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Ryerson Holdings (RYI)
NYSE:RYI

Ryerson Holdings (RYI) AI Stock Analysis

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RYI

Ryerson Holdings

(NYSE:RYI)

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Neutral 52 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$28.00
▲(1.89% Upside)
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (profitability pressure and deteriorating free cash flow) and a negative P/E tied to losses. Technicals are moderately supportive with a trend above major moving averages and positive MACD, while the earnings call adds mixed support due to merger synergies and improved liquidity offset by soft demand and loss-making guidance.
Positive Factors
Scale from Olympic Steel Merger
Combining with Olympic Steel creates substantial scale and broader geographic reach, enabling better procurement terms and fixed-cost absorption. $120M of phased synergies over two years should sustainably improve operating leverage and competitive positioning across cycles.
Extensive service-center network and value-added services
A large distribution footprint and integrated value-added processing create durable customer relationships and recurring service revenue. These capabilities increase switching costs, support higher effective margins than commodity sales, and stabilize demand across end markets.
Capital investment in facilities and equipment
Significant recent CapEx modernizes operations, increasing throughput, efficiency, and the ability to offer advanced services. These investments support long-term margin improvement, integration of merged operations, and capacity to capture cross-selling opportunities.
Negative Factors
Negative profitability and weakening margins
Persistent negative net margins and declining operating margins reduce the firm's ability to self-fund investments or absorb shocks. Over months, this undermines reinvestment capacity, hinders margin recovery, and complicates execution of strategic initiatives like integration and deleveraging.
Elevated leverage constraining financial flexibility
A ~3.7x leverage ratio limits financial flexibility, raises interest obligations, and increases sensitivity to earnings volatility. High leverage makes funding further integration or cyclical investment harder and heightens refinancing and covenant risk if cash flows remain weak.
Ongoing demand weakness and margin compression
Sustained industry recession and falling shipments reduce volumes and pricing power, pressuring utilization and gross margins. Over a multi-month horizon, weak end-market demand slows recovery of fixed-cost absorption and constrains the pace at which merger synergies can be realized.

Ryerson Holdings (RYI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Ryerson Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRyerson Holding Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, processes and distributes industrial metals in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and China. It offers a line of products in carbon steel, stainless steel, alloy steels, and aluminum, as well as nickel and red metals in various shapes and forms, including coils, sheets, rounds, hexagons, square and flat bars, plates, structural, and tubing. The company also provides various processing services, such as bending, beveling, blanking, blasting, burning, cutting-to-length, drilling, embossing, flattening, forming, grinding, laser cutting, machining, notching, painting, perforating, polishing, punching, rolling, sawing, scribing, shearing, slitting, stamping, tapping, threading, welding, or other techniques to process materials. It serves various industries, including commercial ground transportation, metal fabrication and machine shops, industrial machinery and equipment manufacturing, consumer durable equipment, HVAC manufacturing, construction equipment manufacturing, food processing and agricultural equipment manufacturing, and oil and gas. The company was founded in 1842 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyRyerson generates revenue primarily through the sale of metal products and related processing services. Its revenue model is based on the distribution of metal products, with significant revenue streams coming from both the sale of raw materials and the provision of value-added services. The company benefits from economies of scale due to its extensive distribution network, allowing it to serve a variety of industries efficiently. Key revenue streams include direct sales to manufacturers, construction firms, and other industrial clients. Additionally, Ryerson's partnerships with suppliers and manufacturers help secure competitive pricing and reliable product availability, which are crucial for maintaining profit margins. The company's strategic focus on customer service and operational efficiency further supports its earnings by enhancing customer retention and attracting new business.

Ryerson Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted a significant merger with Olympic Steel and improvements in liquidity and average selling prices. However, these positives are countered by ongoing recessionary conditions, expected volume declines, and a net loss in the third quarter. The sentiment is cautiously optimistic due to the merger's potential benefits.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Merger Agreement with Olympic Steel
Ryerson announced a merger agreement with Olympic Steel, which is expected to result in $120 million of synergies phased in over 2 years. The merger will form the second largest metal service center in North America with over $6.5 billion in revenue.
Improved Liquidity and Debt Management
Ryerson ended the third quarter with $521 million of liquidity, an increase from $485 million at the end of the second quarter. Total debt decreased by $10 million to $500 million, moving the leverage ratio closer to the target range.
Increased Average Selling Prices
Average selling prices increased by 2.6% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter.
Investment in CapEx and Facility Expansion
Ryerson and Olympic have invested $480 million in recent years in CapEx projects, including new facilities and equipment, positioning them for future growth.
Negative Updates
Continued Industry Recessionary Conditions
The third quarter was characterized by industry recessionary conditions with falling shipments year-over-year and carbon steel margin compression.
Expected Fourth Quarter Volume Decline
Volumes are expected to soften by 5% to 7% in the fourth quarter due to seasonality and ongoing demand challenges.
Net Loss in the Third Quarter
Ryerson reported a net loss of $14.8 million or $0.46 per diluted share for the third quarter, compared to a net income of $1.9 million in the prior quarter.
Gross Margin Compression
Gross margin, excluding LIFO, contracted by 70 basis points to 18.3% amidst price pressure and a soft demand environment.
Company Guidance
During Ryerson Holding Corporation's Third Quarter 2025 Conference Call, the company provided guidance for the fourth quarter, expecting volumes to soften by 5% to 7% due to typical seasonality and ongoing demand challenges. Revenue is projected to be between $1.07 billion and $1.11 billion, with average selling prices anticipated to remain flat to increase by 2%. Gross margins are expected to remain under pressure, forecasting adjusted EBITDA, excluding LIFO, to range from $33 million to $37 million. Net loss per share is predicted to be between $0.28 and $0.22, considering projected LIFO expenses and depreciation, with capital expenditures expected to reach between $50 million and $55 million. The company ended the third quarter with $500 million in total debt and $470 million in net debt, with a leverage ratio of 3.7x, aiming to improve further through cash flow generation.

