Takeda Pharmaceutical Company (TAK)
NYSE:TAK
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Takeda Pharmaceutical Company
(NYSE:TAK)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$18.00
▲(27.84% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/02/26
The score is anchored by solid cash generation and a stable balance-sheet profile, but is held back by materially weakened profitability/returns. Technicals are supportive but look overextended, while valuation is a key drag due to a very high P/E; the earnings call adds modest support from strong pipeline progress and improved FCF outlook despite near-term revenue headwinds.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Takeda's sizable adjusted free cash flow and upgraded FCF outlook indicate durable internal funding for R&D, launches and debt service. Reliable FCF reduces reliance on external financing, enabling sustained investment in pipeline commercialization and balance-sheet flexibility over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Material profitability deterioration
Return metrics and net margins have eroded meaningfully, indicating weaker earnings power relative to the capital base. Persistently low ROE and compressed net margins reduce capital efficiency, constrain reinvestment capacity and raise the bar for sustaining shareholder returns absent recovery in core profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Takeda's sizable adjusted free cash flow and upgraded FCF outlook indicate durable internal funding for R&D, launches and debt service. Reliable FCF reduces reliance on external financing, enabling sustained investment in pipeline commercialization and balance-sheet flexibility over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company (TAK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$57.51B
Dividend Yield3.86%
Average Volume (3M)2.58M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.3
Beta (1Y)0.09
Revenue Growth-1.98%
EPS Growth-86.20%
CountryUS
Employees49,281
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.21
Shares Outstanding3,182,409,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,719,830
30 Day Avg. Volume2,576,819
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.57
Price to Book (P/B)1.03
Price to Sales (P/S)1.56
P/FCF Ratio8.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap231.51
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.97
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.78
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.56
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.00Price Target Upside27.84% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)$29.24B
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products in Japan, the United States, Europe, Canada, Latin America, Russia, rest of Asia, and internationally....
How the Company Makes Money
Takeda generates revenue primarily through the sale of prescription pharmaceuticals, which are developed and marketed for various therapeutic areas, including oncology, gastrointestinal disorders, and rare diseases. The company has a robust pipeli...
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes income from different business units, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating areas of strategic focus or potential vulnerability.
Analyzes income from different business units, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating areas of strategic focus or potential vulnerability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTakeda Pharmaceutical Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted significant strategic and operational positives: three high-impact Phase III successes with NDAs submitted or filings underway, strong cash generation (adjusted free cash flow JPY 625.9bn), growth across several launch products (growth & launch products +6.7% CER; ENTYVIO +7.4% CER; QDENGA +22.1%) and maintained core OP/core EPS guidance through disciplined cost management. Offsetting these positives are meaningful near-term top-line pressures from VYVANSE LOE (9M revenue −3.3%), slowing growth in some legacy products (TAKHZYRO +2.4% CER), policy and reimbursement headwinds (Medicare Part D effects, ENTYVIO selected for IRA), China albumin softness and increased near-term investment needs for launches. Overall, the strategic R&D wins and strong cash flow provide a favorable outlook, but material near-term revenue and pricing risks remain.Positive Updates
Late-stage R&D Success — Three Positive Phase III Readouts
Takeda reported positive Phase III results for oveporexton, rusfertide and zasocitinib in 2025, each meeting or exceeding expectations. Oveporexton: ~85% of patients reached normative Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) with statistically significant improvements across 14 primary/secondary endpoints; NDA submitted. Rusfertide: durable hematocrit control <45% through 52 weeks with improved patient-reported outcomes; NDA submitted. Zasocitinib: rapid efficacy (PASI75 within 4 weeks), >50% PASI90 at week 16 and ~30% PASI100; regulatory filing preparations underway with expected launch in H1 CY2027.
Negative Updates
Top-line Decline Year-to-Date
Revenue for the 9-month period was just over JPY 3.4 trillion, down 3.3% year-on-year (−2.8% at CER), driven primarily by the impact of VYVANSE loss of exclusivity (LOE).
