TradeDoubler AB (TRAD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr412.24M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 78.59K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 403.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.40
• Revenue Growth: 6.67%
• EPS Growth: -7.93%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 360
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Advertising Agencies
• EPS (TTM): -0.29
• Shares Outstanding: 61,236,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 56,063
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 78,589
• PEG Ratio: -3.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.04
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.18
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.26
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.81
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr2.36B

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: kr7.00 ▲(2.64% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance—especially the strong 2025 cash flow rebound and manageable leverage—but is capped by weak technicals (trading below key moving averages with low RSI) and a highly unattractive valuation due to the extremely elevated P/E.

Positive Factors

Strong free cash flow rebound (2025)

A material increase in operating and free cash flow provides durable funding for reinvestment, product development, and debt reduction. Sustained FCF at this scale supports strategic flexibility and reduces reliance on external financing, improving long-term resilience.

Improving balance-sheet leverage

A markedly lower debt-to-equity ratio and substantial equity relative to assets indicate stronger solvency and borrowing capacity. This reduces interest burden risk, enhances ability to fund growth or weather downturns, and underpins sustained strategic initiatives.

Re-accelerating revenue growth momentum

A clear pickup in revenue growth suggests recovering advertiser spend and better platform traction. Durable top-line momentum supports operating leverage potential over time, improves bargaining power with partners, and underwrites investments in technology and services.

Negative Factors

Inconsistent profitability

Volatile net income reduces predictability of returns and complicates capital allocation decisions. Intermittent losses constrain management's ability to commit to long-term initiatives, shareholder distributions, and hiring, and signal sensitivity to cycle or execution risks.

Thin operating margins

Persistently thin margins limit the company's ability to absorb higher costs or invest in product improvements without eroding cash generation. In a competitive ad-tech market, weak margin headroom makes long-term profitability and scaling more challenging.

Year-to-year cash-flow variability

Significant year-to-year swings in cash generation complicate forecasting and raise the risk that recent improvements may not persist. This variability can force reactive cost cuts or external funding in weak years, limiting consistent strategic investment.

TradeDoubler AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tradedoubler AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides performance marketing services and technology solutions for publishers and advertisers worldwide. It offers affiliate marketing solutions; white-label partner management platform to manage and run affiliate networks; business intelligence solutions; full service programmatic solutions to identify and connect with customers; and campaign management solutions. The company also provides Metapic, a platform for product recommendations that helps advertisers and digital creatives to enhance through reader engaging content. In addition, it offers tracking solutions, such as global, cookie less, cross device, voucher code, product level, and call tracking, as well as container tag solutions; and integration solutions, including products, vouchers, conversions, and claims APIs. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden. Tradedoubler AB (publ) is a subsidiary of Reworld Media S.A.

How the Company Makes Money

TradeDoubler generates revenue primarily through performance-based marketing services, where it earns commissions based on the sales or leads generated by its affiliate partners. The company operates a robust affiliate network, connecting advertisers with publishers who promote their products and services. Revenue streams include affiliate commissions, setup fees, and subscription models for its marketing technology solutions. Additionally, TradeDoubler may engage in strategic partnerships with online retailers and brands to enhance its service offerings and expand its market reach, contributing to its overall earnings.

TradeDoubler AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Improving top-line momentum and a strong 2025 rebound in operating/free cash flow support the score, and leverage has trended lower versus earlier years. The main offset is inconsistent profitability, including a 2024 loss and only marginal profit in 2025.

Income Statement

Revenue growth improved meaningfully in 2025 (annual) versus 2024 (0.784 vs 0.067), showing a stronger top-line trajectory. However, profitability is the key weak spot: net income was only slightly positive in 2025 after a loss in 2024, and prior-year margins indicate thin operating profitability for the business. Overall: solid growth momentum, but earnings quality and consistency remain mixed.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable: debt-to-equity improved from ~0.70 (2020) to ~0.25 (2024), indicating reduced balance-sheet risk versus earlier years. Equity remains substantial relative to the asset base (2025: equity 378.0M vs assets 1,178.4M), supporting financial flexibility. The main weakness is that returns to shareholders have been volatile (negative in 2024), reflecting inconsistent profitability rather than balance-sheet stress.

