Modelon AB (MODEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr145.80M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.00K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.17
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: SE
• Employees: 75
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): -0.28
• Shares Outstanding: 18,224,707
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 210
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,002
• PEG Ratio: 0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.70
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr90.90M

• Rating: 43 Neutral
• Price Target: kr7.50 ▼(-34.78% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/04/26

The score is weighed down mainly by weak financial performance (multi-year losses, negative gross profit, and persistent cash burn despite no debt) and bearish technicals (price below all key moving averages with negative MACD and weak RSI). Valuation does not provide support due to a negative P/E and no dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Low financial leverage / no debt

A debt-free balance sheet reduces fixed financing costs and interest-risk over the medium term, preserving operating flexibility during continued cash burn. This structural advantage lengthens runway and lowers insolvency risk relative to peers with high leverage, aiding strategic optionality.

Recurring subscription and services revenue

A business model centered on subscriptions, maintenance and complementary services creates recurring revenue streams and visibility into renewals and expansions. That durability supports long-term customer relationships, predictable cash inflows, and opportunities for account expansion and margin improvement if retention improves.

Specialized product-market fit across engineering industries

Serving simulation-intensive sectors gives durable end-market demand driven by product development cycles in automotive, aerospace and energy. Cross-industry applicability and deep engineering use-cases support sustained addressable market and long sales cycles that can underpin stable, high-value customer relationships over months to years.

Negative Factors

Persistent negative operating cash flow

Sustained operating cash outflows indicate the core business is not self-funding, forcing reliance on external financing or equity issuances. Over a multi-month horizon this constrains investment in R&D, sales scale-up, and customer success, and raises execution risk if funding access tightens.

Negative gross profit across multiple years

Repeated negative gross profit signals weak unit economics or cost structure issues that are structural, not just one-off. Without margin improvement through pricing changes, product mix shifts, or cost reductions, scaling revenue will likely worsen losses and undermine path to sustainable profitability.

Shrinking equity base reduces financial flexibility

A materially reduced equity base limits the company’s capacity to absorb continued losses or fund strategic initiatives without dilutive financing. Even with no debt, the smaller capital buffer heightens vulnerability to revenue shocks and narrows leeway for multi-quarter investments needed to fix underlying profitability issues.

Modelon AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Modelon AB (publ) provides systems modeling and simulation software solutions in Sweden and internationally. Its flagship product is Modelon Impact, a cloud-native system simulation software platform with a browser-based interface, and models and components for various applications. The company also offers Modelon Library Suite, a suite of libraries for physical system modeling; and FMI Toolbox for MATLAB/Simulink that supports workflows in control system development and system integration for virtual prototyping. In addition, it provides consulting and training services. The company serves automotive, aerospace, energy and power, HVAC and refrigeration, industrial equipment, and academia and research industries. Modelon AB (publ) was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Lund, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Modelon primarily makes money by licensing its modeling and simulation software and related model libraries to customers (typically engineering organizations) on a subscription or term-license basis. Revenue is generated from (1) software license fees for its core simulation products, (2) sales of domain-specific model libraries that extend the software with validated components for particular applications, and (3) maintenance and support services tied to active licenses (e.g., updates, technical support, and customer success/enablement). The company may also earn services revenue from professional services such as onboarding, training, and engineering consulting to help customers implement model-based workflows and develop or customize models; if such services are offered, they generally complement (rather than replace) recurring software revenue. Significant factors that typically contribute to earnings include renewals and expansion within existing customer accounts, new customer acquisition in simulation-intensive industries, and ecosystem/compatibility with widely used modeling standards and third-party tools; specific named partnerships or customer concentration details are null.

Modelon AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are the primary drag: revenue has been volatile and recently declined (~12% in 2025), profitability is deeply negative with negative gross profit across 2021–2025, and operating/free cash flow are persistently negative, implying ongoing funding/execution risk. The main offset is a no-debt balance sheet, but equity has shrunk sharply, reducing flexibility.

Income Statement

The income statement shows persistent and deep losses after 2020. Revenue has been volatile and recently contracted (2025 revenue down ~12% after modest growth in 2024), while profitability remains weak: gross profit is negative in every year from 2021–2025 and operating losses are substantial (e.g., 2024 EBIT margin around -71% and net margin around -71%). The main positive is that the company did generate a profitable year in 2020, but the multi-year trend since then points to a business model still far from sustainable profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is helped by having no debt reported across the period, which limits financial risk and interest burden. However, equity has fallen sharply (from ~110m in 2022 to ~33.3m in 2025), consistent with ongoing losses and cash burn, and returns on equity are strongly negative in recent years. Overall, low leverage is a clear strength, but the shrinking equity base reduces financial flexibility.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a key weakness: operating cash flow is consistently negative and sizeable (roughly -19m to -56m from 2021–2024, and -37.5m in 2025), indicating the core business is not self-funding. Free cash flow is also negative in the years provided (2021–2024), and the 2025 free cash flow figure appears to have deteriorated versus prior periods (shown as 0 with a -100% growth rate). While free cash flow roughly tracks net losses in several years (suggesting losses are not purely accounting-based), the magnitude and persistence of cash burn remains a material risk.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	71.50M	83.61M	79.00M	67.58M	68.85M
Gross Profit	-27.80M	-19.72M	-7.27M	-13.92M	-2.48M
EBITDA	-27.00M	-58.52M	-54.16M	-63.54M	-38.32M
Net Income	-32.60M	-59.45M	-55.60M	-64.83M	-28.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	79.10M	120.96M	105.21M	160.26M	212.65M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	42.10M	62.63M	58.99M	111.86M	169.40M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	45.80M	74.45M	51.31M	50.43M	39.55M
Stockholders Equity	33.30M	46.51M	53.89M	109.83M	173.11M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-48.12M	-52.49M	-58.33M	-19.49M
Operating Cash Flow	-37.50M	-47.68M	-52.20M	-55.62M	-19.31M
Investing Cash Flow	-200.00K	-442.00K	-290.00K	-2.71M	-180.00K
Financing Cash Flow	19.60M	51.61M	-16.00K	-52.00K	137.74M

Modelon AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CDMIL	62 Neutral	kr215.90M	-160.32	―	3.25%	-18.05%	-71.19%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
FREJA	50 Neutral	kr428.41M	-26.07	―	―	19.18%	48.44%
MODEL	43 Neutral	kr145.80M	-5.92	-223.35%	―	―	―