Southern Missouri Bancorp (SMBC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $687.71M
• Dividend Yield: 1.59%
• Average Volume (3M): 55.13K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.90
• Revenue Growth: 9.34%
• EPS Growth: 25.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: 693
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 1.62
• Shares Outstanding: 11,108,279
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 66,272
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 55,130
• PEG Ratio: 0.61
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.13
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.02
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.18
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.02
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.23
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.79
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.67
• 1Y Price Target: $68.33
• Price Target Upside: 10.37% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.15
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $200.30M

• Rating: 79 Outperform
• Price Target: $75.00 ▲(21.14% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/12/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (solid profitability and cash generation with improving leverage) and supportive technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). Valuation is reasonable but not deeply discounted, and earnings-call commentary is positive overall, tempered by localized credit issues and near-term repricing/seasonality risks.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Free cash flow that closely tracks net income demonstrates high earnings quality and reliable internal funding. Over a multi-quarter horizon this supports dividend continuity, buybacks, capital for origination growth or M&A, and provides a cushion against credit volatility without heavy external financing.

Capital build and shareholder returns

Rising tangible book and active repurchases signal stronger capital generation and disciplined capital allocation. This improves loss-absorbing capacity, preserves franchise value, and maintains optionality for organic growth or acquisitions while returning excess capital to shareholders over the medium term.

Sustained loan production and core deposit growth

High originations and a meaningful loan pipeline paired with core deposit growth indicate durable franchise lending momentum and stable funding. This supports repeatable net interest income expansion, reduces reliance on brokered funding, and underpins mid-single-digit loan growth guidance over coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Localized credit deterioration

New nonaccruals highlight idiosyncratic credit stress within the loan book. If additional problem relationships emerge, provisions and charge-offs could rise, pressuring earnings and requiring higher ACLs, which would materially affect profitability and capital deployment over several quarters.

Agriculture sector concentration risk

Notable exposure to farm customers faces cyclical revenue and cashflow volatility from commodity prices and input costs. Concentrated agricultural pressure can drive problem loans, reduce lending activity seasonally, and increase earnings volatility for multiple quarters without a sustained recovery in farm economics.

Repricing and maturity mismatches

Large upcoming loan and CD maturities create structural repricing risk: funding costs may reprice faster than new asset yields, compressing margins. Persistent spread pressure or elevated prepayments could reduce NIM and earnings power until balance sheet repricing converges, impacting results across several quarters.

Southern Missouri Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Southern Bank that provides banking and financial services to individuals and corporate customers in the United States. The company offers business banking, business financing, and business services. It also provides personal banking services, which include online and mobile banking, checking and savings, mortgage and refinance, and loans and credit services. In addition, the company offers investing and insurance services. Further, it provides accounts and digital banking services; and debit or credit cards. As of June 30, 2021, the company operated 46 full-service branch offices, and two limited-service branch offices located in Poplar Bluff, Van Buren, Dexter, Kennett, Doniphan, Sikeston, Qulin, Matthews, Springfield, Thayer, West Plains, Alton, Clever, Forsyth, Fremont Hills, Kimberling City, Ozark, Nixa, Rogersville, Marshfield, Cape Girardeau, Jackson, Gideon, Chaffee, Benton, Advance, Bloomfield, Essex, and Rolla, Missouri; Jonesboro, Paragould, Batesville, Searcy, Bald Knob, Bradford, and Cabot, Arkansas; and Anna, Cairo, and Tamms, Illinois. Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Poplar Bluff, Missouri.

How the Company Makes Money

Southern Missouri Bancorp generates revenue primarily through interest income from its lending operations, which includes commercial, residential, and consumer loans. The company earns interest by charging borrowers for the loans provided, with rates varying based on credit risk and market conditions. Additionally, SMBC generates non-interest income through fees on deposit accounts, transaction fees, and wealth management services. The bank also benefits from its investment portfolio, earning interest and dividends on securities. Key partnerships with local businesses and community organizations enhance its customer reach and contribute to its earnings by fostering a loyal client base.

