Want to see NXST full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Nexstar Media Group
(NASDAQ:NXST)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$198.00
â–²(6.57% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
NXST’s score is primarily capped by pressured profitability and high leverage, despite strong underlying cash generation. Technicals are moderately supportive (above key shorter-term averages with positive momentum), while valuation is mixed (good yield but high P/E). The latest earnings call adds some support via strong quarter performance and deleveraging intent, but near-term ad softness, higher interest burden, and legal/integration uncertainty keep risk elevated.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
Consistent operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for dividends, capex and debt paydown. Strong cash conversion cushions weak net margins, supports management’s multi‑quarter deleveraging plan and preserves strategic optionality through 2–6 months of execution.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage and Interest Burden
High leverage materially reduces financial flexibility and heightens refinancing and interest rate sensitivity. With multi‑billion debt outstanding and large run‑rate interest costs, earnings volatility or advertising weakness can quickly constrain cash available for investment or accelerated deleveraging over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
Consistent operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for dividends, capex and debt paydown. Strong cash conversion cushions weak net margins, supports management’s multi‑quarter deleveraging plan and preserves strategic optionality through 2–6 months of execution.
Read all positive factors
Nexstar Media Group (NXST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.84B
Dividend Yield3.92%
Average Volume (3M)437.74K
Price to Earnings (P/E)33.6
Beta (1Y)0.58
Revenue Growth10.51%
EPS Growth-72.98%
CountryUS
Employees12,389
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryBroadcasting
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.87
Shares Outstanding30,808,302
10 Day Avg. Volume308,690
30 Day Avg. Volume437,744
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.78
Price to Book (P/B)2.99
Price to Sales (P/S)1.25
P/FCF Ratio8.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$252.80Price Target Upside36.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)31.95
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.80B
Nexstar Media Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. is a diversified U.S. media corporation focused on broadcast television and digital content. The company specializes in the strategic acquisition, development, and management of local television stations, along with opera...
How the Company Makes Money
Nexstar primarily makes money through (1) advertising sales and (2) distribution-related fees tied to its broadcast stations and networks, supplemented by digital and other revenues.
1) Advertising revenue (local and national): Nexstar sells comm...
Nexstar Media Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights strong quarter-to-date operating and financial results — record revenue, robust adjusted EBITDA, and notably higher free cash flow — driven largely by the TEGNA acquisition, political advertising, and growth in NewsNation and CW. Management also announced strategic wins (ATSC 3.0 rollout, distribution partnerships) and meaningful capital allocation actions (dividend, debt repayment). Offsetting these positives are significant near-term challenges: a much higher debt load and interest expense, elevated corporate and one-time transaction costs, softness in core nonpolitical advertising, and unresolved litigation that limits integration and the realization of synergies. On balance, the company emphasizes confident execution and deleveraging plans while acknowledging material legal and leverage-related risks.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong EBITDA
Reported record Q2 net revenue of $1.99B (announced as ~$2.0B), up $764M or 62.2% year-over-year (primarily from TEGNA); adjusted EBITDA of $633M (31.8% margin), up $244M versus prior-year quarter.
