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Nexstar Media Group (NXST)
NASDAQ:NXST
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Nexstar Media Group
(NASDAQ:NXST)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$267.00
â–²(9.63% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is led by strong technical uptrend and solid valuation (moderate P/E with a meaningful dividend), while financial performance is held back by the sharp 2025 earnings reset and leverage risk despite resilient free cash flow. Earnings-call guidance is constructive for 2026, but near-term cyclicality and execution risks (advertising mix, subscriber attrition, and transaction costs) temper the outlook.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Nexstar has produced consistently strong operating cash flow historically (~$1.0B–$1.4B 2020–2024) and material free cash flow in 2025. Durable cash generation supports dividends, disciplined buybacks, capex, and funding of strategic deals, partially offsetting earnings cyclicality.
Digital momentum
A structural shift toward digital monetization reduces reliance on political and auto ad cycles. Faster-growing digital products and local digital traction provide higher-margin, recurring demand channels that diversify revenue and support sustainable medium-term growth and ad mix resilience.
Distribution renewals
Multi-year carriage and affiliation renewals lock in retransmission fees and preserve distribution economics. Renewals covering the majority of subscribers underpin low/mid-single-digit distribution revenue guidance and provide predictable, recurring cash flow less exposed to advertising cyclicality.
Negative Factors
High leverage
Material leverage constrains strategic flexibility and increases sensitivity to operating shocks. With leverage near 3x and sizable interest and mandatory amortization, management faces trade-offs among deleveraging, dividends, capex and funding acquisitions, elevating financial risk in weaker ad cycles.
Election-driven earnings volatility
Heavy exposure to cyclical political ad spending creates lumpy annual revenue and margin profiles, complicating forecasting and capital allocation. Earnings and free cash flow can swing materially between election and non‑election years, raising execution risk for multi‑year planning.
Liquidity constrained by M&A
With a modest cash balance retained for the TEGNA deal and dividends maintained, Nexstar’s near-term liquidity cushion is reduced. This increases dependence on external financing or cash flow to complete strategic transactions and limits optionality for opportunistic investments or countercyclical support.
Nexstar Media Group (NXST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.39B
Dividend Yield3.66%
Average Volume (3M)352.61K
Price to Earnings (P/E)81.3
Beta (1Y)0.57
Revenue Growth-1.42%
EPS Growth-8.99%
CountryUS
Employees11,773
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryEntertainment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-5.63
Shares Outstanding30,327,997
10 Day Avg. Volume312,156
30 Day Avg. Volume352,612
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.66
Price to Book (P/B)2.99
Price to Sales (P/S)1.25
P/FCF Ratio8.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.89
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.83
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.00
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.30
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$276.40Price Target Upside13.49% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)25.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.43B
Nexstar Media Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNexstar Media Group, Inc., a television broadcasting and digital media company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and operation of television stations and interactive community websites and digital media services in the United States. The company offers free programming to television viewing audiences. As of December 31, 2020, it provided sales, programming, and other services through various local service agreements to 37 power television stations owned by independent third parties; and owned, operated, programmed, or provided sales and other services to 198 television stations. The company also offers video and display advertising platforms that are delivered locally or nationally through its own and various third party websites and mobile applications, as well as owns WGN America, a national general entertainment cable network. Its stations are affiliates of ABC, NBC, FOX, CBS, The CW, MyNetworkTV, and other broadcast television networks. The company was formerly known as Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc. and changed its name to Nexstar Media Group, Inc. in January 2017. Nexstar Media Group, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyNexstar Media Group generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from advertising sales and retransmission consent fees. The company sells advertising space on its television stations, targeting local businesses and national advertisers looking to reach specific demographics. Additionally, Nexstar earns revenue from retransmission consent fees, where it negotiates agreements with cable and satellite providers to carry its channels. This revenue model is bolstered by the company's extensive reach and strong ratings in local markets. Furthermore, Nexstar has expanded its digital footprint through online streaming services and digital advertising, creating additional revenue opportunities. Significant partnerships with major networks and content providers enhance its programming offerings and attract more viewers, further driving advertising revenue.
