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Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBGI)
NASDAQ:SBGI
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Sinclair Broadcast
(NASDAQ:SBGI)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$13.50
▲(1.89% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/28/26
The score is held back primarily by weak and volatile financial performance combined with very high leverage. Offsetting factors include improving forward outlook and liquidity initiatives discussed on the earnings call, plus a constructive technical trend and a high dividend yield despite loss-making earnings.
Positive Factors
Improved liquidity and maturity profile
Refinancing and stronger cash reserves materially reduce near-term rollover risk and give management time to execute its deleveraging plan. A pushed-out nearest maturity and an AR facility provide durable liquidity to fund operations, capital spending, and strategic actions over the next 2–3 years.
Core advertising momentum
Sustained core ad growth driven by live sports and digital capabilities signals recovering demand and stronger monetization. A structurally healthier advertising engine improves recurring revenue visibility, supports EBITDA expansion, and reduces reliance on one-off cash events over medium term.
Ventures and segment diversification generating cash
Meaningful cash from ventures and growing segment businesses provides non-core liquidity and optionality for deleveraging or reinvestment. Recurring distributions and realized exits diversify cash generation beyond linear ad and distribution revenues, improving resilience over multiple cycles.
Negative Factors
Very elevated leverage
Extremely high leverage materially constrains strategic flexibility and amplifies earnings volatility. Large debt balances increase interest and refinancing risk, limiting ability to absorb cyclical ad shocks or fund growth without using one-off cash sources or asset sales, sustaining long-term financial fragility.
Volatile profitability and compressed margins
Large swings in revenue and margins reduce predictability of cash flow and weaken confidence in sustainable earnings power. Margin compression and periodic losses make deleveraging harder, raise refinancing costs, and constrain reinvestment, creating a persistent execution risk over multiple quarters.
Dependence on political advertising cycles
Relying on episodic political ad windfalls to materially reduce debt embeds structural cyclicality into the balance sheet plan. If political spending underperforms or timing shifts, the company may struggle to meet deleveraging targets, leaving leverage and interest burden elevated across cycles.
Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$948.95M
Dividend Yield6.52%
Average Volume (3M)461.17K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.42
Revenue Growth-0.98%
EPS Growth82.16%
CountryUS
Employees7,200
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryEntertainment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.55
Shares Outstanding47,863,796
10 Day Avg. Volume503,238
30 Day Avg. Volume461,171
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.07
Price to Book (P/B)2.39
Price to Sales (P/S)0.33
P/FCF Ratio9.20
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.81
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.44
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.22
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.59
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.00Price Target Upside73.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.50B
Sinclair Broadcast Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionSinclair, Inc. owns and operates as a broadcast television company. The Company engages consumers on multiple platforms with relevant and compelling news, entertainment, and sports content, as well as provides advertisers and businesses efficient means and value to connect with our mass audiences.
How the Company Makes MoneySinclair primarily generates revenue from its local television station operations and related media activities. A major portion of revenue comes from advertising sales (selling commercial time across its local stations and associated digital properties), which includes both local advertising from businesses in station markets and national advertising placed by brands and agencies. Another significant stream is distribution revenue, commonly referred to as retransmission consent and carriage fees, which are payments from multichannel video programming distributors (e.g., cable, satellite, and virtual MVPDs) in exchange for the right to carry Sinclair-operated local broadcast signals; these fees are generally governed by multi-year contracts and can be affected by renewal timing and negotiations.
Sinclair also earns revenue tied to its relationships with major broadcast networks via network affiliation agreements: its stations carry network programming (e.g., prime-time entertainment and sports) and monetize it through advertising, while economics can vary by affiliation and market. In addition, the company monetizes digital and content-related activities (such as station websites, streaming/digital ad inventory, and content production/distribution) through digital advertising and other commercial arrangements where applicable. Sinclair’s results are influenced by factors such as political advertising cycles (which can meaningfully increase ad demand in election years), overall advertising market conditions, audience viewership, and the terms and outcomes of retransmission consent negotiations and renewals. Specific material partnerships or revenue shares beyond these general mechanisms: null.
