Rand Capital Corp. (RAND)
NASDAQ:RAND
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Rand Capital
(NASDAQ:RAND)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
â–¼(-4.35% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held back primarily by deteriorating earnings/revenue trends and recent losses, despite a strong, low-leverage balance sheet and positive cash flow. Technical signals are neutral-to-weak (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation is supported by a very high dividend yield, but the negative P/E and earnings-call risks (income decline, nonaccruals, unrealized depreciation, and dividends exceeding NII) temper the overall outlook.
Positive Factors
Low Leverage / Strong Balance Sheet
Extremely low leverage and a large equity base provide durable financial flexibility. This conservatism reduces solvency risk, supports continued dividend policy and share repurchases, and gives management capacity to deploy capital or absorb further markdowns without forcing distressed asset sales.
Negative Factors
Falling Investment Income / Revenue
Sharp, persistent revenue decline and a return to net losses indicate weakening core earnings power. For a BDC reliant on interest and realization proceeds, sustained revenue deterioration limits distributable income and lengthens the timeline to rebuild dividends from earnings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Low Leverage / Strong Balance Sheet
Extremely low leverage and a large equity base provide durable financial flexibility. This conservatism reduces solvency risk, supports continued dividend policy and share repurchases, and gives management capacity to deploy capital or absorb further markdowns without forcing distressed asset sales.
Read all positive factors
Rand Capital (RAND) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$31.98M
Dividend Yield16.23%
Average Volume (3M)2.74K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)-0.06
Revenue Growth-77.45%
EPS Growth-198.20%
CountryUS
Employees4
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.10
Shares Outstanding2,969,814
10 Day Avg. Volume2,145
30 Day Avg. Volume2,744
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)0.64
Price to Sales (P/S)7.48
P/FCF Ratio2.97
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue-14.89
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-12.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-4.73
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Rand Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Rand Capital Corporation is a business development company and regulated investment company specializing in private equity investments. The firm prefers to make investments through equity or debt instruments in lower middle market and in small to ...
How the Company Makes Money
Rand Capital makes money primarily from returns generated on its investment portfolio. Key revenue/earnings components typically include: (1) interest income from debt investments (such as loans or other interest-bearing securities) made to portfo...
Rand Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a balanced picture: significant near-term headwinds (a 38% drop in total investment income, yield compression to 9.43% driven by nonaccruals, $2.0M of unrealized depreciation, and exposure to restructurings like MRES) are offset by meaningful strengths (more than $20M of liquidity and very low leverage, active deployment of $5.1M including a 13%‑priced term loan in AME, a $1.1M realized gain, a portfolio fair value increase to $51.5M, and maintenance of the regular $0.29/share dividend). Management frames Q1 as a transition quarter and emphasizes capital recycling, disciplined underwriting, and potential to originate higher‑yielding investments (13%–14%), but risks from nonaccruals and reduced earning base remain material in the short term.Positive Updates
Consistent Dividend Policy Maintained
Paid regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.29 per share and declared another $0.29 per share in April 2026, demonstrating commitment to a consistent, earnings-driven dividend strategy despite transitional quarter dynamics.
