Swedbank AB (SWDBY)
OTHER OTC:SWDBY
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Swedbank AB
(OTC:SWDBY)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$35.00
â–¼(-1.96% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/31/26
The score is driven primarily by financial quality concerns from highly volatile operating/free cash flow despite strong profitability, with a constructive (but overbought) technical uptrend and supportive valuation (reasonable P/E and high dividend yield). Earnings call factors are balanced: strong ROE/capital and dividend strength are offset by NII pressure from rate cuts, rising costs, Entercard credit effects, and ongoing regulatory uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Sustainable Profitability (ROE)
Achieving a 15.2% ROE signals durable core profitability and efficient capital deployment versus peers. Sustained ROE supports shareholder distributions, internal capital generation and strategic investments, underpinning long-term franchise value amid cyclical headwinds.
Negative Factors
Volatile Cash Generation
Repeated large swings in operating and free cash flow reduce the reliability of internally generated funding for dividends, restructuring or acquisitions. Persistent volatility complicates liquidity planning, increases reliance on markets, and raises execution risk during downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustainable Profitability (ROE)
Achieving a 15.2% ROE signals durable core profitability and efficient capital deployment versus peers. Sustained ROE supports shareholder distributions, internal capital generation and strategic investments, underpinning long-term franchise value amid cyclical headwinds.
Read all positive factors
Swedbank AB (SWDBY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$38.31B
Dividend Yield6.22%
Average Volume (3M)1.10K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.0
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth-11.76%
EPS Growth-0.87%
CountryUS
Employees16,933
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.81
Shares Outstanding1,132,005,700
10 Day Avg. Volume1,245
30 Day Avg. Volume1,096
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.84
Price to Book (P/B)1.59
Price to Sales (P/S)3.00
P/FCF Ratio-7.67
Enterprise Value/Market Cap26.37
Enterprise Value/Revenue9.62
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit19.42
Enterprise Value/Ebitda33.06
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)2.95
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.71B
Swedbank AB Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Swedbank AB (publ) provides various banking products and services to individuals and companies. The company operates through Swedish Banking, Baltic Banking, and Large Corporates & Institutions segments. It offers savings accounts, mutual funds an...
How the Company Makes Money
Swedbank makes money primarily through (1) net interest income, (2) net fee and commission income, and (3) other income streams typical for universal banks.
1) Net interest income (largest driver in most banking models): Swedbank earns interest o...
Swedbank AB Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a broadly constructive operational and financial picture: management met its ROE target, delivered strong lending and asset‑gathering momentum, improved customer availability dramatically, maintained a solid CET1 ratio (17.8%) and proposed a substantial dividend. Offsetting positives are clear near‑term headwinds — lower policy rates pressuring net interest income, continued margin competition in mortgages, a higher underlying cost base (including acquisition run‑rate and one‑offs), Entercard‑related credit effects and an ongoing New York DFS investigation. Overall the positives and negatives are balanced, with the bank well‑positioned but facing identifiable near‑term execution and regulatory challenges.Positive Updates
Return on Equity Achievement
Full-year return on equity of 15.2% (target 15%) and Q4 ROE of 14.7%, meeting the bank's sustainable ROE ambition for 2025.
