Super Micro Computer (SMCI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.30B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 31.21M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.9
• Beta (1Y): 3.28
• Revenue Growth: 12.22%
• EPS Growth: -48.34%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,684
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Computer Hardware
• EPS (TTM): 0.69
• Shares Outstanding: 598,989,440
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 43,960,614
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 31,210,052
• PEG Ratio: 0.00
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.62
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.32
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.07
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.47
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.97
• 1Y Price Target: $34.33
• Price Target Upside: 67.22% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.21
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $40.67B

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $21.50 ▲(4.72% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/21/26

The score is primarily driven by strong revenue momentum but meaningfully weaker quality of earnings (sharp margin compression), higher leverage, and volatile cash conversion. Technicals are notably weak with the stock far below major moving averages despite oversold readings. Valuation is a relative support given the low P/E, while the earnings call was mixed: raised revenue outlook and operational initiatives offset by concentration, inventory, and margin risks.

Positive Factors

AI-led Demand & Revenue Momentum

Concentration of demand in AI GPU systems and a record quarter reflect durable structural tailwinds from generative AI and hyperscaler capacity builds. High share of AI workloads implies persistent demand for GPU-optimized platforms, supporting sustained top-line growth and scale advantages in systems integration and engineering.

Higher‑margin DCBBS product expansion

Expanding Data Center Building Block Solutions into multiple subsystems creates a pathway to diversify revenue mix into higher-margin integrated offerings. If realized, >20% gross margin potential and targeted double-digit profit contribution would improve overall profitability and reduce reliance on low-margin commodity servers over the medium term.

Strengthened liquidity & financing access

Established revolving facilities, factoring and multi‑jurisdictional credit lines materially enhance working‑capital capacity to procure components and scale production. Durable financing access reduces short‑term liquidity risk during large build cycles and supports supply‑chain financing for sustained revenue ramps.

Negative Factors

Extreme customer concentration

Very high single‑customer exposure creates structural revenue concentration risk: pricing leverage, order timing, or a contract loss could sharply swing margins and utilization. Over months this undermines predictability, constrains negotiating leverage, and raises dependency risk for capital allocation and production planning.

Sustained margin compression

Sharp, persistent gross margin erosion signals structural cost pressure from mix shifts to low‑margin customer deals, higher freight/expedite costs and component shortages. Sustained lower margins reduce operating leverage benefits from scale and make it harder to fund R&D, manufacturing investments, and margin recovery initiatives over the medium term.

Regulatory & compliance/legal risk

An export‑control indictment and related governance actions create lasting legal, compliance and reputational risk that can impair global sales, supplier relationships and government contracting. Ongoing investigations may lead to restrictions, fines or contract losses, increasing oversight costs and complicating long‑term customer diversification.

Super Micro Computer Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and manufactures high performance server and storage solutions based on modular and open architecture in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. Its solutions range from complete server, storage systems, modular blade servers, blades, workstations, full racks, networking devices, server sub-systems, server management software, and security software. The company provides application-optimized server solutions, rackmount and blade servers, storage, and subsystems and accessories; and server software management solutions, such as Server Management Suite, including Supermicro Server Manager, Supermicro Power Management software, Supermicro Update Manager, SuperCloud Composer, and SuperDoctor 5. In addition, it offers server subsystems and accessories comprising server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories. Further, the company provides server and storage system integration, configuration, and software upgrade and update services; and technical documentation services, as well as identifies service requirements, creates and executes project plans, and conducts verification testing and technical documentation, and training services. Additionally, it offers help desk and on-site product support services for its server and storage systems; and customer support services, including ongoing maintenance and technical support for its products. The company provides its products to enterprise data centers, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and 5G and edge computing markets. It sells its products through direct and indirect sales force, distributors, value-added resellers, system integrators, and original equipment manufacturers. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Supermicro primarily makes money by selling hardware systems and related solutions, with revenue recognized from the delivery of configured server and storage platforms and associated components to customers such as hyperscale/cloud providers, enterprises, and integrators. Key revenue streams include: (1) Server and compute systems: sales of rackmount servers, multi-node systems, blade systems, and GPU-optimized/accelerated platforms used for AI training/inference and high-performance computing; these systems are typically configured-to-order using CPUs, GPUs, memory, storage devices, and networking components sourced from suppliers. (2) Storage and data infrastructure: sales of storage servers, JBOD/expansion systems, and platforms designed for software-defined storage and high-capacity deployments. (3) Rack-scale and integrated solutions: higher-level solutions that can include full racks, clusters, and data-center building blocks (often incorporating power and thermal design considerations), sold as integrated deployments rather than single servers. (4) Software, support, and services: service revenues such as support contracts, maintenance/warranty-related services, and professional services tied to system deployment and lifecycle needs (to the extent offered in a given contract). Supermicro’s earnings are influenced by its ability to deliver rapidly updated platforms aligned with new CPU/GPU generations and to supply and integrate key components from major semiconductor and hardware ecosystems; it captures value through system design, engineering, manufacturing/assembly, integration, and logistics, rather than by producing the underlying chips. Significant factors that can contribute to revenue performance include demand cycles for data-center expansion (especially AI infrastructure), design wins and volume orders from large customers, and the company’s relationships across the server-component supply chain (e.g., CPU, GPU, memory, storage, and networking vendors) that enable it to offer validated configurations and bring new platforms to market quickly. Specific partnership terms, customer concentration figures, and segment revenue breakdowns: null.

