The ONE Group Hospitality (STKS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $56.92M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 38.55K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.47
• Revenue Growth: 51.57%
• EPS Growth: -367.14%
• Country: US
• Employees: 10,800
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.18
• Shares Outstanding: 31,104,780
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 37,274
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 38,552
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): -0.73
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.07
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 12.38
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.87
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.01
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.24
• 1Y Price Target: $4.67
• Price Target Upside: 155.19% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.26
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $844.63M

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▲(9.29% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/20/26

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (rising leverage with negative equity, worsening net losses, and persistent negative free cash flow) and a bearish technical setup. Offsetting factors include a mixed-but-improving strategic narrative from the earnings call and positive corporate updates around asset-light expansion and reduced capex, though valuation support is limited due to losses and no dividend.

Positive Factors

Asset-light expansion and franchise deals

A large asset-light development deal materially shifts the growth model toward franchising and rights sales, reducing capital intensity and enabling faster footprint expansion. Over months this supports higher ROIC potential and lowers ongoing capex burdens versus company-owned builds.

Large, growing loyalty program

A 6.5M-member loyalty base provides a durable, data-driven channel for repeat visits, targeted marketing and yield improvement. Sustained membership growth supports higher frequency, better customer LTV and more predictable demand across quarters and seasons.

Operational margin improvement

Incremental improvement in EBIT/EBITDA margins indicates that cost controls and operational initiatives are taking hold. If sustained, modest margin expansion can compound through higher cash generation and fund further asset-light growth or debt reduction over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

High leverage and weak balance sheet

Significant leverage constrains financial flexibility, increases interest expense sensitivity, and raises refinancing risk during downturns. Over a multi-month horizon, high debt levels limit the firm's ability to pursue opportunistic investments or absorb operational shocks.

Negative free cash flow

Persistent negative free cash flow restricts the company’s ability to pay down debt, fund conversions, or invest in growth without external financing. This structural cash shortfall increases reliance on capital markets and hampers long-term balance sheet repair.

Worsening net losses and impairments

A sharp increase in net loss, driven by impairments and valuation adjustments, signals recurring profitability challenges and potential asset write-downs. Such losses erode equity, reduce investor flexibility, and can necessitate further cost cuts or asset disposals over the medium term.

The ONE Group Hospitality Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc., a hospitality company, develops, owns, operates, manages, and licenses restaurants and lounges worldwide. It operates through STK, Kona Grill, and ONE Hospitality segments. The company also provides turn-key food and beverage services for hospitality venues, including hotels, casinos, and other locations. Its hospitality food and beverage solutions include developing, managing, and operating restaurants, bars, rooftops, pools, banqueting, catering, private dining rooms, room service, and mini bars; and offers hospitality advisory and consulting services. The company operates restaurants primarily under the STK and Kona Grill brands. As of December 31, 2021, it owned, operated, managed, or licensed 60 venues, including 23 STKs and 24 Kona Grills in North America, Europe, and the Middle East, as well as 13 F&B venues in seven hotels and casinos in the United States and Europe. The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

The company makes money primarily by operating full-service restaurants and lounges. Its core revenue stream is food and beverage sales to guests dining on-premise (including premium steakhouse offerings, cocktails, wine, and other beverages). Additional revenue is generated from hosting private events and large-party dining, where per-event spending and service charges can be meaningful. Like most full-service restaurant operators, profitability depends on restaurant-level margins driven by guest traffic, average check size, menu mix (food vs. higher-margin beverage sales), and the company’s ability to manage key costs such as labor, occupancy (rent), and food inputs. Information on specific major partnerships, franchise/royalty revenue, or other material non-restaurant revenue streams is null.

The ONE Group Hospitality Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial quality is weak: profitability deteriorated with a deeper net loss (net margin ~-11.4% in 2025) and gross margin pressure, while leverage surged (debt up sharply and equity turned negative), and free cash flow stayed negative despite positive operating cash flow.

Income Statement

Revenue expanded sharply from 2020 to 2024, but 2025 saw a modest pullback (about -1.8%). Profitability has deteriorated meaningfully: 2025 net margin fell to roughly -11.4% versus about -2.4% in 2024, despite still-positive operating margin (~5.4%) and a mid-teens-level EBITDA margin (~10.8%). Gross margin also compressed versus prior years, pointing to higher cost pressures and weaker earnings quality at the bottom line.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is a major concern. Total debt rose dramatically over time (roughly $199M in 2023 to ~$651M in 2025), and 2025 stockholders’ equity turned negative (about -$76M), which materially weakens the capital structure and financial flexibility. With negative equity, traditional leverage signals are effectively stressed, and the balance sheet risk profile is elevated for a cyclical consumer-facing business.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remained positive in 2025 (~$30M), but it declined from 2024 and has not been strong enough to consistently cover funding needs. Free cash flow was negative across 2022–2025 (about -$27M in 2025), indicating ongoing cash burn after investment spending. While cash generation from operations exists, the continued negative free cash flow increases reliance on financing, especially given the higher debt load.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	805.72M	673.34M	332.77M	316.64M	277.18M
Gross Profit	95.88M	122.75M	65.79M	66.58M	65.18M
EBITDA	86.95M	40.72M	34.02M	28.44M	38.57M
Net Income	-92.24M	-15.82M	4.72M	13.53M	31.35M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	884.20M	959.35M	317.25M	291.02M	229.84M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.67M	27.58M	21.05M	55.12M	23.61M
Total Debt	651.10M	641.02M	199.29M	183.63M	132.64M
Total Liabilities	772.72M	756.75M	249.88M	222.43M	169.31M
Stockholders Equity	-75.84M	205.25M	69.18M	69.71M	61.43M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-27.28M	-27.37M	-22.77M	-7.38M	19.50M
Operating Cash Flow	30.31M	44.19M	30.78M	25.25M	30.97M
Investing Cash Flow	-57.59M	-441.39M	-53.55M	-32.63M	-11.47M
Financing Cash Flow	3.87M	404.34M	-11.25M	39.10M	-20.27M

