Suntory Beverage (STBFY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.64B
• Dividend Yield: 2.75%
• Average Volume (3M): 9.11K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.09
• Revenue Growth: 2.31%
• EPS Growth: -11.88%
• Country: US
• Employees: 23,000
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Alcoholic
• EPS (TTM): 0.14
• Shares Outstanding: 618,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,585
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,105
• PEG Ratio: -33.63
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.81
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.29
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 143.82
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.72
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.92
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.14
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.98
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $11.71B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $15.50 ▼(-1.96% Downside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 02/18/26

STBFY scores well primarily on financial strength—especially its very conservative balance sheet and steady revenue/profit profile—supported by a reasonable P/E and dividend yield. The overall score is tempered by choppy free-cash-flow conversion and a mixed/neutral technical picture.

Positive Factors

Very low leverage / strong balance sheet

Exceptionally low leverage and falling debt give the company durable financial flexibility: supports capex, marketing, or opportunistic M&A without stressing liquidity. This reduces refinancing risk and helps sustain dividends and operations through economic cycles over the next 2–6 months and beyond.

Steady revenue growth and improving profitability

Multi-year top-line growth and higher operating profit versus 2020 indicate resilient demand for core products and effective cost control. That sustained revenue and margin traction supports predictable earnings and operating leverage, underpinning medium-term cash generation and strategic planning.

Diversified go-to-market channels and brand reach

A broad route-to-market mix (retail, convenience, vending, food-service) plus established beverage brands creates durable distribution advantages. Channel diversification lowers concentration risk, preserves shelf and outlet presence, and supports steady unit volumes across different consumer behaviours over time.

Negative Factors

Volatile free cash flow / cash conversion

Inconsistent free cash flow and weak cash conversion in several years reduce the reliability of internally generated funds for investment, dividends, or debt reduction. This volatility elevates execution risk and may force more conservative capital allocation in the medium term.

Margin pressure versus recent peaks

Sustained margin compression versus prior peak years suggests cost inflation or adverse mix trends. Lower margins persistently squeeze free cash flow and returns, limiting reinvestment capacity and making the business more sensitive to input-cost shocks over the coming months.

Moderate returns on equity not accelerating

Mid-to-high single-digit ROE indicates moderate capital efficiency and limited high-return growth opportunities. Without improving ROE, incremental investments may produce only modest shareholder returns, constraining long-term EPS leverage and valuation-insensitive resilience.

Suntory Beverage Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Suntory Beverage & Food Limited (STBFY) is a global beverage company based in Japan, specializing in a diverse range of non-alcoholic beverages. The company operates in various sectors, including soft drinks, bottled water, tea, and coffee. Suntory is known for its iconic brands, such as Orangina, Ribena, and the popular bottled water brand, Suntory Tennensui. With a strong focus on innovation and sustainability, the company aims to meet the evolving preferences of consumers worldwide.

How the Company Makes Money

The company makes money primarily by selling non-alcoholic beverages and related products to consumers through multiple go-to-market channels. Its core revenue stream is the sale of branded ready-to-drink beverages (e.g., tea, coffee, carbonated soft drinks, water, and functional beverages), which it produces and then sells into wholesale and retail distribution (such as supermarkets, convenience stores, and other retailers) as well as through direct/route-based channels. A material portion of sales in Japan is also generated via vending machine distribution and other on-premise/food-service placements, where products are sold either directly to end customers or supplied to operators. In addition to beverages, the company earns revenue from certain food products and beverage-related ingredients depending on the market and business segment. Overall earnings are driven by unit volumes sold and product mix (including premium and value offerings), pricing and promotional strategies, brand strength, distribution reach (notably vending and retail availability), and operating efficiency in manufacturing and logistics. Specific, material partnerships or licensing arrangements are null.

Suntory Beverage Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are solid overall: steady revenue growth and improving profitability versus 2020, plus an exceptionally strong, low-leverage balance sheet. The key offset is cash-flow volatility and weaker cash conversion in some recent years, which lowers the quality/consistency of free cash flow.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded steadily from 2020–2025 (2020 decline followed by multiple years of growth, including ~5.5% in 2025). Profitability is stable and improving versus earlier years: net income is higher than 2020 and operating profit has grown alongside sales. The main offset is margin pressure versus peak levels (gross margin and EBITDA margin were higher in 2021–2022 than in 2023–2024), suggesting cost inflation or mix headwinds.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet strength is a standout: leverage is very low and improving, with total debt falling sharply from 2020 to 2025 and a very low debt-to-equity level in 2024 (~0.02). Equity and total assets have also grown consistently, supporting financial flexibility. A modest watch item is that returns on equity are solid but not accelerating meaningfully (generally mid-to-high single digits), implying growth is not overly high-return.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is healthy with consistently positive operating cash flow and free cash flow across the period, but volatility is notable. Free cash flow growth swung from strong in 2021 to declines in 2022–2023, improved in 2024, then fell again in 2025 (~-14%). In 2023–2024, free cash flow covered less than half of net income, indicating working-capital or investment demands can reduce cash conversion in some years.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.80T	1.70T	1.59T	1.45T	1.27T
Gross Profit	673.11B	646.88B	590.00B	552.52B	523.18B
EBITDA	252.59B	242.75B	219.09B	212.11B	188.45B
Net Income	93.03B	93.50B	82.74B	82.32B	68.68B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.22T	2.06T	1.91T	1.78T	1.68T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	148.76B	165.05B	173.42B	203.75B	177.91B
Total Debt	15.47B	27.22B	74.43B	122.75B	165.35B
Total Liabilities	793.35B	742.75B	727.39B	723.25B	732.98B
Stockholders Equity	1.32T	1.21T	1.09T	965.22B	860.59B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	68.47B	85.42B	79.06B	90.28B	102.06B
Operating Cash Flow	167.03B	193.73B	158.29B	150.51B	158.18B
Investing Cash Flow	-93.15B	-101.30B	-77.80B	-42.40B	-56.87B
Financing Cash Flow	-88.06B	-112.04B	-115.40B	-92.21B	-96.11B

Suntory Beverage Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 15.81
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STBFY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.88, above the 50-day MA of 15.49, and above the 200-day MA of 15.61, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.41 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.70 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for STBFY.

Suntory Beverage Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ABEV	80 Outperform	$42.91B	13.63	16.90%	8.22%	-0.68%	4.29%
STBFY	71 Outperform	$8.64B	15.67	7.15%	2.75%	2.31%	-11.88%
FMX	70 Outperform	$20.52B	35.36	7.60%	4.33%	1.44%	-38.87%
BUD	68 Neutral	$136.04B	18.53	12.35%	1.83%	-2.06%	21.03%
COKE	68 Neutral	$13.41B	19.79	56.69%	0.61%	4.22%	22.24%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
TAP	49 Neutral	$8.24B	-4.26	-18.18%	4.08%	-4.01%	-339.22%