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Swisscom AG (ADR) (SCMWY)
OTHER OTC:SCMWY

Swisscom AG (SCMWY) AI Stock Analysis

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SCMWY

Swisscom AG

(OTC:SCMWY)

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Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$99.00
▲(39.48% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by above-average financial quality (strong cash flow and controlled leverage), supported by constructive 2026 free-cash-flow guidance and synergy progress. Offsetting this, technicals look overextended and valuation is demanding (high P/E), while ongoing revenue/ARPU pressure and integration costs add execution risk.

Swisscom AG (SCMWY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Swisscom AG Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSwisscom AG is a leading telecommunications provider in Switzerland, offering a wide range of services including fixed-line and mobile telecommunications, broadband internet, and digital television. The company operates in several sectors, including telecommunications, IT services, and media, serving both residential and business customers. Swisscom is known for its advanced network infrastructure and commitment to innovation in digital solutions, making it a key player in the Swiss digital landscape.
How the Company Makes MoneySwisscom generates revenue primarily through its telecommunications services, which include mobile and fixed-line voice and data services. The company offers various subscription plans for individual consumers and businesses, which contribute significantly to its revenue. Additionally, Swisscom earns income from its broadband internet services and digital television offerings. The company also has a growing segment in IT services, providing cloud solutions, cybersecurity, and digital transformation services to enterprises. Significant partnerships with technology providers and local businesses enhance its service offerings and customer base, further contributing to its financial performance. Furthermore, Swisscom's investments in 5G technology and expansion of its fiber optic network are expected to drive future revenue growth.

Swisscom AG Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed achievement of key strategic milestones (dividend increase, maintained credit rating), tangible operational progress (Italy synergies ahead of plan, wholesale and fiber monetization, FTTH/5G coverage, beem and AI adoption), and financial stability (stable group free cash flow, net debt reduction). However, the company continues to face notable headwinds: ongoing telco service revenue declines in both Switzerland and Italy, material integration and financing costs (PPA depreciation and added interest), contract uncertainties (Poste MVNO, tower strategy) and promotional/ARPU pressure. Management presented credible plans and guided to growing group free cash flow in 2026 driven largely by Italian synergies, but execution risk remains in stabilizing core telco revenues and realizing long‑term IT/adjacency growth.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Dividend Increase and Strong Credit Rating
Board proposed an 18% dividend increase to CHF 26 for 2025 and guidance to raise to CHF 27 for 2026; maintained sector-leading credit rating (Moody's A2 / S&P A-).
Stable Group Free Cash Flow and Improved 2026 Guidance
Operating free cash flow was stable at CHF 1.4bn in 2025; 2026 group operating free cash flow guidance increased to CHF 2.0bn (≈ +CHF 100m year-over-year guidance uplift driven by Italian synergies).
Synergy Delivery in Italy Ahead of Plan
Fastweb + Vodafone synergies reached ~EUR 95m in 2025 (overachieving initial targets by ~EUR 35m). 2026 synergy guidance is +EUR 200m (company target EUR 600m run rate by 2029) and 2026 synergy target cited as ~EUR 300m total for the year.
Net Add and Subscriber Momentum
Switzerland: mobile postpaid net adds +44k in Q4 and total mobile net adds ~185k for the year; Italy: wholesale broadband net adds +221k and retail broadband net adds +37k in 2025, with wholesale mobile additions including almost 2m lines (CoopVoce migration).
Network Footprint and Performance
FTTH coverage at 56% in both Switzerland and Italy; Switzerland target 60% by year-end and Italy target 65% by year-end; 5G+ coverage at 89% in both markets with 91% (Switzerland) / 92% (Italy) targets next year; continual wins in independent network tests.
Wholesale and Fiber Monetization Progress
Swiss wholesale wireline access revenue grew ~9% to CHF 203m in 2025; 51% of wholesale active connections already on FTTH, supporting future-proof access revenue growth.
New Products & B2B Platform Traction
Switzerland launched beem (B2B connectivity + security): ~40k users and ~1,000 locations onboarded (ahead of expectations). Swisscom myAI attracted ~67k consumer users; Italy sold >25k AI licenses and grew FASTcloud/IT and energy offerings (energy >100k customers, 141k acquisitions in 2025).
Financial Discipline — Net Debt & Ratings
Net debt reduced by ~CHF 600m year-over-year; reported leverage at 2.4x (2025) with 2026 leverage guidance of 2.3x (subject to tower/lease outcomes); average interest rate ~1.86% and balanced maturity profile.
Negative Updates
Telco Service Revenue Declines
Group revenue declined to CHF 15.048bn (down CHF 310m YoY; currency-adjusted down CHF 205m). Switzerland telco service revenue down (Swiss segment revenue guidance implies ~CHF -100m y/y); Italy telco service revenue declined EUR 226m in 2025 (B2C -EUR 160m, B2B -EUR 66m). 2026 Italy telco service revenue still expected to decline ~EUR 150m.
ARPU and Price Pressure
Blended Swiss ARPU declined roughly CHF 1; Swiss B2B ARPU down ~2% in 2025. Competitive and technology-driven substitution (e.g., MPLS→SD‑WAN) continues to pressure ARPU and service revenues.
Churn and Order Intake Effects from Price Alignments
Italy B2C experienced negative net adds and increased churn following front‑book price rises and back‑book alignment; Swiss planned price increases carry risk of churn and net effect on service revenue is conservatively expected to be modest (mid/low double-digit millions net).
High Integration & One‑off Costs Affecting Profit
Integration costs and P&L impacts substantial: Italy integration OpEx in 2025 ~EUR 109m (total integration costs EUR 217m in 2025), with ~EUR 250m integration costs expected in 2026 (EUR 200m CapEx, EUR 50m OpEx). Group recorded CHF 236m PPA depreciation and added interest expense ~CHF 266m, contributing to net income decline (net income down CHF 271m).
Loss of Poste Mobile Wholesale Contract and Contract Uncertainties
Poste Mobile MVNO loss expected to reduce revenue (~EUR -75m) though covered by an indemnity in 2026 (wash in 2026 reported numbers) — will impact 2026→2027 bridge; tower strategy under reassessment creating leverage/lease liability uncertainty.
Italy Telco Turnaround Still in Transition
Despite synergy progress, Italian core telco revenue remains under pressure; Q4 improvements were aided by one‑offs and ramping synergies, and management expects stabilization only gradually (back‑half 2026 onward).
CapEx, Currency and Structural Headwinds
Group CapEx remains material (2026 guidance CHF 3.0–3.1bn) with significant ongoing fiber rollout (Swiss FTTH investment CHF ~500m in 2025). Currency effects reduced reported revenue by CHF 105m in 2025 and complicate comparability. Ongoing CapEx→OpEx shift in IT limits OpEx reduction potential.
Swiss IT Growth Below Expectations
Swiss IT revenue grew only ~2% in 2025 (below expectations), though profitability improved (IT EBITDAaL margin 6.5%) — indicates slower near-term IT top‑line expansion amid macro uncertainty.
Company Guidance
The company guided to growing group free cash flow in 2026 with concrete targets: group revenue CHF 14.7–14.9bn, EBITDAaL CHF 5.0–5.1bn, CapEx CHF 3.0–3.1bn and operating free cash flow CHF 2.0bn (up ~CHF100m y/y); dividend guidance CHF 27/share and leverage guidance ~2.3x (excludes any impact from potential changed tower/tower-lease arrangements). Switzerland guidance: revenue CHF 7.7–7.8bn, EBITDAaL ~CHF 3.3bn, CapEx CHF 1.6–1.7bn and operating free cash flow CHF 1.6–1.7bn (stable), with ~CHF50m of telco cost savings targeted in 2026. Italy guidance (EUR): revenue ~EUR 7.2bn (down ~EUR100m), EBITDAaL EUR 1.8–1.9bn (EUR100–200m improvement y/y driven by synergies), CapEx ~EUR1.5bn and operating free cash flow up EUR100–200m (improvement back‑loaded to H2); telco service revenue decline expected to narrow to ~‑EUR150m (c.2/3 B2C, 1/3 B2B) and the Poste MVNO loss is neutralised in 2026 by SPA indemnity. Synergies are ramping (EUR95m run‑rate end‑2025), management targets ~EUR300m in 2026 (CFO expects ~+EUR200m y/y) on the path to a EUR600m run‑rate by 2029, with total integration costs ~EUR700m over the first three years (2026 integration accruals ~EUR250m: ~EUR200m CapEx, ~EUR50m OpEx).

