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Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI)
NASDAQ:SBGI
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Sinclair Broadcast
(NASDAQ:SBGI)
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Select Model
Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
▼(-10.99% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:11/08/25
Sinclair Broadcast's overall stock score is driven by significant financial challenges, including high leverage and declining profitability. However, the positive earnings call and strategic outlook provide a counterbalance, suggesting potential for future growth. Technical indicators show bullish momentum, but caution is advised due to overbought signals.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The 7% increase in core revenues indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, suggesting potential for sustained growth.
Station Portfolio Optimization
The acquisition and optimization of partner stations can enhance Sinclair's market presence and operational efficiency, leading to increased EBITDA.
Favorable Regulatory Environment
A favorable regulatory environment may enable strategic mergers and acquisitions, potentially unlocking significant synergies and growth opportunities.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
The high leverage poses financial risk, potentially limiting Sinclair's ability to invest in growth opportunities and affecting long-term financial stability.
Declining Profitability
Ongoing losses and declining profitability can strain resources and hinder Sinclair's ability to invest in strategic initiatives or weather economic downturns.
Challenges in Distribution Revenue
Challenges in distribution revenue can impact Sinclair's overall revenue streams, affecting its ability to maintain or grow its market position.
Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$979.75M
Dividend Yield6.52%
Average Volume (3M)314.60K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.36
Revenue Growth-0.98%
EPS Growth82.16%
CountryUS
Employees7,200
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryEntertainment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.55
Shares Outstanding45,908,530
10 Day Avg. Volume275,673
30 Day Avg. Volume314,595
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.82
Price to Sales (P/S)0.30
P/FCF Ratio75.84
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.78
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.40
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.89
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.97
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.00Price Target Upside41.19% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.51B
Sinclair Broadcast Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionSinclair, Inc. owns and operates as a broadcast television company. The Company engages consumers on multiple platforms with relevant and compelling news, entertainment, and sports content, as well as provides advertisers and businesses efficient means and value to connect with our mass audiences.
How the Company Makes MoneySinclair Broadcast Group generates revenue primarily through advertising sales, which is a substantial portion of its earnings. Local and national advertisers purchase airtime on Sinclair's television stations to promote their products and services, creating a consistent revenue stream. Additionally, the company earns money from affiliate fees paid by the major networks for broadcasting their content. Sinclair also generates revenue through retransmission consent fees, which cable and satellite providers pay for the rights to carry its television stations. Recent expansions into digital platforms and partnerships with streaming services further enhance its revenue opportunities. Furthermore, Sinclair's investment in original content production and syndication adds to its revenue base, allowing the company to monetize its programming across various channels.
Sinclair Broadcast Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a generally constructive operational and strategic picture: core advertising showed clear momentum (Q4 core +14% as-reported) and management delivered above‑guidance quarterly and full‑year results while taking concrete steps to improve the balance sheet (refinancing, AR facility, $866M cash, ~$1.5B liquidity). Ventures generated meaningful cash and the company provided a confident 2026 guide (revenue $3.4B–$3.54B; adj. EBITDA $700M–$740M). Key risks remain cyclical political revenue variability (large Q4 YoY declines), elevated leverage (total net leverage ~5.3x) and distribution/MVPD churn, though management intends to use 2026 political cash and continued cost discipline to drive deleveraging. On balance, the positives around core business recovery, liquidity and a clear deleveraging plan outweigh the near-term cyclical and leverage headwinds.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Full-Year 2025 Financial Outperformance
Total revenue of $3.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $483 million for 2025, both above the midpoint of guidance, demonstrating full-year outperformance and cash generation.
Fourth Quarter Outperformance vs Guidance
Q4 2025 revenue of $836 million and adjusted EBITDA of $168 million, both above guidance (adjusted EBITDA exceeded the high end), reflecting stronger-than-expected quarter results.
Core Advertising Momentum
Core advertising grew 14% year-over-year in Q4 (5% pro forma year-over-year), with Local Media core advertising up 4% as-reported and 6% pro forma—underpinned by live sports and Digital Remedy contribution.
Ventures Liquidity and Realizations
Ventures generated $104 million of cash distributions in 2025 (including $75 million of exit proceeds) and ended the year with $465 million in cash, improving optionality for separation planning and capital allocation.
Balance Sheet and Liquidity Improvements
Completed comprehensive debt refinancing, retired final $89 million of 2027 notes, established a $375 million AR facility, ended year with $866 million consolidated cash and ~ $1.5 billion total liquidity; nearest material maturity pushed to December 2029.
Operational Progress and Synergies
Closed 15 partner station acquisitions and expect approximately $30 million of annualized run-rate synergies from JSA/LMA buy-ins by the second half of 2026, supporting long‑term earnings power.
Tennis Segment Strength
Tennis segment revenue increased to $62 million from $57 million (+~9%); core advertising +20%; direct-to-consumer subscribers +25%; minutes viewed +12%; adjusted EBITDA +10% to $21 million.
2026 Financial Guidance
Management guided 2026 total revenue $3.4B–$3.54B, core advertising $1.26B–$1.30B, distribution $1.72B–$1.79B, political advertising of at least $333M, and adjusted EBITDA $700M–$740M—signaling expected recovery and deleveraging focus.
