Takeda Pharmaceutical Company (TAK)
NYSE:TAK
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Takeda Pharmaceutical Company
(NYSE:TAK)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$17.50
▲(24.29% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/21/26
Overall score reflects solid financial stability and cash generation plus encouraging pipeline progress, offset by near-term guided profit/EPS pressure and mixed technical momentum. Valuation is supported by the dividend, but negative P/E reduces valuation clarity.
Positive Factors
Robust Late‑Stage Pipeline
Multiple positive Phase III readouts and priority reviews materially deepen Takeda’s late‑stage pipeline, creating a multi‑year cadence of potential NMEs and indication expansions. This structural R&D success reduces reliance on legacy products and supports sustainable mid‑term revenue growth if launches commercialize as planned.
Negative Factors
Loss of Exclusivity (VYVANSE) Impact
A significant LOE revenue hit demonstrates structural vulnerability when a core product loses exclusivity. Even if FY2026 headwind is smaller, such expiries can create multi‑year revenue volatility and force heavier near‑term investment to replace lost sales, pressuring margins and cash conversion until new launches scale.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Robust Late‑Stage Pipeline
Multiple positive Phase III readouts and priority reviews materially deepen Takeda’s late‑stage pipeline, creating a multi‑year cadence of potential NMEs and indication expansions. This structural R&D success reduces reliance on legacy products and supports sustainable mid‑term revenue growth if launches commercialize as planned.
Read all positive factors
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes income from different business units, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating areas of strategic focus or potential vulnerability.
Analyzes income from different business units, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating areas of strategic focus or potential vulnerability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTakeda Pharmaceutical Company (TAK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$50.93B
Dividend Yield3.86%
Average Volume (3M)3.05M
Price to Earnings (P/E)41.7
Beta (1Y)0.05
Revenue Growth-0.47%
EPS Growth83.79%
CountryUS
Employees49,281
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)61.44
Shares Outstanding3,182,525,000
10 Day Avg. Volume3,230,951
30 Day Avg. Volume3,045,898
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.52
Price to Book (P/B)1.19
Price to Sales (P/S)1.94
P/FCF Ratio11.45
Enterprise Value/Market Cap242.94
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.72
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.65
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.67
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$21.00Price Target Upside49.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.46
Revenue Forecast (FY)$29.23B
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products in Japan, the United States, Europe, Canada, Latin America, Russia, rest of Asia, and internationally....
How the Company Makes Money
Takeda makes money primarily by selling prescription medicines and biologic therapies. Revenue is generated through (1) product sales to wholesalers, distributors, hospitals, pharmacies, and government/healthcare systems, with pricing and volume s...
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced strong R&D momentum, significant clinical successes and robust cash generation against near-term revenue pressures from VYVANSE loss of exclusivity, pricing and supply dynamics in plasma-derived therapies, and substantial transformation and launch investments that will weigh on FY2026 profit and EPS. Management presented a clear two‑horizon strategy: near-term transformation and investment to enable a wave of launches (Horizon One) followed by accelerated growth as the new products scale (Horizon Two). The pipeline success (3 positive Phase IIIs, priority reviews, TAK-881 data), disciplined cost savings (~JPY 300 billion captured to date) and solid free cash flow provide a foundation to absorb short-term headwinds and fund launches, while execution risks (resizing, restructuring costs, biosimilar/patent challenges and market dynamics in plasma products) are material but appear managed. Overall, positives from the pipeline and balance sheet outweigh the near-term financial and operational challenges, supporting a constructive outlook conditional on successful commercialization execution.Positive Updates
Robust Late‑Stage Pipeline and Clinical Success
Delivered 3-for-3 positive Phase III readouts (oveporexton, rusfertide, zasocitinib) in FY2025; TAK-881 showed positive pivotal results (20% facilitated SCIG, comparable efficacy to HYQVIA at half the Ig volume). Oveporexton and rusfertide granted FDA priority review with potential U.S. launches in H2 2026; zasocitinib planned for commercialization in H1 2027. Management expects this late-stage depth to be the most robust in Takeda's history and to support an average of 2–3 NME filings or major U.S. indication expansions per year through 2030.
