Oncopeptides AB (ONCO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr760.19M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.28M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.22
• Revenue Growth: 131.20%
• EPS Growth: 32.28%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 80
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.27
• Shares Outstanding: 258,567,470
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,913,694
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,284,999
• PEG Ratio: 0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 8.20
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: kr3.00 ▼(-38.52% Downside)

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses, cash burn, and leverage) and bearish technicals (below major moving averages with negative MACD). The earnings call provides the main support via strong revenue growth, exceptional gross margin, and improved liquidity from the rights issue, while valuation remains constrained by loss-making status and no dividend.

Positive Factors

Gross margin strength

An effectively 99% gross margin indicates the product has very low direct costs versus price, implying strong scalability: incremental sales largely flow to the operating line. Over months this supports margin expansion as revenue grows and reduces reliance on pricing maneuvers to improve profitability.

Sustained commercial growth

Consecutive quarters of high revenue growth reflect durable commercial traction in key European markets (Italy led, Spain full access). Persistent top-line momentum supports market adoption, reinforces payer/provider acceptance, and underpins longer-term revenue scaling if execution continues.

Improved liquidity from financing

A successful, heavily oversubscribed rights issue materially bolstered cash reserves, demonstrating investor support and providing runway. This durable funding reduces immediate refinancing risk, enables continued commercial investment, and buys time to pursue profitability targets.

Negative Factors

Persistent net losses and cash burn

Ongoing quarters of negative net income and negative operating/free cash flow reveal structural cash burn. Even with revenue growth, sustained losses necessitate frequent external financing or cost cuts; absent durable operating cash generation, this undermines long-term self-sufficiency.

High leverage and deteriorating equity ratio

A balance sheet with elevated liabilities versus equity reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and covenant risk. Over months this constrains strategic options, increases sensitivity to funding markets, and can force dilutive financings or defensive cost measures if cash generation lags.

Partnership and market execution risk

Dependence on external partnerships and regional execution creates structural scaling risk: delayed Japan deals and seasonal weakness in Germany can materially slow international revenue expansion. Such execution gaps lengthen the path to sustainable profitability and broaden reliance on external funding.

Oncopeptides AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Oncopeptides AB (publ), a biotech company, develops pharmaceuticals drugs for the treatment of cancer in the United States, Europe, and internationally. Its lead product candidate is melflufen, an anti-cancer peptide drug conjugate for the treatment of relapsed refractory multiple myeloma in adult patients. Oncopeptides AB (publ) was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Oncopeptides AB generates revenue primarily through the commercialization of its lead product, melflufen, which is sold to healthcare providers and hospitals for treating patients with multiple myeloma. The company's revenue model is based on product sales, which may include direct sales and potential royalties from licensing agreements. Additionally, Oncopeptides may engage in partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies for co-development or distribution, which can also provide milestone payments and royalties. The company may also receive funding through grants and research collaborations aimed at furthering its drug development initiatives.

Oncopeptides AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial statements point to persistent losses and ongoing cash burn (negative net income, negative operating/free cash flow), with elevated leverage. A relatively strong cash position and ability to raise financing are positives but do not fully offset weak profitability and cash generation.

Income Statement

Oncopeptides AB has shown inconsistent revenue trends with significant fluctuations over the years. The company has consistently reported negative net income, indicating ongoing losses. Additionally, the high negative EBIT margin reflects operational inefficiencies or high operating costs relative to revenue.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a high level of liabilities compared to its equity, indicating a high debt-to-equity ratio. However, the company maintains a relatively strong cash position, which could help manage short-term liabilities. The equity ratio has deteriorated over time, suggesting decreasing asset financing through equity.

Cash Flow

Oncopeptides AB has consistently reported negative operating and free cash flows, highlighting cash burn issues. Despite this, the company has managed to secure financing to support operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, emphasizing the challenge in generating cash from its core operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	50.87M	31.65M	35.22M	8.36M	118.30M	0.00
Gross Profit	49.13M	28.98M	36.30M	8.35M	65.17M	-14.40M
EBITDA	-260.65M	-261.81M	-231.62M	-319.62M	-1.40B	-1.58B
Net Income	-267.18M	-284.61M	-249.11M	-337.95M	-1.43B	-1.59B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	136.44M	244.19M	238.38M	385.32M	439.38M	946.76M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	70.15M	178.54M	173.44M	344.51M	364.30M	852.48M
Total Debt	124.23M	141.72M	126.16M	9.54M	14.19M	19.36M
Total Liabilities	203.32M	189.91M	181.60M	91.03M	228.51M	369.86M
Stockholders Equity	-66.88M	54.28M	56.78M	294.29M	210.87M	576.90M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-324.71M	-260.57M	-279.61M	-423.02M	-1.52B	-1.31B
Operating Cash Flow	-324.71M	-260.57M	-279.49M	-420.51M	-1.52B	-1.30B
Investing Cash Flow	496.00K	496.00K	-116.00K	-2.51M	-339.00K	-20.13M
Financing Cash Flow	11.91M	263.81M	106.89M	392.40M	1.03B	1.32B

Oncopeptides AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4.88
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:ONCO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.82, above the 50-day MA of 4.61, and above the 200-day MA of 3.88, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.48 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.77 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.05 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:ONCO.