Negative Updates
Year-Over-Year Q4 Revenue and EBITDA Decline (Cyclical Political Impact)
Q4 2025 revenue declined to $836 million from $1.0 billion a year earlier (≈ -16.4%) and adjusted EBITDA fell to $168 million from $330 million (≈ -49.1%), primarily due to the absence of large political revenues ($203M in prior-year quarter vs $14M in Q4 2025).
Elevated Leverage Remains a Constraint
Total Sinclair Television Group debt was $4.4 billion at year-end with total net leverage of 5.3x (net first lien leverage 3.9x; STG net first out first lien 1.5x), indicating continued high leverage despite improved maturity profile.
Distribution Revenue Pressure and MVPD Churn
Distribution revenue declined ~1% company-wide and ~2% in Local Media year-over-year, driven by MVPD subscriber churn and divestiture of four markets; distribution remains a headwind despite signs of moderation.
Dependence on Political Cycles for Deleveraging
Management plans to use political cash windows (2026 midterms and 2028 cycle) to materially reduce net debt—highlighting reliance on cyclical political revenue (political baseline guided to at least $333M for 2026).
Incomplete Realization of JSA/LMA Synergies
JSA/LMA buy-ins are approximately 70% complete and expected to deliver $30 million of run-rate synergies by H2 2026—benefits are not yet fully realized and timing risk remains.
Interest Expense Headwind
Net interest expense guidance for 2026 is $300 million to $310 million, representing a meaningful ongoing cost burden that will offset some operating improvements until leverage declines.
Company Guidance
Sinclair guided to 2026 full‑year results of total revenue $3.40–$3.54 billion, distribution revenue $1.72–$1.79 billion, core advertising $1.26–$1.30 billion and political advertising of at least $333 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $700–$740 million; capital expenditures are expected to be $75–$80 million, net interest expense $300–$310 million and net cash tax payments $34–$45 million. Management said the guide assumes stable core trends (sports‑heavy calendar), a typical political “crowd out” as political ramps, steady gross distribution revenue with subscriber churn moderating (and guidance reflecting only partner station acquisitions already closed), and realization of roughly $30 million of annualized JSA/LMA buy‑in synergies by the second half of 2026.Sinclair Broadcast Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Sinclair Broadcast faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues and profitability, high leverage, and financial risk. Despite efficient cash flow conversion, negative growth trends and high debt levels pose substantial risks.Income Statement
Sinclair Broadcast's income statement shows a challenging environment with declining revenue and profitability. The TTM data indicates a negative net profit margin of -1.35%, reflecting ongoing losses. Revenue has decreased by 4.14% compared to the previous period, and the gross profit margin has also declined. These factors suggest pressure on the company's ability to generate profit from its operations.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals significant leverage with a high debt-to-equity ratio of 12.23 in the TTM period, indicating financial risk. The return on equity is negative, highlighting the company's struggle to generate returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is low, suggesting limited financial stability and a heavy reliance on debt financing.30
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis shows a mixed picture. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, indicating a decline in cash generation. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.43, suggesting some ability to convert earnings into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively high at 0.92, indicating efficient cash conversion despite net losses.50
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.34B | 3.55B | 3.13B | 3.93B | 6.13B | 5.94B |
| Gross Profit | 1.62B | 1.83B | 1.47B | 1.85B | 1.69B | 3.03B |
| EBITDA | 672.00M | 949.00M | -61.00M | 944.00M | 714.00M | 2.27B |
| Net Income | -45.00M | 310.00M | -291.00M | 2.65B | -414.00M | -2.41B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.57B | 5.88B | 6.08B | 6.70B | 12.54B | 13.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 526.00M | 697.00M | 662.00M | 884.00M | 816.00M | 1.26B |
| Total Debt | 4.24B | 4.28B | 4.35B | 4.44B | 12.58B | 12.78B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.29B | 5.37B | 5.86B | 6.02B | 14.25B | 14.57B |
| Stockholders Equity | 347.00M | 583.00M | 285.00M | 748.00M | -1.77B | -1.27B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 211.00M | 14.00M | 143.00M | 694.00M | 247.00M | 1.39B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 289.00M | 98.00M | 235.00M | 799.00M | 327.00M | 1.55B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -102.00M | 77.00M | 52.00M | -381.00M | -246.00M | -159.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -197.00M | -140.00M | -509.00M | -353.00M | -524.00M | -1.46B |
Sinclair Broadcast Technical Analysis
Negative
16.29
Price Trends
14.96
Negative
14.71
Negative
14.25
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.17
Positive
39.21
Neutral
13.46
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SBGI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.29 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.40, above the 50-day MA of 14.96, and above the 200-day MA of 14.25, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.46 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SBGI.
Sinclair Broadcast Risk Analysis
Sinclair Broadcast disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sinclair Broadcast reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Sinclair Broadcast Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $22.80B | 12.38 | 16.87% | 0.85% | 14.91% | 9.30% | |
69 Neutral | $187.87B | 15.62 | 11.65% | 1.10% | 3.61% | 152.34% | |
68 Neutral | $22.80B | 13.47 | 16.87% | 0.75% | 14.91% | 9.30% | |
68 Neutral | $72.29B | 154.05 | 1.36% | ― | -4.29% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $7.06B | 14.34 | 22.38% | 3.66% | -1.42% | -8.99% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
53 Neutral | $979.75M | -22.05 | -11.81% | 6.52% | -0.98% | 82.16% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
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16.29
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25.74%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.