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Late-stage R&D Success — Three Positive Phase III Readouts
Takeda reported positive Phase III results for oveporexton, rusfertide and zasocitinib in 2025, each meeting or exceeding expectations. Oveporexton: ~85% of patients reached normative Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) with statistically significant improvements across 14 primary/secondary endpoints; NDA submitted. Rusfertide: durable hematocrit control <45% through 52 weeks with improved patient-reported outcomes; NDA submitted. Zasocitinib: rapid efficacy (PASI75 within 4 weeks), >50% PASI90 at week 16 and ~30% PASI100; regulatory filing preparations underway with expected launch in H1 CY2027.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Takeda revised FY25 guidance to a low single‑digit revenue decline at constant exchange rates with a revised full‑year revenue forecast of JPY 4.53 trillion, while maintaining core operating profit guidance of JPY 1.15 trillion and core EPS guidance of JPY 486; management also upgraded its adjusted free cash flow outlook after reporting YTD adjusted FCF of JPY 625.9 billion. For the nine months, revenue was just over JPY 3.4 trillion (‑3.3% reported, ‑2.8% CER), core OP was JPY 971.6 billion (‑3.4% YoY), reported OP JPY 422.4 billion (+1.2%), core EPS YTD JPY 428 and reported EPS YTD JPY 137. Growth & launch products (now >50% of sales) grew 6.7% CER (ENTYVIO +7.4% CER; TAKHZYRO +2.4% CER; IG +4.3% YTD with subcutaneous IG double‑digit; albumin +1.3%; QDENGA +22.1%), and management said FX upside added about JPY 30 billion to revenue and JPY 20 billion to core OP — enabling Takeda to hold FY core OP/EPS guidance despite stronger‑than‑anticipated VYVANSE generic erosion while maintaining OpEx discipline and investing for multiple upcoming launches.Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.49T | 4.58T | 4.26T | 4.03T | 3.57T | 3.20T |
| Gross Profit | 2.79T | 3.00T | 2.83T | 2.78T | 2.46T | 2.20T |
| EBITDA | 1.39T | 1.21T | 1.14T | 1.28T | 1.18T | 983.72B |
| Net Income | 114.75B | 107.93B | 144.07B | 317.02B | 230.06B | 376.00B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.42T | 14.25T | 15.11T | 13.96T | 13.18T | 12.91T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 761.94B | 405.59B | 472.89B | 553.70B | 875.00B | 1.00T |
| Total Debt | 4.86T | 4.52T | 4.84T | 4.38T | 4.35T | 4.64T |
| Total Liabilities | 7.77T | 7.31T | 7.83T | 7.60T | 7.49T | 7.74T |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.65T | 6.94T | 7.27T | 6.35T | 5.68T | 5.17T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 956.59B | 856.39B | 235.61B | 343.47B | 937.07B | 774.46B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.18T | 1.06T | 716.34B | 977.16B | 1.12T | 1.01T |
| Investing Cash Flow | -348.98B | -367.06B | -463.86B | -607.10B | -198.13B | 393.53B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -698.18B | -751.42B | -354.42B | -709.15B | -1.07T | -1.09T |
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Technical Analysis
Positive
14.08
Price Trends
17.76
Positive
16.21
Positive
15.46
Positive
Market Momentum
0.06
Positive
51.12
Neutral
49.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TAK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.10, below the 50-day MA of 17.76, and below the 200-day MA of 15.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TAK.
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Risk Analysis
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Takeda Pharmaceutical Company reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $13.29B | 29.49 | 16.67% | ― | 19.61% | 11.36% | |
70 Outperform | $11.53B | 21.72 | 16.00% | 0.64% | 10.63% | 6.35% | |
66 Neutral | $43.49B | 20.62 | 9.44% | 1.74% | 0.58% | 45.74% | |
61 Neutral | $57.51B | 18.30 | 1.58% | 3.86% | -1.98% | -86.20% | |
61 Neutral | $34.39B | 25.43 | 20.09% | ― | -0.25% | ― | |
56 Neutral | $15.39B | -4.15 | -22.99% | 3.99% | -6.40% | -320.23% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Corporate Events
Takeda Advances Late-Stage Pipeline with Positive Phase 3 Data
Nov 28, 2025
In November 2025, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company announced significant advancements in its late-stage pipeline, including positive Phase 3 data for rusfertide and oveporexton, targeting polycythemia vera and narcolepsy type 1, respectively. These d...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.