Takeda Pharmaceutical Company (TAK) AI Stock Analysis

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Takeda Pharmaceutical Company

(NYSE:TAK)

Rating:71Outperform

Price Target:―

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company demonstrates strong financial performance, driven by consistent revenue and profit growth, a solid balance sheet, and effective cash flow management. While the company's technical indicators show moderate bullish momentum, the high P/E ratio raises valuation concerns. The mixed earnings call highlights both promising product launches and challenges from generic competition. Overall, Takeda's strong fundamentals and promising pipeline are somewhat tempered by valuation and competitive pressures, resulting in an overall stock score of 71.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company (TAK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$45.28B

Dividend Yield4.19%

Average Volume (3M)4.24M

Price to Earnings (P/E)46.6

Beta (1Y)0.13

Revenue Growth1.92%

EPS Growth6.40%

CountryUS

Employees49,281

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength37

IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.26

Shares Outstanding3,181,925,300

10 Day Avg. Volume7,387,600

30 Day Avg. Volume4,238,393

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)0.00

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.72

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.02

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.03

Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.06

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$16.00

Price Target Upside11.42% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering1

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTakeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products in Japan, the United States, Europe, Canada, Latin America, Russia, rest of Asia, and internationally. It offers pharmaceutical products in the areas of gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma derived therapies, oncology, and neuroscience. The company provides its products under the Entyvio, Gattex/Revestive, Takecab, Alofisel, Dexilant, Natpara, Adynovate/Adynovi, Takhzyro, Livtencity, Elaprase, Replagal, Advate, Vpriv, Gammagard Liquid/Kiovig, Hyqvia, Cuvitru, Exkivity, Velcade, Leuplin/Enantone, Adcetris, Vyvansese, Trintellix, and Alunbrig brands. Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited has out-licensing agreement with Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.; collaborations and in-licensing agreements with the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc., and Ovid Therapeutics Inc.; and collaboration with Evox Therapeutics Ltd., as well as a licensing agreement with ProThera Biologics Inc. It also has research collaboration and licensing agreement with Crescendo Biologics, Code Bio, Immusoft, Poseida Therapeutics, Selecta Biosciences, BridGene Biosciences, Skyhawk Therapeutics, and StrideBio; and strategic alliances with Egle Therapeutics SAS; Evotec SE; Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.; Carmine Therapeutics; KSQ Therapeutics; and Anima Biotech. Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited was founded in 1781 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes MoneyTakeda Pharmaceutical Company generates revenue primarily through the sale of its pharmaceutical products and therapies across its core therapeutic areas. The company invests heavily in research and development to discover and bring to market novel treatments that address unmet medical needs. Key revenue streams include prescription drug sales, with significant contributions from its oncology and rare diseases portfolios. Additionally, Takeda engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations to enhance its research capabilities and expand its market reach, further contributing to its earnings. Revenue is also bolstered by its global presence, allowing Takeda to tap into diverse markets and healthcare systems.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Geography

Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.

Chart InsightsTakeda's revenue growth in the U.S. and Europe/Canada has been robust, driven by their Growth and Launch Product portfolio, which now makes up 48% of core revenue. Despite challenges like VYVANSE's generic impact and ENTYVIO's underperformance in the U.S., Takeda's strategic focus on biopharmaceutical innovations and operational efficiencies has bolstered their financial position. The company plans significant investments in the U.S. market, aiming to sustain momentum and offset revenue pressures from generic competition and market challenges in China.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2025

(Q4-2024)

% Change Since: 0.35%|

Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

Takeda's earnings call highlighted strong growth in its Growth and Launch Product portfolio and progress in its R&D pipeline, supported by operational efficiencies and cash flow strength. However, the significant impact from VYVANSE generics, ENTYVIO's underperformance, and challenges in China present notable concerns.

Q4-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Growth and Launch Product Portfolio Success

Takeda's Growth and Launch Product portfolio grew by 14.7%, now accounting for 48% of total core revenue. Products like TAKHZYRO, FRUZAQLA, and ADZYNMA exceeded revenue expectations.

R&D Pipeline Progress

Significant progress in the late-stage pipeline with 6 Phase III programs underway. Notable achievements include positive Phase III data for rusfertide in polycythemia vera and completion of Phase III enrollment for zasocitinib in psoriasis and oveporexton in narcolepsy type 1.

Operational Efficiency and Profit Margin Growth

Core operating profit margin reached 25.4%, more than 2 percentage points above original expectations, driven by significant OpEx savings from efficiency programs.

Strong Free Cash Flow

Free cash flow was JPY 769 billion, exceeding forecasts due to lower CapEx and cash taxes, comfortably covering dividends and interest payments.

Dividend Increase

Takeda announced a further dividend increase to JPY 200 per share, in line with its progressive dividend policy.

Negative Updates

VYVANSE Generic Impact

Significant impact from VYVANSE loss of exclusivity, affecting revenue and core EPS, with erosion expected to continue into fiscal year 2025.

ENTYVIO Revenue Performance

ENTYVIO revenue was below expectations due to U.S. access challenges with the new pen formulation, impacting growth despite positive prescriber and patient feedback.

