Noba Bank Group AB (NOBA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: N/A
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.00M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.66
• Revenue Growth: 6.63%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: SE
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 1.91
• Shares Outstanding: 500,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 366,984
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,000,007
• PEG Ratio: 0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.53
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.88
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.51
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: kr111.00
• Price Target Upside: 28.55% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 8.97
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr12.59B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: kr93.00 ▲(7.70% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/06/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/06/26

The score is primarily supported by strong financial performance, including accelerating revenue and improved profitability in 2025, but is held back by weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD and low RSI/Stoch). Valuation is moderate based on a ~16 P/E, providing some support but not enough to offset the current technical weakness and balance sheet/cash flow volatility risks.

Positive Factors

Sustained revenue expansion and margin improvement

Multi-year revenue growth and a material margin step-up indicate durable business scaling and improved pricing or cost structure. Higher margins and revenue scale strengthen earnings power, enable reinvestment in digital products and lending, and reduce reliance on short-term rate or volume swings.

Robust cash generation and free cash flow quality

Strong operating and free cash flow in the most recent year signals high earnings quality and internal funding capacity. Reliable cash conversion supports loan book growth, dividend or buyback potential, and reduces external funding reliance, improving long-term financial flexibility.

Growing equity base and improved returns on equity

A markedly higher equity base paired with rising ROE provides a stronger capital cushion and demonstrates more efficient capital deployment. This enhances regulatory resilience, supports further lending capacity, and makes the bank better positioned to absorb stress or fund strategic initiatives.

Negative Factors

Rising leverage and higher debt levels

Increasing leverage and higher absolute debt raise funding and refinancing risk and make earnings more sensitive to interest costs. For a diversified bank, rising debt-to-equity narrows capital flexibility, may increase regulatory scrutiny, and could limit strategic options in tighter markets.

Material cash flow volatility across years

Pronounced swings in operating and free cash flow indicate timing, working capital, or credit-cycle sensitivity. This volatility complicates forecasting, raises the chance of funding mismatches during stress, and may constrain reliable capital returns or reinvestment plans over the medium term.

Earnings variability and prior loss year

A history that includes a loss year and variable profitability suggests earnings are cyclical and dependent on credit conditions or other operational factors. This uneven track record increases execution risk and implies future returns may fluctuate with economic cycles.

Noba Bank Group AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NOBA Bank Group AB (publ) provides financial and banking products and services in Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Germany, Spain, Ireland, and the Netherlands. The company operates through three brands namely, Nordax Bank, Bank Norwegian and Svensk Hypotekspension. The company's services include private loans, credit cards, specialist mortgages, equity release mortgages, cross-border lending, and deposits for retail customers. The company was formerly known as Nordax Bank AB (publ) and changed its name to NOBA Bank Group AB (publ) in June 2023. NOBA Bank Group AB (publ) was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

NOBA primarily earns money through net interest income generated from its consumer lending activities: it issues loans/credit to retail customers and receives interest and fees, while funding these assets through deposits and other financing; the spread between interest earned and interest paid constitutes a core revenue driver. The group also generates revenue from fees and commissions tied to its financial products and payment/financing services, such as charges associated with loan origination/administration and payment-related services where applicable. Additional earnings can come from ancillary banking services and other operating income linked to its digital banking and savings offerings. Specific breakdowns by product line, named partnerships, or precise revenue contribution figures are null.

Noba Bank Group AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue expansion and a material profitability step-up in 2025 (higher net margin and net income). Offsetting factors are a prior loss year (2021), increased leverage in 2025, and volatile cash flow history (including negative 2023 and lower 2025 FCF vs. 2024).

