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Ryan Specialty Group
(NYSE:RYAN)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$46.00
â–²(10.18% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
The score is driven primarily by solid operating performance and growth, but held back by high leverage and a cautious near-term outlook after the guidance downgrade and margin-compression expectations. Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above key moving averages, while valuation remains demanding at a ~45x P/E despite a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth
Multi-year revenue expansion and an outsized TTM acceleration show durable demand in specialty P&C distribution and underwriting. Consistent top-line growth supports scale, strengthens carrier and broker relationships, enables cross-sell, and underpins long-term fee and commission generation across cycles.
Negative Factors
High Financial Leverage
Very high leverage limits balance-sheet flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate risk. Elevated debt amplifies earnings volatility impact on solvency metrics, constrains opportunistic M&A or sustained buybacks without increasing risk, and makes long-term strategy sensitive to cash-flow swings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth
Multi-year revenue expansion and an outsized TTM acceleration show durable demand in specialty P&C distribution and underwriting. Consistent top-line growth supports scale, strengthens carrier and broker relationships, enables cross-sell, and underpins long-term fee and commission generation across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Ryan Specialty Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Shows where sales are generated across regions or countries, highlighting market concentration and expansion opportunities. For Ryan, geographic splits signal exposure to local insurance markets, regulatory environments, and currency effects — high concentration raises country-specific risk, while broader geographic mix can indicate more resilient growth prospects.
Shows where sales are generated across regions or countries, highlighting market concentration and expansion opportunities. For Ryan, geographic splits signal exposure to local insurance markets, regulatory environments, and currency effects — high concentration raises country-specific risk, while broader geographic mix can indicate more resilient growth prospects.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyRyan Specialty Group (RYAN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.64B
Dividend Yield1.13%
Average Volume (3M)2.17M
Price to Earnings (P/E)58.8
Beta (1Y)0.50
Revenue Growth13.83%
EPS Growth70.43%
CountryUS
Employees6,110
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.75
Shares Outstanding129,468,140
10 Day Avg. Volume1,613,217
30 Day Avg. Volume2,169,746
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.88
Price to Book (P/B)10.14
Price to Sales (P/S)2.15
P/FCF Ratio11.41
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$44.23Price Target Upside5.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)2.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.25B
Ryan Specialty Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. functions as a provider of specialized insurance products and comprehensive solutions for the benefit of insurance brokers, agents, and carriers. The company delivers a range of services including distribution, underw...
How the Company Makes Money
Ryan Specialty makes money primarily by earning fees and commissions tied to placing and managing specialty P&C insurance business. A major revenue stream comes from its wholesale brokerage activities, where it intermediates between retail insuran...
Ryan Specialty Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call reported a strong first quarter with double-digit top-line growth, healthy EBITDA and EPS gains, measurable productivity gains from AI, and continued capital deployment (repurchases and M&A optionality). However, management revised full-year expectations downward due to rapid market softening—notably large property rate declines (25%–35%)—and guided to mid-single-digit organic growth and margin compression (down ~100–150 bps). The company emphasized disciplined underwriting, continued investment in AI/Empower to drive long-term efficiency, and strategic partnerships as defenses against market volatility. Given robust execution in Q1 and clear strategic actions to offset headwinds, but with a meaningful guidance downgrade and near-term margin pressure, the tone is cautiously constructive.Positive Updates
Strong Q1 Top-Line Growth
Total revenue grew 15% year-over-year to $795 million, driven by organic revenue growth of 11.8% and M&A contributions (which added over 2 percentage points).
