Nexstar Media Group (NXST)
NASDAQ:NXST
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Nexstar Media Group
(NASDAQ:NXST)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$200.00
â–¼(-0.39% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/07/26
NXST scores mid-range driven by strong cash-flow generation but weighed down by high leverage and recent earnings volatility. Technicals are weak (price below key moving averages, negative MACD), while the dividend helps valuation appeal; the latest earnings call is constructive on cash flow/deleveraging and CW progress but highlights meaningful litigation and advertising headwinds.
Positive Factors
Strong Free Cash Flow
Consistent high operating cash flow and material free cash flow provide durable internal funding for dividends, capex, and gradual debt paydown. This cash-generation cushion helps the business weather ad cycles and supports strategic reinvestment without immediate reliance on external financing.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage Post-Acquisition
Substantially higher post-close debt materially raises refinancing, interest-rate, and covenant risks. Elevated leverage constrains financial flexibility for M&A, programming investment, and aggressive deleveraging will take multiple quarters, limiting optional capital allocation choices.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Free Cash Flow
Consistent high operating cash flow and material free cash flow provide durable internal funding for dividends, capex, and gradual debt paydown. This cash-generation cushion helps the business weather ad cycles and supports strategic reinvestment without immediate reliance on external financing.
Read all positive factors
Nexstar Media Group (NXST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.98B
Dividend Yield3.66%
Average Volume (3M)470.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth-8.45%
EPS Growth-86.54%
CountryUS
Employees11,773
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryEntertainment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.03
Shares Outstanding30,327,997
10 Day Avg. Volume485,018
30 Day Avg. Volume470,824
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.66
Price to Book (P/B)2.99
Price to Sales (P/S)1.25
P/FCF Ratio8.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.54
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.39
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.45
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$274.00Price Target Upside36.47% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)24.65
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.42B
Nexstar Media Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nexstar Media Group, Inc., a television broadcasting and digital media company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and operation of television stations and interactive community websites and digital media services in the United States. The c...
How the Company Makes Money
Nexstar primarily makes money by monetizing audience reach across its television stations, national network operations, and digital properties. Its key revenue streams include: (1) Advertising revenue: Nexstar sells advertising time on its local b...
Nexstar Media Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted significant operational and financial achievements — record consolidated revenue, strong adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, rapid audience growth at NewsNation, progress toward CW profitability, and strategic digital distribution deals — alongside disciplined capital allocation and early deleveraging actions. However, material risk remains from ongoing litigation that requires TEGNA to operate separately, elevated post‑acquisition leverage and higher interest/one‑time costs, and a softer near‑term advertising backdrop with some digital segment weakness. Overall, the positives in quarterly performance, audience and distribution momentum, and clear capital‑return and deleveraging priorities outweigh the near‑term legal and advertising headwinds, though legal uncertainty and debt levels are meaningful risks to monitor.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong Profitability
Consolidated Q1 net revenue of $1.4 billion, up $162 million or 13.1% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA of $470 million (33.7% margin), up $89 million versus Q1 2025. Consolidated adjusted free cash flow of $420 million versus $348 million a year ago; legacy Nexstar excl. TEGNA generated $439 million of adjusted EBITDA and $400 million of adjusted FCF.