Nexstar Media Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: material near‑term revenue and cash‑flow pressure driven by the absence of 2024 election‑period political advertising led to significant YoY declines in Q4 advertising revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow. Offsetting these short‑term headwinds are several strategic and operational positives — strong audience growth at The CW and NewsNation, continued digital revenue acceleration (expected to exceed national ad revenue in 2026), successful distribution and affiliation renewals, disciplined cost‑reduction initiatives, and a constructive guidance range for 2026 adjusted EBITDA ($1.95B–$2.05B). The company is also actively progressing the TEGNA transaction (submitted HSR and FCC filings) which management views as transformational but that brings one‑time costs and near‑term cash deployment. Overall, the narrative is one of strategic execution and positioning for growth amid temporary cyclical weakness tied to the election advertising timing.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
2026 Stand‑alone Adjusted EBITDA Guidance
Nexstar provided stand-alone pre‑TEGNA full‑year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion, signaling management confidence in near‑term profitability and cash generation assuming current assumptions.
Digital Revenue Momentum
Digital revenue grew high single digits in 2025 (double digits in local business); management expects digital revenue to surpass national advertising revenue in 2026, marking a strategic shift toward higher‑growth, nonpolitical revenue streams.
The CW Viewership and Cash‑Flow Improvement
The CW delivered a 19% year‑over‑year increase in viewership in 2025, finished as the 10th most‑watched ad‑supported network and the second fastest‑growing network; cash flow improved by ~32% in 2025 and management expects The CW to reduce losses ~30% in 2026 with profitability targeted in Q4 2026.
NewsNation Ratings Strength
NewsNation posted its strongest year ever across total day, primetime and daytime and was the fastest‑growing cable news network in the adult 25–54 demo in 2025; consumer awareness rose to >40% (and >50% among news viewers), indicating improved audience traction.
Distribution and Affiliation Renewals
Renewed distribution agreements covering >60% of Nexstar’s subscriber base in 2025; extended ABC and MyNetworkTV affiliations to 2027 and renegotiated CW carriage covering ~2/3 of its subscribers, supporting low/mid single‑digit distribution revenue growth guidance for 2026.
Q4 Distribution Revenue Growth
Q4 2025 distribution revenue was $720 million, up $6 million or 0.8% year‑over‑year, driven by higher rates, vMVPD subscriber growth and added CW affiliations (partially offset by MVPD attrition).
Operational Expense Management
Recurring cash operating expenses decreased 1.6% in 2025; combined Q4 direct operating and SG&A expenses (ex D&A & corporate) declined $7 million or 0.9%, and management expects additional cash operating expense savings in 2026 through centralization, automation and incentive alignment.
Balance Sheet and Leverage Position
Total outstanding debt was $6.3 billion at 12/31/25 with Nexstar total net leverage of 3.09x and a first‑lien covenant ratio of 1.71x (well below the 4.25x covenant), indicating covenant headroom while preparing to fund the TEGNA acquisition.
Sporting Content Driving Audience Gains
Nexstar highlighted strong sports performance: NFL viewership +7% YoY industry‑wide (broadcast led), NBA regular season viewership +16% YoY (broadcast return), and The CW sports: NASCAR +10% YoY, ACC football +26%, ACC basketball +35% early season—supporting network monetization.
Capital Return and Share Reduction
Returned $56 million to shareholders in Q4 and $351 million for the full year (42% of adjusted free cash flow) via $226 million dividends and $125 million buybacks, reducing shares outstanding by ~1% to 30.3 million while conserving cash for the TEGNA acquisition.
Negative Updates
Q4 Net Revenue Decline
Q4 2025 net revenue was $1.29 billion, down 13.4% year‑over‑year, largely driven by a material decline in political advertising versus the prior‑year election quarter.
Advertising Revenue Sharp Drop (Political Impact)
Q4 advertising revenue fell to $549 million, down $209 million or 27.6% YoY. Political advertising decreased by $233 million YoY to $21 million, driving the majority of the ad revenue decline.
Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Free Cash Flow Contraction
Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $433 million (33.6% margin), down $195 million versus Q4 ’24. Q4 adjusted free cash flow fell to $214 million from $411 million a year ago, a reduction of $197 million (~48%), reflecting the revenue shortfall and timing differences.
Equity Investment Write‑down
Income from equity method investments (primarily 31% stake in TV Food Network) declined 67% in Q4 (down $12 million) and management recorded a write‑down on the TV Food Network investment, reflecting weakness in that cable network segment.
Increased One‑time Corporate Costs Related to TEGNA
Q4 2025 corporate expense was $65 million versus $48 million in Q4 2024, with a $17 million increase primarily due to one‑time transaction costs associated with the proposed TEGNA acquisition, pressuring near‑term operating income.
Subscriber Attrition and Renewal Risk
Despite distribution renewals, Nexstar noted ongoing MVPD subscriber attrition; ~30% of subscribers are up for renewal in 2026 which introduces execution risk and could affect distribution revenue if trends worsen.
Auto Category Weakness
Auto remained the largest declining advertising category; while digital products helped offset some of the decline, auto weakness materially contributed to advertising headwinds in 2025.
Higher Expected Cash Taxes in 2026
Full‑year 2026 cash taxes are projected at $315 million to $325 million, an increase of ~$208 million versus 2025, driven by expected improved income in the election year and increasing near‑term cash tax outflows.
Reduced Cash Balance While Funding M&A
Cash on hand was $280 million at quarter end (including $13 million related to The CW); management is conserving cash to fund the TEGNA acquisition (maintained dividend, limited buybacks), which may limit flexibility for other capital allocation near term.
Earnings Volatility from Election Cycles
Nexstar’s results show meaningful dependency on political advertising timing: management expects ~20% of full‑year political ad revenue in H1 and ~80% in H2 of 2026, creating lumpy revenue and margin profiles tied to election cycle timing.
Company Guidance
Nexstar reiterated stand‑alone 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.95–$2.05 billion, expecting distribution revenue to grow low single digits on a gross basis and mid‑single digits net (having renewed agreements covering >60% of subscribers in 2025 and with ~30% of subscribers up for renewal in 2026), and forecasting political advertising to represent a low double‑digit share of broadcast political spend (industry cycle forecast $10.8 billion total political, broadcast ≈$5.28 billion) with ~20% of political revenue in H1 and ~80% in H2; management expects nonpolitical advertising to be roughly flat in Q1, digital revenue to surpass national advertising revenue in 2026, The CW to cut losses another ~30% in 2026 and reach profitability in Q4, CapEx of $125–$130 million for the year ($30–$35M in Q1), full‑year cash interest of ~$355–$365M (Q1 ~ $85M), cash taxes of ~$315–$325M (Q1 state tax ~$2.6M), programming payments in excess of amortization ~$25–$30M (≈$1M in Q1), mandatory debt amortization ≈$111M, pension/DB contributions ≈$36M, an anticipated dividend ≈$228M, and balance‑sheet metrics of $6.3B debt, $280M cash, first‑lien covenant ratio 1.71x (vs covenant 4.25x) and total net leverage 3.09x.Nexstar Media Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Cash flow is a key strength (consistently strong operating cash flow and solid free cash flow, including in 2025), but the latest period shows a sharp earnings drop and elevated volatility. Balance sheet leverage remains a meaningful constraint (high debt historically), and some 2025 balance sheet/margin fields appear incomplete, adding uncertainty.Income Statement
Profitability has historically been strong, with healthy margins in 2020–2024 (net margin ~7%–19% and robust EBITDA margins). However, the latest annual period (2025) shows a sharp profitability reset: net income fell to $109M (from $722M in 2024) and revenue declined ~3.9%, with reported margin fields also appearing inconsistent/partial versus prior years. Overall, the business shows proven earning power, but recent results point to elevated earnings volatility and a weaker near-term trajectory.58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage is the key constraint. From 2020–2024, total debt remains high (~$6.8B–$7.7B) with debt running around ~2.6x–3.1x equity, which limits flexibility if operating conditions soften. Equity levels were relatively stable and returns on equity were strong in several years (roughly ~15%–35%), but the 2025 balance sheet data shows debt/equity/assets as zeros, which looks incomplete and reduces confidence in the most recent view. Net: capable balance sheet, but meaningfully levered.46