Sinclair Broadcast Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a generally constructive operational and strategic picture: core advertising showed clear momentum (Q4 core +14% as-reported) and management delivered above‑guidance quarterly and full‑year results while taking concrete steps to improve the balance sheet (refinancing, AR facility, $866M cash, ~$1.5B liquidity). Ventures generated meaningful cash and the company provided a confident 2026 guide (revenue $3.4B–$3.54B; adj. EBITDA $700M–$740M). Key risks remain cyclical political revenue variability (large Q4 YoY declines), elevated leverage (total net leverage ~5.3x) and distribution/MVPD churn, though management intends to use 2026 political cash and continued cost discipline to drive deleveraging. On balance, the positives around core business recovery, liquidity and a clear deleveraging plan outweigh the near-term cyclical and leverage headwinds.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Full-Year 2025 Financial Outperformance
Total revenue of $3.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $483 million for 2025, both above the midpoint of guidance, demonstrating full-year outperformance and cash generation.
Fourth Quarter Outperformance vs Guidance
Q4 2025 revenue of $836 million and adjusted EBITDA of $168 million, both above guidance (adjusted EBITDA exceeded the high end), reflecting stronger-than-expected quarter results.
Core Advertising Momentum
Core advertising grew 14% year-over-year in Q4 (5% pro forma year-over-year), with Local Media core advertising up 4% as-reported and 6% pro forma—underpinned by live sports and Digital Remedy contribution.
Ventures Liquidity and Realizations
Ventures generated $104 million of cash distributions in 2025 (including $75 million of exit proceeds) and ended the year with $465 million in cash, improving optionality for separation planning and capital allocation.
Balance Sheet and Liquidity Improvements
Completed comprehensive debt refinancing, retired final $89 million of 2027 notes, established a $375 million AR facility, ended year with $866 million consolidated cash and ~ $1.5 billion total liquidity; nearest material maturity pushed to December 2029.
Operational Progress and Synergies
Closed 15 partner station acquisitions and expect approximately $30 million of annualized run-rate synergies from JSA/LMA buy-ins by the second half of 2026, supporting long‑term earnings power.
Tennis Segment Strength
Tennis segment revenue increased to $62 million from $57 million (+~9%); core advertising +20%; direct-to-consumer subscribers +25%; minutes viewed +12%; adjusted EBITDA +10% to $21 million.
2026 Financial Guidance
Management guided 2026 total revenue $3.4B–$3.54B, core advertising $1.26B–$1.30B, distribution $1.72B–$1.79B, political advertising of at least $333M, and adjusted EBITDA $700M–$740M—signaling expected recovery and deleveraging focus.
Negative Updates
Year-Over-Year Q4 Revenue and EBITDA Decline (Cyclical Political Impact)
Q4 2025 revenue declined to $836 million from $1.0 billion a year earlier (≈ -16.4%) and adjusted EBITDA fell to $168 million from $330 million (≈ -49.1%), primarily due to the absence of large political revenues ($203M in prior-year quarter vs $14M in Q4 2025).
Elevated Leverage Remains a Constraint
Total Sinclair Television Group debt was $4.4 billion at year-end with total net leverage of 5.3x (net first lien leverage 3.9x; STG net first out first lien 1.5x), indicating continued high leverage despite improved maturity profile.
Distribution Revenue Pressure and MVPD Churn
Distribution revenue declined ~1% company-wide and ~2% in Local Media year-over-year, driven by MVPD subscriber churn and divestiture of four markets; distribution remains a headwind despite signs of moderation.
Dependence on Political Cycles for Deleveraging
Management plans to use political cash windows (2026 midterms and 2028 cycle) to materially reduce net debt—highlighting reliance on cyclical political revenue (political baseline guided to at least $333M for 2026).
Incomplete Realization of JSA/LMA Synergies
JSA/LMA buy-ins are approximately 70% complete and expected to deliver $30 million of run-rate synergies by H2 2026—benefits are not yet fully realized and timing risk remains.
Interest Expense Headwind
Net interest expense guidance for 2026 is $300 million to $310 million, representing a meaningful ongoing cost burden that will offset some operating improvements until leverage declines.