Oncopeptides AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CANTA	64 Neutral	kr1.36B	10.79	81.19%	―	―	―
XBRANE	53 Neutral	kr220.68M	1.19	-16.90%	―	4.64%	―
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ONCO	49 Neutral	kr760.19M	-2.55	―	―	131.20%	32.28%
ACE	43 Neutral	kr335.57M	-3.08	-79.60%	―	―	31.62%
XSPRAY	42 Neutral	kr1.02B	-4.17	-35.03%	―	―	25.14%
ACTI	41 Neutral	kr109.66M	-1.29	-1291.15%	―	―	28.54%

Oncopeptides AB Corporate Events

Oncopeptides Lifts 2025 Sales but Delays Cash-Flow Break-Even to 2027

Oncopeptides reported that unaudited net sales reached 18.6 million SEK in the fourth quarter of 2025, up 88% year-on-year, while full-year 2025 Pepaxti sales climbed 125% to 71.2 million SEK, driven by a stronger-than-expected launch in Italy but partly offset by weaker uptake in Germany and strike-related headwinds in Spain. The company now anticipates achieving positive cash flow in 2027 instead of late 2026 and is tightening its commercialization strategy in Germany, pursuing a potential licensing deal for Pepaxti in Japan with a sizeable local pharma partner, and exploring additional European opportunities and pipeline partnerships, moves that signal a push to strengthen its financial position and broaden its international footprint despite near-term commercial challenges.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ONCO) stock is a Buy with a SEK5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oncopeptides AB stock, see the SE:ONCO Stock Forecast page.

Oncopeptides Drug Pepaxti Shows Strong Efficacy in High-Risk Multiple Myeloma

Oncopeptides has announced new research demonstrating that its multiple myeloma drug Pepaxti (melflufen) maintains strong anti-myeloma activity in patients with high-risk genetic abnormalities such as del(17p) and TP53 mutations, which are typically associated with more aggressive, treatment-resistant disease. The collaborative study from Finland, Germany and Sweden showed consistent in vitro activity across genetic subgroups, a mechanism of action that does not depend on functional TP53, and post-hoc clinical data from the phase 3 OCEAN trial indicating longer progression‑free survival versus pomalidomide-based therapy in del(17p) patients, bolstering the differentiation of Pepaxti and Oncopeptides’ PDC platform versus conventional alkylators and reinforcing the drug’s role in treating some of the most challenging myeloma cases, with potential to strengthen the company’s positioning among haematology specialists and investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ONCO) stock is a Hold with a SEK5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oncopeptides AB stock, see the SE:ONCO Stock Forecast page.

Oncopeptides AB Establishes Nomination Committee for 2026 AGM

Oncopeptides AB has announced the formation of its Nomination Committee for the 2026 annual general meeting. The committee comprises representatives from the company’s three largest shareholders by voting rights, as well as the Chairman of the Board. This development is significant for Oncopeptides as it ensures shareholder representation in the decision-making process, potentially impacting the company’s strategic direction and governance. The committee’s proposals will be shared in the notice for the annual general meeting and on the company’s website.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ONCO) stock is a Hold with a SEK5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oncopeptides AB stock, see the SE:ONCO Stock Forecast page.

Expert Panel Endorses Oncopeptides’ Pepaxti for Myeloma Treatment

Oncopeptides AB announced that a panel of multiple myeloma experts has endorsed the use of its drug Pepaxti, also known as melflufen, for treating relapsed, refractory multiple myeloma. The expert consensus, published in the Annals of Hematology, emphasizes Pepaxti’s effectiveness for heavily pretreated patients, including the elderly and those with high-risk disease profiles, reinforcing its role as a critical treatment option. This endorsement strengthens Pepaxti’s market positioning and confirms its utility across diverse patient subgroups, aligning with findings from pivotal studies and real-world applications.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ONCO) stock is a Hold with a SEK5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oncopeptides AB stock, see the SE:ONCO Stock Forecast page.

Oncopeptides AB Reports Strong Q3 2025 Growth and Strategic Milestones

Oncopeptides AB reported a significant growth in net sales for Q3 2025, with a 174% increase year over year, driven by its key European markets. The company is progressing towards becoming cash flow positive by the end of 2026 and is in negotiations with potential partners in Japan. The period also saw the oversubscription of a rights issue and the inclusion of their drug Pepaxti in European guidelines, which could enhance their market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ONCO) stock is a Hold with a SEK5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oncopeptides AB stock, see the SE:ONCO Stock Forecast page.

Oncopeptides’ NK Cell Engager Study to be Presented at ASH

Oncopeptides AB announced that a collaborative study on NK cell engagers, part of the Eurostars NKENGAGE project, will be presented at the American Society of Hematology Annual Meeting. The study explores a novel immunotherapeutic approach for multiple myeloma using NK cells, showing promising preclinical results with reduced toxicity compared to T-cell strategies. This recognition at ASH highlights Oncopeptides’ expansion beyond peptide-drug conjugates and its potential to address unmet needs in cancer treatment.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ONCO) stock is a Hold with a SEK5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oncopeptides AB stock, see the SE:ONCO Stock Forecast page.

Oncopeptides Adjusts Share Structure Amid Strategic Incentive Program

Oncopeptides AB announced a change in the number of votes due to the conversion of class C shares to ordinary shares as part of its incentive program. This adjustment reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to align its share structure with its strategic goals, potentially impacting its market positioning and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ONCO) stock is a Hold with a SEK5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oncopeptides AB stock, see the SE:ONCO Stock Forecast page.