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Republic Airways Holdings (RJET)
NASDAQ:RJET
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Republic Airways Holdings
(NASDAQ:RJET)
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Rating:38Underperform
Price Target:
$16.00
▼(-15.75% Downside)
Action:DowngradedDate:12/03/25
Mesa Air Group's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance, characterized by significant losses and high leverage. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, and the valuation is unattractive due to a negative P/E ratio. The lack of earnings call data and corporate events further limits positive influences on the score.
Positive Factors
Strategic Partnerships
These agreements provide stable revenue streams and reduce market risk, ensuring consistent cash flow and operational stability.
Fleet Efficiency
Operating efficient aircraft models helps maintain lower operational costs and enhances reliability, supporting long-term profitability.
Free Cash Flow Growth
Improving free cash flow indicates better cash management, providing more resources for debt reduction and potential reinvestment.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage poses financial risk, limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns, impacting long-term stability.
Declining Revenue
Decreasing revenue indicates challenges in maintaining market share and competitiveness, affecting future growth prospects.
Negative Profit Margin
Sustained losses reflect operational inefficiencies and high expenses, threatening long-term viability and shareholder value.
Republic Airways Holdings (RJET) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$948.77M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)108.00K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.6
Beta (1Y)1.29
Revenue Growth-15.06%
EPS Growth-119.79%
CountryUS
Employees6,400
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.12
Shares Outstanding46,829,475
10 Day Avg. Volume160,526
30 Day Avg. Volume108,004
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.07
Price to Book (P/B)1.09
Price to Sales (P/S)0.83
P/FCF Ratio-36.47
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.85
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.98
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.96
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-11.04
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Republic Airways Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionRepublic Airways Holdings Inc. provides scheduled passenger services. It operates a fleet of approximately 240 aircraft and offers scheduled passenger service with 1,000 daily flights to 80 cities across the U.S., Canada, the Caribbean, and Central America. The company was founded in 1974 and is based in Indianapolis, Indiana.
How the Company Makes MoneyMesa Air Group generates revenue primarily through capacity purchase agreements with major airlines, such as American Airlines and United Airlines. Under these agreements, Mesa operates flights on behalf of these airlines, receiving compensation for operating costs and a profit margin. Key revenue streams include ticket sales, passenger service fees, and government subsidies for regional air service. Additionally, Mesa may benefit from partnerships with other carriers for code-sharing agreements, enhancing its route offerings and contributing to its overall earnings.
Republic Airways Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple strong operating and financial outcomes — double-digit revenue growth, sizable improvements in adjusted EBITDAR, robust cash generation, fleet scale and a clear 2026 guidance framework — while acknowledging near-term disruption from the government shutdown/winter weather, a high one-time Q4 tax rate, and ongoing merger integration costs and complexity. Management presented a multi-year integration plan and set measurable targets for leverage reduction and earnings growth, indicating confidence in the upside once harmonization is complete.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Q4 Revenue and Adjusted EPS
Q4 total revenue of $464 million, up 21% year-over-year; adjusted EPS of $0.54 for the quarter (excluding merger items and with adjusted tax rate).
Full-Year Growth and Profitability Gains
Full-year 2025 total operating revenues of $1.7 billion, up $200 million (13% YoY); adjusted net income of $114 million; adjusted pretax income of $161 million; GAAP net income of $76 million ($1.87/sh).
Material Improvement in Adjusted EBITDAR
Adjusted EBITDAR of $342 million for 2025, up 31% YoY from $260 million; Q4 adjusted EBITDAR of $83 million, up 27% YoY.
Fleet Scale, Utilization and Capacity Growth
Committed fleet of 306 E170/E175 aircraft (275 operating + 31 non-operating lease relationships); fleet growth of 67 aircraft drove higher utilization (average daily utilization per scheduled aircraft up 8% in Q4) and block hours up 23% in Q4; guidance for 2026 block hours of ≥865,000 and revenue run-rate of ~$2 billion.
Operational Reliability and Safety Track Record
Nearly 100% controllable completion performance with 349 days of perfect controllable operations in 2025; carried 21 million passengers, ~1,300 daily departures and over 370,000 safe arrivals.
Stronger Cash Flow and Improving Leverage
Cash from operations of $322 million (up $226 million vs. 2024); net leverage improved from 3.2x to 2.7x as of Dec 31, 2025 with a target to be <2.2x by end of 2026 and <1.5x long term.
Strategic Merger and Integration Outlook
Completed Mesa merger (36 days included in results); combined company ~8,400 associates, expanded scale (12 crew bases, 142 destinations), and a multi-year integration plan expected to unlock operational and financial synergies with projected adjusted EBITDAR of $380 million for 2026.
Negative Updates
Significant Non-Controllable Cancellations and Weather/Shutdown Impact
Q4 experienced ~3,200 more non-controllable cancellations vs. Q4 2024 due to the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, severe winter weather and air traffic control staffing, contributing to a 3% lower completion factor for the quarter.
High Q4 Effective Tax Rate Depressed GAAP EPS
Q4 effective tax rate of 70% (well above normal) driven by non-deductibility of certain items, materially reducing GAAP EPS to $0.12 for the quarter; adjusted tax rate was ~29% when normalizing.
Merger-Related Costs and Integration Drag
Incurred $15 million of merger-related items in Q4; integration activities expected to continue through 2026 and be substantially completed by end of 2027, creating near-term cost/complexity and an unspecified drag that is baked into 2026 guidance.
Concentration in Congested Markets Increases Operational Risk
High concentration in Northeast corridor and other dense hubs (NYC, Washington, Boston) increases exposure to air traffic control and congestion-related disruptions relative to peers.