Negative Updates
High Debt Load and Rising Interest Costs
Total outstanding debt rose to $11.7B as of June 30, 2026 (from $6.3B at year-end), an increase of ~$5.4B driven by the TEGNA acquisition; Q2 net interest expense was $190M, up $93M year-over-year (run-rate quarterly interest ~ $185M).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong EBITDA
Reported record Q2 net revenue of $1.99B (announced as ~$2.0B), up $764M or 62.2% year-over-year (primarily from TEGNA); adjusted EBITDA of $633M (31.8% margin), up $244M versus prior-year quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance for Q3 2026 called for nonpolitical advertising down mid-single digits (improving slightly from combined Q2's -5.8%), with political upside expected (Q2 political advertising was $147M and Ohio cited as a key driver); no change to legacy Nexstar distribution guidance; Q3 CapEx is projected around $50M, cash taxes about $65M, run‑rate quarterly interest expense roughly $185M, and programming cash payments expected to exceed amortization by ~$9M. For context, Q2 consolidated results included net revenue of ~$1.99B, adjusted EBITDA of $633M (31.8% margin), adjusted free cash flow of $238M (vs. $101M a year ago), CapEx of $45M, net interest expense of $190M, cash of $218M, $57M returned to shareholders ($1.86/share, ~4% annualized), $409M of debt repaid in the quarter, total debt of $11.7B, a first‑lien covenant ratio of 3.21x (covenant 4.75x) and total net leverage of 4.22x; management also expects to repay over $1B of debt (creating >$33 of equity value per share) and expects the CW to reach profitability in Q4 with full‑year CW losses improving by more than 30%.Nexstar Media Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.96B | 4.95B | 5.41B | 4.93B | 5.21B | 4.65B |
| Gross Profit | 3.63B | 1.93B | 3.19B | 2.81B | 3.21B | 2.79B |
| EBITDA | 1.81B | 1.31B | 2.21B | 1.79B | 2.22B | 1.97B |
| Net Income | 188.00M | 109.00M | 722.00M | 346.00M | 971.00M | 834.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 17.71B | 10.99B | 11.47B | 12.08B | 12.68B | 13.26B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 218.00M | 280.00M | 144.00M | 147.00M | 204.00M | 190.90M |
| Total Debt | 12.09B | 6.86B | 6.81B | 7.13B | 7.00B | 7.46B |
| Total Liabilities | 15.47B | 8.92B | 9.20B | 9.77B | 9.91B | 10.41B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.27B | 2.06B | 2.26B | 2.30B | 2.74B | 2.85B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 743.00M | 743.00M | 1.10B | 850.00M | 1.25B | 1.06B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 894.00M | 891.00M | 1.25B | 999.00M | 1.40B | 1.22B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.43B | -173.00M | -102.00M | -173.00M | 125.00M | -232.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.52B | -582.00M | -1.15B | -899.00M | -1.51B | -945.00M |
Nexstar Media Group Technical Analysis
Positive
185.80
Price Trends
178.51
Positive
185.25
Positive
195.98
Negative
Market Momentum
2.19
Positive
55.54
Neutral
36.84
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NXST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 185.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 186.93, above the 50-day MA of 178.51, and below the 200-day MA of 195.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NXST.
Nexstar Media Group Risk Analysis
Nexstar Media Group disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nexstar Media Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nexstar Media Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $27.29B | 15.79 | 14.74% | 0.99% | 5.07% | -20.95% | |
71 Outperform | $16.50B | 32.20 | 6.62% | 0.73% | 1.06% | 26.22% | |
70 Outperform | $27.29B | 15.79 | 14.74% | 1.13% | 5.07% | -20.95% | |
68 Neutral | $16.50B | 32.20 | 6.62% | 0.66% | 1.06% | 26.22% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
58 Neutral | $5.84B | 33.61 | 8.56% | 4.00% | 10.51% | -72.98% | |
58 Neutral | $1.07B | 19.38 | 12.71% | 7.41% | -6.46% | -6.68% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
NXST
Nexstar Media Group
184.80
-14.10
-7.09%
NWSA
News Corp
28.70
-0.61
-2.07%
SBGI
Sinclair Broadcast
14.25
1.16
8.90%
NWS
News Class B
32.68
-1.32
-3.88%
FOXA
Fox
69.19
12.16
21.33%
FOX
Fox
61.49
9.29
17.79%
Nexstar Media Group Corporate Events
Dividends
Nexstar Media Group Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
On July 31, 2026, Nexstar Media Group announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.86 per share on its outstanding common stock. The dividend will be paid on August 28, 2026, to shareholders of record as of August...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Nexstar Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Incentive Plan
Positive
Jun 16, 2026
On June 16, 2026, Nexstar Media Group held its annual meeting of stockholders, with a quorum of shares represented, and shareholders voted to elect all nine board nominees and affirm the compensation of the company’s named executive officers...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.