Rand Capital (RAND) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: N/A
• Dividend Yield: 16.23%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.74K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.12
• Revenue Growth: -72.52%
• EPS Growth: -184.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): -0.75
• Shares Outstanding: 2,969,814
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,145
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,744
• PEG Ratio: 0.16
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.76
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.43
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.24
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 10.00T>
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: -3.42
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -3.36
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.40
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.00 ▲(4.35% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 12/30/25
• Date: Action: Downgraded 12/30/25

The score is held back primarily by the sharp TTM profitability decline and bearish price trend (well below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting these, RAND’s balance sheet strength (no debt, high liquidity) and very high dividend yield provide support, while the latest earnings call was moderately positive on liquidity and net investment income but flagged meaningful pressures (NAV decline, realized loss, and rising PIK reliance).

Positive Factors

Strong Investment Income Growth

The consistent growth in investment income reflects Rand Capital's effective strategy in expanding its debt investment portfolio, which enhances long-term revenue stability and supports future growth.

Debt-Focused Portfolio Strategy

Shifting towards a debt-focused portfolio increases income stability through predictable interest payments, aligning with Rand Capital's strategy to generate consistent cash flows and reduce volatility.

Strategic Debt Reduction

Reducing debt enhances financial flexibility and reduces interest expenses, allowing Rand Capital to allocate more resources towards growth opportunities and shareholder returns.

Negative Factors

Portfolio Value Decline

A decline in portfolio value can impact Rand Capital's asset base and future income potential, potentially affecting its ability to generate returns and maintain financial health.

Uncertain Economic Environment

Economic uncertainty can affect the performance of portfolio companies, leading to potential revenue fluctuations and impacting Rand Capital's investment returns and growth prospects.

Decrease in Number of Portfolio Companies

A reduced number of portfolio companies may limit diversification and increase exposure to individual company risks, potentially impacting Rand Capital's overall investment performance.

Rand Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Rand Capital Corporation is a business development company and regulated investment company specializing in private equity investments. The firm prefers to make investments through equity or debt instruments in lower middle market and in small to medium-sized privately held companies. It generally lends to more mature companies. The firm does not prefer to invest in real estate sector. It invests in companies that are engaged in the exploitation of new or unique products, technologies, or services. The firm invests in healthcare, consumer products, manufacturing, software, and professional services. It seeks to invest in companies based in the Western and Upstate New York region and its surrounding states with focus on Buffalo and Niagara region. The firm may invest in region within three to five hour drives from Western New York including Canada. It typically invests between $0.5 million and $1.5 million and the total investment in rounds is between $1 million and $5 million. The firm seeks to invest up to maximum of $3 million total per company as part of follow-on investments. It invest in startups and companies having annual revenue up to $10 million. It invest companies having EBITDA up to $5 million. The firm Follow-on investment(s) up to a targeted maximum of $2 million to $3 million total per company. The firm frequently participate three investment round. The firm seeks to be a lead investor in companies within its geographical area and participates in syndicate/co-invest with other investors outside it. It prefers to invest in businesses that are unique or possess proprietary right. The firm prefers to be a minority investor and seeks to take a Board seat in its portfolio companies. It typically holds its investments for a period of five to seven years. Rand Capital Corporation was founded in 1969 and is based in Buffalo, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Rand Capital makes money primarily through the interest and dividends earned on its investment portfolio of debt and equity securities. The company generates revenue from the capital gains realized from the sale of these investments. Rand Capital strategically invests in companies with high growth potential, which allows it to benefit from the appreciation in the value of its investments. Additionally, the company may engage in partnerships with other investment firms or venture capitalists to co-invest in promising businesses, further enhancing its revenue potential. The performance of its investment portfolio, market conditions, and effective management of its investment strategies are significant factors contributing to its earnings.

Rand Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: the balance sheet is a major strength (zero debt and substantial equity), but TTM profitability deteriorated sharply with negative revenue and a deep net loss, and cash flow—while still positive—has weakened materially versus last year, increasing earnings stability risk.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show a sharp deterioration: revenue is negative and net income is deeply negative, with profitability margins also firmly in the red. While the TTM revenue growth rate is high off a low/volatile base, the core issue is the swing from strong profitability in 2023–2024 to a sizable loss in TTM, signaling earnings instability and elevated near-term operating risk.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a clear strength: TTM shows zero debt and substantial equity (~$53.6M) supporting the asset base (~$54.6M), which meaningfully reduces financial risk. The main weakness is returns: TTM return on equity is negative, reflecting that the current-period loss is eroding shareholder value despite the conservative capital structure.

Cash Flow

TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive (~$0.4M), and cash generation compares favorably to the reported net loss (free cash flow is close to net income in magnitude). However, cash flow is down materially versus the prior year (free cash flow growth is sharply negative), and the business has shown sizable year-to-year cash flow volatility historically—reducing confidence in near-term cash earnings power.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	-6.78M	11.22M	9.14M	682.44K	17.21M	3.46M
Gross Profit	-6.90M	10.13M	8.09M	612.48K	16.59M	3.04M
EBITDA	-9.64M	8.81M	6.85M	-545.83K	15.77M	2.11M
Net Income	-12.07M	8.83M	6.53M	-881.85K	15.80M	743.77K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	54.58M	72.46M	81.02M	63.48M	65.64M	60.97M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	9.49M	834.80K	3.30M	1.37M	833.88K	20.37M
Total Debt	0.00	600.00K	16.25M	2.55M	0.00	10.82M
Total Liabilities	958.27K	7.12M	20.21M	5.76M	4.90M	14.86M
Stockholders Equity	53.62M	65.33M	60.82M	57.72M	60.75M	46.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	400.53K	15.33M	6.12M	252.37K	6.38M	6.09M
Operating Cash Flow	400.54K	15.33M	6.12M	252.37K	6.38M	6.09M
Investing Cash Flow	14.39M	0.00	-14.46M	3.54M	-10.32M	-6.71M
Financing Cash Flow	-8.65M	-17.79M	10.27M	282.75K	-15.59M	-4.83M

Rand Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 11.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RAND, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 11.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.00, below the 50-day MA of 11.95, and below the 200-day MA of 13.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for RAND.

Rand Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
GLAD	59 Neutral	$420.01M	12.33	7.40%	9.31%	41.12%	-40.68%
PNNT	59 Neutral	$336.27M	13.14	5.38%	16.61%	-3.09%	200.66%
RAND	57 Neutral	―	-2.61	-19.46%	16.23%	-72.52%	-184.36%
MRCC	55 Neutral	$135.85M	-31.90	-2.25%	14.03%	-34.92%	-132.22%
OFS	54 Neutral	$57.21M	17.71	2.25%	25.87%	-14.76%	―
TCPC	50 Neutral	$406.39M	-44.24	-1.15%	21.13%	-91.81%	78.46%

Rand Capital Corporate Events

Rand Capital Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

Rand Capital reported its third quarter 2025 results, highlighting a decrease in total investment income to $1.6 million due to portfolio repayments and a slowdown in deal originations. Despite these challenges, the company achieved higher net investment income and maintained strong liquidity with no debt, positioning itself to capitalize on future market opportunities. The company also made new investments and managed its portfolio actively, including a significant investment in BlackJet Direct Marketing and follow-on funding for BMP Food Service Supply Holdco. Rand’s strategic focus remains on prudent investment and active portfolio management to drive long-term shareholder value.