Modelon AB (MODEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr154.91M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.00K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.45
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: SE
• Employees: 75
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): -0.28
• Shares Outstanding: 18,224,707
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 210
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,002
• PEG Ratio: 0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.70
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 44 Neutral
• Price Target: kr8.50 ▼(-26.09% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/19/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/19/26

The score is driven primarily by weak financial performance—multi-year losses, negative gross profit, and persistent cash burn—despite the benefit of having no debt. Technicals add pressure with a clear downtrend (price below key moving averages and negative MACD), while oversold momentum readings only modestly offset. Valuation is neutral-to-weak because a negative P/E reflects ongoing unprofitability and no dividend yield is available.

Positive Factors

Recurring Licensing Model

Modelon's core revenue mix—software licenses, domain model libraries, and maintenance/subscription services—creates a recurring, high-margin revenue base when scaled. Over 2–6 months this supports predictable renewals and upsell potential inside engineering organizations, strengthening long-term cash visibility if customer retention improves.

No Financial Leverage

Having no reported debt materially reduces financial risk and interest obligations, preserving flexibility to invest in product and customer success. Over several months this lowers refinancing risk and gives management capacity to prioritize R&D or targeted go-to-market spending without near-term solvency pressure.

Specialized Market Position

Modelon's focus on model-based systems engineering for simulation-intensive sectors (automotive, aerospace, energy, industrial) creates structural demand and higher switching costs. Domain-specific libraries and toolchain fit can foster sticky enterprise relationships and steady addressable-market growth over multiple quarters.

Negative Factors

Persistent Negative Gross Profit

Sustained negative gross profit across multiple years indicates core product economics are not currently covering direct costs. This is a structural profitability issue that undermines margin sustainability and suggests the business model requires pricing, cost structure, or product-market fit improvements to become self-sustaining over the medium term.

Chronic Cash Burn

Repeatedly negative operating cash flow and sizeable 2025 outflow show the company is not self-funding operations. Persistent cash burn erodes runway, forces reliance on external capital, and constrains strategic flexibility for product investment or sales expansion over coming quarters absent a measurable reversal.

Declining Revenue & Shrinking Equity

Falling equity alongside a revenue contraction signals worsening fundamentals and reduced balance-sheet buffer. Declining top-line and capital depletion together impair the ability to invest in growth initiatives and raise the cost of capital, making recovery and durable scaling more challenging over a multi-month horizon.

Modelon AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Modelon AB (publ) provides systems modeling and simulation software solutions in Sweden and internationally. Its flagship product is Modelon Impact, a cloud-native system simulation software platform with a browser-based interface, and models and components for various applications. The company also offers Modelon Library Suite, a suite of libraries for physical system modeling; and FMI Toolbox for MATLAB/Simulink that supports workflows in control system development and system integration for virtual prototyping. In addition, it provides consulting and training services. The company serves automotive, aerospace, energy and power, HVAC and refrigeration, industrial equipment, and academia and research industries. Modelon AB (publ) was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Lund, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Modelon AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial performance is weak: revenue has been volatile and declined in 2025 (~-12%), profitability is deeply negative with negative gross profit in every year from 2021–2025, and operating losses remain substantial. Cash flow adds material risk with consistently negative operating cash flow and negative free cash flow across the period provided. The main offsetting strength is a no-debt balance sheet, though equity has fallen sharply, reducing flexibility.

Income Statement

The income statement shows persistent and deep losses after 2020. Revenue has been volatile and recently contracted (2025 revenue down ~12% after modest growth in 2024), while profitability remains weak: gross profit is negative in every year from 2021–2025 and operating losses are substantial (e.g., 2024 EBIT margin around -71% and net margin around -71%). The main positive is that the company did generate a profitable year in 2020, but the multi-year trend since then points to a business model still far from sustainable profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is helped by having no debt reported across the period, which limits financial risk and interest burden. However, equity has fallen sharply (from ~110m in 2022 to ~33.3m in 2025), consistent with ongoing losses and cash burn, and returns on equity are strongly negative in recent years. Overall, low leverage is a clear strength, but the shrinking equity base reduces financial flexibility.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a key weakness: operating cash flow is consistently negative and sizeable (roughly -19m to -56m from 2021–2024, and -37.5m in 2025), indicating the core business is not self-funding. Free cash flow is also negative in the years provided (2021–2024), and the 2025 free cash flow figure appears to have deteriorated versus prior periods (shown as 0 with a -100% growth rate). While free cash flow roughly tracks net losses in several years (suggesting losses are not purely accounting-based), the magnitude and persistence of cash burn remains a material risk.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	71.50M	83.61M	79.00M	67.58M	68.85M
Gross Profit	-27.80M	-19.72M	-7.27M	-13.92M	-2.48M
EBITDA	-27.00M	-58.52M	-54.16M	-63.54M	-38.32M
Net Income	-32.60M	-59.45M	-55.60M	-64.83M	-28.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	79.10M	120.96M	105.21M	160.26M	212.65M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	42.10M	62.63M	58.99M	111.86M	169.40M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	45.80M	74.45M	51.31M	50.43M	39.55M
Stockholders Equity	33.30M	46.51M	53.89M	109.83M	173.11M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-48.12M	-52.49M	-58.33M	-19.49M
Operating Cash Flow	-37.50M	-47.68M	-52.20M	-55.62M	-19.31M
Investing Cash Flow	-200.00K	-442.00K	-290.00K	-2.71M	-180.00K
Financing Cash Flow	19.60M	51.61M	-16.00K	-52.00K	137.74M

Modelon AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CDMIL	62 Neutral	kr209.77M	-4,870.97	―	3.25%	-18.05%	-71.19%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
FREJA	50 Neutral	kr452.69M	-25.38	―	―	19.18%	48.44%
MODEL	44 Neutral	kr154.91M	-3.84	-223.35%	―	―	―