Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI) AI Stock Analysis

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Sinclair Broadcast

(NASDAQ:SBGI)

Rating:59Neutral

Price Target:

$13.50

▲(2.58%Upside)

Sinclair Broadcast's overall stock score reflects a combination of mixed financial performance and bearish technical signals, despite an attractive valuation and positive aspects from the earnings call. The need for improved profitability and reduced debt is significant. The stock might appeal to value investors due to its low valuation and high dividend yield, but caution is advised given current market conditions.

Positive Factors

Debt Management

Sinclair made significant progress towards removing their impending debt overhang by announcing plans regarding the remainder of the cap structure, pushing out all meaningful maturities until 2029.

Expense Management

Lucy Rutishauser once again pulled the expense vanishing trick, setting the company up well for 2025 and beyond.

Revenue Growth

Net retrans grew at a mid-single-digit pace, remaining on track for Sinclair’s medium-term guidance, while another quarter of better-than-expected cost saves ended up driving EBITDA of $112 million.

Negative Factors

Automotive Sector Challenges

Tougher automotive comparisons and a more uncertain national brand outlook may conspire to limit core growth, with auto potentially getting a double hit from interest rate uncertainty and muted incentive spend.

Expense Guidance

Management did pull their full year media expense guidance, suggesting that the range of revenue outcomes is substantially wider than previously anticipated, and that visibility remains extremely limited.

Growth Uncertainty

Confidence in growth in 2025 continues to be muted, although certain sporting events could help prevent a shrinkage for the full year.

Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$932.95M

Dividend Yield7.6%

Average Volume (3M)410.57K

Price to Earnings (P/E)6.8

Beta (1Y)0.92

Revenue Growth11.62%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees7,200

SectorCommunication Services

Sector Strength90

IndustryEntertainment

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-2.30

Shares Outstanding45,796,486

10 Day Avg. Volume525,639

30 Day Avg. Volume410,566

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio>-0.01

Price to Book (P/B)1.47

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio1.58

Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.99

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.34

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.79

Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.11

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$19.75

Price Target Upside50.08% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering4

Sinclair Broadcast Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSinclair Broadcast Group, Inc. (SBGI) is a diversified media company and leading provider of local news and sports programming in the United States. The company owns and operates a portfolio of television stations across the country, offering content through both traditional broadcast channels and digital platforms. Sinclair also owns regional sports networks and engages in content production, distribution, and licensing, making it a significant player in the media and entertainment industry.

How the Company Makes MoneySinclair Broadcast Group generates revenue primarily through advertising sales and distribution fees. Advertising sales are derived from selling commercial airtime on its television stations and digital platforms, targeting both local and national advertisers. Distribution fees come from retransmission consent agreements, where cable, satellite, and telecommunications companies pay Sinclair to carry its broadcast signals. Additionally, Sinclair earns revenue from its regional sports networks through affiliate fees paid by distributors and advertising sales. The company's content production and licensing operations also contribute to its revenue, though to a lesser extent. Strategic partnerships with sports leagues and other media entities further enhance its revenue potential.

Sinclair Broadcast Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -14.66%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mix of both achievements and challenges. Sinclair highlighted strong core advertising performance, strategic partnerships, and successful refinancing efforts. However, challenges such as distribution revenue falling below expectations, reduced visibility due to macroeconomic uncertainties, and a decline in core advertising revenue were also noted. Despite these challenges, Sinclair's financial position remains strong, supported by lower cash tax payments and successful expense management.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Core Advertising Performance

Sinclair reported strong core advertising performance, with total advertising revenues within the guidance range despite macroeconomic uncertainties.

Distribution Revenue Increase

Distribution revenues increased by $15 million year-over-year, with Charter reducing video subscriber discounts by 55% year-over-year.

Successful Ventures Portfolio Transformation

The Ventures portfolio benefited from $10 million of cash distributions and invested $38 million, including $30 million for an acquisition by Compulse.

Tennis Channel and Strategic Partnerships

Jeff Blackburn was hired as Chairman and CEO of Tennis Channel, with Verizon announced as the first sponsor in a new comprehensive sponsorship package partnership.

Adjusted EBITDA Exceeds Guidance

Adjusted EBITDA exceeded the high end of the guidance range by approximately $9 million, driven by favorable SG&A and promotional expenses.

Strong Liquidity and Lower Cash Tax Payments

Sinclair forecasts much lower cash tax payments of $121 million, $95 million lower than prior guidance due to revised estimates.

Refinancing and Debt Repurchase

Completed comprehensive refinancing and repurchased $66 million of STG's 2027 notes at a discount.

Negative Updates

Distribution Revenue Below Expectations

Despite an increase, distribution revenues came in $2 million below guidance due to subscriber churn not improving as expected.

Core Advertising Revenue Decline

Core advertising revenues were down 4.5% year-over-year, with continued softness in core advertising categories expected.

Reduced Visibility and Uncertainty

The company cited macroeconomic and tariff-related uncertainty, causing reduced visibility and a wide range of potential outcomes for the second half of the year.

Continued Churn in Subscriber Base

Subscriber churn continues to moderate but at a slower pace than anticipated, affecting distribution revenue.

Lower Year-Over-Year Media Revenues

Media revenues fell by approximately $22 million year-over-year due to lower political advertising revenues and the absence of material diamond sports management fees.