Southern Missouri Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong TTM profitability and momentum (solid net/EBIT margins) supported by robust operating and free cash flow with good earnings quality. Balance sheet leverage appears controlled and improving, but returns and margins have compressed versus 2021–2022 and historical free-cash-flow growth has been somewhat variable.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue rose to $313.1M with an exceptionally strong reported growth rate, and profitability remains solid with ~20.8% net margin and ~26.4% EBIT margin. Compared with recent annual periods, revenue and earnings have scaled meaningfully, but margins are down versus earlier years (notably 2021–2022), suggesting profitability has normalized even as the top line accelerated.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks controlled for a regional bank, with debt-to-equity improving to ~0.26 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) from higher levels in 2023, and equity building to $567.4M alongside asset growth to $5.09B. Returns are healthy but moderate (ROE ~11.8% TTM), down from peak levels in 2021–2022, indicating a less favorable earnings environment even with a steadier capital profile.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow was $89.0M and free cash flow was $84.1M, with free cash flow closely matching net income (about 0.95x), supporting earnings quality. Free cash flow growth is very strong in TTM, though it has shown variability historically (including a decline in 2023), which slightly tempers the stability outlook.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	313.08M	305.25M	273.22M	202.62M	138.07M	129.52M
Gross Profit	184.46M	176.08M	160.73M	135.89M	123.28M	113.75M
EBITDA	91.09M	84.02M	73.20M	57.02M	65.83M	65.13M
Net Income	65.20M	58.31M	50.18M	39.24M	47.17M	47.18M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.09B	5.02B	4.60B	4.36B	3.21B	2.70B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	579.27M	653.95M	489.30M	472.77M	326.95M	331.59M
Total Debt	145.28M	142.28M	134.60M	156.62M	61.01M	72.77M
Total Liabilities	4.53B	4.47B	4.12B	3.91B	2.89B	2.42B
Stockholders Equity	567.36M	544.69M	488.75M	446.06M	320.77M	283.42M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	84.13M	75.29M	61.22M	55.98M	62.73M	48.91M
Operating Cash Flow	88.98M	81.56M	70.27M	62.02M	67.34M	51.76M
Investing Cash Flow	-179.16M	-285.11M	-245.74M	-213.41M	-303.93M	-101.92M
Financing Cash Flow	78.41M	335.51M	182.39M	118.55M	199.80M	119.50M

Southern Missouri Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 61.91
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMBC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 61.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 64.23, below the 50-day MA of 62.12, and above the 200-day MA of 56.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.49 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SMBC.

Southern Missouri Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SMBC	79 Outperform	$687.71M	10.71	11.54%	1.59%	9.34%	25.21%
HTBK	79 Outperform	$765.19M	16.03	6.26%	4.16%	8.23%	-0.07%
IBCP	79 Outperform	$719.05M	10.63	14.51%	3.09%	4.29%	10.56%
SPFI	77 Outperform	$667.38M	11.91	12.54%	1.57%	5.87%	37.99%
SMBK	75 Outperform	$667.67M	13.16	9.01%	0.84%	13.41%	41.78%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
HIFS	65 Neutral	$608.55M	11.27	10.23%	0.84%	8.26%	94.53%

Southern Missouri Bancorp Corporate Events

Southern Missouri Bancorp Announces Strong Q2 FY2026 Results

Southern Missouri Bancorp reported strong operating performance for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, with diluted earnings per share rising 24.6% year-on-year to $1.62 as of the quarter ended December 31, 2025, and returns on average assets and equity improving to 1.42% and 12.8%, respectively. Tangible book value per share reached $44.65, up 14.8% from a year earlier and reflecting a 9.6% five-year compound growth rate, while loans net of allowances climbed 5.0% year-on-year to $4.2 billion.

The company continued to deploy capital to shareholders, repurchasing 156,145 shares fiscal year-to-date 2026 at an average price of $54.46 and securing board approval on January 20, 2026, for a new authorization covering up to 550,000 additional shares, roughly 5% of outstanding stock. Management highlighted steady profitability trends, including rising net interest income and solid efficiency metrics, positioning the bank as a resilient regional consolidator following a series of successful acquisitions over the past decade and supporting its strategy of combining community banking focus with disciplined balance sheet growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMBC) stock is a Buy with a $69.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Southern Missouri Bancorp stock, see the SMBC Stock Forecast page.

Southern Missouri Bancorp Posts Strong Q2 Results, New Buyback

On January 21, 2026, Southern Missouri Bancorp reported preliminary net income of $18.2 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, up 23.9% year-on-year, with diluted earnings per share rising to $1.62, supported by higher net interest income and a stronger net interest margin of 3.57%. The bank’s profitability metrics improved, with annualized return on average assets increasing to 1.42% and return on average common equity to 12.8%, while balance sheet growth continued as total assets reached $5.1 billion and net loans rose 3.0% from June 30, 2025, driven by gains in residential, commercial, multi-family, and agricultural real estate lending. The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share on January 20, 2026, marking the company’s 127th consecutive quarterly payout, and authorized a new share repurchase program for up to 550,000 shares (about 5% of outstanding stock) after nearly completing its prior buyback, signaling confidence in capital strength and future performance while returning additional value to shareholders through both cash dividends and continued share repurchases.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMBC) stock is a Buy with a $70.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Southern Missouri Bancorp stock, see the SMBC Stock Forecast page.