Nexstar Media Group (NXST)
NASDAQ:NXST
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Nexstar Media Group
(NASDAQ:NXST)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$183.00
â–¼(-5.72% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/03/26
The score is primarily held up by strong cash-flow generation and constructive 2026 EBITDA guidance, but it is weighed down by a sharply weaker latest earnings period, meaningful leverage, and bearish technicals with the stock trading well below major moving averages; the high dividend helps offset an elevated P/E only modestly.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent operating and free cash flow through 2020–2025 provides durable internal funding for dividends, buybacks, capex and M&A. Resilient cash conversion in 2025 despite earnings decline indicates high-quality cash generation that supports debt service and strategic optionality over months.
Negative Factors
Meaningful leverage
Elevated debt levels and multi‑year leverage constrain financial flexibility and raise refinancing and covenant sensitivity, especially after sizable M&A. High fixed obligations reduce room for incremental investment and make dividends, buybacks and downside protection more contingent on steady cash flow.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent operating and free cash flow through 2020–2025 provides durable internal funding for dividends, buybacks, capex and M&A. Resilient cash conversion in 2025 despite earnings decline indicates high-quality cash generation that supports debt service and strategic optionality over months.
Read all positive factors
Nexstar Media Group (NXST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.96B
Dividend Yield3.66%
Average Volume (3M)457.18K
Price to Earnings (P/E)56.5
Beta (1Y)0.50
Revenue Growth-1.42%
EPS Growth-8.99%
CountryUS
Employees11,773
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryEntertainment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-5.63
Shares Outstanding30,327,997
10 Day Avg. Volume484,266
30 Day Avg. Volume457,177
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.66
Price to Book (P/B)2.99
Price to Sales (P/S)1.25
P/FCF Ratio8.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.53
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.38
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.44
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$270.00Price Target Upside39.10% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)25.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.43B
Nexstar Media Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nexstar Media Group, Inc., a television broadcasting and digital media company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and operation of television stations and interactive community websites and digital media services in the United States. The c...
How the Company Makes Money
Nexstar primarily makes money by monetizing audience reach across its television stations, national network operations, and digital properties. Its key revenue streams include: (1) Advertising revenue: Nexstar sells advertising time on its local b...
Nexstar Media Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: material near‑term revenue and cash‑flow pressure driven by the absence of 2024 election‑period political advertising led to significant YoY declines in Q4 advertising revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow. Offsetting these short‑term headwinds are several strategic and operational positives — strong audience growth at The CW and NewsNation, continued digital revenue acceleration (expected to exceed national ad revenue in 2026), successful distribution and affiliation renewals, disciplined cost‑reduction initiatives, and a constructive guidance range for 2026 adjusted EBITDA ($1.95B–$2.05B). The company is also actively progressing the TEGNA transaction (submitted HSR and FCC filings) which management views as transformational but that brings one‑time costs and near‑term cash deployment. Overall, the narrative is one of strategic execution and positioning for growth amid temporary cyclical weakness tied to the election advertising timing.Positive Updates
2026 Stand‑alone Adjusted EBITDA Guidance
Nexstar provided stand-alone pre‑TEGNA full‑year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion, signaling management confidence in near‑term profitability and cash generation assuming current assumptions.