Cash Flow

Cash generation strengthened sharply in 2025 (annual), with operating cash flow rising to 122.1M and free cash flow to 120.7M, alongside very strong free-cash-flow growth (22.781). While 2024 showed weak free cash flow and a decline versus 2023, the latest year demonstrates strong cash conversion and improved funding capacity. Key risk is variability year-to-year, but the most recent cash flow profile is clearly better.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.22B	2.11B	1.98B	1.64B	1.42B
Gross Profit	489.44M	445.88M	408.37M	346.08M	277.04M
EBITDA	108.64M	69.60M	42.43M	59.13M	50.54M
Net Income	1.02M	-3.19M	25.28M	24.29M	23.91M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.18B	1.25B	1.15B	1.04B	922.65M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	125.75M	78.42M	70.20M	93.47M	94.01M
Total Debt	135.91M	97.69M	133.87M	130.27M	134.92M
Total Liabilities	800.33M	847.62M	818.92M	729.72M	661.34M
Stockholders Equity	378.04M	398.55M	333.25M	307.71M	261.31M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	120.68M	18.77M	35.98M	27.69M	27.55M
Operating Cash Flow	122.14M	55.89M	74.09M	59.42M	57.15M
Investing Cash Flow	-40.56M	-44.75M	-63.22M	-41.01M	-13.99M
Financing Cash Flow	-23.90M	-5.00M	-33.76M	-26.91M	-41.07M

TradeDoubler AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.82
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:TRAD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.23, below the 50-day MA of 7.14, and below the 200-day MA of 6.97, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:TRAD.

TradeDoubler AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
CTM	60 Neutral	kr181.01M	-1.00	-19.82%	―	-25.10%	82.01%
TRAD	56 Neutral	kr412.24M	403.55	4.37%	―	6.67%	-7.93%
RAKE	47 Neutral	kr72.36M	-0.12	―	―	-47.47%	-524.00%
EMB	45 Neutral	kr170.79M	-56.93	-8.02%	―	―	―
SPEONE	45 Neutral	kr69.23M	-2.13	-32.53%	―	-57.04%	-161.67%

TradeDoubler AB Corporate Events

TradeDoubler Posts Higher Underlying Profitability Despite Rising Costs in 2025

TradeDoubler AB reported modest top-line growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, with revenue up 2 percent, or 7 percent on a currency-adjusted basis, and gross profit improving 4 percent while maintaining a stable gross margin. The group continues to invest in product development and carries a solid net cash position, underscoring its capacity to support operations and strategic initiatives despite higher staff costs and acquisition-related adjustments.

Full-year 2025 revenue increased 5 percent, or 8 percent adjusted for currency effects, with gross profit up 8 percent and an improved underlying gross margin, reflecting a healthier core business. Although reported EBITDA declined year on year, adjusted EBITDA rose 17 percent as change-related items weighed on headline figures, indicating underlying operational profitability remains on an upward trajectory for stakeholders monitoring the company’s performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:TRAD) stock is a Hold with a SEK8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TradeDoubler AB stock, see the SE:TRAD Stock Forecast page.

Tradedoubler Clarifies CEO Interview, Stresses Data Was Historical Not Guidance

Tradedoubler has issued a clarification following an interview with CEO Matthias Stadelmeyer published by analyst firm Edison Group, stressing that the statements and figures he cited were not intended as forward-looking information and should not be treated as guidance, forecasts or expectations about future performance. The company emphasised that the numbers referred to in the interview were approximate and reflected historical business trends up to the third quarter of 2025, underlining an effort to prevent misinterpretation among investors and other stakeholders regarding its future outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:TRAD) stock is a Hold with a SEK6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TradeDoubler AB stock, see the SE:TRAD Stock Forecast page.

Tradedoubler Updates Share Capital After C-Share Issue and Buyback

Tradedoubler AB has updated its share capital structure following a recent issue and repurchase of C-shares, increasing the total number of shares and votes to 65,445,838 as of 30 December 2025. The company now has 61,236,598 ordinary shares and 4,209,240 C-shares, and holds 5,000,000 of its own shares, comprising 790,760 ordinary shares and all 4,209,240 C-shares, a move that may reflect ongoing capital management or incentive programmes and slightly alters the free float and voting dynamics for existing shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:TRAD) stock is a Hold with a SEK6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TradeDoubler AB stock, see the SE:TRAD Stock Forecast page.

Tradedoubler AB Exercises Share Issuance and Repurchase for 2025 Program

Tradedoubler AB’s board of directors has exercised its authorization to issue and repurchase class C-shares to fulfill commitments under the company’s 2025 share program. The issuance and repurchase involve 4,209,240 class C shares, which will be converted to ordinary shares for the share program, representing approximately 7.6% of the total shares and votes in the company. This strategic move is aimed at securing the company’s obligations and maintaining its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:TRAD) stock is a Hold with a SEK6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TradeDoubler AB stock, see the SE:TRAD Stock Forecast page.