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VEF AB (SE:VEFAB)
:VEFAB
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VEF AB
(VEFAB)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
kr2.00
▼(-7.41% Downside)
Action:UpgradedDate:01/26/26
The score is primarily supported by a solid balance sheet profile and constructive earnings-call guidance around NAV growth and portfolio momentum. It is held back by highly volatile financial results and inconsistent cash flow, plus weak technical momentum and limited valuation clarity due to a negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
VEF’s balance sheet is structurally strong with historically low leverage and substantial equity relative to assets, reducing insolvency risk and giving management durable financial flexibility to fund exits, support portfolio companies, and execute deleveraging over the medium term.
Sustained NAV appreciation
Meaningful NAV growth in 2025 reflects portfolio value realization and underlying asset appreciation. Persistent NAV expansion supports long-term shareholder value creation, improves optionality for exits or buybacks, and underpins strategic capital allocation across cycles.
High-growth portfolio drivers
Core holdings exhibiting multi-year revenue expansion provide durable upside to NAV and cash realization potential. High organic growth at key names increases the probability of accretive exits or revaluations, supporting medium-term portfolio compounding and value creation.
Negative Factors
Volatile earnings and revenue collapse
Sharp year-to-year swings in revenue and net income show the firm’s earnings are highly cyclical and sensitive to transaction timing and valuations. This volatility reduces predictability of returns, complicates capital allocation decisions, and weakens the reliability of margins for forecasting.
Liquidity and debt timing risk
Negative net cash and material bond maturities create persistent near‑term liquidity pressure, forcing prioritization of deleveraging over opportunistic investments. This constraint can delay strategic exits, limit buybacks, and amplify risk if exit timing or market conditions deteriorate.
Valuation transparency gaps
A sizable portion of assets marked to models rather than transaction evidence weakens NAV confidence until more realized transactions occur. Ongoing mark‑to‑model exposure raises execution risk for monetization and can sustain a persistent discount to NAV, limiting capital markets options.
VEF AB (VEFAB) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)
Market Cap
kr2.19B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.15M
Price to Earnings (P/E)2.9
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountrySE
Employees3
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding1,041,865,700
10 Day Avg. Volume959,721
30 Day Avg. Volume1,147,743
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.57
Price to Sales (P/S)626.42
P/FCF Ratio9.55
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)kr21.12M
VEF AB Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionVEF AB (Publ) is a venture capital firm specializing in early venture, emerging growth and growth capital investments. The firm primarily invests in modern financial services and fintech sector. The financial services sector includes payments providers, Credit, mobile money and all forms of financial marketplaces. It typically invests in the emerging and frontier markets. It prefers to take a minority stakes and board representation. VEF AB (Publ) was founded in 2015 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden with additional office in Hamilton, Bermuda.
How the Company Makes Moneynull
VEF AB Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 21, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 15, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive operational and valuation story: NAV and per-share NAV grew strongly in 2025, Creditas delivered a transformational funding round and operational progress, Juspay continued fast growth, and management realized meaningful exits and NAV-to-cash conversions. However, material near-term balance-sheet constraints (negative net cash, ~$26.1M bonds outstanding due 2026), a paused buyback program, a persistent ~50% share price discount to NAV, and a portion of the portfolio still mark-to-model temper the outlook. Management’s plan to prioritize deleveraging and then redeploy capital, combined with a healthy pipeline and transaction-backed valuations, supports a cautiously optimistic view.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
NAV Growth (Dollar Terms)
Net asset value rose 6.9% in Q4 2025 and 22.9% for the full year (dollar terms), reaching a reported NAV of $434 million.
Per-Share NAV and Buybacks Impact
On a per-share basis NAV increased ~26% year-on-year after factoring in buybacks executed during the year.
Creditas: Major Value Driver and Fundraise
Creditas led the quarter's performance — closed a $108 million Series G round in December that converted Creditas from mark-to-model to a latest-transaction valuation and produced a ~$33 million uplift to VEF's NAV; Creditas achieved ~20% year-on-year loan growth in Q4 and is driving revenue growth, improved efficiency (AI tools) and franchise enhancements (Brazil bank license approved, senior hire Ricardo Forcano). VEF's stake remained roughly ~9% after convertible note conversions and structuring.
Portfolio Valuation Mix and Positive Transaction Coverage
69% of the portfolio was valued at latest transaction prices and 31% at mark-to-model, with over 90% of mark-to-model valuations reflecting multiples further down the P&L (below revenue multiples), implying significant transaction-backed uplift across the portfolio.
Realized Exits and Cash Generation
VEF realized three exits in the prior 12 months (including a notable Juspay secondary/exit) and converted approximately $37 million of appreciating NAV to cash (gross proceeds from Juspay ~ $37 million), contributing to an $81 million positive NAV evolution for the year.
Juspay Performance Outlook
Juspay grew ~40% top-line in calendar 2025 and management/VEF expect similar momentum in 2026 (guidance ~40–50% top-line growth), supporting recurring portfolio value creation.