Negative Updates
Q4 Net Revenue Decline
Q4 2025 net revenue was $1.29 billion, down 13.4% year‑over‑year, largely driven by a material decline in political advertising versus the prior‑year election quarter.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
2026 Stand‑alone Adjusted EBITDA Guidance
Nexstar provided stand-alone pre‑TEGNA full‑year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion, signaling management confidence in near‑term profitability and cash generation assuming current assumptions.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Nexstar reiterated stand‑alone 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.95–$2.05 billion, expecting distribution revenue to grow low single digits on a gross basis and mid‑single digits net (having renewed agreements covering >60% of subscribers in 2025 and with ~30% of subscribers up for renewal in 2026), and forecasting political advertising to represent a low double‑digit share of broadcast political spend (industry cycle forecast $10.8 billion total political, broadcast ≈$5.28 billion) with ~20% of political revenue in H1 and ~80% in H2; management expects nonpolitical advertising to be roughly flat in Q1, digital revenue to surpass national advertising revenue in 2026, The CW to cut losses another ~30% in 2026 and reach profitability in Q4, CapEx of $125–$130 million for the year ($30–$35M in Q1), full‑year cash interest of ~$355–$365M (Q1 ~ $85M), cash taxes of ~$315–$325M (Q1 state tax ~$2.6M), programming payments in excess of amortization ~$25–$30M (≈$1M in Q1), mandatory debt amortization ≈$111M, pension/DB contributions ≈$36M, an anticipated dividend ≈$228M, and balance‑sheet metrics of $6.3B debt, $280M cash, first‑lien covenant ratio 1.71x (vs covenant 4.25x) and total net leverage 3.09x.Nexstar Media Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.95B | 5.41B | 4.93B | 5.21B | 4.65B |
| Gross Profit | 1.93B | 3.19B | 2.81B | 3.21B | 2.79B |
| EBITDA | 1.31B | 2.21B | 1.79B | 2.22B | 1.97B |
| Net Income | 109.00M | 722.00M | 346.00M | 971.00M | 834.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 10.99B | 11.47B | 12.08B | 12.68B | 13.26B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 280.00M | 144.00M | 147.00M | 204.00M | 190.90M |
| Total Debt | 6.86B | 6.81B | 7.13B | 7.00B | 7.46B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.92B | 9.20B | 9.77B | 9.91B | 10.41B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.06B | 2.26B | 2.30B | 2.74B | 2.85B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 743.00M | 1.10B | 850.00M | 1.25B | 1.06B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 891.00M | 1.25B | 999.00M | 1.40B | 1.22B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -173.00M | -102.00M | -173.00M | 125.00M | -232.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -582.00M | -1.15B | -899.00M | -1.51B | -945.00M |
Nexstar Media Group Technical Analysis
Negative
194.11
Price Trends
221.88
Negative
211.60
Negative
201.21
Negative
Market Momentum
-10.94
Negative
44.23
Neutral
77.43
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NXST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 194.11 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 200.18, below the 50-day MA of 221.88, and below the 200-day MA of 201.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -10.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NXST.
Nexstar Media Group Risk Analysis
Nexstar Media Group disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nexstar Media Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nexstar Media Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $14.78B | 31.10 | 12.52% | 0.76% | -16.36% | 29.53% | |
68 Neutral | $25.60B | 34.54 | 16.22% | 0.75% | 14.91% | 9.30% | |
64 Neutral | $25.60B | 30.69 | 16.22% | 0.85% | 14.91% | 9.30% | |
63 Neutral | $14.78B | 21.79 | 12.52% | 0.67% | -16.36% | 29.53% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
58 Neutral | $1.16B | 2.45 | -28.23% | 6.52% | -0.98% | 82.16% | |
54 Neutral | $5.96B | 56.54 | 4.92% | 3.66% | -1.42% | -8.99% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
NXST
Nexstar Media Group
196.59
54.74
38.59%
NWSA
News Corp
25.33
-0.15
-0.57%
SBGI
Sinclair Broadcast
16.24
3.17
24.22%
NWS
News Class B
29.15
-0.40
-1.35%
FOXA
Fox
63.66
15.86
33.17%
FOX
Fox
57.05
12.81
28.96%
Nexstar Media Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Nexstar Media Completes $1.7 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Apr 2, 2026
On April 2, 2026, Nexstar Media Inc., a unit of Nexstar Media Group, completed a private offering of $1.725 billion of 7.250% senior unsecured notes due 2034 to qualified institutional buyers and certain non-U.S. investors. The company used the pr...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Nexstar Announces Major Notes Offering for TEGNA Acquisition
Positive
Mar 20, 2026
On March 20, 2026, Nexstar Media Group announced that its subsidiary Nexstar Media Inc. plans a private offering of $3.39 billion in senior secured notes due 2033 and $1.725 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2034, guaranteed by Nexstar, Missio...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Nexstar Completes TEGNA Acquisition, Expanding Broadcast Footprint
Positive
Mar 20, 2026
On March 19, 2026, Nexstar Media Group completed its previously announced acquisition of TEGNA Inc., following approvals from the Federal Communications Commission and the U.S. Department of Justice, and structured the deal financing through a $2....
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsM&A Transactions
Nexstar Maintains Dividend While Prioritizing TEGNA Acquisition
Positive
Feb 3, 2026
On January 30, 2026, Nexstar Media Group announced that its board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.86 per share on its common stock, payable on February 27, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 13, 2026. The board chose to maintai...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.