Systemair AB (SYSR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr14.62B
• Dividend Yield: 1.55%
• Average Volume (3M): 92.30K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 34.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.85
• Revenue Growth: 2.11%
• EPS Growth: 13.90%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 6,638
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): 0.63
• Shares Outstanding: 208,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 124,150
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 92,295
• PEG Ratio: 4.58
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.97
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.39
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: kr100.00
• Price Target Upside: 18.48% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.76
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr12.27B

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: kr79.00 ▼(-6.40% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/08/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/08/26

The score is primarily supported by a strong, low-leverage balance sheet and steady profitability, but is held back by weak free cash flow/cash conversion. Technicals are also unfavorable with the stock trading below key moving averages and negative momentum, and valuation looks demanding given the high P/E with only a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Strength

Systemair's very low debt-to-equity (~0.10) and healthy equity base provide durable financial flexibility. That conservatism reduces refinancing and solvency risk across cycles, enabling sustained investment in product development, targeted capex or opportunistic M&A without stressing the balance sheet.

Margin Sustainability

Consistently mid-30s gross margins and mid-single-digit operating margins indicate enduring manufacturing scale and pricing power. Sustained margins support internal reinvestment and measured shareholder returns, helping the business absorb cyclical top-line swings while maintaining operating profitability.

Durable Business Model & Product Mix

A broad portfolio of air handling units, fans and distribution components sold into new-build projects, retrofits and aftermarket creates diversified, recurring and project revenue. Structural drivers—energy efficiency requirements and building renovations—support steady medium-term demand for ventilation upgrades.

Negative Factors

Weak Cash Conversion & Free Cash Flow

Operating cash covers only about half of reported net income and free cash flow is very small (~0.10B, ~0.08x net income). Poor cash conversion constrains capital allocation flexibility, limiting the company's ability to fund capex, dividends or acquisitions without tapping reserves or increasing leverage.

Top-line Weakness and EPS Decline

Modest revenue contraction and near-term EPS decline signal demand softness or pricing pressure. Prolonged top-line weakness can erode operating leverage, reduce reinvestment capacity, and force cost or price responses that undermine strategic initiatives and competitive positioning over several quarters.

Returns Below Prior Peak

While margins have stabilized, they remain below 2023 peaks and ROE has normalized, suggesting sensitivity to cyclical demand or competitive pressures. Failure to regain prior peak profitability could cap long-term return on capital and limit upside from operating improvements.

Systemair AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Systemair AB (publ), a ventilation company, engages in the manufacture and sale of ventilation products in Europe, the United States, the Middle East, Asia, Australia, Africa, and internationally. The company offers heating products, including convectors, controls, ceiling fans, air curtains, radiant and fan heaters; fans and accessories, such as circular and rectangular inline duct, roof, axial, explosion proof, domestic, smoke extract, and other fans, as well as electrical accessories for ventilation and fans for aggressive media; and residential systems comprising residential fans, counter flow and rotary units, vacuum systems, heat pumps, vacuum pumps, ducts, cooker hoods, filters, valves and grilles, and accessories for residential systems. It also provides fire safety products that include fire and smoke control dampers; air distribution products consisting of grilles, air volume controls, diffusers, and external louvers; air handling units, including compact and modular AHUs, roof ventilation units, and compact and modular AHU accessories; and air conditioning systems, such as hydronic and DX systems. The company's products are used in homes, offices, factories, hospitals, swimming pools, multi-storey car parks, and airports, as well as data centers, schools and public buildings, and marine, and oil and gas industries. It sells its products to ventilation contractors and distributors under the Systemair, Frico, Fantech, and Menerga brand names. Systemair AB (publ) was incorporated in 1972 and is headquartered in Skinnskatteberg, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Systemair AB generates revenue primarily through the sale of its extensive range of ventilation products and systems. The company's revenue model focuses on direct sales to various sectors, including residential, commercial, and industrial markets. Systemair leverages its global manufacturing and distribution network to reach customers worldwide, ensuring timely delivery and localized support. Key revenue streams include the sale of fans, air handling units, and air distribution products, which are essential components in HVAC systems. Additionally, Systemair benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations with construction companies and HVAC contractors, which enhance its market presence and drive sales. The company's commitment to innovation and energy-efficient solutions also positions it advantageously in regions with stringent environmental regulations, further supporting its financial performance.

Systemair AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability remains solid (TTM gross margin ~36.8%, operating margin ~8.9%, net margin ~5.7%) and the balance sheet is conservatively levered (debt-to-equity ~0.10; ROE ~11.9%). However, revenue is slightly down (~-1.5%) and cash flow quality is a key weakness: free cash flow is very low (~0.10B) and cash conversion vs earnings is weak (OCF/NI ~0.50).

