Swedbank (SWED.A) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr388.80B
• Dividend Yield: 6.87%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.44M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.91
• Revenue Growth: -14.95%
• EPS Growth: -4.73%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 16,933
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 7.22
• Shares Outstanding: 1,132,005,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,629,072
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,444,211
• PEG Ratio: -1.85
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.60
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.93
• P/FCF Ratio: -7.73
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: kr296.17
• Price Target Upside: -14.57% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: kr381.00 ▲(9.89% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by financial quality concerns—especially the sharp cash-flow volatility and negative 2025 operating/free cash flow—despite strong underlying profitability. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend versus moving averages, and valuation is favorable with a moderate P/E and high dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Sustained Profitability and ROE

Consistently strong operating and net margins indicate durable core earnings power. Mid‑teens ROE and high EBIT margins provide capacity to fund dividends, reinvest in digital channels, and absorb cyclical shocks, supporting long‑term shareholder returns and strategic flexibility.

Leading Market Position and Diversified Franchise

A long‑established retail and corporate footprint across Sweden and the Baltics delivers scale advantages, stable deposit franchises, and diversified fee streams. This multi‑product model and sustainability focus enhance customer stickiness and revenue resilience over several years.

Large, Stable Asset Base and Growing Equity

A sizable, stable asset base combined with a growing equity buffer improves the bank’s capacity to expand lending and manage credit cycles. Steady equity growth bolsters capital ratios, enabling continued lending, regulatory compliance, and potential shareholder returns over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Highly Volatile Cash Generation

Frequent, large swings in operating and free cash flow reduce confidence in internal funding reliability. Negative OCF/FCF in a recent year undermines earnings quality, may force reliance on external funding and constrain dividends or capital deployment in adverse cycles.

Recent Revenue Decline and Choppy Top‑Line

A meaningful revenue drop after several years of growth signals less predictable top‑line momentum. Persistent or recurrent revenue weakness could pressure margins, slow credit growth or fee expansion, and reduce capacity to invest in digital transformation over the medium term.

Elevated Leverage Amplifies Risk

While common in banking, sustained 4–5x leverage increases sensitivity to credit losses, interest‑rate swings and funding stress. Higher leverage limits strategic flexibility, raises capital buffer needs under regulation, and amplifies downside during economic downturns over multiple quarters.

Swedbank Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Swedbank AB (publ) provides various banking products and services to individuals and companies. The company operates through Swedish Banking, Baltic Banking, and Large Corporates & Institutions segments. It offers savings accounts, mutual funds and insurance savings, pension savings, institutional asset management, and other savings and investment products; private residential lending, consumer financing, corporate lending, leasing, other financing products, trade finance, and factoring services; and current accounts, cash handling, debit and credit cards, card acquiring, other payment products, as well as domestic, international, mobile, and document payments. The company also provides equity trading, structured products, corporate finance, custody services, fixed income and currency trading, and other capital market products; and administrative services, treasury operations, real estate brokerage and management, legal services, safe deposit boxes, and others. In addition, it offers asset management, as well as life insurance and pension services; investment and trading services, including currency, fixed income, and equity and related derivatives services, as well as structured products; advisory and investment banking products and services, such as corporate financing, debt capital market, leveraged finance, and loans and syndication; and transaction banking services comprising cash management, trade finance, securities, commercial payments, account, and clearing and settlement services. Further, the company provides telephone, Internet, and mobile banking services. The company operates 153 branches in Sweden, 17 branches in Estonia, 21 in Latvia, and 42 in Lithuania. It also has operations in Norway, Finland, Denmark, China, the United States, and South Africa. The company was formerly known as ForeningsSparbanken AB and changed its name to Swedbank AB (publ) in September 2006. Swedbank AB (publ) was founded in 1820 and is headquartered in Sundbyberg, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Swedbank generates revenue through various key streams, primarily from interest income, fees, and commissions. The bank earns interest income by lending to customers at higher rates than the interest it pays on deposits. Additionally, it charges fees for services such as account maintenance, transaction processing, and financial advisory. Swedbank also benefits from asset management fees for managing investment funds and portfolios for individual and institutional clients. Significant partnerships with businesses and governmental entities enhance its service offerings and drive additional revenue. Furthermore, Swedbank's engagement in sustainable finance initiatives positions it favorably to attract customers seeking responsible investment options, contributing to its earnings.