Company Guidance

During Sinclair, Inc.'s First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance highlighting several key metrics. Total media revenue was reported to be in line with expectations, driven by strong core advertising performances. Total advertising revenues met the guidance range, excluding the impact of an acquisition by Compulse. Distribution revenues increased by $15 million year-over-year, although they were $2 million below the guidance due to moderated subscriber churn improvements. Media expenses were better than expected, leading to adjusted EBITDA comfortably exceeding the high end of the guidance range. For the second quarter, media revenues are expected to be lower year-over-year due to significantly lower political revenues and some softness in core advertising categories. Local Media core advertising revenue is anticipated to decline by approximately 2% at the midpoint, while distribution revenues are expected to increase by 1% year-over-year. The consolidated adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter is projected to be between $91 million and $107 million. The company did not provide a full-year media expense line item due to reduced visibility amid macroeconomic and tariff-related uncertainties.

Sinclair Broadcast Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Sinclair Broadcast exhibits a mixed financial performance. The company shows efficient cost management and strong cash generation capabilities. However, challenges include declining revenues, high leverage, and low net profit margins. Improving profitability and reducing debt are crucial for enhancing financial stability.

Income Statement

Positive

Sinclair Broadcast's TTM figures show some challenges with revenue slightly declining by 0.62% compared to the previous annual period. Gross profit margin in the TTM stands at 47.28%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 3.72%, suggesting potential profitability issues. EBIT and EBITDA margins are at 14.89% and 22.87%, respectively, showing reasonable operational efficiency despite competitive pressures.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reflects high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 9.95 in the TTM, indicating significant reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio is low at 7.54%, which could pose a risk in terms of financial stability. Return on equity is moderate at 30.05%, suggesting decent profitability relative to equity despite high debt levels.

Cash Flow

Neutral

The cash flow statement indicates some positive aspects with a free cash flow growth rate of 957.14% in the TTM, highlighting strong cash generation capabilities. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.15, showing that operational cash generation is slightly ahead of net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.13, indicating adequate conversion of net income into free cash flow.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.53B	3.55B	3.13B	3.93B	6.13B	5.94B
	Gross Profit
1.67B	1.83B	1.47B	1.94B	1.84B	3.21B
	EBIT
525.00M	551.00M	-331.00M	486.00M	55.00M	1.67B
	EBITDA
806.00M	1.02B	-45.00M	4.65B	3.15B	-655.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
131.00M	310.00M	-291.00M	2.65B	-326.00M	-2.43B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
631.00M	697.00M	662.00M	884.00M	816.00M	1.26B
	Total Assets
5.78B	5.88B	6.08B	6.70B	12.54B	13.38B
	Total Debt
4.34B	4.28B	4.35B	4.44B	12.58B	12.78B
	Net Debt
3.71B	3.58B	3.69B	3.56B	11.76B	11.52B
	Total Liabilities
5.41B	5.37B	5.86B	6.02B	14.25B	14.57B
	Stockholders Equity
436.00M	583.00M	285.00M	748.00M	-1.77B	-1.27B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
148.00M	14.00M	143.00M	694.00M	247.00M	1.39B
	Operating Cash Flow
150.00M	98.00M	235.00M	799.00M	327.00M	1.55B
	Investing Cash Flow
-98.00M	77.00M	52.00M	-381.00M	-246.00M	-159.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-116.00M	-140.00M	-509.00M	-353.00M	-524.00M	-1.46B

Sinclair Broadcast Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price13.16

Price Trends

50DMA

14.16

Negative

100DMA

14.35

Negative

200DMA

14.85

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.36

Positive

RSI

38.80

Neutral

STOCH

42.16

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SBGI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.83, below the 50-day MA of 14.16, and below the 200-day MA of 14.85, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SBGI.

Sinclair Broadcast Risk Analysis

Sinclair Broadcast disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sinclair Broadcast reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Sinclair Broadcast Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NXST	80 Outperform	$5.20B	8.48	28.46%	4.32%	8.00%	71.49%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$14.75B	5.86	-3.99%	6.11%	2.67%	-30.24%
SBGI	59 Neutral	$932.95M	6.79	34.07%	7.60%	11.62%	―
AMCX	57 Neutral	$313.59M	13.94	-25.83%	―	-8.14%	-258.98%
PARA	56 Neutral	$8.67B	―	-28.56%	1.68%	-4.50%	-898.86%

* Communication Services Sector Average

Performance Comparison

SBGI

Sinclair Broadcast

13.00

2.32

21.72%

AMCX

AMC Networks

6.24

-9.47

-60.28%

PARA

Paramount Global Class B

11.89

1.91

19.14%

NXST

Nexstar Media Group

166.54

22.38

15.52%

Sinclair Broadcast Corporate Events

Shareholder Meetings

Sinclair Broadcast Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting

Neutral

Jun 6, 2025

On June 5, 2025, Sinclair, Inc. held its annual stockholders meeting where four key proposals were voted upon. The stockholders elected nine directors for a term expiring in 2026, ratified PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent auditors for 2025, approved executive compensation on a non-binding advisory basis, and amended the company’s Articles of Incorporation to expand the definition of ‘Permitted Transferees’ of Class B Common Stock.

The most recent analyst rating on (SBGI) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sinclair Broadcast stock, see the SBGI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.