Improved Portfolio Growth Profile
Management reports the underlying portfolio is growing on a self-sustaining basis at ~25–30% year-on-year, with top names (Creditas, Konfio, Juspay) returning to healthy growth and compounding potential over the medium term.
Balance Sheet Actions Taken
During 2025 VEF paid down roughly half of its bonds, completed share buybacks earlier in the year, and ended Q4 with $15.9 million of cash and liquid assets while outlining a plan to continue strengthening capital allocation and pursue debt reduction (aiming for net-zero debt by year-end in management's plan).
Negative Updates
Deep Discount to NAV and Weak Share Price
VEF shares trade at an approximately 50% discount to NAV; share price was flat year-on-year and only up ~3.3% in Q4 — signaling persistent market skepticism despite NAV strength.
Negative Net Cash Position and Outstanding Bonds
VEF reported $15.9 million of cash at the end of Q4 but still has ~$26.1 million of bonds outstanding (bonds due year-end 2026), leaving the company in a negative net cash position and creating a material near-term liquidity consideration.
Buyback Pause and Capital allocation Uncertainty
Management paused buybacks in Q4 to preserve liquidity and focus on strengthening the balance sheet; near-term capital allocation (buybacks vs. debt paydown vs. new investments) remains undecided and contingent on future exits/cash inflows.
Portion of Portfolio Still Mark-to-Model / Market Pullback
About 31% of the portfolio remains valued on a mark-to-model basis and experienced only slight positive portfolio growth partly offset by a market pullback—introducing valuation uncertainty until more transaction evidence is available.
Regulatory/Timing Uncertainty (Konfio Bank License)
Konfio shows ~20% loan/top-line growth and is cash flow positive, but timing for its banking license remains uncertain—management expects approval but cautions regulators and timing are unpredictable.
Exit Execution Risk
Management reiterated exits are hard and not guaranteed; while three exits were realized in the last 12 months, future exits (which underpin cash inflows and capital flexibility) remain uncertain in timing and magnitude.
Company Guidance
The management guided that VEF’s recovery should continue into 2026, citing a dollar NAV that rose 6.9% in Q4 and ~22.9% for 2025 to $434m (SEK +4.6% Q4, +2.8% FY), with an $81m positive NAV evolution and a 26% y/y per‑share increase after buybacks; 69% of the portfolio is marked to latest transactions (31% mark‑to‑model, >90% of those on P&L multiples). Key portfolio metrics driving guidance include Creditas’ $108m Series G (a $33m NAV uplift), roughly 9% ownership, ~20% y/y loan growth in Q4 and improving revenue/efficiency trends; Juspay grew ~40% top line in 2025 and is expected to grow ~40–50% in 2026; Konfio is growing ~20% y/y with upside to 30%+. They converted $37m of NAV to cash (net +$18m cash impact during the year), ended Q4 with $15.9m cash/liquids, paid down ~half their bonds and still have $26.1m bonds outstanding (due year‑end 2026) with a stated aim to be debt‑free by year‑end, while balancing exits, buybacks and selective new investments to narrow the ~50% discount to NAV.VEF AB Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Balance sheet strength is a clear positive (low leverage historically and debt dropping to zero in 2025; substantial equity vs. assets). However, earnings and revenue are highly volatile (profit/loss swings and a ~99% revenue collapse in 2025) and operating cash flow has been inconsistent across multiple years, limiting predictability.Income Statement
Earnings power is highly volatile: profitability swung from strong profits in 2023 (net income 60.1m) to a large loss in 2024 (-89.9m), then back to a strong profit in 2025 (85.4m). Revenue is extremely unstable and collapsed in 2025 (down 99.248% vs. prior year), which limits visibility and makes reported margins less reliable for trend analysis. Overall, the income statement shows the ability to generate sizable profits, but with sharp year-to-year reversals and weak revenue consistency.55
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet looks solid and conservatively financed. Debt is low-to-moderate historically (debt-to-equity ~0.09–0.12 in 2022–2024) and drops to zero in 2025, while equity remains substantial (433.8m in 2025) against 463.7m of assets. Returns on equity are strong in profitable years (about 19.7% in 2025, 13.6% in 2023) but can turn sharply negative in down years (2024), highlighting that asset values/earnings can be cyclical even with low leverage.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is inconsistent. Operating cash flow was positive in 2023 (24.1m) and 2025 (25.8m) but negative in 2021, 2022, and 2024, indicating uneven cash conversion through the cycle. In 2025, operating cash flow was roughly in line with reported profit (coverage ~0.98), which is supportive, but the multi-year pattern of cash outflows and the small decline in free cash flow in 2025 (-2.96%) temper the outlook.50
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 52.38M | 394.00K | -290.00K | 74.93M | 431.00K | -33.64M |
| Gross Profit | 52.38M | 394.00K | -2.50M | 72.44M | -1.73M | -36.30M |
| EBITDA | -50.47M | 89.44M | -81.70M | 68.22M | -374.22M | 275.65M |