Swedbank Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and ROE are solid (mid‑20s net margin, ~31–33% EBIT margin, ROE ~14–17%), but 2025 revenue declined (~-6.8%) and cash flow is highly volatile with negative operating and free cash flow in 2025, which materially reduces confidence in earnings quality.

Income Statement

Profitability is solid for a regional bank, with net profit margin in the mid‑20s in 2024–2025 and strong operating profitability (EBIT margin ~31–33%). Net income has remained resilient (roughly SEK 33–35bn in 2023–2025). The key weakness is top-line momentum: revenue grew strongly in 2022–2024 but fell meaningfully in 2025 (about -6.8%), signaling a less favorable earnings backdrop or normalization after a strong period. Overall, earnings power looks good, but growth has turned choppy.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows healthy shareholder returns (return on equity in the low-to-high teens, ~14–17% in 2023–2025), supported by a steadily growing equity base. However, leverage is high, with debt running around 4–5x equity across the period (typical for banking but still a key risk amplifier). Total assets are large and stable-to-growing, but the consistently elevated leverage keeps the risk profile above average despite decent profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is highly volatile: operating cash flow and free cash flow swing sharply positive in some years (2020, 2021, 2024) and deeply negative in others (2022, 2023, 2025). The latest year (2025) shows negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, a notable deterioration versus 2024’s strong inflow, and the coverage of earnings by operating cash flow is negative in several years. While this volatility can occur in banks due to balance-sheet movements, the magnitude and frequent sign changes reduce confidence in cash-flow stability.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	115.94B	144.06B	131.14B	64.54B	49.66B
Gross Profit	69.49B	73.33B	72.25B	51.29B	46.70B
EBITDA	43.48B	47.15B	45.63B	29.58B	27.50B
Net Income	32.76B	34.87B	34.13B	21.36B	20.87B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.06T	3.01T	2.86T	2.85T	2.75T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	263.63B	325.60B	252.99B	365.99B	360.15B
Total Debt	965.58B	923.10B	873.63B	881.36B	808.09B
Total Liabilities	2.84T	2.79T	2.66T	2.68T	2.59T
Stockholders Equity	225.80B	218.87B	198.76B	176.06B	161.67B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-46.68B	80.41B	-146.00B	-18.98B	49.16B
Operating Cash Flow	-46.19B	80.82B	-145.15B	-18.62B	49.41B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.82B	-147.00M	-418.00M	691.00M	628.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.43B	-12.64B	32.17B	10.02B	14.15B

Swedbank Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 346.70
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:SWED.A, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 346.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 338.43, above the 50-day MA of 317.39, and above the 200-day MA of 276.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 8.89 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 65.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.36 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:SWED.A.

Swedbank Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SAVE	76 Outperform	kr71.99B	24.83	41.80%	3.01%	2.54%	4.51%
SEB.A	71 Outperform	kr385.63B	12.11	13.97%	4.41%	-13.83%	-12.61%
SWED.A	70 Outperform	kr388.80B	11.86	15.50%	6.87%	-14.95%	-4.73%
AZA	69 Neutral	kr54.84B	21.06	42.92%	3.34%	7.33%	23.01%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
SHB.A	67 Neutral	kr281.68B	11.33	12.67%	11.24%	-18.75%	-11.69%

Swedbank Corporate Events

Swedbank Posts Strong 2025 ROE, Boosts Payout and Expands via Acquisitions

Swedbank reported a solid 2025, with a full-year return on equity of 15.2% despite declines in total income and profit compared with 2024, while maintaining a strong capital position with a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 17.8%. The bank proposed a dividend of SEK 29.80 per share, including a substantial special dividend, and announced the acquisitions of Entercard and Stabelo, underlining its ambition to strengthen its position in consumer finance and mortgage lending and deliver continued value to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SWED.A) stock is a Hold with a SEK347.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Swedbank stock, see the SE:SWED.A Stock Forecast page.