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a clear strength. Operating cash flow has been consistently strong (~$1.0B–$1.4B in 2020–2024) with solid free cash flow (~$0.85B–$1.25B), and free cash flow generally tracks earnings well (free cash flow close to ~83%–89% of net income in most years). In 2025, operating cash flow stayed very strong ($891M) and free cash flow remained substantial ($743M), even though free cash flow declined ~24% year over year and earnings fell sharply—cash flow resilience partially offsets income statement weakness.74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.95B | 5.41B | 4.93B | 5.21B | 4.65B |
| Gross Profit | 1.93B | 3.19B | 2.81B | 3.21B | 2.79B |
| EBITDA | 1.31B | 2.21B | 1.79B | 2.22B | 1.97B |
| Net Income | 109.00M | 722.00M | 346.00M | 971.00M | 834.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 10.99B | 11.47B | 12.08B | 12.68B | 13.26B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 280.00M | 144.00M | 147.00M | 204.00M | 190.90M |
| Total Debt | 6.86B | 6.81B | 7.13B | 7.00B | 7.46B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.92B | 9.20B | 9.77B | 9.91B | 10.41B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.06B | 2.26B | 2.30B | 2.74B | 2.85B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 743.00M | 1.10B | 850.00M | 1.25B | 1.06B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 891.00M | 1.25B | 999.00M | 1.40B | 1.22B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -173.00M | -102.00M | -173.00M | 125.00M | -232.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -582.00M | -1.15B | -899.00M | -1.51B | -945.00M |
Nexstar Media Group Technical Analysis
Positive
243.55
Price Trends
216.47
Positive
203.64
Positive
193.62
Positive
Market Momentum
8.45
Negative
67.05
Neutral
90.58
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NXST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 243.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 231.17, above the 50-day MA of 216.47, and above the 200-day MA of 193.62, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 8.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.58 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NXST.
Nexstar Media Group Risk Analysis
Nexstar Media Group disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nexstar Media Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nexstar Media Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $23.28B | 12.61 | 16.87% | 0.85% | 14.91% | 9.30% | |
68 Neutral | $23.28B | 13.80 | 16.87% | 0.75% | 14.91% | 9.30% | |
67 Neutral | $7.39B | 81.29 | 4.26% | 3.66% | -1.42% | -8.99% | |
66 Neutral | $13.67B | 30.95 | 5.18% | 0.76% | -16.36% | 29.53% | |
63 Neutral | $13.67B | 34.08 | 5.59% | 0.67% | -16.36% | 29.53% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
58 Neutral | $1.07B | -9.05 | -21.83% | 6.52% | -0.98% | 82.16% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
NXST
Nexstar Media Group
243.55
79.96
48.88%
NWSA
News Corp
23.81
-4.05
-14.54%
SBGI
Sinclair Broadcast
15.29
2.63
20.73%
NWS
News Class B
26.22
-5.27
-16.73%
FOXA
Fox
57.36
1.67
2.99%
FOX
Fox
52.38
0.30
0.58%
Nexstar Media Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsM&A Transactions
Nexstar Maintains Dividend While Prioritizing TEGNA Acquisition
Positive
Feb 3, 2026
On January 30, 2026, Nexstar Media Group announced that its board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.86 per share on its common stock, payable on February 27, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 13, 2026. The board chose to maintain the current dividend rate while signaling that excess cash will be directed toward financing the pending accretive acquisition of TEGNA and/or debt reduction, underscoring a capital allocation strategy that balances shareholder returns with strategic growth and deleveraging; the company highlighted that its dividend yield of 3.59% places it in the upper tier of S&P 400 dividend payers, though future payouts will remain subject to quarterly board review.
The most recent analyst rating on (NXST) stock is a Buy with a $225.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nexstar Media Group stock, see the NXST Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.