Super Micro Computer Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong top-line momentum (33.3% TTM growth) and sizeable net income, but profitability has compressed sharply (gross margin ~10.1% TTM vs 18.0% FY2023; net margin ~3.77% TTM vs 8.98% FY2023). Leverage has risen materially (debt-to-equity ~0.73 TTM vs 0.15 FY2023), and cash-flow conversion has been volatile with weaker recent conversion versus earnings.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled rapidly over the last several years, culminating in 33.3% growth in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), demonstrating strong demand momentum. However, profitability has compressed meaningfully as the business scaled: gross margin fell from 18.0% (FY2023) to ~10.1% in TTM, and net margin declined from 8.98% (FY2023) to ~3.77% in TTM. Net income remains solid in dollars ($873M TTM), but the margin trajectory and the drop in EBITDA versus EBIT in TTM point to a less favorable earnings mix and higher cost burden versus prior years.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows increased leverage as the company grew: debt-to-equity rose from 0.15 (FY2023) to ~0.73 in TTM, and total debt expanded to ~$4.86B. Equity has also grown to ~$6.99B, which provides a buffer, but leverage is materially higher than in earlier periods. Returns on equity remain decent (12.5% TTM), though down from stronger levels in prior years (e.g., 32.5% in FY2023), reflecting both margin compression and heavier balance-sheet intensity.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive in TTM with operating cash flow of ~$549M and free cash flow of ~$440M, and free cash flow growth is strong versus the prior period. That said, cash conversion is weaker in the latest TTM: operating cash flow covers only ~14% of net income, and free cash flow is ~65% of net income, suggesting working-capital pressure and/or less efficient conversion of earnings into cash. Volatility is also evident historically, with large negative operating and free cash flow in FY2024 despite strong reported profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	28.06B	21.97B	14.99B	7.12B	5.20B	3.56B
Gross Profit	2.25B	2.43B	2.06B	1.28B	800.00M	534.54M
EBITDA	1.20B	1.33B	1.27B	799.69M	375.72M	149.30M
Net Income	872.78M	1.05B	1.15B	640.00M	285.16M	111.86M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	28.00B	14.02B	9.83B	3.67B	3.21B	2.24B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.09B	5.17B	1.67B	440.46M	267.40M	232.27M
Total Debt	4.91B	4.78B	2.18B	290.30M	620.56M	119.05M
Total Liabilities	21.01B	7.72B	4.41B	1.70B	1.78B	1.15B
Stockholders Equity	6.99B	6.30B	5.42B	1.97B	1.43B	1.10B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	440.09M	1.53B	-2.61B	626.79M	-485.98M	64.94M
Operating Cash Flow	548.96M	1.66B	-2.49B	663.58M	-440.80M	122.95M
Investing Cash Flow	-189.87M	-183.21M	-194.25M	-39.49M	-46.28M	-58.02M
Financing Cash Flow	2.41B	2.02B	3.91B	-448.29M	522.87M	-44.44M

Super Micro Computer Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 20.53
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMCI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 20.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.05, below the 50-day MA of 31.06, and below the 200-day MA of 40.79, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.00 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.07 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.81 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SMCI.

