Balco Group AB (BALCO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr336.12M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 25.55K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.41
• Revenue Growth: -0.80%
• EPS Growth: -442.39%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 562
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): -0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 23,021,648
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 15,400
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 25,553
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.54
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.31
• P/FCF Ratio: 36.88
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.25
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr1.38B

• Rating: 44 Neutral
• Price Target: kr14.00 ▼(-13.58% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/08/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/08/26

The score is primarily held down by weakening financial performance (losses, margin compression, volatile cash flow, and higher leverage). Technicals are only modestly supportive in the short term but remain weak longer term, and valuation is unattractive given negative earnings and no stated dividend.

Positive Factors

End-to-end project model

Balco's integrated end-to-end delivery (engineering, manufacturing, logistics, installation) creates stickiness with customers and predictable project scopes. This business model supports stable project margins, cross-sell of ancillary components, and repeat work with housing cooperatives over multi-year renovation cycles.

Equity cushion on balance sheet

A sizable equity base provides a durable buffer against cyclical swings and supports credit access for project financing. Even with rising leverage, meaningful shareholder equity helps absorb losses, preserve solvency through downturns, and sustain capacity to bid on secured renovation and new-build contracts.

Proven cash generation in better years

Historical ability to produce strong free cash flow in prior years shows the underlying business can convert project revenue into liquidity. This indicates operational leverage in good cycles, enabling reinvestment in manufacturing capacity and smoothing funding of working capital across multi-period projects.

Negative Factors

Profitability deterioration

A swing to negative operating profit and net margin signals structural margin pressure or execution shortfalls. Persistent losses erode retained earnings, limit reinvestment, and raise the breakeven needed to restore profitability, making future margin recovery dependent on sustained volume gains or material cost fixes.

Rising leverage

An increasing debt load reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest risks, especially alongside recent losses. Higher leverage constrains the firm's ability to finance larger projects, respond to tender requirements, or withstand prolonged slow demand without deleveraging or dilutive capital actions.

Volatile cash flow

Marked year-to-year swings in cash generation reduce predictability for funding working capital and project execution. When cash conversion is unreliable while leverage rises, the company faces greater refinancing and counterparty risk and must maintain higher liquidity buffers or costly external funding.

Balco Group AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Balco Group AB (BALCO) is a Swedish company specializing in the manufacturing and supply of balcony solutions, primarily serving the residential construction sector. The company operates in the building and construction industry, focusing on enhancing living spaces through innovative balcony systems, glass railings, and other related products. Balco's offerings cater to both new construction projects and renovation initiatives, positioning the company as a key player in improving urban living environments.

How the Company Makes Money

Balco Group AB makes money by selling balcony projects and related services, typically delivered as end-to-end contracts that combine product supply and installation. Its revenue model is primarily project-based: (1) Balcony renovation contracts, where existing buildings replace or upgrade balconies; and (2) New-build balcony deliveries, where balconies are supplied for newly constructed properties. In both cases, the company’s earnings come from pricing the total scope—engineering/design, manufacturing of balcony systems and components, logistics, and on-site installation—so revenue is recognized as projects are delivered under customer contracts. Additional revenue can come from ancillary items and services included in balcony projects (e.g., glazing/enclosures and other balcony-related components) when contracted as part of the overall delivery. Significant earnings drivers include the volume of awarded projects, average project size, capacity utilization in manufacturing, installation execution efficiency, and demand conditions in renovation and new-construction markets. Specific details on named partnerships or the split of revenue by geography/product are null.

Balco Group AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Recent fundamentals are weak: profitability deteriorated into an annual loss in 2025 with negative operating results and compressed margins. Cash flow has been volatile with a sharp drop in 2025, and rising leverage alongside negative ROE reduces flexibility despite a still-meaningful equity base.

Income Statement

Profitability has deteriorated materially: the company moved from healthy margins in 2020–2022 to sharply lower profits in 2023–2024 and a clear loss in 2025 (annual), with negative operating profit and negative net margin. Revenue growth has also turned choppy, ending with a slight decline in 2025 after a strong 2024. Strength: the business historically produced solid gross profit and strong profitability earlier in the period, suggesting earnings power in better conditions. Weakness: the recent swing to losses and margin compression indicates a tougher operating environment and weaker cost absorption.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has increased meaningfully over time: debt-to-equity rose from low levels in 2022–2023 to a higher level in 2025, while returns on equity turned negative in 2025 after being positive in 2020–2023 and near-zero in 2024. Strength: equity remains sizable relative to assets, providing some balance-sheet cushion. Weakness: the rising debt load combined with negative profitability in the latest year reduces financial flexibility and raises risk if weak earnings persist.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has become volatile. Operating and free cash flow were strong in 2022 and 2024, but turned negative in 2023 and dropped sharply in 2025 (annual). In 2025, free cash flow stayed positive despite net losses, but cash conversion weakened substantially versus prior years. Strength: the business has demonstrated an ability to generate strong free cash flow in better years (notably 2022 and 2024). Weakness: the sharp downturn and year-to-year swings signal lower cash-flow reliability, which matters more as leverage increases.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.30B	1.42B	1.21B	1.33B	1.12B
Gross Profit	159.50M	247.90M	245.35M	287.61M	296.21M
EBITDA	32.10M	89.42M	118.41M	145.45M	153.79M
Net Income	-35.80M	1.10M	45.90M	76.15M	90.24M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.72B	1.63B	1.27B	1.30B	1.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	158.10M	103.10M	2.81M	51.87M	117.50M
Total Debt	583.90M	425.80M	244.42M	156.70M	214.50M
Total Liabilities	986.30M	831.70M	519.25M	565.57M	553.58M
Stockholders Equity	732.50M	796.80M	746.14M	729.79M	692.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	10.80M	72.20M	-39.40M	128.88M	45.70M
Operating Cash Flow	15.00M	85.30M	-26.13M	153.02M	62.52M
Investing Cash Flow	-49.10M	-95.70M	-52.90M	-52.59M	-102.11M
Financing Cash Flow	90.80M	113.10M	29.62M	-167.68M	-57.49M

