Want to see SMBC full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Southern Missouri Bancorp
(NASDAQ:SMBC)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$89.00
â–²(14.65% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/28/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (accelerating revenue, solid profitability, and very strong cash generation) and a supportive uptrend versus key moving averages. These positives are tempered by earnings-call risks around near-term NIM pressure, credit-cost noise, and higher expected operating expense growth, while valuation is reasonable but not deeply discounted and the dividend yield is modest.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Near-complete cash conversion (FCF ≈98% of net income) indicates durable ability to fund dividends, buybacks, and investments from operations. Consistent cash flow improves financial flexibility, supports capital returns and M&A optionality, and reduces reliance on volatile external funding.
Negative Factors
Elevated credit costs
Rising charge-offs and higher provisioning introduce persistent credit volatility risk. Higher provisions and somewhat reduced allowance coverage can compress earnings and force more conservative capital deployment until credit metrics normalize, making near-term profitability less predictable.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Near-complete cash conversion (FCF ≈98% of net income) indicates durable ability to fund dividends, buybacks, and investments from operations. Consistent cash flow improves financial flexibility, supports capital returns and M&A optionality, and reduces reliance on volatile external funding.
Read all positive factors
Southern Missouri Bancorp Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Loan Portfolio Breakdown
Analyzes the composition of the bank's loan portfolio, highlighting areas of lending focus and potential risk exposure. This reveals insights into the bank's growth strategy and credit risk management.
Analyzes the composition of the bank's loan portfolio, highlighting areas of lending focus and potential risk exposure. This reveals insights into the bank's growth strategy and credit risk management.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySouthern Missouri Bancorp (SMBC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$852.72M
Dividend Yield1.29%
Average Volume (3M)55.13K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.0
Beta (1Y)0.89
Revenue Growth3.70%
EPS Growth24.24%
CountryUS
Employees718
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.01
Shares Outstanding11,015,632
10 Day Avg. Volume66,272
30 Day Avg. Volume55,130
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.61
Price to Book (P/B)1.13
Price to Sales (P/S)2.02
P/FCF Ratio8.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$83.67Price Target Upside7.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)6.52
Revenue Forecast (FY)$212.55M
Southern Missouri Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc., established in 1887 and headquartered in Poplar Bluff, Missouri, functions as the parent company for Southern Bank. Through its subsidiary, it delivers a comprehensive suite of banking and financial solutions to bo...
How the Company Makes Money
SMBC primarily makes money through its banking subsidiary by earning net interest income and generating noninterest income. Net interest income is the largest driver for most community banks and comes from the spread between (a) interest and fees ...
Southern Missouri Bancorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 22, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong financial highlights — notably significant EPS and ROA improvement, NIM expansion, loan growth, capital returns (buybacks and dividend increase), and favorable agricultural conditions — while also acknowledging heightened credit noise this quarter (increased net charge-offs, a higher provision, and elevated non-performing assets/OREO), deposit mix pressures from wholesale/broker funding, potential near-term NIM compression as short-term rates rise and CDs reprice, and expected expense re-acceleration. Management emphasized disciplined risk management, a solid capital position, and active M&A optionality. Overall, the positives around earnings, margin expansion, loan growth, capital actions, and constructive ag outlook outweigh the credit-related and funding headwinds, but the company will need to manage credit trends and deposit funding costs closely in fiscal 2027.Positive Updates
Strong EPS and Year-over-Year Earnings Growth
Diluted EPS of $1.83 in the June quarter, up $0.23 (14%) from the prior quarter and up $0.44 (32%) year-over-year; full-year fiscal 2026 EPS of $6.43 versus $5.18 in fiscal 2025 (24% increase).
