Ascelia Pharma AB (ACE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr335.57M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.75M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.50
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 31.62%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 11
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.13
• Shares Outstanding: 126,868,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,883,755
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,753,338
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.51
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 43 Neutral
• Price Target: kr2.50 ▼(-21.14% Downside)

The score is driven primarily by weak financial performance (pre-revenue losses and ongoing cash burn despite low leverage) and bearish technicals (trading below key moving averages with weak momentum). Valuation provides limited support due to the negative P/E and no dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Low Leverage / Balance Sheet Strength

Very low debt reduces solvency and interest burden risk, giving management flexibility to time financing and prioritize R&D or regulatory activities. Over 2–6 months, low leverage lessens near-term default risk and supports continued clinical advancement without heavy interest obligations.

Improving Operating Loss Trend

A meaningful reduction in operating losses suggests improved cost discipline or progress in clinical programs limiting burn. If sustained, this structural improvement increases the company's runway, reduces required financing magnitude, and strengthens the path toward eventual commercial break-even.

Focused Orphan-Drug Strategy

Concentrating on orphan oncology and a lead program targeting imaging in kidney-impaired patients provides structural advantages: regulatory incentives, clearer clinical endpoints, and less crowded competition. This niche focus can enable faster approvals and sustainable pricing power long term.

Negative Factors

Pre-Revenue Profile

Lack of product revenue means the company cannot self-fund operations and remains dependent on external financing. Over the medium term this elevates dilution and execution risk, as commercialization timelines are uncertain and cash needs persist until revenue generation begins.

Persistent Negative Cash Flow

Sustained negative operating and free cash flow depletes liquidity and forces repeated capital raises. Even with recent improvement, ongoing cash burn constrains strategic choices, increases dependency on capital markets, and heightens execution risk for clinical and regulatory milestones over the next several months.

Erosion of Equity Base

A materially reduced equity base limits the company’s absorptive capacity for further losses and makes future financings more dilutive or costly. This structural decline weakens financial flexibility and increases the risk that additional capital raises will materially impact existing shareholders.

Ascelia Pharma AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ascelia Pharma AB (publ), a biotech company, operates as an oncology-focused orphan drug development company in Sweden. It is developing Mangoral, a novel non-gadolinium contrast agent, which is in Phase 3 for use in MRI-scans of the liver; and Oncoral, a novel oral chemotherapy tablet, which is in Phase 2 for the treatment of gastric cancer. It has a clinical collaboration agreement with Taiho Oncology, Inc. for the development of Oncoral in combination with LONSURF. Ascelia Pharma AB (publ) was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Malmö, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Ascelia Pharma AB generates revenue primarily through the research and development of its proprietary drug candidates. The company aims to monetize its products by progressing them through clinical trials and eventually bringing them to the market upon regulatory approval. Key revenue streams include potential licensing agreements, partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies, and eventual sales of approved products. Additionally, Ascelia may receive milestone payments and royalties from collaborations with other entities in the pharmaceutical industry. The company's success in securing partnerships and advancing its drug candidates through the development pipeline is crucial to its financial performance.

Ascelia Pharma AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Pre-revenue profile with continued sizable losses and negative operating/free cash flow. Low leverage is a positive, but declining equity and ongoing cash burn indicate elevated funding/dilution risk until revenues emerge.

Income Statement

Ascelia Pharma AB continues to report no revenue across both annual periods and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), consistent with a pre-commercial biotech profile. Losses remain material, with net income still deeply negative (TTM net loss of ~88.7m vs. ~80.0m in 2024), indicating profitability has not yet stabilized. A modest improvement versus 2022–2023 is visible at the operating line (EBIT loss narrowed from ~147.0m in 2022 and ~110.9m in 2023 to ~68.1m in 2024), but the company remains dependent on external funding until a revenue base emerges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a relative strength: leverage is low on a TTM basis (debt-to-equity ~0.01), which reduces near-term financial risk. However, equity has declined meaningfully over time (from ~307.8m in 2021 to ~114.4m TTM), reflecting ongoing losses and cash burn. Returns on equity are strongly negative across periods (about -1.03 TTM), underscoring that while debt is manageable, the capital base is being eroded by continued unprofitability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains weak, with operating and free cash flow persistently negative (TTM operating cash flow ~-52.4m; TTM free cash flow ~-52.5m). Cash burn has improved versus 2022–2023 (when operating cash flow was around -125m to -127m), but momentum is not consistent, as free cash flow growth is sharply negative in TTM (about -2.57). Free cash flow roughly tracks net losses (free cash flow to net income ~1.0), suggesting losses are largely translating into cash outflows rather than being offset by working-capital benefits.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	0.00	-938.00K	-1.05M	-3.89M	-8.72M	-825.00K
EBITDA	-77.13M	-67.69M	-108.56M	-132.06M	-128.42M	-98.91M
Net Income	-88.72M	-80.03M	-109.29M	-131.22M	-125.90M	-98.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	136.41M	140.92M	87.07M	218.57M	333.49M	255.37M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	72.28M	75.26M	21.86M	149.56M	261.60M	184.69M
Total Debt	1.18M	25.40M	1.06M	484.00K	1.66M	1.78M
Total Liabilities	22.01M	61.98M	12.74M	37.71M	25.66M	19.32M
Stockholders Equity	114.40M	78.94M	74.33M	180.86M	307.83M	236.06M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-52.50M	-62.84M	-126.79M	-125.33M	-116.60M	-85.92M
Operating Cash Flow	-52.45M	-62.84M	-126.79M	-125.26M	-116.56M	-85.53M
Investing Cash Flow	-57.00K	0.00	46.00K	-65.00K	-38.00K	75.99M
Financing Cash Flow	46.86M	115.19M	-936.00K	-1.10K	184.87M	92.72M

Ascelia Pharma AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.17
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:ACE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.17 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.02, above the 50-day MA of 2.96, and below the 200-day MA of 3.70, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.16 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:ACE.

