Stoneco (STNE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.76B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 5.68M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.34
• Revenue Growth: -25.51%
• EPS Growth: -139.31%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,239
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 0.55
• Shares Outstanding: 254,617,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,539,954
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,680,135
• PEG Ratio: -0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.83
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.52
• P/FCF Ratio: -760.37
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 8.47
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.94
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.30
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.25
• 1Y Price Target: $19.17
• Price Target Upside: 38.01% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 10.5
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $15.25B

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $14.50 ▲(4.39% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/05/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/05/26

The score is held back primarily by weak/volatile financial performance (sharp revenue contraction, negative operating profitability, weak free-cash-flow conversion, and higher leverage) and bearish technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partly offset by a low P/E valuation and a generally positive earnings-call outlook driven by guidance, banking/credit momentum, and significant planned capital returns, albeit with notable execution and credit-risk headwinds.

Positive Factors

Deposit Growth / Funding

Material deposit growth provides a durable, low-cost funding base that supports expansion of the credit franchise and reduces reliance on wholesale funding. Higher deposit penetration tied to MSMB TPV strengthens liquidity, underwriting capacity and net interest margin sustainability as credit scales.

Customer Scale & Engagement

A larger, more engaged merchant base increases recurring payments volume and creates cross-sell levers for banking, credit and software services. Higher share of 'heavy users' improves lifetime value and structural revenue opportunities, supporting steadier gross profit and product bundling over months.

Simplification & Capital Returns

Divesting non-core software and returning proceeds via buybacks signals disciplined capital allocation and strategic focus on core fintech. That simplifies operations, frees capital for core growth or shareholder returns, and can sustainably boost EPS per share and managerial focus over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Revenue & Margin Volatility

Steep revenue decline and volatile, negative operating margins indicate underlying business-model instability or one-off accounting shifts that impair consistent profitability. Such swings reduce predictability of cash generation and make multi‑period planning, reinvestment and credit underwriting more difficult.

Rising Leverage

A material increase in leverage raises financial risk and constrains flexibility to absorb shocks or pursue growth. Higher debt amplifies earnings volatility via interest costs, limits ability to extend credit or invest in tech, and increases refinancing and covenant sensitivity in stressed macro conditions.

Elevated Credit Risk & Provisions

Rising provisions and worsening delinquencies signal structural credit-quality pressure as the credit book scales. High upfront provisioning versus back-ended revenue recognition compresses near-term profitability and increases the risk that credit losses outpace revenue from lending if underwriting or macro trends deteriorate.

Stoneco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

StoneCo Ltd. provides financial technology solutions to merchants and integrated partners to conduct electronic commerce across in-store, online, and mobile channels in Brazil. It distributes its solutions, principally through proprietary Stone Hubs, which offer hyper-local sales and services; and technology and solutions to digital merchants through sales and technical personnel and software vendors, as well as sells solutions to brick-and-mortar and digital merchants through sales team. As of December 31, 2021, the company served approximately 1,766,100 clients primarily small-and-medium-sized businesses; and marketplaces, e-commerce platforms, and integrated software vendors. StoneCo Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in George Town, the Cayman Islands. StoneCo Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of HR Holdings, LLC.

How the Company Makes Money

Stoneco generates revenue primarily through transaction fees charged to merchants for processing payments. The company earns a percentage of each transaction processed, which varies based on the payment method and volume. Additionally, Stoneco offers value-added services such as lending, which provides credit solutions to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), further diversifying its revenue streams. The company has established partnerships with various financial institutions and technology providers to enhance its service offerings and expand its customer base. These collaborations allow Stoneco to integrate additional financial products, contributing to its overall earnings.

Stoneco Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Weak and volatile fundamentals: 2025 revenue fell sharply (-75.48% YoY) with deeply negative gross/EBIT/EBITDA margins, rising leverage (debt-to-equity 1.59), and poor cash conversion (FCF still slightly negative and down ~98% YoY) despite reported net income/ROE improvement.

Income Statement

Results are highly volatile. Revenue fell sharply in 2025 (down 75.48% YoY), and profitability quality deteriorated with deeply negative gross margin (-3.7%), EBIT margin (-90.2%), and EBITDA margin (-63.3%). While 2025 shows a strong net profit margin (68.6%) and positive net income, the prior year (2024) swung to a net loss, and earlier years show alternating profitability, reducing confidence in earnings durability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is mixed. Equity remains sizable ($11.0B in 2025 vs. $11.8B in 2024), but leverage has increased meaningfully, with debt-to-equity rising to 1.59 in 2025 (from 1.10 in 2024 and 0.38 in 2023). Return on equity rebounded to 20.6% in 2025 after a negative 2024, indicating improved reported profitability, but the higher debt load increases financial risk if earnings weaken.

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened. Operating cash flow turned positive in 2025 ($0.66B) after a large outflow in 2024 (-$3.62B), but free cash flow was still slightly negative (-$28.4M) and collapsed versus the prior year (down ~98%). Cash conversion is also a concern: free cash flow was negative relative to net income in 2025, suggesting earnings are not translating cleanly into cash.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.32B	12.74B	11.36B	9.02B	4.58B
Gross Profit	-122.76M	9.35B	8.38B	6.35B	2.86B
EBITDA	-2.10B	6.41B	5.87B	4.21B	1.36B
Net Income	2.27B	-1.52B	1.59B	-519.42M	-1.36B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	62.27B	54.81B	48.69B	42.25B	42.10B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.94B	14.55B	12.06B	8.93B	8.84B
Total Debt	17.57B	12.90B	5.52B	5.55B	8.36B
Total Liabilities	50.44B	42.99B	34.02B	29.30B	28.47B
Stockholders Equity	11.78B	11.78B	14.62B	12.89B	13.54B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-28.43M	-4.89B	437.41M	960.44M	2.31B
Operating Cash Flow	663.28M	-3.62B	1.65B	1.68B	3.61B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.73B	1.59B	-845.44M	-1.87B	-2.98B
Financing Cash Flow	912.45M	5.04B	-148.80M	-2.81B	1.42B

Stoneco Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 13.89
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STNE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.17, below the 50-day MA of 15.66, and below the 200-day MA of 15.95, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.68 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for STNE.