| Net Income | -58.68M | 85.44M | -89.86M | 60.07M | -377.36M | 275.51M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 404.08M | 463.69M | 392.66M | 482.35M | 430.09M | 762.85M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 14.59M | 10.51M | 8.68M | 17.72M | 8.61M | 11.13M |
| Total Debt | 24.74M | 0.00 | 35.81M | 38.94M | 47.03M | 63.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 29.52M | 29.87M | 39.70M | 40.12M | 48.26M | 1.12M |
| Stockholders Equity | 374.56M | 433.82M | 352.96M | 442.23M | 381.83M | 761.73M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 26.62M | 25.83M | -4.28M | 24.06M | -47.97M | -90.13M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 26.62M | 25.83M | -4.28M | 24.06M | -47.97M | -90.13M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Financing Cash Flow | -24.52M | -24.98M | -3.99M | -17.73M | 48.28M | 97.77M |
VEF AB Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | kr688.75M | 18.21 | ― | ― | 34.18% | 242.91% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
60 Neutral | kr2.19B | 2.89 | ― | ― | ― | ― | |
49 Neutral | kr393.20M | -15.68 | ― | 8.78% | ― | ― | |
46 Neutral | kr306.83M | -6.03 | ― | ― | ― | ― |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
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VEF AB Corporate Events
VEF’s Top Holding Creditas Posts Record Q4 Growth Amid AI-Driven Efficiency Push
Mar 2, 2026
Creditas, the largest holding in VEF’s portfolio, reported record fourth-quarter 2025 performance with loan origination hitting R$1.1bn and the credit portfolio expanding to R$7.1bn despite Brazil’s high SELIC rate. Revenues climbed to an all-time high of R$582.7mn and gross profit increased, although an operating loss of R$80.9mn persisted as the company continued to prioritize building profitable loan cohorts and integrating the Andbank acquisition.
Management highlighted strong operational leverage, with higher loan growth achieved alongside lower customer acquisition costs, reflecting improved marketing efficiency. Creditas is accelerating investment in automation and AI across customer experience, collections and operations to support its cross-sell strategy, and it signalled a new growth phase targeting annual expansion above 25% while maintaining portfolio profitability, underpinning VEF’s exposure to Brazil’s digital credit market.
The most recent analyst rating on (SE:VEFAB) stock is a Hold with a SEK2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on VEF AB stock, see the SE:VEFAB Stock Forecast page.
VEF boosts balance sheet with high-return partial exit from Juspay
Jan 23, 2026
VEF AB has realised USD 14.6 million through an additional partial exit from Indian payments technology firm Juspay, conducted as part of a USD 50 million Series D follow-on round led by WestBridge Capital at a USD 1.2 billion valuation. The sale, executed at a 16% premium to VEF’s fourth-quarter 2025 valuation of Juspay, will lift VEF’s net asset value by 2.5%, delivers a 38% IRR and 6.6x cash-on-cash return, and further strengthens the company’s balance sheet while it retains a meaningful 6.3% stake in one of its top-performing holdings, underlining its ability to generate value-accretive exits and redeploy capital into new fintech opportunities across emerging markets.
The most recent analyst rating on (SE:VEFAB) stock is a Hold with a SEK2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on VEF AB stock, see the SE:VEFAB Stock Forecast page.
VEF AB Delivers Strong 2025 as Creditas Drives NAV and Earnings Rebound
Jan 21, 2026
VEF AB reported strong full-year 2025 results, with net asset value (NAV) rising 23% in USD terms to USD 433.8 million and NAV per share up 26%, supported by a 7% NAV increase in the fourth quarter. The main driver was the performance of core holding Creditas, which completed a USD 108 million Series G funding round at a USD 3.3 billion valuation, closed the acquisition of Andbank Brazil, and posted record quarterly revenues alongside solid loan growth. VEF’s net result swung sharply into positive territory, delivering USD 85.4 million for 2025 versus a loss in 2024, while maintaining a stable cash position and reporting no significant post-period events, underscoring renewed portfolio momentum and improved earnings power for shareholders.
The most recent analyst rating on (SE:VEFAB) stock is a Hold with a SEK2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on VEF AB stock, see the SE:VEFAB Stock Forecast page.
VEF Sets Date for Fourth-Quarter 2025 Results and Webcast
Jan 14, 2026
VEF AB has announced that it will publish its report for the fourth quarter of 2025 on Wednesday, January 21, 2026, and will host a webcast the same day where Managing Director Dave Nangle will discuss the results and recent developments. The scheduled presentation underlines the company’s efforts to maintain transparency with investors and other stakeholders, providing an opportunity for market participants to gain insights into VEF’s portfolio performance and strategic direction in the fintech-focused emerging markets segment.
The most recent analyst rating on (SE:VEFAB) stock is a Hold with a SEK2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on VEF AB stock, see the SE:VEFAB Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.