Negative Updates
Revised Full-Year Organic Growth Guidance
Company updated full-year organic revenue growth guidance to mid-single digits (management clarified ~4%–6%), down from prior high-single-digit expectations; Q2 organic growth is assumed to be near 0% given seasonal concentration in property.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q1 Top-Line Growth
Total revenue grew 15% year-over-year to $795 million, driven by organic revenue growth of 11.8% and M&A contributions (which added over 2 percentage points).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance: For full-year 2026 Ryan Specialty now expects organic revenue growth in the mid‑single digits (roughly 4–6%), with Q2 organic growth assumed to be near 0%; management expects a meaningful decline in the property book for the year driven by assumed property rate declines of 25–35% on the most cat‑exposed lines and anticipates more moderate casualty growth. On profitability, full‑year adjusted EBITDAC margin is now guided to be down roughly 100–150 basis points year‑over‑year (Q2 margins assumed in the low‑30s), versus a Q1 adjusted EBITDAC margin of 29.2% (adjusted EBITDAC of $232 million, up 15.7%). Other key financial assumptions include an adjusted effective tax rate of ~26% for the remainder of 2026, GAAP interest expense net of interest income of approximately $222 million for 2026 (with ~$58 million to be expensed in Q2), ending the quarter at 3.3x total net leverage (within a 3–4x comfort corridor), a $40 million share repurchase completed in Q1, and continued prioritization of M&A and buybacks (willing to temporarily go above the leverage corridor for compelling deals). Management also reiterated Empower charges of ~ $160 million cumulative through 2028 to generate ~ $80 million of annual run‑rate savings by 2029 (ramping through 2027–28) and said organic growth will continue to fluctuate quarter‑to‑quarter.Ryan Specialty Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.22B | 3.05B | 2.52B | 2.08B | 1.73B | 1.43B |
| Gross Profit | 2.15B | 2.76B | 2.52B | 2.08B | 1.73B | 1.43B |
| EBITDA | 651.81M | 803.08M | 598.63M | 473.27M | 393.31M | 253.60M |
| Net Income | 188.04M | 63.40M | 94.67M | 61.04M | 61.05M | 65.87M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.97B | 10.56B | 9.65B | 7.25B | 6.38B | 5.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 140.12M | 158.32M | 554.14M | 838.79M | 992.72M | 386.96M |
| Total Debt | 3.81B | 3.53B | 3.46B | 2.16B | 2.16B | 1.68B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.95B | 9.31B | 8.55B | 6.27B | 5.57B | 4.86B |
| Stockholders Equity | 509.41M | 648.07M | 627.66M | 559.75M | 478.40M | 343.77M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 496.69M | 575.71M | 467.87M | 447.43M | 320.47M | 263.71M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 558.52M | 643.67M | 514.87M | 477.20M | 335.51M | 273.49M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -247.02M | -834.01M | -1.76B | -476.23M | -22.42M | -457.94M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -66.00M | 78.12M | 1.17B | -12.61M | 314.76M | 429.28M |
Ryan Specialty Group Technical Analysis
Positive
41.75
Price Trends
37.54
Positive
35.76
Positive
42.94
Positive
Market Momentum
1.32
Positive
59.85
Neutral
33.68
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RYAN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.04, above the 50-day MA of 37.54, and below the 200-day MA of 42.94, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RYAN.
Ryan Specialty Group Risk Analysis
Ryan Specialty Group disclosed 74 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ryan Specialty Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ryan Specialty Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | $6.08B | 9.30 | 12.01% | 2.01% | 1.34% | 2.64% | |
81 Outperform | $6.16B | 9.36 | 13.90% | 2.02% | -1.88% | 4.83% | |
76 Outperform | $13.83B | 14.09 | 17.40% | 1.24% | 9.02% | 53.71% | |
71 Outperform | $7.66B | 10.36 | 13.62% | 2.93% | 22.55% | 298.19% | |
69 Neutral | $13.89B | 18.29 | 9.85% | 3.96% | 13.76% | -30.60% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
60 Neutral | $11.64B | 58.75 | 31.03% | 1.20% | 13.83% | 70.43% |
* Financial Sector Average
RYAN
Ryan Specialty Group
44.16
-12.99
-22.73%
AIZ
Assurant
279.19
93.13
50.06%
FNF
Fidelity National Financial
51.59
-2.11
-3.93%
FAF
First American Financial
74.99
15.02
25.05%
MTG
MGIC Investment
30.04
3.91
14.96%
ESNT
Essent Group
65.96
10.27
18.45%
Ryan Specialty Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Ryan Specialty Delivers Solid Q2 Growth Amid Margin Pressure
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
For the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, Ryan Specialty reported total revenue of $916.6 million, up 7.2% year over year, with organic revenue growth of 6.7% and Adjusted EBITDAC rising 6.0% to $326.9 million, while net income fell 13.1% to $10...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Ryan Specialty Expands Share Repurchase Authorization to $600 Million
Positive
May 26, 2026
On May 26, 2026, Chicago-based Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. announced that its board had increased the authorization for its Class A common stock repurchase program by $300 million, bringing the total program size to $600 million. As of May 22, 2...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Ryan Specialty Shareholders Back Board, Auditor and Pay
Positive
May 1, 2026
At its recent Annual Meeting, Ryan Specialty Group stockholders elected five directors, including David P. Bolger and Francesca Cornelli, to serve terms expiring at the 2027 annual meeting, reinforcing continuity in the company’s board leade...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Ryan Specialty posts strong first-quarter revenue and earnings
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Ryan Specialty reported strong results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, with total revenue up 15.2% year over year to $795.2 million, driven by 11.8% organic growth, new client wins, expanded relationships and continu...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Ryan Specialty Announces Long-Term Option Settlement Agreement
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. and the Ryan Stock Option Trust, overseen by Executive Chairman Patrick G. Ryan and Shirley W. Ryan, agreed to enter into an option settlement agreement on May 5, 2026 that will obligate the Trust t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.