Balco Group AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 16.20
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:BALCO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.29, above the 50-day MA of 15.95, and below the 200-day MA of 20.73, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:BALCO.

Balco Group AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RVRC	78 Outperform	kr7.26B	12.87	25.41%	2.02%	6.44%	0.49%
FMM.B	71 Outperform	kr3.65B	19.26	10.51%	3.07%	2.08%	-7.27%
INWI	66 Neutral	kr8.34B	18.51	9.42%	3.37%	3.41%	-1.70%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
KAMBI	61 Neutral	kr2.82B	52.58	4.76%	―	-5.16%	-48.79%
BMAX	61 Neutral	kr3.14B	16.85	7.24%	1.40%	4.04%	433.33%
BALCO	44 Neutral	kr336.12M	-199.14	-4.80%	―	-0.80%	-442.39%

Balco Group AB Corporate Events

Balco Group Board Member Johannes Nyberg to Step Down

Balco Group has announced that long‑serving board member Johannes Nyberg will step down from the Board of Directors, a position he has held since the company’s 2017 IPO. Nyberg, who has also played a key role on the Audit Committee overseeing financial reporting and internal controls, is leaving due to the demands of his CEO role at Skandrenting and other extensive commitments.

The company emphasized its appreciation for Nyberg’s years of contribution and dedication to both board and committee work. While no immediate successor was announced, the departure removes a seasoned governance figure, suggesting that board renewal and the filling of his audit and oversight responsibilities will be an important near‑term focus for Balco’s leadership and shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:BALCO) stock is a Hold with a SEK16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Balco Group AB stock, see the SE:BALCO Stock Forecast page.

Balco Group Secures Record Orders but Posts 2025 Loss Amid Profitability Push

Balco Group reported a record order intake for both the fourth quarter and full year 2025, driven by its largest-ever single order of about SEK 200 million from German shipyard Meyer Werft and several major public housing renovation projects, lifting the order backlog and supporting strong operating cash flow despite lower net sales and a sharp decline in margins. Profitability remained unsatisfactory, with a full-year loss after tax and a proposed zero dividend, but management points to an implemented restructuring programme expected to generate annual savings of around SEK 55 million, adjusted loan covenants in place through mid-2026, and improving market activity in renovation across key geographies as reasons for cautious optimism about a gradual earnings recovery in 2026, while the group also strengthens its sustainability profile and continues to target growth segments such as maritime and energy-efficient balcony renovations.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:BALCO) stock is a Hold with a SEK16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Balco Group AB stock, see the SE:BALCO Stock Forecast page.

Balco Subsidiary RK Teknik Wins SEK 80 Million in Public Housing Balcony Orders

RK Teknik, a subsidiary of Balco Group, has won three major public housing projects in Luleå, Stockholm and Gothenburg with a combined order value of about SEK 80 million, covering the delivery and installation of glazed and open balconies, as well as eco-concrete patios, side walls and roofs in some cases. The contracts, some of which are divided into phases extending into 2026 and will use glazing systems from Balco’s Finnish unit Riikku Rakenteet Oy, reinforce Balco Group’s strategic push into the public housing segment, underpinning more stable production, strengthening RK Teknik’s position in this high-volume, long-term growth market, and supporting its focus on sustainable balcony solutions that enhance resident quality of life and long-term value for public housing companies.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:BALCO) stock is a Hold with a SEK16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Balco Group AB stock, see the SE:BALCO Stock Forecast page.

Balco Group Sets Date for Fourth-Quarter 2025 Results and Webcast

Balco Group AB will publish its interim report for the fourth quarter of 2025 on 6 February 2026 at 13:00 CET and will follow up with a webcast conference call at 14:00 CET the same day, led by CEO and President Camilla Ekdahl and interim CFO Carin Bengtsson. Investors and other stakeholders will be able to access the presentation materials in advance via the company’s website, participate in the live webcast with the option to ask questions, or view a recorded version later, underscoring Balco’s ongoing efforts to maintain transparent communication with the capital market around its financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:BALCO) stock is a Hold with a SEK18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Balco Group AB stock, see the SE:BALCO Stock Forecast page.