The ONE Group Hospitality Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.83
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STKS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.94, below the 50-day MA of 2.09, and below the 200-day MA of 2.59, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for STKS.

The ONE Group Hospitality Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BDL	65 Neutral	$62.00M	17.07	8.92%	1.89%	8.99%	49.97%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
ARKR	50 Neutral	$24.94M	6.41	-29.84%	―	-9.70%	-194.23%
STKS	47 Neutral	$56.92M	-0.60	-51.90%	―	51.57%	-367.14%
RRGB	47 Neutral	$58.74M	-3.16	25.76%	―	-3.61%	2.06%
NDLS	43 Neutral	$38.80M	-0.81	203.92%	―	-0.35%	-37.02%
THCH	43 Neutral	$68.95M	-2.06	36.11%	―	-8.52%	49.12%

The ONE Group Hospitality Corporate Events

The ONE Group to Present at Sidoti Investor Conference

The ONE Group Hospitality announced it would present at Sidoti’s Small-Cap Virtual Investor Conference on March 19, 2026, with its presentation scheduled to begin at 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time and accessible through the Investor Relations section of its corporate website. The company also made an investor presentation available on its website, underscoring its ongoing efforts to engage the investment community and provide transparency into its business and financial outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (STKS) stock is a Buy with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on The ONE Group Hospitality stock, see the STKS Stock Forecast page.

The ONE Group Announces Strong 2025 Growth and Expansion Plans

On January 12, 2026, The ONE Group reported preliminary 2025 results indicating full-year GAAP revenue of about $805 million, up 20% from 2024 largely due to its May 2024 acquisition of Benihana, even as comparable sales are expected to fall 3.7%. Fourth-quarter 2025 revenue is projected at roughly $207 million, down 6.8% year over year, driven by planned RA Sushi and Kona Grill closures, the shift to a new 4-13-week fiscal calendar that removed New Year’s Eve from the quarter, and the resulting timing effects; STK is expected to post its first positive comparable sales quarter since 2023, Benihana is seen flat, and consolidated comparable sales improved sequentially by about four points. During 2025 the company opened multiple Benihana and STK locations, including a converted RA Sushi in Scottsdale, and in December 2025 it signed its largest asset-light development deal to date, securing rights for ten Benihana or Benihana Express units in the Greater San Francisco Bay Area while also expanding high-margin concessions in stadiums such as Phoenix’s Mortgage Matchup Center and UBS Arena in New York. Looking ahead to 2026, management plans to conserve cash and prioritize capital-efficient growth by sharply reducing discretionary capex, focusing new company-owned units on lower-cost builds, working through an existing lease pipeline, and converting up to nine additional Kona Grill and RA Sushi sites into Benihana or STK formats by the end of 2026, which are expected to be EBITDA-accretive and support a stronger balance sheet and more flexible growth profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (STKS) stock is a Buy with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on The ONE Group Hospitality stock, see the STKS Stock Forecast page.

The ONE Group Hospitality unveils major asset-light expansion

On December 23, 2025, The ONE Group Hospitality extended CEO Emanuel “Manny” Hilario’s employment agreement by four years to September 2, 2031, awarded him a $1 million one-time bonus subject to multi-year clawback provisions, and increased both his target annual bonus and long-term incentive grants to 200% of base salary, moves that further align executive pay with performance and continuity as the company pursues its growth strategy. In a December 29, 2025 development update, the company detailed its largest-ever asset-light deal, securing rights for ten Benihana and Benihana Express restaurants in the Greater San Francisco Bay Area, renewed and expanded high-margin concession partnerships at major sports arenas in Phoenix and New York, reported strong early performance from two new capital-efficient STK openings in Scottsdale and Oak Brook, launched Benihana-branded Teriyaki Flavored Crispy Chicken Chips with Flock Foods to extend the brand into retail snacking, and outlined a 2026 plan centered on reduced discretionary capex, focusing new company-owned builds on low-cost second-generation units, working through an existing lease pipeline, and converting up to nine Kona Grill and RA Sushi sites to Benihana or STK formats to drive EBITDA-accretive, asset-light growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (STKS) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on The ONE Group Hospitality stock, see the STKS Stock Forecast page.