Leverage Still Above Target
While leverage improved to 2.7x, it remains above management's 2026 target of <2.2x and long-term <1.5x, implying continued focus needed on debt reduction (planned $165 million extinguishment in 2026).
Uncertainties Around Delivery Timing and CapEx
26 unallocated aircraft deliveries through 2029 provide flexibility but timing/placement remains uncertain; 2026 gross CapEx ~ $170 million (net ~$90 million), and future aircraft-related CapEx timing is still to be finalized with partners.
Company Guidance
Republic guided 2026 toward a full‑year run rate with block hours of 865,000+ (reflecting a full year of Mesa flying), total revenues of about $2.0 billion, and adjusted EBITDAR of roughly $380 million; capital plans include CapEx of about $90 million net of new financings (≈$170 million gross) and disciplined debt extinguishment of ~$165 million, with a leverage target below 2.2x by year‑end 2026 (long‑term target <1.5x). The outlook assumes improved aircraft availability and utilization as Mesa integration milestones progress, a defined Embraer delivery schedule through 2029 (three United placements this year and ~26 unallocated deliveries thereafter, first delivery mid‑Q1 2027), and a focus on balancing integration execution with debt reduction to drive stronger earnings in 2027.Republic Airways Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mesa Air Group is facing significant financial challenges. The income statement shows declining revenue and substantial losses, with a negative net profit margin of -39.94%. The balance sheet reveals high leverage and negative equity, with a concerning debt-to-equity ratio of -1.96. Cash flow analysis indicates some improvement in free cash flow, but overall cash management is weak.Income Statement
Mesa Air Group's income statement reveals significant challenges. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows a negative net profit margin of -39.94%, indicating substantial losses. Revenue has declined by 6.05% compared to the previous year, and the EBIT and EBITDA margins are both negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies. Despite a gross profit margin of 31.77%, the overall profitability is severely impacted by high operating expenses and declining revenue.30
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet highlights financial instability, with a negative stockholders' equity of -$52.64 million in the TTM period, leading to a concerning debt-to-equity ratio of -1.96. This indicates that liabilities significantly exceed equity, posing a risk to financial stability. The return on equity is positive at 3.80%, but this is due to the negative equity, which distorts the metric. Overall, the balance sheet reflects high leverage and financial distress.25
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis shows some positive aspects, with a free cash flow growth rate of 41.98% in the TTM period. However, the operating cash flow is negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is -0.27, indicating cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.15, suggesting that free cash flow is slightly better than net income, but overall cash flow management remains a concern.35
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2025 | Dec 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 | Sep 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 588.71M | 1.47B | 1.43B | 1.33B | 503.59M | 545.07M |
| Gross Profit | 135.45M | 365.00M | 323.50M | 339.50M | -1.92M | 48.58M |
| EBITDA | -158.94M | 261.60M | 296.50M | 280.50M | 139.99M | 163.41M |
| Net Income | -98.97M | 64.60M | 54.80M | 67.80M | 16.59M | 27.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 158.93M | 2.77B | 2.73B | 1.27B | 1.60B | 1.64B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 41.78M | 302.00M | 342.20M | 61.02M | 123.87M | 102.84M |
| Total Debt | 103.10M | 1.14B | 1.24B | 633.70M | 718.05M | 838.19M |
| Total Liabilities | 211.57M | 1.65B | 1.68B | 960.19M | 1.12B | 1.19B |
| Stockholders Equity | -52.64M | 1.12B | 1.05B | 308.17M | 488.05M | 457.86M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -9.70M | -33.50M | -62.40M | -9.80M | 115.72M | 148.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 41.58M | 226.10M | 329.20M | 189.70M | 132.87M | 174.66M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.28M | -105.50M | -420.90M | -137.00M | -33.47M | -26.67M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -72.38M | -102.20M | 107.10M | -189.80M | -78.37M | -117.66M |
Republic Airways Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
18.99
Price Trends
19.07
Positive
20.08
Positive
18.60
Positive
Market Momentum
0.36
Positive
53.87
Neutral
31.38
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RJET, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.99, below the 50-day MA of 19.07, and above the 200-day MA of 18.60, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RJET.
Republic Airways Holdings Risk Analysis
Republic Airways Holdings disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Republic Airways Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Republic Airways Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
56 Neutral | $1.55B | -34.43 | -4.22% | ― | 3.29% | -983.31% | |
55 Neutral | $898.03M | 14.47 | 8.62% | ― | 4.27% | 28.47% | |
52 Neutral | $831.19M | -7.87 | -27.87% | ― | 1.77% | -1964.48% | |
50 Neutral | $1.63B | -2.79 | -26.05% | ― | -2.49% | 47.88% | |
38 Underperform | $948.77M | 9.64 | -15.54% | ― | -15.06% | -119.79% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Republic Airways Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Republic Airways Appoints David Grizzle as CEO
Neutral
Dec 15, 2025
David Grizzle, who has been the non-executive Chairman of Republic Airways Holdings Inc. since 2017, was appointed as Chairman and CEO in July 2025 due to the unexpected departure of the former CEO to the Federal Aviation Administration. Grizzle will serve as CEO during the integration of Mesa Airlines, with plans for Matthew Koscal, the current President and Chief Commercial Officer, to be promoted to CEO in 2026. Grizzle will then return to his role as non-executive Chairman. Final decisions on succession will be made by the Board of Directors at a later date.
The most recent analyst rating on (RJET) stock is a Sell with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Republic Airways Holdings stock, see the RJET Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.