX; -0.5% at constant exchange rate, CER). Core operating profit JPY 358.9 billion (+11.5% at actual FX; -0.5% at CER). FX tailwind contributed JPY 118.2 billion to revenue.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Takeda said Q1 results keep the company on track to meet unchanged FY‑26 guidance, reporting revenue of JPY 1.22 trillion (+10.2% at actual FX; -0.5% CER), core operating profit JPY 358.9 billion (+11.5% at actual FX; -0.5% CER), reported operating profit JPY 201.4 billion, core EPS JPY 154 (‑11.8% at CER) and reported EPS JPY 72; core in‑line brands were 58% of revenue and grew 2.3% CER, ENTYVIO grew 4% CER, new launches were 4% of revenue and grew 22.6% CER, and FX contributed JPY 118.2 billion to top‑line growth. Management noted Q1 gross margin improved ~1.4 percentage points and is maintaining a ~65% gross‑margin assumption for the year, operating cash flow was lower YoY (adjusted free cash flow reduced in part by a USD 200 million payment to Protagonist), and full‑year adjusted free cash flow is expected at JPY 650–750 billion, while they continue to protect core operating profit margins and target ROE above 5%.Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.66T | 4.78T | 4.58T | 4.26T | 4.03T | 3.57T |
| Gross Profit | 2.75T | 2.44T | 3.00T | 2.83T | 2.78T | 2.46T |
| EBITDA | 1.27T | 1.42T | 1.21T | 1.14T | 1.28T | 1.18T |
| Net Income | 182.14B | 203.33B | 107.93B | 144.07B | 317.02B | 230.06B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.66T | 15.52T | 14.25T | 15.11T | 13.96T | 13.18T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 527.58B | 597.63B | 405.59B | 472.89B | 553.70B | 875.00B |
| Total Debt | 4.94T | 4.90T | 4.52T | 4.84T | 4.38T | 4.35T |
| Total Liabilities | 8.10T | 7.71T | 7.31T | 7.83T | 7.60T | 7.49T |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.56T | 7.81T | 6.94T | 7.27T | 6.35T | 5.68T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 560.23B | 626.77B | 677.56B | 235.61B | 343.47B | 937.07B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 953.63B | 1.04T | 1.06T | 716.34B | 977.16B | 1.12T |
| Investing Cash Flow | -423.65B | -369.14B | -367.06B | -463.86B | -607.10B | -198.13B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -462.27B | -496.82B | -751.42B | -354.42B | -709.15B | -1.07T |
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Technical Analysis
Positive
17.24
Price Trends
16.37
Positive
16.81
Positive
16.37
Positive
Market Momentum
0.20
Positive
60.98
Neutral
67.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TAK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.06, above the 50-day MA of 16.37, and above the 200-day MA of 16.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TAK.
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Risk Analysis
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Takeda Pharmaceutical Company reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Organizational changes and leadership transitions may cause near-term uncertainty and risk and may not provide the expected benefits on the expected timeline. Q1, 2026
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $16.61B | 23.39 | 21.13% | ― | 34.42% | 102.44% | |
71 Outperform | $40.81B | 55.73 | 9.28% | ― | 4.33% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $43.96B | 19.68 | 10.30% | 1.97% | 4.99% | 12.37% | |
62 Neutral | $10.26B | 29.17 | 8.88% | 0.95% | -6.76% | -44.33% | |
60 Neutral | $55.53B | 48.87 | 2.40% | 3.61% | -0.14% | -208.74% | |
59 Neutral | $18.87B | -45.22 | -2.79% | 2.78% | 4.92% | 87.81% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
TAK
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company
17.55
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TEVA
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36.14
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HLN
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9.93
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6.80%
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Corporate Events
Takeda Files July 2026 Corporate Governance Report Highlighting Full Code Compliance
Jul 9, 2026
On July 9, 2026, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to furnish its latest Corporate Governance Report, underscoring its adherence to Japan’s Corporate Governance Code. The ...
Takeda Updates Articles of Incorporation in June 2026 SEC Filing
Jun 29, 2026
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited, a diversified global drugmaker headquartered in Osaka, spans businesses from pharmaceuticals and medical devices to chemicals, food and beverages, IT services, logistics, publishing and real estate, reflectin...
Takeda Shareholders Approve Dividend and Board Slate at 150th Annual Meeting
Jun 26, 2026
On June 24, 2026, Takeda held its 150th Annual General Meeting of Shareholders, where investors approved all resolutions, including a year-end dividend of 100 yen per common share. The meeting also endorsed a board slate of eight non-audit directo...
Takeda to Revise FY2025 IFRS Earnings Report After U.S. AMITIZA Antitrust Verdict
May 26, 2026
Takeda has notified shareholders that a jury verdict delivered on May 18, 2026, in the AMITIZA (lubiprostone) antitrust litigation in the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts will not trigger revisions to its Japanese Companies Ac...
Takeda Links Executive Pay to R&D Progress and TSR as FY2025 Results Reset Growth Path
May 26, 2026
On May 26, 2026, Takeda filed a Form 6-K detailing its executive compensation framework and recent business performance for fiscal year 2025, underscoring a pay-for-performance model with substantial variable, stock-based incentives tied to financ...
Takeda CEO-Elect Julie Kim Sets Two-Horizon Growth Plan on Back of Strong FY2025 Pipeline and Results
May 26, 2026
Takeda’s CEO-elect Julie Kim used a May 26, 2026 shareholder letter to highlight strong fiscal 2025 progress, including positive Phase 3 results for key assets oveporexton and zasocitinib and regulatory submissions for narcolepsy drug ovepor...
Takeda Details IFRS-Based Financial Notes and Group Restructuring in May 2026 Filing
May 26, 2026
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited is a global biopharmaceutical company headquartered in Tokyo, operating a diversified network of 154 consolidated subsidiaries that span major markets including the U.S., Europe, Canada and China. Its portfoli...
Takeda Sets June 24, 2026 Date for 150th Shareholders’ Meeting and Details Governance Agenda
May 26, 2026
Takeda has called its 150th Annual General Meeting of Shareholders for June 24, 2026, at the Imperial Hotel Osaka, with in-person attendance supplemented by an internet live stream and options to vote electronically or by mail by the June 23, 2026...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.