Income Statement

Profitability and growth strengthened materially over time. Annual revenue expanded from 2.2B (2020) to 15.5B (2025), with positive growth each year and a particularly strong step-up in 2025. Margins also improved meaningfully: net margin rose from 13.8% (2024) to 22.0% (2025) and operating profitability improved alongside it, driving net income up to 3.4B in 2025 (vs. 2.0B in 2024). Key weakness: results were loss-making in 2021 and profitability has shown some variability across years, indicating sensitivity to operating/credit conditions.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is supported by growing equity (from 3.4B in 2020 to 23.3B in 2025) and improved returns to shareholders (return on equity increased to ~14.6% in 2025 from ~8.8% in 2024). However, leverage has trended higher recently: debt-to-equity increased to ~1.22 in 2025 (from ~0.89 in 2024) and total debt rose to 28.5B (from 20.3B). For a diversified bank this can be manageable, but the direction of leverage is a watch item.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid in the most recent year: operating cash flow was 8.1B and free cash flow was 7.8B in 2025, with free cash flow close to net income (about 0.97x), supporting earnings quality. The main concern is volatility: operating and free cash flow were negative in 2023, and free cash flow declined sharply in 2025 (down ~31.9% vs. 2024), suggesting swings in working capital or timing effects typical in financial businesses.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Mar 2025	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	15.16B	14.44B	11.63B	7.80B	3.05B
Gross Profit	11.28B	9.59B	8.11B	6.52B	2.57B
EBITDA	4.61B	3.08B	1.80B	1.78B	29.00M
Net Income	3.41B	2.00B	1.07B	882.00M	-40.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	162.91B	159.14B	138.06B	119.33B	108.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.15B	9.31B	1.17B	3.72B	1.92B
Total Debt	28.46B	20.29B	18.30B	19.69B	19.21B
Total Liabilities	139.58B	136.47B	118.07B	99.57B	89.63B
Stockholders Equity	23.32B	22.68B	19.99B	19.75B	18.95B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	7.84B	6.72B	-2.75B	2.64B	5.21B
Operating Cash Flow	8.05B	6.85B	-2.68B	2.68B	5.22B
Investing Cash Flow	-19.11B	-134.00M	-75.00M	-60.00M	-13.65B
Financing Cash Flow	5.42B	17.84B	-56.00M	-431.00M	11.23B

Noba Bank Group AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SAVE	76 Outperform	kr73.99B	22.39	39.30%	3.01%	2.54%	4.51%
SWED.A	70 Outperform	kr374.90B	11.02	15.50%	6.87%	-14.95%	-4.73%
AZA	69 Neutral	kr53.45B	21.13	37.34%	3.34%	7.33%	23.01%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
NOBA	65 Neutral	―	17.26	―	―	6.63%	―
SEB.A	58 Neutral	kr370.91B	12.51	13.73%	4.41%	-13.83%	-12.61%

Noba Bank Group AB Corporate Events

NOBA Bank Group Launches SEK 3 Billion Commercial Paper Program

NOBA Bank Group AB has established a new commercial paper program with a framework of SEK 3 billion, or the equivalent in EUR, and has already completed its inaugural issue under the program. The initiative is designed to complement NOBA’s existing funding sources and improve diversification, which should strengthen the bank’s funding profile and flexibility as it continues to scale its specialized lending operations across its eight markets.

By adding short-term debt issuance to its toolkit, NOBA positions itself to better manage liquidity and access a broader base of investors, supporting its multi-brand strategy under Nordax Bank, Bank Norwegian, Svensk Hypotekspension and DBT. The move underscores the group’s ambition to solidify its capital markets presence following its recent Nasdaq Stockholm listing, with potential benefits for customers, investors and other stakeholders through enhanced financial resilience.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:NOBA) stock is a Hold with a SEK110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Noba Bank Group AB stock, see the SE:NOBA Stock Forecast page.

NOBA Bank Delivers Strong 2025 Results, Raises Payout and Expands via SME Acquisition

NOBA Bank Group reported strong full-year 2025 results, with its loan portfolio rising to SEK 132.3 billion and operating profit increasing to SEK 4.61 billion, while adjusted core operating profit climbed to SEK 4.98 billion and core return on tangible equity improved to 26.5%. In the fourth quarter, the bank delivered robust profit growth, improved efficiency and a higher ROTE, maintained solid capital levels with a CET1 ratio of 13.7%, and announced both an ordinary and an extra dividend for the second half of 2025; it also strengthened its funding through a SEK 750 million AT1 issue, received an outlook upgrade to positive on its BBB credit rating, and expanded into SME lending via the agreed acquisition of DBT Capital AB, underscoring its ambition to broaden its franchise and sustain commercial momentum.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:NOBA) stock is a Hold with a SEK117.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Noba Bank Group AB stock, see the SE:NOBA Stock Forecast page.