Negative Updates
VYVANSE Loss of Exclusivity (LOE) Headwind
LOE for VYVANSE cost the company approximately JPY 150 billion of revenue in FY2025 and was a primary driver of the core revenue decline of 2.6% at CER. Management expects the FY2026 LOE headwind to be much smaller, but FY2025 impact was significant to top line.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Robust Late‑Stage Pipeline and Clinical Success
Delivered 3-for-3 positive Phase III readouts (oveporexton, rusfertide, zasocitinib) in FY2025; TAK-881 showed positive pivotal results (20% facilitated SCIG, comparable efficacy to HYQVIA at half the Ig volume). Oveporexton and rusfertide granted FDA priority review with potential U.S. launches in H2 2026; zasocitinib planned for commercialization in H1 2027. Management expects this late-stage depth to be the most robust in Takeda's history and to support an average of 2–3 NME filings or major U.S. indication expansions per year through 2030.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Takeda closed FY25 with core revenue of ~JPY 4.5 trillion (‑2.6% at CER), core operating profit of JPY 1.17 trillion (‑0.9% at CER), reported operating profit of JPY 408.8 billion (+19.3%), core EPS JPY 517 (+3.1% CER) and reported EPS JPY 122; operating cash flow was >JPY 1 trillion and adjusted free cash flow JPY 684.5 billion (after a $1.2 billion Innovent upfront), with approximately JPY 150 billion of VYVANSE LOE headwind this year. For FY26 management guides revenue to decline low single‑digits at CER (but to JPY 4.64 trillion on FX assumptions of JPY156/USD and JPY182/EUR, +3% actual), core operating profit to fall 5–8% at CER to ~JPY 1.16 trillion (‑1.1% on an actual FX basis), reported operating profit to rise ~2.7% to JPY 420 billion, core EPS to decline in the mid‑teens, and adjusted free cash flow to remain JPY 650–750 billion; the dividend will increase to JPY 204/share. The company expects to repay ~JPY 500 billion of debt maturing in FY26 using cash/free cash flow, has 100% fixed‑rate debt at a weighted average ~2.4%, and is targeting deleveraging toward ~2x adjusted net debt/adjusted EBITDA. Takeda highlighted efficiency gains of ~JPY 300 billion gross annualized savings to date, >JPY 150 billion of OpEx savings in FY25, and a new transformation impacting ~4,500 roles with JPY 170 billion restructuring cost in FY26 to deliver ~JPY 100 billion of savings in FY26 and >JPY 200 billion annualized by FY28, all to fund launches (oveporexton, rusfertide, zasocitinib) and pipeline investment; growth & launch products now represent >50% of revenue and grew ~4.5% CER (e.g., ENTYVIO +4.2% CER, FRUZAQLA +14.6% CER, QDENGA +10.7% CER, IG +4.1%, albumin ‑2.1% CER).Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.78T | 4.58T | 4.26T | 4.03T | 3.57T |
| Gross Profit | 2.44T | 3.00T | 2.83T | 2.78T | 2.46T |
| EBITDA | 1.34T | 1.21T | 1.14T | 1.28T | 1.18T |
| Net Income | 203.33B | 107.93B | 144.07B | 317.02B | 230.06B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 15.52T | 14.25T | 15.11T | 13.96T | 13.18T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 597.63B | 405.59B | 472.89B | 553.70B | 875.00B |
| Total Debt | 4.90T | 4.52T | 4.84T | 4.38T | 4.35T |
| Total Liabilities | 7.71T | 7.31T | 7.83T | 7.60T | 7.49T |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.81T | 6.94T | 7.27T | 6.35T | 5.68T |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 808.70B | 856.39B | 235.61B | 343.47B | 937.07B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 995.32B | 1.06T | 716.34B | 977.16B | 1.12T |
| Investing Cash Flow | -411.19B | -367.06B | -463.86B | -607.10B | -198.13B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -398.08B | -751.42B | -354.42B | -709.15B | -1.07T |
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Technical Analysis
Negative
14.08
Price Trends
17.21
Negative
17.37
Negative
15.98
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.28
Positive
33.85
Neutral
27.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TAK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.45, below the 50-day MA of 17.21, and below the 200-day MA of 15.98, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TAK.
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Risk Analysis
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Takeda Pharmaceutical Company reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
86 Outperform | $15.92B | 23.79 | 21.64% | ― | 28.59% | 120.51% | |
67 Neutral | $11.44B | 25.36 | 11.76% | 0.64% | -1.06% | -26.67% | |
66 Neutral | $40.11B | 29.40 | 6.43% | 1.74% | 1.30% | 21.31% | |
62 Neutral | $50.93B | 41.70 | 2.61% | 3.86% | -0.47% | 83.79% | |
61 Neutral | $18.94B | -63.36 | -1.97% | 3.99% | 2.14% | 91.93% | |
61 Neutral | $40.72B | 25.59 | 20.79% | ― | 5.76% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.