Negative Updates
Ongoing Litigation and Hold‑Separate Order
DIRECTV and several state AGs filed suit seeking to block the TEGNA transaction; a preliminary injunction/hold-separate order is in place requiring TEGNA to operate separately. Multiple court proceedings underway (Ninth Circuit appeal, District Court trial, D.C. Circuit challenge to FCC approval), creating legal uncertainty and limiting integration and forward guidance.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong Profitability
Consolidated Q1 net revenue of $1.4 billion, up $162 million or 13.1% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA of $470 million (33.7% margin), up $89 million versus Q1 2025. Consolidated adjusted free cash flow of $420 million versus $348 million a year ago; legacy Nexstar excl. TEGNA generated $439 million of adjusted EBITDA and $400 million of adjusted FCF.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Because of the pending litigation management said forward-looking guidance will be limited, but they provided near-term metrics and priorities: Q2 CapEx is projected at about $45M, Q2 cash taxes about $152M, Q2 programming payments are expected to be roughly $5M in excess of amortization, and combined non‑political advertising is expected to decline mid‑single‑digits (overall digital up mid‑single‑digits in Q1); run‑rate quarterly interest expense is about $187.5M (subject to SOFR and debt paydown). They reiterated The CW is on track to be profitable by Q4 2026 and to reduce full‑year losses by more than 30%, expect a favorable 2026 political season after combined Q1 political revenue of $78M (reported $46M), and emphasized capital allocation will first satisfy mandatory obligations, pension and the 1.86¢/share quarterly dividend (3.7% yield) and then optionally repay debt — having repaid $182M through April 30 (and $150M Term Loan A subsequent to quarter end); Q1 consolidated results cited for context were net revenue $1.4B, adjusted EBITDA $470M (33.7% margin) and adjusted FCF $420M (ex‑TEGNA: adj. EBITDA $439M, adj. FCF $400M), with total debt $12.1B, cash $379M, total net leverage 3.84x and an annualized first‑lien covenant ratio of 2.94x (covenant 4.75x).Nexstar Media Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.95B | 5.41B | 4.93B | 5.21B | 4.65B |
| Gross Profit | 1.93B | 3.19B | 2.81B | 3.21B | 2.79B |
| EBITDA | 1.31B | 2.21B | 1.79B | 2.22B | 1.97B |
| Net Income | 109.00M | 722.00M | 346.00M | 971.00M | 834.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 10.99B | 11.47B | 12.08B | 12.68B | 13.26B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 280.00M | 144.00M | 147.00M | 204.00M | 190.90M |
| Total Debt | 6.86B | 6.81B | 7.13B | 7.00B | 7.46B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.92B | 9.20B | 9.77B | 9.91B | 10.41B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.06B | 2.26B | 2.30B | 2.74B | 2.85B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 743.00M | 1.10B | 850.00M | 1.25B | 1.06B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 891.00M | 1.25B | 999.00M | 1.40B | 1.22B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -173.00M | -102.00M | -173.00M | 125.00M | -232.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -582.00M | -1.15B | -899.00M | -1.51B | -945.00M |
Nexstar Media Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
200.78
Price Trends
221.47
Negative
211.90
Negative
201.49
Negative
Market Momentum
-8.41
Negative
47.83
Neutral
89.16
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NXST, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 200.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 197.49, below the 50-day MA of 221.47, and below the 200-day MA of 201.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -8.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.16 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NXST.
Nexstar Media Group Risk Analysis
Nexstar Media Group disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nexstar Media Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nexstar Media Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $15.30B | 31.10 | 5.09% | 0.76% | -12.13% | 6.09% | |
68 Neutral | $25.12B | 34.54 | 16.22% | 0.75% | 9.20% | -10.54% | |
64 Neutral | $25.12B | 30.69 | 16.22% | 0.85% | 9.20% | -10.54% | |
63 Neutral | $15.30B | 21.79 | 5.09% | 0.67% | -12.13% | 6.09% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
54 Neutral | $1.07B | 11.41 | 16.13% | 6.52% | -9.25% | -54.61% | |
53 Neutral | $5.98B | -9.27 | 4.92% | 3.66% | -8.45% | -86.54% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
NXST
Nexstar Media Group
197.21
46.98
31.27%
NWSA
News Corp
26.20
-1.77
-6.32%
SBGI
Sinclair Broadcast
14.83
0.17
1.14%
NWS
News Class B
30.23
-2.21
-6.81%
FOXA
Fox
62.21
11.88
23.60%
FOX
Fox
56.22
9.39
20.05%
Nexstar Media Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Nexstar Media Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend, Signals Confidence
Positive
May 1, 2026
On May 1, 2026, Nexstar Media Group announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.86 per share on its common stock, payable on May 29, 2026 to shareholders of record as of May 15, 2026. The move reinforces Nexstar&...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Nexstar Media Completes $1.7 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Apr 2, 2026
On April 2, 2026, Nexstar Media Inc., a unit of Nexstar Media Group, completed a private offering of $1.725 billion of 7.250% senior unsecured notes due 2034 to qualified institutional buyers and certain non-U.S. investors. The company used the pr...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Nexstar Announces Major Notes Offering for TEGNA Acquisition
Positive
Mar 20, 2026
On March 20, 2026, Nexstar Media Group announced that its subsidiary Nexstar Media Inc. plans a private offering of $3.39 billion in senior secured notes due 2033 and $1.725 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2034, guaranteed by Nexstar, Missio...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Nexstar Completes TEGNA Acquisition, Expanding Broadcast Footprint
Positive
Mar 20, 2026
On March 19, 2026, Nexstar Media Group completed its previously announced acquisition of TEGNA Inc., following approvals from the Federal Communications Commission and the U.S. Department of Justice, and structured the deal financing through a $2....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.