Rand Capital (RAND) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: N/A
• Dividend Yield: 16.23%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.74K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.09
• Revenue Growth: -72.52%
• EPS Growth: -184.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.37
• Shares Outstanding: 2,969,814
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,145
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,744
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.48
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.97
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 10.00T>
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: -9.78
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -8.93
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -5.46
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $13.50 ▲(17.39% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 03/06/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial positioning (low leverage and solid cash generation) and attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are moderated by uneven operating results and earnings quality concerns highlighted by revenue volatility, plus mixed technicals with weaker long-term trend positioning and elevated short-term momentum readings.

Positive Factors

Strong Investment Income Growth

The consistent growth in investment income reflects Rand Capital's effective strategy in expanding its debt investment portfolio, which enhances long-term revenue stability and supports future growth.

Debt-Focused Portfolio Strategy

Shifting towards a debt-focused portfolio increases income stability through predictable interest payments, aligning with Rand Capital's strategy to generate consistent cash flows and reduce volatility.

Strategic Debt Reduction

Reducing debt enhances financial flexibility and reduces interest expenses, allowing Rand Capital to allocate more resources towards growth opportunities and shareholder returns.

Negative Factors

Portfolio Value Decline

A decline in portfolio value can impact Rand Capital's asset base and future income potential, potentially affecting its ability to generate returns and maintain financial health.

Uncertain Economic Environment

Economic uncertainty can affect the performance of portfolio companies, leading to potential revenue fluctuations and impacting Rand Capital's investment returns and growth prospects.

Decrease in Number of Portfolio Companies

A reduced number of portfolio companies may limit diversification and increase exposure to individual company risks, potentially impacting Rand Capital's overall investment performance.

Rand Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Rand Capital Corporation is a business development company and regulated investment company specializing in private equity investments. The firm prefers to make investments through equity or debt instruments in lower middle market and in small to medium-sized privately held companies. It generally lends to more mature companies. The firm does not prefer to invest in real estate sector. It invests in companies that are engaged in the exploitation of new or unique products, technologies, or services. The firm invests in healthcare, consumer products, manufacturing, software, and professional services. It seeks to invest in companies based in the Western and Upstate New York region and its surrounding states with focus on Buffalo and Niagara region. The firm may invest in region within three to five hour drives from Western New York including Canada. It typically invests between $0.5 million and $1.5 million and the total investment in rounds is between $1 million and $5 million. The firm seeks to invest up to maximum of $3 million total per company as part of follow-on investments. It invest in startups and companies having annual revenue up to $10 million. It invest companies having EBITDA up to $5 million. The firm Follow-on investment(s) up to a targeted maximum of $2 million to $3 million total per company. The firm frequently participate three investment round. The firm seeks to be a lead investor in companies within its geographical area and participates in syndicate/co-invest with other investors outside it. It prefers to invest in businesses that are unique or possess proprietary right. The firm prefers to be a minority investor and seeks to take a Board seat in its portfolio companies. It typically holds its investments for a period of five to seven years. Rand Capital Corporation was founded in 1969 and is based in Buffalo, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Rand Capital makes money primarily through the interest and dividends earned on its investment portfolio of debt and equity securities. The company generates revenue from the capital gains realized from the sale of these investments. Rand Capital strategically invests in companies with high growth potential, which allows it to benefit from the appreciation in the value of its investments. Additionally, the company may engage in partnerships with other investment firms or venture capitalists to co-invest in promising businesses, further enhancing its revenue potential. The performance of its investment portfolio, market conditions, and effective management of its investment strategies are significant factors contributing to its earnings.

Rand Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength is a key positive (near-zero/zero debt recently and a solid equity base), and cash generation has generally tracked earnings with especially strong recent free cash flow. Offsetting this is a highly uneven income profile, including a meaningful loss in 2022 and an extreme 2025 revenue collapse with unusually high net income, suggesting reliance on non-recurring items and weaker earnings predictability.