Company Guidance
Sinclair guided to 2026 full‑year results of total revenue $3.40–$3.54 billion, distribution revenue $1.72–$1.79 billion, core advertising $1.26–$1.30 billion and political advertising of at least $333 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $700–$740 million; capital expenditures are expected to be $75–$80 million, net interest expense $300–$310 million and net cash tax payments $34–$45 million. Management said the guide assumes stable core trends (sports‑heavy calendar), a typical political “crowd out” as political ramps, steady gross distribution revenue with subscriber churn moderating (and guidance reflecting only partner station acquisitions already closed), and realization of roughly $30 million of annualized JSA/LMA buy‑in synergies by the second half of 2026.Sinclair Broadcast Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Operating results and cash generation have been uneven, with 2025 returning to net losses and materially weaker margins versus 2024. The balance sheet is the biggest constraint: very high leverage (debt-to-equity ~10x) amplifies earnings volatility and limits flexibility despite some improvement versus earlier stressed years.Income Statement
Profitability has been volatile. Revenue fell in 2025 (annual: -5.0%) and swung from a solid profit in 2024 (net margin ~8.7%) back to a loss in 2025 (net margin ~-3.5%), with operating profitability also compressing (EBITDA margin ~17.8% in 2025 vs ~26.7% in 2024). Gross margin also declined meaningfully in 2025 (~36% vs ~52% in 2024), indicating weaker underlying economics and/or less favorable mix. While prior years show the business can generate attractive margins in better periods, the recurring swings in earnings and growth reduce confidence in stability.46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage is the key constraint. Total debt remains high (about $4.5B in 2025) versus a relatively small equity base (~$443M), translating to very elevated leverage (debt-to-equity ~10.2x in 2025; ~7.3x in 2024). Equity has improved versus earlier years that showed negative equity, but returns to shareholders have been inconsistent (negative return on equity in 2025 following strong positive in 2024), reflecting earnings volatility on a levered balance sheet. The balance sheet has improved from the stressed 2020–2021 structure, but leverage still leaves limited room for execution missteps.28
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash generation is positive but inconsistent. Operating cash flow was positive in 2025 (~$189M) and free cash flow was also positive (~$189M), but free cash flow declined year over year (about -10.4%). Cash flow relative to earnings is hard to rely on given net losses in some periods; in 2024, free cash flow was low relative to profits (free cash flow of ~$14M on net income of ~$310M). Operating cash flow coverage has generally been below 1x in most years (except 2020 and 2022), suggesting cash generation can be uneven versus the company’s obligations and reported earnings power.41
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.17B | 3.55B | 3.13B | 3.93B | 6.13B |
| Gross Profit | 1.15B | 1.83B | 1.47B | 1.85B | 1.69B |
| EBITDA | 565.00M | 949.00M | -61.00M | 944.00M | 714.00M |
| Net Income | -112.00M | 310.00M | -291.00M | 2.65B | -414.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.95B | 5.88B | 6.08B | 6.70B | 12.54B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 866.00M | 697.00M | 662.00M | 884.00M | 816.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.52B | 4.28B | 4.35B | 4.44B | 12.58B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.58B | 5.37B | 5.86B | 6.02B | 14.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 443.00M | 583.00M | 285.00M | 748.00M | -1.77B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 115.00M | 14.00M | 143.00M | 694.00M | 247.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 189.00M | 98.00M | 235.00M | 799.00M | 327.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -120.00M | 77.00M | 52.00M | -381.00M | -246.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 100.00M | -140.00M | -509.00M | -353.00M | -524.00M |
Sinclair Broadcast Technical Analysis
Negative
13.25
Price Trends
14.52
Negative
14.71
Negative
14.07
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.21
Positive
36.08
Neutral
13.21
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SBGI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.52, below the 50-day MA of 14.52, and below the 200-day MA of 14.07, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.21 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SBGI.
Sinclair Broadcast Risk Analysis
Sinclair Broadcast disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sinclair Broadcast reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Sinclair Broadcast Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $175.73B | 21.11 | 11.35% | 1.10% | 3.61% | 152.34% | |
68 Neutral | $23.27B | 34.54 | 16.22% | 0.75% | 14.91% | 9.30% | |
67 Neutral | $6.76B | 56.54 | 4.92% | 3.66% | -1.42% | -8.99% | |
66 Neutral | $23.27B | 30.69 | 16.22% | 0.85% | 14.91% | 9.30% | |
62 Neutral | $68.52B | 98.11 | 2.05% | ― | -4.29% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
58 Neutral | $948.95M | -9.44 | -28.23% | 6.52% | -0.98% | 82.16% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
SBGI
Sinclair Broadcast
13.25
-2.41
-15.41%
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52.11
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52.02
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159.44%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.