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is essentially flat to slightly down (about -1.5%), but profitability remains solid: gross margin ~36.8%, operating margin ~8.9%, and net margin ~5.7%. Compared with prior annual periods, margins have recovered from the 2024 dip, though they remain below the 2023 peak (higher operating and net margins then). Overall: steady earnings power with modest recent top-line softness.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is conservative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with low debt relative to equity (debt-to-equity ~0.10) and a healthy equity base. Returns on equity are steady around ~11.9% in both TTM and the latest annual report, indicating consistent profitability without heavy balance-sheet risk. The main watch item is that returns are well below the 2023 high, suggesting peak-cycle profitability has normalized.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is positive in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (~1.35B), but cash conversion is weak versus earnings (operating cash flow to net income is ~0.50). Free cash flow is particularly pressured: only ~0.10B in TTM, down sharply versus the prior annual period where free cash flow was zero and well below 2024’s strong ~0.92B. Free cash flow is also low relative to net income (~0.08), indicating working capital and/or investment needs are absorbing cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Apr 2024	Apr 2023	Apr 2022	Apr 2021	Apr 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	12.23B	12.30B	12.26B	12.06B	9.63B	8.52B
Gross Profit	4.50B	4.46B	4.21B	4.11B	3.32B	2.96B
EBITDA	1.31B	1.48B	1.38B	1.79B	1.14B	945.80M
Net Income	691.80M	680.70M	645.60M	1.04B	543.90M	406.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.37B	9.37B	9.79B	9.63B	8.47B	6.96B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	459.70M	426.00M	419.30M	343.80M	339.30M	321.70M
Total Debt	1.28B	1.29B	1.46B	1.84B	2.38B	1.79B
Total Liabilities	3.63B	3.61B	4.14B	4.36B	4.62B	3.63B
Stockholders Equity	5.73B	5.76B	5.65B	5.27B	3.82B	3.31B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	104.50M	0.00	922.00M	225.20M	-107.50M	551.50M
Operating Cash Flow	1.35B	1.18B	1.33B	587.70M	235.20M	993.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-663.60M	-473.70M	-389.70M	318.60M	-515.90M	-448.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-542.70M	-614.20M	-898.10M	-959.50M	274.90M	-557.20M

Systemair AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 84.40
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:SYSR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 84.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 79.39, above the 50-day MA of 83.84, and below the 200-day MA of 84.50, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.64 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.40 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.03 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:SYSR.

Systemair AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
INSTAL	64 Neutral	kr8.59B	20.20	11.66%	2.67%	-3.68%	-48.79%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
ALIG	61 Neutral	kr12.01B	25.44	9.59%	2.09%	-1.74%	26.36%
SYSR	58 Neutral	kr14.62B	34.37	11.96%	1.55%	2.11%	13.90%
LIAB	57 Neutral	kr11.80B	21.04	7.36%	2.61%	-1.96%	-19.69%
BRAV	57 Neutral	kr20.95B	14.91	―	4.22%	-4.21%	10.63%
NIBE.B	45 Neutral	kr68.51B	31.54	9.65%	0.86%	-0.69%	269.86%

Systemair AB Corporate Events

Systemair Maintains Margin Strength Despite Currency-Driven Sales Decline

Systemair reported a weaker third quarter for 2025/26, with net sales down 5.9 percent to SEK 2,862 million, mainly due to negative currency effects, while organic growth was slightly positive at 1.0 percent. Despite lower sales, operating profit improved to SEK 224 million and the operating margin rose to 7.8 percent, earnings per share edged up, and operating cash flow nearly doubled, indicating resilient profitability and strong cash generation.

Over the first nine months, net sales fell 0.8 percent to SEK 9,227 million as currency headwinds overshadowed 5.0 percent organic growth, but adjusted operating profit and margins continued to strengthen. Profit after tax and earnings per share increased modestly versus the prior year, and robust cash flow from operations of SEK 965 million underscores solid underlying operations and balance sheet flexibility for the ventilation specialist.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:SYSR) stock is a Hold with a SEK93.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Systemair AB stock, see the SE:SYSR Stock Forecast page.

Systemair Sets March 5 Date for Q3 2025/26 Report and Investor Call

Systemair AB, a global provider of ventilation and indoor climate solutions, sells energy‑efficient systems under brands such as Systemair, Frico, Fantech and Menerga. With operations spanning 51 countries and SEK 12.3 billion in annual sales, the Nasdaq Stockholm‑listed group has consistently delivered operating profits and steady long‑term growth.

The company announced that it will release its interim Q3 2025/26 report on March 5, 2026 at 07:00 CET, followed by a press and analyst webcast and teleconference at 09:00 CET hosted by CEO Robert Larsson and CFO Anders Ulff. The event, open to questions from participants, underscores Systemair’s ongoing commitment to financial transparency and investor engagement, with presentation materials and a replay to be made available on its website after the call.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:SYSR) stock is a Hold with a SEK93.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Systemair AB stock, see the SE:SYSR Stock Forecast page.

Systemair Reshapes Nomination Committee Ahead of 2026 AGM

Systemair AB has adjusted the composition of its nomination committee after its third-largest shareholder, ebm-papst AB, declined to take its designated seat. The fourth-largest shareholder, Swedbank Robur Fonder, has instead joined the committee, which will now be chaired by Alecta’s Magnus Tell and also include Färna Invest’s Gerald Engström and Swedbank Robur’s Lennart Francke.

The updated nomination committee will prepare proposals for the company’s governance ahead of the annual general meeting scheduled for 27 August 2026 in Skinnskatteberg, Sweden. The move ensures continued representation of major shareholders in Systemair’s nomination process, supporting continuity and stability in its corporate governance amid the company’s sustained growth and broad international footprint.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:SYSR) stock is a Hold with a SEK93.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Systemair AB stock, see the SE:SYSR Stock Forecast page.

Systemair’s New CEO Robert Larsson Takes Helm with Ambitious Growth Target

Systemair has announced that Robert Larsson today formally assumes the role of President and CEO, succeeding Roland Kasper, who led the company since 2015. Larsson, who has spent recent months familiarising himself with the group, emphasised Systemair’s strong global position, focus on high-quality, energy-efficient ventilation solutions, and robust corporate culture, while Chairman Patrik Nolåker highlighted an ambitious objective to double the group’s size within seven years, underscoring expectations that Larsson’s industrial and international experience will drive the next phase of growth alongside a strengthened executive management team.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:SYSR) stock is a Hold with a SEK95.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Systemair AB stock, see the SE:SYSR Stock Forecast page.