Modelon AB (MODEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr200.47M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.00K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.41
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: SE
• Employees: 75
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): -0.22
• Shares Outstanding: 18,224,707
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 210
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,002
• PEG Ratio: 0.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.78
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.83
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: kr10.50 ▼(-8.70% Downside)

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance driven by sustained large losses and continued cash burn, despite revenue improvement and no debt. Technicals are mixed/neutral and do not strongly offset the fundamental weakness, while valuation is constrained by the negative P/E and lack of dividend support.

Positive Factors

No reported debt

Zero reported debt materially reduces refinancing and interest-rate risk, giving the company greater financial flexibility to fund operations or pivot strategy. Over 2–6 months this supports runway and lowers default risk compared with leveraged peers.

Recurring subscription/license model

A subscription and term-license model with maintenance and support creates recurring revenue and renewal/expansion dynamics. This structural revenue base supports predictable cashflows and customer stickiness in engineering workflows over the medium term.

Recent top-line recovery

Resumed and accelerating revenue growth indicates renewed demand for simulation tools and improves the path to scale. If sustained, higher revenue can help dilute fixed costs and improve gross-margin leverage over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Sustained unprofitability

Persistent negative gross profit and very wide net losses show the business has not reached a scalable cost structure. Over months this undermines ability to self-fund growth and signals structural issues converting revenue into positive operating profits.

Chronic cash burn

Consistent negative operating and free cash flow implies the company consumes cash to run the business, necessitating ongoing external financing or dilution. This constraint limits strategic optionality and raises funding risk over the medium term.

Eroding shareholders' equity

Declining equity reflects cumulative losses and reduces the balance-sheet buffer against shocks. Over several months this weakens capital resilience, increases reliance on new capital, and may limit ability to invest in product or go-to-market expansion without dilution.

Modelon AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Modelon AB (publ) provides systems modeling and simulation software solutions in Sweden and internationally. Its flagship product is Modelon Impact, a cloud-native system simulation software platform with a browser-based interface, and models and components for various applications. The company also offers Modelon Library Suite, a suite of libraries for physical system modeling; and FMI Toolbox for MATLAB/Simulink that supports workflows in control system development and system integration for virtual prototyping. In addition, it provides consulting and training services. The company serves automotive, aerospace, energy and power, HVAC and refrigeration, industrial equipment, and academia and research industries. Modelon AB (publ) was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Lund, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Modelon AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are dominated by persistent heavy losses and ongoing cash burn. Despite improving revenue momentum recently and no reported debt, gross profit has been negative in 2021–2024, margins remain deeply negative, free cash flow is consistently negative and worsened in 2024, and equity has been eroding.

Income Statement

Results show sustained and severe unprofitability after 2020. While revenue returned to growth in 2023 and accelerated in 2024, profitability deteriorated sharply: gross profit is negative in 2021–2024 and net margins remain deeply negative (roughly -70% in 2023–2024). EBIT and EBITDA are consistently large losses over the last four years, indicating the business has not yet found a scalable cost structure despite recent top-line improvement.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is helped by having no reported debt across all periods (debt-to-equity at 0), reducing financial risk and refinancing pressure. However, repeated losses are eroding shareholders’ equity over time (down materially from 2021–2022 to 2024), and return on equity is strongly negative in recent years, highlighting that the company is consuming capital rather than compounding it.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is weak, with operating cash flow and free cash flow negative every year shown. The cash burn remains substantial in 2023–2024 (tens of millions), and free cash flow worsened in 2024 versus 2023. Cash outflow broadly tracks the accounting losses, suggesting the losses are not merely non-cash and that continued funding may be required if the trend persists.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	81.40M	83.61M	79.00M	67.58M	68.85M	112.40M
Gross Profit	-33.10M	-19.72M	-7.27M	-13.92M	-2.48M	43.60M
EBITDA	-57.30M	-58.52M	-54.16M	-63.54M	-38.32M	5.19M
Net Income	-58.80M	-59.45M	-55.60M	-64.83M	-28.50M	3.29M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	111.00M	120.96M	105.21M	160.26M	212.65M	98.30M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	73.80M	62.63M	58.99M	111.86M	169.40M	50.30M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	50.60M	74.45M	51.31M	50.43M	39.55M	35.40M
Stockholders Equity	60.40M	46.51M	53.89M	109.83M	173.11M	62.90M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-55.49M	-48.12M	-52.49M	-58.33M	-19.49M	-1.50M
Operating Cash Flow	-55.00M	-47.68M	-52.20M	-55.62M	-19.31M	-600.00K
Investing Cash Flow	-390.00K	-442.00K	-290.00K	-2.71M	-180.00K	-900.00K
Financing Cash Flow	51.58M	51.61M	-16.00K	-52.00K	137.74M	20.00M

Modelon AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CDMIL	66 Neutral	kr213.18M	77.09	―	3.25%	-18.05%	-71.19%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
FREJA	51 Neutral	kr466.97M	-25.14	―	―	19.18%	48.44%
MODEL	45 Neutral	kr200.47M	-4.57	-223.35%	―	―	―