Super Micro Computer Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ANET	82 Outperform	$164.88B	43.11	31.01%	―	27.75%	25.42%
CSCO	74 Outperform	$306.71B	23.23	23.64%	2.09%	8.91%	14.53%
DELL	70 Outperform	$101.82B	13.34	-218.24%	1.45%	19.15%	―
HPE	65 Neutral	$28.78B	17.34	-0.64%	2.17%	14.17%	-102.25%
NTAP	64 Neutral	$19.95B	14.44	116.57%	1.89%	2.64%	4.12%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
SMCI	59 Neutral	$12.30B	10.90	13.33%	―	12.22%	-48.34%

Super Micro Computer Corporate Events

Super Micro Computer Amends Credit Agreement, Lowers Loan Costs

On January 26, 2026, Super Micro Computer, Inc. amended its existing credit agreement originally dated December 29, 2025, with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and a syndicate of lenders. The amendment updates the agreement to reflect the company’s fiscal year-end change from December 31 to June 30 and aligns related financial representations with the new reporting calendar, which may streamline compliance and financial reporting under the facility. It also reduces the initial applicable margin on loans immediately following the closing date through the third business day after delivery of the first post-closing compliance certificate, lowering pricing from Level III to Level I for both Term Benchmark Loans and Base Rate Loans, which is expected to reduce near-term borrowing costs while leaving the rest of the credit agreement unchanged.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMCI) stock is a Hold with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Super Micro Computer stock, see the SMCI Stock Forecast page.

Super Micro Computer Secures Major New Credit Facilities

On January 21, 2026, Super Micro Computer, Inc. Taiwan, a wholly owned subsidiary of Super Micro Computer, Inc., entered into a Taiwan‑law governed credit agreement establishing two revolving credit facilities totaling $710 million, with an option to expand aggregate commitments up to $2 billion. The facilities, backed by a corporate guarantee from the U.S. parent and secured by a second‑ranking lien on the Taiwan Bade District facility, receivables, and significant term deposits, are intended primarily to finance procurement of components and raw materials and to support working capital for growth and business expansion, with detailed pricing, fees, covenants, and default triggers that tighten financial discipline and link continued access to funding to Super Micro’s Nasdaq listing status. The agreement, which matures one year after initial utilization and can be extended twice by one year each time, enhances the company’s liquidity and supply‑chain financing capacity but also imposes restrictive covenants and default conditions that could affect operations and capital allocation if breached; separately, the company set April 15, 2026 as the date for its next virtual annual meeting of stockholders, with February 17, 2026 as the record date and February 5, 2026 as the new deadline for shareholder proposals and director nominations, signaling an adjusted governance calendar following a shift in annual meeting timing.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMCI) stock is a Hold with a $33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Super Micro Computer stock, see the SMCI Stock Forecast page.

Super Micro Computer Secures New $2 Billion Credit Facility

On December 29, 2025, Super Micro Computer, Inc. entered into a new Credit Agreement establishing a revolving credit facility of up to $2 billion, including a $200 million letter-of-credit sub-limit and a $150 million same-day borrowing sub-limit, with an option to increase total revolving commitments by up to an additional $1 billion. The facility, which matures on December 29, 2030, is intended to support working capital and general corporate purposes, and features interest margins and commitment fees that vary based on the company’s leverage ratio or investment-grade credit ratings, along with customary financial covenants, leverage tests, and events of default; during non-investment-grade periods, the facility will be guaranteed and secured by substantially all assets of certain subsidiaries, with those guarantees and liens falling away if the company attains and maintains specified investment-grade ratings, underscoring a flexible capital structure and rating-linked covenant relief that may enhance its financial and strategic flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMCI) stock is a Hold with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Super Micro Computer stock, see the SMCI Stock Forecast page.