Ryerson Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ryerson Holdings is experiencing financial instability with declining revenue and profitability. The balance sheet shows increased leverage, impacting financial flexibility. Cash flow management is a concern, with declining free cash flow growth. Operational inefficiencies and profitability improvements are needed to enhance financial health.
Income Statement
Ryerson Holdings has experienced fluctuating revenue growth with a recent decline in revenue. The company shows a negative net profit margin in the TTM, indicating profitability challenges. Gross profit margin remains stable, but EBIT and EBITDA margins have decreased, reflecting operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased slightly, indicating higher leverage, which could pose financial risk. Return on equity is negative in the TTM, highlighting profitability issues. However, the equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure.
Cash Flow
Ryerson Holdings faces significant challenges in cash flow management, with a sharp decline in free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, indicating inefficiencies in converting income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive but declining, suggesting potential liquidity concerns.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.47B4.60B5.11B6.32B5.68B3.47B
Gross Profit804.40M834.20M1.02B1.31B1.15B621.10M
EBITDA90.50M112.40M293.60M634.10M492.50M123.90M
Net Income-22.80M-8.60M145.70M391.00M294.30M-65.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.49B2.44B2.57B2.33B2.37B1.80B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments29.80M27.70M54.30M39.20M51.20M61.40M
Total Debt856.60M850.80M803.80M626.40M849.00M853.70M
Total Liabilities1.69B1.61B1.66B1.44B1.82B1.66B
Stockholders Equity787.30M815.30M905.90M885.10M537.20M138.80M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow12.30M105.30M243.20M396.10M-24.30M251.90M
Operating Cash Flow66.50M204.90M365.10M501.20M35.00M277.90M
Investing Cash Flow-54.80M-142.70M-262.10M-160.00M94.40M-25.90M
Financing Cash Flow-17.70M-86.80M-88.30M-350.10M-137.90M-250.20M

Ryerson Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price27.48
Price Trends
50DMA
23.20
Positive
100DMA
22.90
Positive
200DMA
22.19
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.92
Negative
RSI
69.85
Neutral
STOCH
84.62
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RYI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 27.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.66, above the 50-day MA of 23.20, and above the 200-day MA of 22.19, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.92 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.62 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RYI.

Ryerson Holdings Risk Analysis

Ryerson Holdings disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ryerson Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Ryerson Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$3.30B11.0027.28%0.67%1.55%701.41%
78
Outperform
$608.19M17.319.78%7.61%25.35%
73
Outperform
$619.13M15.6811.36%3.49%22.39%112.75%
68
Neutral
$2.54B25.2111.31%1.27%7.43%148.83%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
63
Neutral
$360.24M31.845.06%-12.38%-0.71%
52
Neutral
$853.23M-38.60-2.81%2.84%-4.89%-214.50%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
RYI
Ryerson Holdings
27.48
9.94
56.67%
AZZ
AZZ
117.04
33.97
40.89%
IIIN
Insteel Industries
32.89
9.70
41.81%
NWPX
Northwest Pipe Company
63.65
18.46
40.85%
WOR
Worthington Industries
53.54
14.44
36.93%
MEC
Mayville Engineering Company
18.29
3.61
24.59%

Ryerson Holdings Corporate Events

M&A Transactions
Ryerson Holdings Announces Merger with Olympic Steel
Neutral
Oct 30, 2025

On October 28, 2025, Ryerson Holding Corporation announced a merger agreement with Olympic Steel, Inc., where Olympic will become a wholly owned subsidiary of Ryerson. The merger involves converting Olympic’s common stock into Ryerson’s common stock, with specific terms for stock-based and long-term cash awards. The merger is subject to various conditions, including shareholder and regulatory approvals, and includes provisions for post-closing governance changes and potential termination fees.

The most recent analyst rating on (RYI) stock is a Hold with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ryerson Holdings stock, see the RYI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Ryerson Holdings Announces Merger with Olympic Steel
Neutral
Oct 28, 2025

On October 28, 2025, Ryerson announced a merger agreement with Olympic Steel, where Olympic will become a wholly owned subsidiary. This strategic move is expected to enhance Ryerson’s market position and operational capabilities. Additionally, Ryerson reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a revenue of $1.16 billion, a net loss of $14.8 million, and a slight reduction in debt. Despite weak demand and tariff pricing conditions, Ryerson managed to maintain revenue within its guidance range, reflecting its effective management and strategic investments.

The most recent analyst rating on (RYI) stock is a Hold with a $23.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ryerson Holdings stock, see the RYI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 09, 2026