MedCap AB (MCAP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr6.88B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 21.82K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 37.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.61
• Revenue Growth: 11.30%
• EPS Growth: -14.49%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 570
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 4.83
• Shares Outstanding: 15,077,583
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 14,106
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 21,821
• PEG Ratio: 7.70
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.90
• P/FCF Ratio: 29.33
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 22.59
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr2.23B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: kr488.00 ▼(-8.44% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/08/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/08/26

The score is primarily supported by solid financial performance driven by strong revenue growth and steady operating profitability, but is held back by higher 2025 leverage, weaker earnings-quality signals from uneven cash conversion, mixed technical momentum, and a high P/E valuation with no dividend yield provided.

Positive Factors

Sustained revenue scaling

Multi-year top-line growth from ~0.8B to ~2.1B demonstrates successful scaling of subsidiary operations and expanding market penetration. Durable revenue growth underpins future earnings potential and provides a base for reinvestment, acquisitions, and upstream cash flow to the parent.

Acquisition-led healthcare operating model

MedCap’s model of buying and operationally developing niche healthcare businesses creates recurring operational revenue and the potential for portfolio improvement via add-on acquisitions. This structural approach can compound value over time and aligns incentives toward durable cash generation.

Consistent positive free cash flow

Positive and growing free cash flow across years supports capital allocation flexibility — funding acquisitions, debt service, and upstream dividends. While conversion is imperfect, persistent FCF reduces reliance on external financing and supports long-term balance-sheet resilience.

Negative Factors

Rising leverage in 2025

A meaningful step-up in debt and higher debt-to-equity meaningfully reduces financial flexibility and increases interest and refinancing risk. If sustained, elevated leverage constrains the firm's ability to pursue opportunistic deals or withstand sector shocks over the medium term.

Uneven cash conversion quality

Inconsistent conversion of earnings into operating cash (OCF below earnings in multiple years) suggests working-capital swings or timing effects that can stress liquidity during downsides and complicate reliable upstreaming of dividends or funding of acquisitions.

Gross-margin volatility in 2025

A sharp gross-margin decline signals possible mix shifts, pricing pressure, or one-off cost items that could erode long-term unit economics. Even with resilient operating margins, recurring margin compression would reduce cash flow available for reinvestment and returns to shareholders.

MedCap AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MedCap AB (publ) is a private equity firm specializing in investments in secondary direct, later stage, industry consolidation, growth capital, middle market, mature, turnarounds, buyout. It prefers to invest in healthcare equipment and services, biotechnology, life sciences, and pharmaceuticals companies. The firm prefers to invest in small to medium size companies that are not listed on the stock exchange and are based in Northern Europe. It typically invests between SEK25 million ($2.75 million) to SEK150 million ($16.51 million) with enterprise value and sales revenue between SEK50 million ($5.90 million) to SEK200 million ($23.06 million) and EBITDA between SEK1 million ($0.11 million) to SEK50 million ($5.50 million). The firm seeks to acquire stakes between 20% and 50% in its portfolio companies. It uses its capital and loans and makes balance sheet investments. MedCap AB (publ) was founded in 2001 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

MedCap makes money primarily through its consolidated operating subsidiaries rather than through financial trading. The core revenue model is based on: (1) Operating revenue from subsidiaries: The group’s subsidiaries sell their own products and services to customers in healthcare, generating revenue from product sales (e.g., medical devices/equipment, consumables, and related solutions) and, where applicable, service revenue (e.g., installation, maintenance, training, or other after-sales support). These revenues are recognized in the subsidiaries and consolidated into MedCap’s group revenue and operating profit. (2) Value creation via acquisitions and long-term ownership: MedCap seeks to acquire controlling stakes in niche healthcare companies and improve their performance through operational development, strategic investments, add-on acquisitions, and scaling commercial operations. Over time, this can increase group earnings (EBIT/EBITDA) and cash flow available to the parent company. (3) Cash flow upstreaming to the parent: MedCap can realize returns from subsidiaries through dividends and other permitted intra-group cash transfers, supported by the subsidiaries’ operating cash flows. (4) Potential capital gains on divestments: If MedCap sells a subsidiary or part of a holding, it may realize gains (or losses) based on the sale price relative to carrying value, contributing to overall shareholder returns, though such transactions are episodic rather than recurring. Specific material partnerships or customer concentration details are null.

