Vivid Seats (SEAT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $60.72M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 104.51K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.17
• Revenue Growth: -16.83%
• EPS Growth: -485.31%
• Country: US
• Employees: 768
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Internet Content & Information
• EPS (TTM): -37.14
• Shares Outstanding: 10,765,756
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 107,197
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 104,514
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): -0.61
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.09
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.56
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: -0.68
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: -0.07
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -0.10
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.24
• 1Y Price Target: $8.78
• Price Target Upside: 55.67% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): -4.43
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $503.99M

• Rating: 44 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.50 ▼(-2.48% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/21/26

SEAT’s score is held down primarily by deteriorated financial performance (large TTM losses, negative equity, and negative free cash flow) and a bearish technical setup (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). The latest earnings call provides some offset via reaffirmed 2026 guidance, sizable cost savings, and improving app metrics, but valuation support is limited given losses and no dividend.

Positive Factors

High gross margins

High gross margins (low-70s) indicate robust unit economics for each ticket transaction. Durable per-order profitability gives the company room to cover customer acquisition and fixed costs, enabling margin recovery and sustainable profitability as volumes normalize.

Achieved $60M annualized cost savings

Realizing $60M of annualized savings materially lowers the operating breakeven and reduces cash burn. With full benefit expected in Q1 2026, this structural cost base improvement increases the chance that modest volume recovery will translate into sustained adjusted EBITDA and cash generation.

Growing app traction and AI integrations

App GOV growth (>20% YoY) and a +500bps app share lift show stronger product engagement and repeat behavior. Coupled with AI integrations, this creates a durable, lower-cost channel for discovery and retention, supporting long-term customer LTV and competitive differentiation.

Negative Factors

Negative equity & weakened balance sheet

Negative equity (~-$85M) signals a materially weakened balance sheet and reduced financial flexibility. Even with lower reported current debt, persistent losses threaten the company's ability to absorb shocks, invest in growth, or weather prolonged volume weakness without external capital.

Negative operating and free cash flow

Operating cash flow (~-$92M) and free cash flow (~-$114M) show the business is consuming cash rather than funding itself. This elevates reliance on external financing, constrains reinvestment capacity, and creates execution risk if cost and EBITDA targets are not sustained to restore self-funded operations.

Steep GOV and revenue declines

A ~42% YoY collapse in Q4 GOV and sharp revenue declines reflect durable demand and content timing challenges, amplified by the loss of a large private-label customer. Sustained volume loss undermines network effects and makes returning to scale and margin leverage materially more difficult.

Vivid Seats Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vivid Seats Inc. operates as an online secondary marketplace for tickets in the United States and Canada. The company operates in two segments, Marketplace and Resale. The Marketplace segment acts as an intermediary between event ticket buyers and sellers; processes ticket sales on its website and mobile applications through its distribution partners; and sells tickets for live sports, concerts, and theater shows, and other live events. This segment offers Skybox, a proprietary enterprise resource planning tool that helps ticket sellers manage ticket inventories, adjust pricing, and fulfill orders across multiple ticket resale marketplaces. The Resale segment acquires tickets to resell on secondary ticket marketplaces; and provides internal research and development support for Skybox and to deliver seller software and tools. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Vivid Seats primarily makes money by facilitating ticket transactions on its marketplace and earning economics tied to each order it processes. Key revenue streams include: (1) Marketplace fees on ticket orders: the company typically collects service fees from buyers and/or fees from sellers for enabling the transaction, payment processing, and platform access; these fees are generally assessed as a percentage of the ticket value (and/or as fixed per-order components) and scale with gross transaction volume. (2) Spread/commission economics on ticket inventory: to the extent Vivid Seats is involved in sourcing, pricing, or enabling professional sellers to list inventory, it earns commissions or other per-transaction economics when tickets sell. (3) Ancillary revenue tied to fulfillment and order processing: the platform can generate additional revenue associated with order handling, delivery/transfer methods (e.g., electronic transfer), and other transaction-related charges where applicable. (4) Advertising/marketing and partner-driven traffic monetization: Vivid Seats uses partnerships and performance marketing relationships (e.g., affiliates, distribution partners, and other demand channels) to drive traffic; while partner arrangements vary, they can influence net revenue through revenue share, referral fees, or customer acquisition economics embedded in transaction margins. The company’s earnings are therefore driven mainly by event demand, ticket prices and volumes, take rate (fees as a share of transaction value), repeat customer activity, and the efficiency of customer acquisition and traffic partnerships.

Vivid Seats Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are meaningfully weakened: TTM revenue declined (~11%), profitability swung to a large loss (about -24% net margin), equity turned negative (about -$85M), and cash flow flipped negative (operating cash flow about -$92M; free cash flow about -$114M). Strong low-70% gross margins are a positive, but the current loss-making and cash-consuming profile dominates.

Income Statement

Profitability deteriorated sharply in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months): revenue fell to $571M (down ~11%), and the company swung from modest profitability in 2024 (about 1% net margin) to a large loss in TTM (about -24% net margin) with deeply negative operating results. A key positive is that gross margin remains strong (low-70%s), suggesting the core unit economics are still attractive, but the scale of operating losses and the abrupt reversal from 2023–2024 profitability meaningfully weakens the earnings profile.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet weakened materially by TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with equity turning negative (about -$85M) after being positive in 2023–2024, reflecting the impact of large recent losses. Reported debt is low in TTM (~$20M) versus much higher levels in prior years (roughly $285M–$460M), which helps reduce financial leverage risk, but negative equity reduces balance-sheet flexibility and makes the capital structure less resilient if losses persist.