Stoneco Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PATH	73 Outperform	$6.66B	24.00	15.32%	―	10.05%	―
DLO	73 Outperform	$3.37B	21.00	34.42%	―	22.02%	12.42%
PAYO	71 Outperform	$1.60B	26.33	9.84%	―	10.58%	-45.52%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
PAGS	60 Neutral	$2.80B	7.50	14.40%	1.40%	0.58%	5.76%
FOUR	58 Neutral	$4.49B	42.45	7.54%	―	23.16%	27.38%
STNE	50 Neutral	$3.76B	9.51	19.67%	―	-25.51%	-139.31%

Stoneco Corporate Events

StoneCo Files 2025 Financials and Audit Opinion Highlighting Software Divestment and Credit Risk

StoneCo Ltd. has filed its Form 6-K for December 2025, incorporating unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements as of December 31, 2025 into an existing share-based compensation registration, and simultaneously released its audited consolidated financial statements for the three years ended December 31, 2025. On March 2, 2026, independent auditor Ernst & Young issued an unqualified opinion on those IFRS financials, highlighting as critical audit matters the 2025 classification and measurement of a major software-business disposal group as held for sale and discontinued operations, and the complex modeling of expected credit losses in the company’s credit portfolio, both of which are key to assessing asset quality and future earnings for investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (STNE) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stoneco stock, see the STNE Stock Forecast page.

StoneCo Posts Strong 2025 Earnings as It Refocuses on Core Fintech Operations

StoneCo reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on March 2, 2026, highlighting adjusted gross profit from continuing operations of R$ 6.3 billion, up 13.5% year-on-year, and adjusted basic earnings per share of R$ 9.71, a 33.6% increase. Management emphasized a stronger balance sheet with a net cash position and a return on equity that reached 26% in the final quarter.

In 2025, StoneCo undertook a strategic simplification of its business, notably divesting its Linx software assets to TOTVS for more than R$ 3.0 billion and refocusing on its core payments, banking and credit franchise. The company reported moderated TPV growth as it prioritized profitable volumes, accelerated credit expansion with controlled delinquencies, rolled out new products for merchants, invested in a unified tech platform, and deployed artificial intelligence in core workflows to drive efficiency and reinforce its competitive position.

The most recent analyst rating on (STNE) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stoneco stock, see the STNE Stock Forecast page.

StoneCo Closes Linx Sale After Unconditional CADE Approval

StoneCo Ltd., a Brazilian-focused fintech headquartered in the Cayman Islands, has built an ecosystem that integrates payments, banking, credit, and business management software to help merchants operate and grow across physical and digital channels. Its model combines financial services with software partnerships and native horizontal solutions embedded in the broader Stone platform.

On February 27, 2026, StoneCo announced it had successfully closed the sale of Linx after all conditions were met, including unconditional approval from Brazil’s antitrust authority CADE on February 20, 2026. The company said it will continue to address clients’ software needs through partnerships and its own integrated solutions, and plans to detail how the sale proceeds will be allocated during its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call on March 2, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (STNE) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stoneco stock, see the STNE Stock Forecast page.

StoneCo Unveils March 2026 CEO Transition and Broader Leadership Overhaul

On January 7, 2026, StoneCo announced a major leadership reshuffle centered on the resignation of CEO Pedro Zinner, effective March 2026, for personal reasons, after a three-year tenure in which he led a strategic pivot that included divesting non-core assets such as Linx, streamlining operations, tightening capital allocation and expanding the firm’s evolution from a pure payments player into a broader financial services platform for Brazilian entrepreneurs. To maintain strategic continuity and governance stability, the board plans to nominate Zinner to join the board and, subject to shareholder approval, become its next chairman, while current CFO and Investor Relations Officer Mateus Scherer will be promoted to CEO in March 2026, treasury executive Diego Salgado will step up as CFO and Investor Relations Officer, senior executive Lia Matos will depart and continue as an advisor, and, following completion of the Linx divestiture, Sandro Bassili is expected to assume the role of chief operating officer, signaling an emphasis on internal succession, execution discipline and long-term value creation for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (STNE) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stoneco stock, see the STNE Stock Forecast page.

StoneCo Launches New R$2 Billion Share Buyback After Fully Distributing 2024 Excess Capital

On December 22, 2025, StoneCo announced that its board had approved a new share repurchase program, authorized on December 18, 2025, allowing the company to buy back up to R$2 billion of its outstanding Class A common shares with no set expiration date, replacing a prior program under which it had repurchased 21,872,021 shares at an average price of US$16.34 per share for a total of R$1.95 billion. The company also confirmed it has now fully distributed the R$3 billion in excess capital generated from its 2024 results through share buybacks, underscoring its commitment to returning surplus capital to shareholders when it lacks immediate value-accretive investment opportunities, and said it will update investors on excess capital from 2025 results in its upcoming fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release.

The most recent analyst rating on (STNE) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stoneco stock, see the STNE Stock Forecast page.