Income Statement

Profitability has been very strong in most years (2020–2021 and 2023–2024 show high profit margins), indicating good earnings power when revenue is healthy. However, results are volatile: 2022 posted a meaningful loss and 2025 shows an extreme revenue collapse (revenue down sharply versus 2024) alongside unusually high net income, which points to heavy dependence on non-recurring items rather than stable, repeatable revenue. Overall: strong margin profile, but weak consistency and predictability of the revenue/earnings stream.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively positioned with very low leverage in recent years (debt near-zero in 2024 and zero in 2025), and a large equity base relative to total assets. Returns on equity have generally been positive and decent in profitable years, supporting the quality of capital structure. The main drawback is variability in returns (including a negative year in 2022) and a history of higher debt in earlier periods (notably 2020 and 2023), though the current trajectory is clearly toward lower leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and, in most years, cash flow has tracked net income closely (free cash flow roughly matching net income across the period), which supports earnings quality. 2024 and 2025 show especially strong cash flow, and 2025’s free cash flow growth is exceptionally high. The key weakness is volatility—operating cash flow coverage swings widely year to year, and the very large 2025 jump likely reflects one-time factors rather than a smooth operating trend.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.47M	11.22M	9.14M	682.44K	17.21M
Gross Profit	4.77M	10.13M	8.09M	612.48K	16.59M
EBITDA	-7.86M	8.81M	6.85M	-545.83K	15.77M
Net Income	-8.04M	8.83M	6.53M	-881.85K	15.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	53.20M	72.46M	81.02M	63.48M	65.64M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.21M	834.80K	3.30M	1.37M	833.88K
Total Debt	0.00	600.00K	16.25M	2.55M	0.00
Total Liabilities	1.01M	7.12M	20.21M	5.76M	4.90M
Stockholders Equity	52.18M	65.33M	60.82M	57.72M	60.75M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	11.25M	15.33M	6.12M	252.37K	6.38M
Operating Cash Flow	11.25M	15.33M	6.12M	252.37K	6.38M
Investing Cash Flow	990.80K	0.00	-14.46M	3.54M	-10.32M
Financing Cash Flow	-7.88M	-17.79M	10.27M	282.75K	-15.59M

Rand Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 11.50
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RAND, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 11.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.27, above the 50-day MA of 11.30, and below the 200-day MA of 13.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for RAND.

Rand Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RAND	74 Outperform	―	-4.16	-19.46%	16.23%	-72.52%	-184.36%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
GLAD	59 Neutral	$414.36M	19.71	7.40%	9.31%	41.12%	-40.68%
PNNT	59 Neutral	$329.75M	10.64	5.38%	16.61%	-3.09%	200.66%
OFS	56 Neutral	$53.06M	-1.93	-22.40%	25.87%	-14.76%	―
MRCC	56 Neutral	$97.50M	12.10	-2.86%	14.03%	-34.92%	-132.22%
TCPC	53 Neutral	$334.79M	4.23	-12.86%	21.13%	-91.81%	78.46%

Rand Capital Corporate Events

Rand Capital Reports 2025 Results, Highlights Strengthened Liquidity

For the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, Rand Capital reported total investment income of $1.3 million for the quarter and $6.5 million for the year, reflecting lower interest income following portfolio repayments and slower deal origination. Net investment income was $600,000, or $0.20 per share, in the quarter and $1.80 per share for 2025, while net asset value stood at $17.57 per share and total net assets were $52.2 million at year-end.

During 2025, Rand received approximately $17.8 million from loan repayments and equity realizations and deployed $6.6 million into primarily interest-earning assets, shifting its portfolio to 79% debt and 21% equity and ending the year with $23 million in total liquidity and no debt. The portfolio’s fair value declined 32% to $48.5 million due to repayments and valuation adjustments, but the company strengthened its balance sheet, increased cash to $4.2 million, maintained full availability under its $25 million credit facility, and paid $1.72 per share in cash dividends, underscoring an emphasis on liquidity, income generation, and prudent capital allocation.

The most recent analyst rating on (RAND) stock is a Hold with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rand Capital stock, see the RAND Stock Forecast page.