Cash Flow

Cash generation turned negative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with operating cash flow around -$92M and free cash flow around -$114M, a sharp decline from positive free cash flow in 2023–2024. While free cash flow metrics look distorted by the large net loss (free cash flow was less negative than net income), the practical takeaway is that the business is currently consuming cash rather than funding itself internally, increasing reliance on external financing or a profitability rebound.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	570.78M	775.59M	712.88M	600.27M	443.04M
Gross Profit	347.95M	573.73M	530.70M	459.77M	352.42M
EBITDA	9.11M	91.83M	102.44M	91.95M	41.68M
Net Income	-429.30M	9.43M	74.54M	28.66M	-16.12M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	636.87M	1.64B	1.55B	1.15B	1.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	102.70M	243.48M	125.48M	251.54M	489.53M
Total Debt	20.38M	407.64M	284.78M	282.56M	460.13M
Total Liabilities	722.00M	1.02B	963.34M	671.27M	983.46M
Stockholders Equity	-85.13M	261.11M	105.02M	-382.70M	-860.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-93.76M	49.70M	134.54M	-1.03M	166.14M
Operating Cash Flow	-91.60M	53.92M	147.32M	14.38M	175.79M
Investing Cash Flow	-20.17M	-26.74M	-225.64M	-15.41M	-9.35M
Financing Cash Flow	-29.37M	86.08M	-43.43M	-236.48M	38.03M

Vivid Seats Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 5.64
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SEAT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.14, below the 50-day MA of 6.59, and below the 200-day MA of 15.64, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SEAT.

Vivid Seats Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EVER	74 Outperform	$552.70M	9.83	54.21%	―	57.83%	293.63%
TRVG	64 Neutral	$1.35B	15.50	5.63%	―	17.38%	―
FVRR	64 Neutral	$368.49M	34.17	5.27%	―	12.68%	133.00%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
SEAT	44 Neutral	$60.72M	-0.03	-51.54%	―	-16.83%	-485.31%
ILLR	39 Underperform	$29.59M	-1.26	51.05%	―	―	―

Vivid Seats Corporate Events

Vivid Seats Faces Steep Revenue Declines Amid Event Weakness

On March 6, 2026, Vivid Seats’ board determined that directors Todd Boehly, Jane DeFlorio, Craig Dixon, Julie Masino, and Adam Stewart qualify as independent, restoring the company’s compliance with Nasdaq’s requirement that a majority of board members be independent after the December 19, 2025 resignation of director Martin Taylor. The timely cure of this governance issue removes a potential overhang on the stock and signals continued adherence to exchange listing standards, which is important for investor confidence and market access.

On March 12, 2026, Vivid Seats reported that fourth-quarter 2025 marketplace gross order value fell 42% year over year to $580.6 million, with revenue down 37% to $126.8 million and adjusted EBITDA dropping to $0.8 million, while net loss widened sharply to $428.7 million. For full-year 2025, marketplace gross order value declined 31% to $2.7 billion, revenue fell 26% to $570.8 million, adjusted EBITDA slid to $41.8 million, and the company swung to a $721.5 million net loss from prior-year profitability, underscoring significant pressure on transaction volumes and profitability despite management’s emphasis on efficiency initiatives and an enhanced app value proposition.

Management highlighted ongoing cost reduction efforts and efficiency programs as key levers to improve performance and noted that event cancellations continued to weigh on gross order value in both 2024 and 2025. While executives pointed to early-2026 trends as evidence that strategic investments in technology and product are gaining traction, the magnitude of the declines in orders, gross order value, and earnings suggests a challenging operating environment and intensifying competitive and demand headwinds for the live events ticketing marketplace.

The most recent analyst rating on (SEAT) stock is a Sell with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vivid Seats stock, see the SEAT Stock Forecast page.

Vivid Seats Appoints Joseph Thomas as New CFO

On January 14, 2026, Vivid Seats Inc.’s board appointed Joseph Thomas as chief financial officer, with his employment commencing on January 19, 2026, succeeding interim CFO Edward Pickus, who continues as chief accounting officer. Thomas, 41, brings experience as CFO of Reliable Parts, a distributor and e-commerce retailer of appliance parts and accessories from August 2023 to January 2026, and a background in private equity and M&A, positioning him to support Vivid Seats’ financial strategy and execution. Under a January 14, 2026 employment agreement, he will receive a $350,000 annual base salary, a target bonus equal to 50% of salary, ongoing equity awards starting in 2027, standard benefits, and a one-time grant of 152,905 restricted stock units vesting quarterly through December 11, 2027, aligning his long-term incentives with company performance while affirming there are no related-party or conflict-of-interest concerns in his appointment.

The most recent analyst rating on (SEAT) stock is a Hold with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vivid Seats stock, see the SEAT Stock Forecast page.

Vivid Seats Faces Nasdaq Board Independence Compliance Challenge

On December 19, 2025, Martin Taylor resigned from the Board of Directors of Vivid Seats Inc., effective immediately, with the company stating that his departure was not due to any disagreement over its operations, policies or practices. Following his resignation, Vivid Seats notified Nasdaq on December 22, 2025, that it no longer met the requirement for a majority-independent board under Nasdaq Listing Rule 5605(b)(1), and the company said it expects to regain compliance within the applicable cure period, a development that places short-term pressure on its governance structure but is not expected to threaten its listing if remedied in time.

The most recent analyst rating on (SEAT) stock is a Hold with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vivid Seats stock, see the SEAT Stock Forecast page.