Negative Updates
Net Interest Income Pressure from Rate Cuts
Net interest income was unchanged q/q with continued headwinds from lower policy rates; management expects the full negative NII effect from rate cuts to materialize in Q1 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Return on Equity Achievement
Full-year return on equity of 15.2% (target 15%) and Q4 ROE of 14.7%, meeting the bank's sustainable ROE ambition for 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: Swedbank expects 2026 costs to grow ~3% to around SEK 27.5bn (new starting point SEK 26.7bn after adding acquisition run-rates of SEK 1.6bn to underlying 2025 expenses of SEK 25.1bn; reported 2025 expenses SEK 24.5bn; delivered 2025 cost guidance SEK 25.3bn; 2025 included VAT recoveries SEK 1.5bn, temporary investments SEK 800m and Q4 Entercard/Stabelo costs SEK 180m). Capital and dividend: CET1 17.8% (acquisitions reduced CET1 ~50bps), Board proposes total dividend SEK 29.80/share (ordinary SEK 20.45 + special SEK 9.35) leaving a buffer of ~300bps above requirements; target buffer range 100–300bps with a 200bps midpoint over time. Profitability and efficiency: Q4 ROE 14.7%, FY ROE 15.2%, cost-to-income 0.36 (Q4 and FY). Volumes and NII: 2025 lending +SEK 108bn excl. FX (SEK 47bn to corporates; Entercard+Stabelo SEK 44bn; organic private +SEK 17bn), lending volumes +3% q/q, mortgages +SEK 23bn in the quarter (SEK 17bn from Stabelo), own-channel mortgage front book +SEK 4.1bn, Swedish front-book market share (own channels) 11% vs back-book 18% and total market share 22%; corporate market share Sweden 15.2% (+0.5pp). NII was unchanged q/q with higher volumes adding SEK 72m and the full quarterly NII effect of recent policy rate cuts expected in Q1 2026. Asset quality: Q4 impairments SEK 355m (macro release SEK 186m; rating/stage migrations SEK 433m), Entercard-related impairments increased by SEK 415m (including SEK 354m day‑1), with an estimated ongoing Entercard impact of +1–2bps to the credit impairment ratio. Other notable metrics: net gains/losses SEK 982m, Robur net inflows SEK 11bn.Swedbank AB Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 119.82B | 144.06B | 131.14B | 64.54B | 49.66B |
| Gross Profit | 67.90B | 73.33B | 72.25B | 51.29B | 46.70B |
| EBITDA | 43.48B | 47.15B | 45.63B | 29.58B | 27.50B |
| Net Income | 32.76B | 34.87B | 34.13B | 21.36B | 20.87B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.06T | 3.01T | 2.86T | 2.85T | 2.75T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 263.63B | 325.60B | 252.99B | 365.99B | 360.15B |
| Total Debt | 909.93B | 916.01B | 873.63B | 881.46B | 808.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.84T | 2.79T | 2.66T | 2.68T | 2.59T |
| Stockholders Equity | 225.80B | 218.87B | 198.76B | 176.05B | 161.67B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -46.83B | 80.41B | -146.00B | -18.98B | 49.16B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -46.34B | 80.82B | -145.15B | -18.62B | 49.41B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.67B | -147.00M | -418.00M | 691.00M | 628.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.43B | -12.64B | 32.17B | 10.02B | 14.15B |
Swedbank AB Technical Analysis
Positive
35.70
Price Trends
34.91
Negative
32.85
Positive
29.60
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.59
Negative
49.59
Neutral
20.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SWDBY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.19, above the 50-day MA of 34.91, and above the 200-day MA of 29.60, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.59 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SWDBY.
Swedbank AB Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $22.74B | 11.00 | 11.45% | 3.74% | 4.00% | 28.54% | |
69 Neutral | $32.23B | 11.61 | 10.06% | 3.50% | 5.73% | 38.39% | |
69 Neutral | $31.14B | 11.54 | 9.88% | 2.76% | -0.81% | 20.34% | |
68 Neutral | $41.90B | 12.33 | 11.96% | 3.14% | 0.15% | 11.62% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $38.31B | 10.97 | 15.37% | 6.22% | -11.76% | -0.87% | |
61 Neutral | $22.37B | 12.03 | 9.94% | 0.37% | -3.18% | -3.10% |
* Financial Sector Average
SWDBY
Swedbank AB
34.56
13.22
61.94%
FITB
Fifth Third Bancorp
46.82
8.57
22.41%
FCNCA
First Citizens BancShares
1,894.38
42.58
2.30%
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares
15.88
1.23
8.43%
MTB
M&T Bank
208.98
34.54
19.80%
RF
Regions Financial
26.34
5.22
24.69%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.