Swedbank Launches SEK 1.1bn Share Buyback to Fund 2025 Incentive Plans

Swedbank’s board has resolved to initiate a share buyback of up to 2 million shares, totalling no more than SEK 1.1 billion, to secure the delivery of shares under its 2025 performance- and share-based remuneration programmes for employees. The repurchases, which will be conducted in cash on Nasdaq Stockholm by an independent investment firm and are constrained so that the bank’s total holding of own shares does not exceed 10 percent of its share capital, underscore Swedbank’s ongoing reliance on equity-based compensation while maintaining regulatory compliance under EU market abuse and safe harbour rules; buybacks will start after the publication of the year-end report and may continue until the 2026 AGM, with the bank currently holding 7.78 million of its 1.13 billion issued shares as treasury stock.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SWED.A) stock is a Hold with a SEK347.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Swedbank stock, see the SE:SWED.A Stock Forecast page.

Swedbank Sets 29 January Date for Full-Year 2025 Results and Investor Briefings

Swedbank has announced that it will publish its full-year 2025 financial report on 29 January, followed by a conference call for investors and analysts featuring President and CEO Jens Henriksson, CFO Jon Lidefelt and Head of Investor Relations Maria Caneman. The bank will also host a press briefing at its Sundbyberg headquarters and via webcast the same day, underscoring its efforts to maintain transparent communication with capital markets and media ahead of what is likely to be a closely watched update on its performance and strategic development.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SWED.A) stock is a Buy with a SEK365.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Swedbank stock, see the SE:SWED.A Stock Forecast page.

Swedbank Cleared by U.S. DOJ as New York AML Probe Continues

Swedbank said the U.S. Department of Justice has closed its investigation into the bank’s historical anti-money laundering practices without taking enforcement action, allowing the lender to draw a line under one of the major probes into past compliance shortcomings. However, an investigation by the New York Department of Financial Services remains ongoing, and the bank stated it cannot yet assess the potential financial impact or timing of that process, leaving some regulatory uncertainty in place for investors and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SWED.A) stock is a Buy with a SEK365.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Swedbank stock, see the SE:SWED.A Stock Forecast page.

Swedbank Nomination Committee Proposes Board Line-up and New Director for 2026 AGM

Swedbank’s Nomination Committee has proposed the re-election of ten existing board members and the election of banking veteran Rikard Josefson as a new board member, while confirming that current director Hans Eckerström will step down. The committee also proposes that Göran Persson remain as Chair of the Board, maintains the board size at eleven members with a near gender balance, and recommends Öhrlings PricewaterhouseCoopers AB as external auditor, underscoring continuity in governance while adding further sector expertise ahead of the Annual General Meeting on 24 March 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SWED.A) stock is a Sell with a SEK265.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Swedbank stock, see the SE:SWED.A Stock Forecast page.

Swedbank Acquires Entercard, Expanding Nordic-Baltic Card Business

Swedbank has completed the acquisition of Entercard, making it the sole owner of one of the Nordic region’s leading credit market companies. This strategic move positions Swedbank as the largest card business in the Nordic-Baltic region, enhancing customer value through integrated offerings and cross-selling opportunities. The acquisition, valued at approximately SEK 2.75 billion, is expected to impact Swedbank’s CET1 capital ratio and credit loss provisions but is anticipated to contribute positively to the Group’s return on equity in the medium term.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SWED.A) stock is a Sell with a SEK280.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Swedbank stock, see the SE:SWED.A Stock Forecast page.

Swedbank Secures SEK 837 Million VAT Refund

Swedbank has been granted a VAT refund of SEK 837 million by the Swedish Tax Agency for overpayments made in 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023. This decision follows the approval of a new method for calculating deductible VAT, reflecting positively on Swedbank’s financial position and potentially impacting its stakeholders by enhancing its operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SWED.A) stock is a Hold with a SEK289.84 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Swedbank stock, see the SE:SWED.A Stock Forecast page.