MedCap AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth and consistently healthy operating profitability support the score. Offsetting factors include a sharp 2025 gross-margin decline, a meaningful increase in leverage (higher debt-to-equity), and uneven cash conversion with operating cash flow below earnings in several years.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled strongly over the past several years (from ~0.8B in 2020 to ~2.1B in 2025), supporting steady earnings growth. Operating profitability is consistently healthy, with EBIT margin generally in the mid-teens and net margin around ~10–11% in recent years. The main weakness is volatility in cost structure: 2025 shows a sharp drop in gross margin versus prior years, which raises questions on mix, pricing, or one-time effects even though EBIT and EBITDA margins held up.

Balance Sheet

The company has maintained solid profitability on equity (mid-teens return on equity across the period), indicating effective capital use. Leverage, however, has increased meaningfully in 2025 as total debt rose sharply and debt-to-equity moved up (to ~0.49 from ~0.28 in 2024), reducing balance-sheet flexibility versus the prior trajectory. Equity has grown, but the recent step-up in debt is a clear risk factor to monitor.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is generally supportive: free cash flow is positive each year and grew materially from 2022 to 2025, and free cash flow is closely aligned with net income in recent years (roughly ~0.82x). The key weakness is inconsistency in cash conversion, with operating cash flow not consistently covering reported earnings (notably below 1x in several years, including 2025), suggesting working-capital swings or timing effects that can pressure near-term liquidity quality.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.11B	1.81B	1.59B	1.11B	916.30M
Gross Profit	291.20M	1.06B	926.40M	462.40M	369.80M
EBITDA	473.90M	396.00M	341.90M	237.30M	191.50M
Net Income	219.80M	207.40M	172.20M	117.60M	96.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.61B	1.99B	1.66B	1.43B	1.17B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	370.40M	370.10M	188.20M	236.20M	139.70M
Total Debt	707.00M	358.00M	261.20M	340.00M	256.90M
Total Liabilities	1.15B	703.20M	635.10M	570.60M	471.80M
Stockholders Equity	1.45B	1.28B	1.02B	856.30M	696.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	280.50M	293.80M	188.70M	41.20M	55.40M
Operating Cash Flow	342.70M	360.00M	228.00M	85.50M	116.30M
Investing Cash Flow	-391.30M	-128.80M	-152.30M	-56.10M	-64.80M
Financing Cash Flow	52.20M	-46.10M	-119.70M	61.20M	-64.10M

MedCap AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 533.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:MCAP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 533 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 480.57, above the 50-day MA of 496.10, and below the 200-day MA of 543.62, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.74 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:MCAP.

MedCap AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ORES	78 Outperform	kr6.51B	6.12	―	6.23%	-0.22%	-58.80%
MCAP	64 Neutral	kr6.88B	37.43	15.16%	―	11.30%	-14.49%
CRED.A	63 Neutral	kr8.81B	8.37	11.24%	2.18%	4.72%	-38.28%
SVOL.B	55 Neutral	kr4.98B	-3.58	7.55%	0.79%	-25.75%	-27.25%
BURE	53 Neutral	kr15.01B	-3.91	-23.18%	1.13%	22.38%	-153.85%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
LINC	48 Neutral	kr3.91B	-9.33	-1.58%	―	45733.33%	-105.08%

MedCap AB Corporate Events

MedCap Delivers Strong Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Growth With Sharply Higher Margins

MedCap AB reported strong growth for the fourth quarter of 2025, with net sales up 25% to SEK 591.0 million and EBITA rising 73% to SEK 122.1 million, lifting the EBITA margin to 20.7%. On an adjusted basis, EBITA grew 68% and the margin improved to 19.1%, while profit after tax reached SEK 65.0 million and earnings per share increased to SEK 4.3, supported by robust operating cash flow of SEK 151.5 million. For the full year 2025, net sales climbed 17% to SEK 2,108.0 million and EBITA increased 18% to SEK 388.6 million, with adjusted EBITA up 26% and the adjusted margin strengthening to 18.3%, underscoring continued margin expansion and solid profitability that reinforce MedCap’s financial position and operational momentum within its healthcare niche.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:MCAP) stock is a Hold with a SEK541.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MedCap AB stock, see the SE:MCAP Stock Forecast page.