Negative Updates
Increased Credit Costs and Provision
Provision for credit losses of $3.2M in the quarter, up $1.1M QoQ (from $2.1M in March); ACL methodology update and higher net charge-offs contributed to increased provisioning expectations going forward.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong EPS and Year-over-Year Earnings Growth
Diluted EPS of $1.83 in the June quarter, up $0.23 (14%) from the prior quarter and up $0.44 (32%) year-over-year; full-year fiscal 2026 EPS of $6.43 versus $5.18 in fiscal 2025 (24% increase).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance for fiscal 2027: management expects mid‑single‑digit loan growth, some near‑term pressure on net interest margin (Q4 NIM was 3.67% and NIM expanded ~22 bps in FY26) as short‑term rates and deposit competition rise (about 25% of deposits indexed to the 91‑day T‑bill, which is ~14 bps higher since early July), though modest loan repricing tailwinds exist (≈$550M of fixed‑rate loans maturing with new originations ~25 bps higher) while CD repricing is a larger headwind (≈$1.3B of CDs repricing over 12 months with new rates ~3–5 bps above maturing), a normalized effective tax rate of ~19–20% (vs. Q4 ETR of 11.9% driven by a $1.7M tax‑credit benefit), allowance for credit losses expected in a ~125–135 bps range (ACL was $54.9M or 1.25% of gross loans at 6/30/26 and 199% of NPLs), provisions may be higher near‑term after a $3.2M Q4 provision and $4.3M Q4 net charge‑offs but management expects charge‑offs to improve from the recent 17–18 bps pace toward historical 3–5 bps levels, operating expenses likely to re‑accelerate to mid‑ to single‑digit (up to high‑single‑digit) year‑over‑year growth driven by compensation and technology investments, and capital deployment to remain active (FY26 tangible book value $47.43, up 13% YoY; FY26 repurchases 317k shares using ~$19M; Q4 repurchase 4k shares at ~$69; dividend raised $0.02 to $0.27). Additionally, near‑term balance‑sheet data to note: loan pipeline ~$182M, Q4 originations ~$335M (up $85M YoY), gross loans +$291M YoY (+7.1%), and deposits +$67M Q4 (+1.5%) / +$126M YoY (~3%).Southern Missouri Bancorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 314.47M | 305.25M | 273.22M | 202.62M | 138.07M | 129.52M |
| Gross Profit | 187.31M | 176.08M | 160.73M | 135.89M | 123.28M | 113.75M |
| EBITDA | 93.00M | 84.02M | 73.20M | 57.02M | 65.83M | 65.13M |
| Net Income | 67.35M | 58.31M | 50.18M | 39.24M | 47.17M | 47.18M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.14B | 5.02B | 4.60B | 4.36B | 3.21B | 2.70B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 532.40M | 653.95M | 489.30M | 472.77M | 326.95M | 331.59M |
| Total Debt | 148.28M | 142.28M | 134.60M | 156.62M | 61.01M | 72.77M |
| Total Liabilities | 4.57B | 4.47B | 4.12B | 3.91B | 2.89B | 2.42B |
| Stockholders Equity | 573.51M | 544.69M | 488.75M | 446.06M | 320.77M | 283.42M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 89.94M | 75.29M | 61.22M | 55.98M | 62.73M | 48.91M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 93.87M | 81.56M | 70.27M | 62.02M | 67.34M | 51.76M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -284.32M | -285.11M | -245.74M | -213.41M | -303.93M | -101.92M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 56.59M | 335.51M | 182.39M | 118.55M | 199.80M | 119.50M |
Southern Missouri Bancorp Technical Analysis
Positive
77.63
Price Trends
74.34
Positive
70.22
Positive
64.61
Positive
Market Momentum
1.17
Positive
56.16
Neutral
68.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMBC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 77.63 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 77.22, above the 50-day MA of 74.34, and above the 200-day MA of 64.61, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SMBC.
Southern Missouri Bancorp Risk Analysis
Southern Missouri Bancorp disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Southern Missouri Bancorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Southern Missouri Bancorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $852.72M | 12.00 | 12.54% | 1.29% | 3.70% | 24.24% | |
80 Outperform | $858.50M | 11.74 | 12.36% | 1.52% | 6.59% | 14.68% | |
75 Outperform | $787.16M | 10.98 | 14.12% | 2.87% | 0.23% | 12.12% | |
74 Outperform | $895.96M | 15.32 | 10.30% | 0.84% | 11.55% | 37.08% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
57 Neutral | $621.76M | 9.41 | 13.73% | 1.15% | 12.91% | 95.79% |
* Financial Sector Average
SMBC
Southern Missouri Bancorp
77.91
26.92
52.79%
HIFS
Hingham Institution For Savings
299.42
59.29
24.69%
IBCP
Independent Bank
38.50
9.25
31.63%
SMBK
SmartFinancial
52.72
20.12
61.74%
SPFI
South Plains Financial
45.04
9.61
27.12%
Southern Missouri Bancorp Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Southern Missouri Bancorp Posts Strong Q4, Hikes Dividend
Positive
Jul 27, 2026
Southern Missouri Bancorp reported strong results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year ended June 30, 2026, highlighting robust profitability and balance sheet growth. Diluted earnings per share rose 31.7% year over year in the quarter to $1.83,...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Southern Missouri Bancorp Boosts Dividend Amid Strong Results
Positive
Jul 22, 2026
Southern Missouri Bancorp reported strong preliminary results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2026, with quarterly net income rising 28.5% year over year to $20.3 million and diluted EPS climbing to $1.83, driven by higher net interest...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Southern Missouri Bancorp Highlights Q3 2026 Results, Strategy
Positive
May 5, 2026
Southern Missouri Bancorp presented investor materials dated May 4, 2026, ahead of its appearance at the DA Davidson Financial Institutions Conference, highlighting its community-focused culture, expanded service suite, and 10-year acquisition tra...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.