NOBA Bank Group Completes SEK 397m Acquisition of SME Lender DBT Capital

NOBA Bank Group AB has completed its acquisition of DBT Capital AB, a Swedish lender focused on long-term business loans to small and medium-sized enterprises, for a total purchase price of SEK 397 million. DBT will continue to operate under its own brand and be reported under NOBA’s “Other” segment, while the deal is expected to reduce NOBA’s Common Equity Tier 1 ratio by about 0.3 percentage points and incur SEK 15 million in transaction costs affecting the group’s fourth-quarter 2025 results, underscoring NOBA’s push to expand its presence in SME lending despite a modest short-term capital and earnings impact.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:NOBA) stock is a Hold with a SEK117.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Noba Bank Group AB stock, see the SE:NOBA Stock Forecast page.

NOBA Bank Group Sets Date for 2025 Annual Results and Investor Call

NOBA Bank Group will publish its annual accounts and fourth-quarter 2025 results on 4 February 2026, followed by an English-language webcast and conference call for investors, analysts and media, where CEO Jacob Lundblad and CFO Patrick MacArthur will present the figures and take questions. The planned disclosure and investor engagement underscore the bank’s efforts to maintain transparency as a newly listed company on Nasdaq Stockholm, providing stakeholders with insight into its performance and positioning as a growing, specialized Nordic lender with over two million customers and operations in eight markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:NOBA) stock is a Hold with a SEK117.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Noba Bank Group AB stock, see the SE:NOBA Stock Forecast page.

NOBA Bank Group Raises SEK 300 Million via Tap of Senior Preferred Bonds

NOBA Bank Group AB has tapped its outstanding senior preferred bond maturing in October 2028 with an additional SEK 300 million issuance, priced at 3‑month STIBOR plus 1.25%, with settlement scheduled for 30 December 2025. The transaction, executed under NOBA’s SEK 10 billion MTN programme with Nordea and Swedbank as lead managers, strengthens the bank’s wholesale funding base and supports its capacity to finance continued growth and operations across its Nordic and broader regional markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:NOBA) stock is a Buy with a SEK131.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Noba Bank Group AB stock, see the SE:NOBA Stock Forecast page.

NOBA Bank Group to Enter SME Lending with SEK 403m Acquisition of DBT Capital

NOBA Bank Group AB has agreed to acquire Swedish SME lender DBT Capital AB for SEK 403 million in cash, aiming to establish an SME lending vertical and support its target of expanding its loan portfolio to SEK 250 billion by 2030. The deal, expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, combines NOBA’s scale and diversified funding with DBT’s digital lending platform and established brand in the Swedish SME market, positioning NOBA to benefit from the sector’s shift from traditional banks to specialist online lenders. DBT’s management will stay on and reinvest part of the proceeds in an incentive programme, while NOBA expects the transaction to be slightly dilutive to earnings per share in the short term, reduce its CET1 ratio by about 0.3 percentage points and incur SEK 15–20 million in transaction costs in the fourth quarter of 2025, but to be value-creating over the medium term.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:NOBA) stock is a Buy with a SEK131.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Noba Bank Group AB stock, see the SE:NOBA Stock Forecast page.

NOBA Bank Group’s Credit Rating Outlook Upgraded to Positive

NOBA Bank Group AB has received an affirmed investment grade rating of BBB with an improved outlook from stable to positive by Nordic Credit Rating. This positive revision reflects the company’s strong market position and potential for future growth, which could enhance its operational capabilities and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:NOBA) stock is a Buy with a SEK131.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Noba Bank Group AB stock, see the SE:NOBA Stock Forecast page.