Negative Updates
Material Decline in Total Investment Income
Total investment income was $1.2 million in Q1, down 38% compared with the prior-year period, primarily due to lower interest income following the repayment of five debt instruments over the past year and lower fee income.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consistent Dividend Policy Maintained
Paid regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.29 per share and declared another $0.29 per share in April 2026, demonstrating commitment to a consistent, earnings-driven dividend strategy despite transitional quarter dynamics.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that in 2026 Rand will execute a disciplined, income‑focused strategy aimed at supporting a consistent, earnings‑driven quarterly dividend of $0.29 per share while rebuilding NAV ($17.16/share; net assets ≈ $51M) and prudently scaling the portfolio using balance‑sheet liquidity (~$20.1M available on a $25M revolver; $0.5M drawn; facility maturing 2027) and modest leverage; Q1 actions and metrics underpinning that guidance included $5.1M deployed (including a $4.0M investment in AME—$3.0M term loan at 13% plus $1.0M equity), ~$0.678M to acquire MRES senior credit, $0.4M follow‑on to FSS (FSS fair value $4.3M), $0.05M to KITECH, a realized gain of ~ $1.1M on Cybertz (≈$1.3M proceeds), investment income of $1.2M (down 38% Y/Y), net investment income $0.545M or $0.18/share, noncash PIK interest $0.244M (20% of investment income), total expenses $0.642M (down 19%), portfolio fair value $51.5M across 20 companies (80% debt / 20% equity), a weighted‑average debt yield of 9.43% (down from 11.3% at 12/31/25) while new originations typically price at 13–14%, and a renewed $1.5M share repurchase authorization—with management emphasizing selective deployment, maintained underwriting standards and active oversight (notably on FSS and MRES) to protect credit quality and NAV.Rand Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | -2.16M | 4.47M | 11.22M | 9.14M | 682.44K | 17.21M |
| Gross Profit | -2.68M | 4.77M | 10.13M | 8.09M | 612.48K | 16.59M |
| EBITDA | -6.80M | -7.86M | 8.81M | 6.85M | -545.83K | 15.77M |
| Net Income | -9.25M | -8.04M | 8.83M | 6.53M | -881.85K | 15.80M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 52.51M | 53.20M | 72.46M | 81.02M | 63.48M | 65.64M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 330.55K | 4.21M | 834.80K | 3.30M | 1.37M | 833.88K |
| Total Debt | 500.00K | 0.00 | 600.00K | 16.25M | 2.55M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 1.56M | 1.01M | 7.12M | 20.21M | 5.76M | 4.90M |
| Stockholders Equity | 50.95M | 52.18M | 65.33M | 60.82M | 57.72M | 60.75M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.78M | 11.25M | 15.33M | 6.12M | 252.37K | 6.38M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.78M | 11.25M | 15.33M | 6.12M | 252.37K | 6.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.78M | 0.00 | 0.00 | -14.46M | 3.54M | -10.32M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.61M | -7.88M | -17.79M | 10.27M | 282.75K | -15.59M |
Rand Capital Technical Analysis
Negative
11.50
Price Trends
11.12
Negative
11.11
Negative
12.30
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.09
Positive
45.75
Neutral
13.08
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RAND, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.87, above the 50-day MA of 11.12, and below the 200-day MA of 12.30, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.08 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RAND.
Rand Capital Risk Analysis
Rand Capital disclosed 2 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rand Capital reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Rand Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $428.14M | 6.11 | 9.10% | 9.31% | -46.94% | -51.89% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
54 Neutral | $31.98M | -23.74 | -17.33% | 16.23% | -77.45% | -198.20% | |
54 Neutral | $312.96M | -4.67 | -19.08% | 21.13% | -153.69% | -168.78% | |
50 Neutral | $248.13M | -30.83 | 0.01% | 16.61% | 122.81% | 43.00% | |
50 Neutral | $45.42M | -1.27 | -29.04% | 25.87% | -21.68% | -223.80% |
* Financial Sector Average
RAND
Rand Capital
10.77
-3.77
-25.92%
GLAD
Gladstone Capital
18.95
-4.88
-20.48%
PNNT
Pennantpark Investment
3.80
-1.78
-31.90%
OFS
OFS Capital
3.39
-3.77
-52.65%
TCPC
BlackRock TCP Capital
3.73
-2.74
-42.38%
Rand Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Rand Capital Navigates Transitional Quarter Amid Portfolio Rebuild
Negative
May 6, 2026
Rand Capital, a Buffalo-based business development company focused on lower middle market borrowers, reported that its first-quarter 2026 results reflected a transitional period marked by lower income and a smaller income-producing portfolio after...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Rand Capital Reports 2025 Results, Highlights Strengthened Liquidity
Neutral
Mar 5, 2026
For the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, Rand Capital reported total investment income of $1.3 million for the quarter and $6.5 million for the year, reflecting lower interest income following portfolio repayments and slower d...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.