Ascelia Pharma AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CANTA	64 Neutral	kr1.36B	10.79	81.19%	―	―	―
XBRANE	53 Neutral	kr220.68M	1.19	-16.90%	―	4.64%	―
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
GUARD	46 Neutral	kr37.41M	-0.24	-199.25%	―	―	0.30%
IMMU	46 Neutral	kr355.16M	-2.82	-16.51%	―	―	31.37%
ISOFOL	44 Neutral	kr187.92M	-2.33	-51.35%	―	―	-34.02%
ACE	43 Neutral	kr335.57M	-3.08	-79.60%	―	―	31.62%

Ascelia Pharma AB Corporate Events

Ascelia Pharma Deputy CEO and CFO Julie Waras Brogren to Depart for New CEO Role

Ascelia Pharma has announced that Deputy CEO and CFO Julie Waras Brogren will leave the company to assume a CEO role elsewhere, after playing a key role in advancing the commercial strategy, partnering efforts and financial function, particularly around the late‑stage development and regulatory progression of its lead drug candidate Orviglance. She will remain with the company to ensure a smooth transition of responsibilities and to support the onboarding of incoming CFO Anton Hansson, limiting operational disruption during an important phase for Ascelia Pharma’s pipeline and its positioning in the orphan oncology market.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ACE) stock is a Hold with a SEK3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ascelia Pharma AB stock, see the SE:ACE Stock Forecast page.

Ascelia Pharma Appoints Nomination Committee Ahead of 2026 AGM

Ascelia Pharma has appointed its Nomination Committee for the Annual General Meeting to be held in Malmö on 4 May 2026, in line with its governance rules that require representatives from the three largest shareholders together with the chairman of the board. The committee, chaired by Oscar Ahlgren of Salenia and including representatives from major shareholders as well as board chairman Peter Benson, will prepare proposals on board composition, remuneration, auditor selection and principles for future nomination processes, and has invited shareholders to submit proposals by 15 March 2026, underscoring ongoing shareholder engagement and adherence to Swedish corporate governance standards.

Ascelia Pharma Adjusts Share Structure Following Share Saving Program

Ascelia Pharma AB announced a change in its share structure due to the conversion of 53,335 series C shares into ordinary shares as part of a performance-based share saving program. This adjustment results in a total of 127,902,580 shares, impacting the company’s voting structure and reflecting its ongoing commitment to aligning stakeholder interests.

Ascelia Pharma Converts Series C Shares to Ordinary Shares for Incentive Program

Ascelia Pharma’s Board of Directors has decided to convert 53,335 series C shares into ordinary shares to fulfill obligations under a performance-based share saving program. This conversion is part of the company’s long-term incentive program, with shares allocated to the CEO and other participants, maintaining the total number of outstanding shares at 127,902,580. This move reflects Ascelia Pharma’s commitment to incentivizing key personnel, potentially enhancing its strategic positioning in the biotech industry.

FDA Accepts Ascelia Pharma’s Orviglance NDA for Review

Ascelia Pharma announced that the FDA has accepted the New Drug Application for Orviglance, a novel oral contrast agent for liver MRI in patients with impaired kidney function, for review. This milestone is significant as it progresses Orviglance towards availability for patients, potentially impacting the company’s discussions with commercialization partners and addressing a global market need of USD 800 million annually.

Ascelia Pharma Files Patent for Orviglance, Enhancing Market Protection

Ascelia Pharma has filed a new patent application for Orviglance, an innovative liver imaging drug designed to enhance the detection of liver lesions in patients with reduced kidney function. This patent aims to extend market protection for Orviglance until 2046, potentially boosting its commercial value and strengthening Ascelia Pharma’s position in the market.

Ascelia Pharma Advances Orviglance with FDA Submission and Financial Strengthening

Ascelia Pharma AB has submitted a New Drug Application (NDA) for Orviglance to the FDA, marking a significant milestone in its development. The submission follows successful clinical trials demonstrating Orviglance’s efficacy and safety, particularly in improving liver lesion visualization in patients with impaired kidney function. The company has also strengthened its financial position with a SEK 30 million share issue and convertible conversion, extending its cash runway into Q4 2026, beyond the expected FDA approval date. This progress supports Ascelia Pharma’s market potential and ongoing partnership discussions for Orviglance’s commercialization.

Ascelia Pharma Strengthens Leadership Team for Future Growth

Ascelia Pharma AB has announced significant changes to its executive leadership team to enhance its operational capabilities and support future growth. Anton Hansson has been appointed as the new Chief Financial Officer, joining from KPMG, while Jennie Wilborgsson has been promoted to Chief Operating Officer. These changes aim to streamline the management structure and align with the company’s strategic priorities as it focuses on advancing its drug candidates, particularly Orviglance.