China Market Challenges

Albumin growth was impacted by lower demand in China and planned upgrade to manufacturing operations, with China representing only 4% of overall company revenue.

Higher Tax Expenses

Core EPS fell slightly short of guidance due to higher-than-anticipated tax expenses, including increased U.S. international tax provisions.

Company Guidance

During the FY 2024 earnings call, Takeda shared comprehensive guidance, highlighting several key metrics and strategic developments. The company's fiscal year 2024 core revenue grew by 2.8% at constant exchange rates, driven by a 14.7% increase in their Growth and Launch Product portfolio, which now constitutes 48% of total core revenue. Despite a significant generic impact from VYVANSE's loss of exclusivity, Takeda's core operating profit reached JPY 1.2 billion, reflecting a 4.9% growth at constant exchange rates. The core operating profit margin was recorded at 25.4%, surpassing original expectations by over 2 percentage points. Takeda also reported an adjusted free cash flow of JPY 769 billion, with a leverage ratio improvement to 2.8x. Looking forward to fiscal year 2025, Takeda anticipates broadly flat revenue, core operating profit, and core EPS at constant exchange rates, as continued Growth and Launch Product momentum is expected to offset VYVANSE's decline. The company plans to invest USD 30 billion over the next five years, particularly in the U.S., to support biopharmaceutical innovations. Additionally, Takeda announced a dividend increase to JPY 200 per share, reflecting their progressive dividend policy.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue and profit growth, a solid balance sheet, and effective cash flow management. While profitability is a key strength, potential improvements in operational efficiency and careful monitoring of leverage and capital expenditures could further enhance financial performance.

Income Statement

Positive

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company shows strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth and robust profitability margins. The Gross Profit Margin is healthy, reflecting effective cost management. The Net Profit Margin has improved significantly over the last year, showcasing enhanced operational efficiency. However, the EBIT margin saw a dip in recent periods, which could be an area for improvement.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a moderate Debt-to-Equity Ratio, suggesting a balanced approach to leveraging. The Return on Equity is solid, indicating efficient use of equity, though there is room for improvement. The Equity Ratio indicates a healthy proportion of equity in the asset base, supporting financial stability.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flows are robust, with strong operating cash flow supporting the company's financial flexibility. The Free Cash Flow has seen significant growth, highlighting effective capital management. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is favorable, indicating good cash conversion, though fluctuations in capital expenditures may warrant monitoring.

Breakdown	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021	Mar 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.26T	4.03T	3.57T	3.20T	3.29T
Gross Profit	2.83T	2.78T	2.46T	2.20T	2.20T
EBITDA	874.60B	1.18T	1.18T	983.72B	880.33B
Net Income	144.07B	317.02B	230.06B	376.00B	44.24B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.11T	13.96T	13.18T	12.91T	12.82T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	457.80B	553.70B	875.00B	1.00T	653.44B
Total Debt	4.84T	4.38T	4.35T	4.64T	5.09T
Total Liabilities	7.83T	7.60T	7.49T	7.74T	8.09T
Stockholders Equity	7.27T	6.35T	5.68T	5.17T	4.72T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	235.61B	343.47B	937.07B	774.46B	452.04B
Operating Cash Flow	716.34B	977.16B	1.12T	1.01T	669.75B
Investing Cash Flow	-463.86B	-607.10B	-198.13B	393.53B	292.12B
Financing Cash Flow	-354.42B	-709.15B	-1.07T	-1.09T	-1.01T

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price14.36

Price Trends

50DMA

14.80

Negative

100DMA

14.74

Negative

200DMA

14.06

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.19

Negative

RSI

47.01

Neutral

STOCH

72.73

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TAK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 14.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.42, below the 50-day MA of 14.80, and above the 200-day MA of 14.06, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TAK.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Risk Analysis

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Takeda Pharmaceutical Company reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (51)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TAK	71 Outperform	$45.28B	46.65	1.99%	4.19%	1.92%	6.40%
RDY	67 Neutral	$11.54B	17.09	18.36%	0.67%	13.03%	-0.49%
HLN	65 Neutral	$41.96B	21.36	9.20%	1.78%	0.58%	45.74%
ITCI	63 Neutral	$14.05B	―	-8.58%	―	46.62%	50.50%
VTRS	57 Neutral	$10.54B	―	-19.77%	5.49%	-6.88%	-6809.78%
TEVA	55 Neutral	$18.31B	―	-2.31%	―	2.43%	64.37%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.39B	0.36	-62.86%	2.37%	15.48%	-2.68%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TAK

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company

14.36

1.03

7.73%

RDY

Dr Reddy's Laboratories

13.60

-3.09

-18.51%

VTRS

Viatris

9.39

-2.16

-18.70%

TEVA

Teva Pharmaceutical

16.29

-0.87

-5.07%

ITCI

Intra-Cellular Therapies

131.87

57.45

77.20%

HLN

Haleon PLC Sponsored ADR

9.46

0.00

0.00%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 19, 2025