Swisscom AG Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong and consistent cash generation (notably higher 2025 free cash flow) and manageable leverage support an above-average financial profile. The main offset is 2025 margin compression and weaker earnings conversion despite a revenue rebound, which raises monitoring risk on cost and profitability trends.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Profitability remains solid for a telecom operator, with consistently high gross margins (~79–82%) and healthy EBITDA margins (~39–44%) over the period. However, after several years of flat-to-slightly negative revenue growth (2022–2024), the 2025 rebound (+7.4%) came with notable margin compression: net margin fell to ~8.4% from mid-teens levels in 2021–2024, and EBIT margin also stepped down. Overall, the income statement shows strong underlying economics but a weaker 2025 earnings conversion that bears monitoring.
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Leverage is moderate and generally well-controlled, with debt-to-equity mostly in the ~0.16–0.30 range, supporting balance-sheet resilience for a capital-intensive telecom business. Equity has been stable-to-growing across the period, and historical returns on equity (where provided) are healthy (low-to-mid teens in 2020–2024). The main drawback is the uptick in leverage versus 2022–2023 (debt-to-equity rising back toward ~0.30 in 2024–2025), which slightly reduces financial flexibility compared with the lower-leverage years.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow is consistently robust and free cash flow is meaningfully positive each year. 2025 showed a strong step-up in free cash flow (+13.5%) alongside higher operating cash flow, supporting funding capacity for dividends, debt service, and investment. That said, free cash flow has not consistently tracked earnings closely (free cash flow around ~41–50% of net income), and the cash-flow-to-earnings relationship has been uneven year-to-year, suggesting periodic working-capital or investment swings.
Breakdown
Income Statement
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
Stockholders Equity
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
Investing Cash Flow
Financing Cash Flow

Swisscom AG Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price70.98
Price Trends
50DMA
82.40
Positive
100DMA
77.33
Positive
200DMA
74.30
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.82
Positive
RSI
68.87
Neutral
STOCH
37.92
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SCMWY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 70.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 90.87, below the 50-day MA of 82.40, and below the 200-day MA of 74.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.82 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 68.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SCMWY.

Swisscom AG Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (―)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$33.21B26.1910.10%3.15%5.74%7.12%
75
Outperform
$18.19B16.1715.56%6.14%-5.21%-7.45%
70
Outperform
$25.62B17.329.03%5.03%-3.16%4.70%
66
Neutral
$48.29B23.5310.09%3.48%32.48%-22.94%
60
Neutral
$33.18B7.35-8.37%3.77%19.67%-278.51%
* Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SCMWY
Swisscom AG
92.35
33.66
57.36%
CHT
Chunghwa Telecom Co
43.15
5.47
14.52%
TLK
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk
18.45
4.70
34.21%
VIV
Telefonica Brasil
16.27
8.14
100.00%
VOD
Vodafone
14.46
5.63
63.78%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 18, 2026