Rand Capital (RAND) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: N/A
• Dividend Yield: 16.23%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.74K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.12
• Revenue Growth: -72.52%
• EPS Growth: -184.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): -0.75
• Shares Outstanding: 2,969,814
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,145
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,744
• PEG Ratio: 0.16
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.76
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.52
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.24
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 10.00T>
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: -4.95
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -4.87
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -3.48
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.00 ▲(4.35% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by the sharp TTM profitability decline and bearish price trend (well below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting these, RAND’s balance sheet strength (no debt, high liquidity) and very high dividend yield provide support, while the latest earnings call was moderately positive on liquidity and net investment income but flagged meaningful pressures (NAV decline, realized loss, and rising PIK reliance).

Positive Factors

Strong Investment Income Growth

The consistent growth in investment income reflects Rand Capital's effective strategy in expanding its debt investment portfolio, which enhances long-term revenue stability and supports future growth.

Debt-Focused Portfolio Strategy

Shifting towards a debt-focused portfolio increases income stability through predictable interest payments, aligning with Rand Capital's strategy to generate consistent cash flows and reduce volatility.

Strategic Debt Reduction

Reducing debt enhances financial flexibility and reduces interest expenses, allowing Rand Capital to allocate more resources towards growth opportunities and shareholder returns.

Negative Factors

Portfolio Value Decline

A decline in portfolio value can impact Rand Capital's asset base and future income potential, potentially affecting its ability to generate returns and maintain financial health.

Uncertain Economic Environment

Economic uncertainty can affect the performance of portfolio companies, leading to potential revenue fluctuations and impacting Rand Capital's investment returns and growth prospects.

Decrease in Number of Portfolio Companies

A reduced number of portfolio companies may limit diversification and increase exposure to individual company risks, potentially impacting Rand Capital's overall investment performance.

Rand Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Rand Capital Corporation is a business development company and regulated investment company specializing in private equity investments. The firm prefers to make investments through equity or debt instruments in lower middle market and in small to medium-sized privately held companies. It generally lends to more mature companies. The firm does not prefer to invest in real estate sector. It invests in companies that are engaged in the exploitation of new or unique products, technologies, or services. The firm invests in healthcare, consumer products, manufacturing, software, and professional services. It seeks to invest in companies based in the Western and Upstate New York region and its surrounding states with focus on Buffalo and Niagara region. The firm may invest in region within three to five hour drives from Western New York including Canada. It typically invests between $0.5 million and $1.5 million and the total investment in rounds is between $1 million and $5 million. The firm seeks to invest up to maximum of $3 million total per company as part of follow-on investments. It invest in startups and companies having annual revenue up to $10 million. It invest companies having EBITDA up to $5 million. The firm Follow-on investment(s) up to a targeted maximum of $2 million to $3 million total per company. The firm frequently participate three investment round. The firm seeks to be a lead investor in companies within its geographical area and participates in syndicate/co-invest with other investors outside it. It prefers to invest in businesses that are unique or possess proprietary right. The firm prefers to be a minority investor and seeks to take a Board seat in its portfolio companies. It typically holds its investments for a period of five to seven years. Rand Capital Corporation was founded in 1969 and is based in Buffalo, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Rand Capital makes money primarily through the interest and dividends earned on its investment portfolio of debt and equity securities. The company generates revenue from the capital gains realized from the sale of these investments. Rand Capital strategically invests in companies with high growth potential, which allows it to benefit from the appreciation in the value of its investments. Additionally, the company may engage in partnerships with other investment firms or venture capitalists to co-invest in promising businesses, further enhancing its revenue potential. The performance of its investment portfolio, market conditions, and effective management of its investment strategies are significant factors contributing to its earnings.

Rand Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Rand Capital's financial performance is marked by a strong balance sheet with a high equity ratio and a debt-free position. However, the volatility in income statement metrics, inconsistent revenue growth, and the negative EBIT margins reflect operational challenges. The cash flow has shown improvements, notably in free cash flow, but remains unstable, impacting overall financial health.

Income Statement

Rand Capital has shown significant volatility in its income statement metrics. The gross profit margin is consistently strong due to the nature of Asset Management, but net profit margin has been erratic, with recent profitability largely driven by non-operating income. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, peaking in 2023, then declining sharply in 2024, suggesting instability in revenue streams. EBIT margins have been negative in the most recent year, reflecting operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Rand Capital is relatively strong, with a high equity ratio indicating financial stability. The company has a debt-free position as of 2024, reducing financial risk. However, the return on equity has been inconsistent due to fluctuating net income, which could impact future returns.

Cash Flow

Cash flow metrics reveal some improvements, with a positive shift in free cash flow in 2024. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio was negative in prior years, indicating cash flow challenges. The company needs to stabilize its cash flows to ensure sustainable operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	-6.78M	11.22M	9.14M	682.44K	17.21M	3.46M
Gross Profit	-6.90M	10.13M	8.09M	612.48K	16.59M	3.04M
EBITDA	-9.64M	8.81M	6.85M	-545.83K	15.77M	2.11M
Net Income	-12.07M	8.83M	6.53M	-881.85K	15.80M	743.77K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	54.58M	72.46M	81.02M	63.48M	65.64M	60.97M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	9.49M	834.80K	3.30M	1.37M	833.88K	20.37M
Total Debt	0.00	600.00K	16.25M	2.55M	0.00	10.82M
Total Liabilities	958.27K	7.12M	20.21M	5.76M	4.90M	14.86M
Stockholders Equity	53.62M	65.33M	60.82M	57.72M	60.75M	46.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	400.53K	15.33M	6.12M	252.37K	6.38M	6.09M
Operating Cash Flow	400.54K	15.33M	6.12M	252.37K	6.38M	6.09M
Investing Cash Flow	14.39M	0.00	-14.46M	3.54M	-10.32M	-6.71M
Financing Cash Flow	-8.65M	-17.79M	10.27M	282.75K	-15.59M	-4.83M

Rand Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 11.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RAND, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.39, below the 50-day MA of 13.06, and below the 200-day MA of 14.74, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.58 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RAND.

Rand Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GLAD	70 Outperform	$474.91M	8.21	11.86%	9.31%	41.12%	-40.68%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
RAND	57 Neutral	―	-2.80	-19.46%	16.23%	-72.52%	-184.36%
PNNT	57 Neutral	$396.35M	12.03	6.83%	16.61%	-3.09%	200.66%
OFS	54 Neutral	$64.98M	20.20	2.25%	25.87%	-14.76%	―
MRCC	52 Neutral	$141.05M	-33.87	-2.25%	14.03%	-34.92%	-132.22%
TCPC	50 Neutral	$477.66M	-52.39	-1.15%	21.13%	-91.81%	78.46%

Rand Capital Corporate Events

Rand Capital Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

Rand Capital reported its third quarter 2025 results, highlighting a decrease in total investment income to $1.6 million due to portfolio repayments and a slowdown in deal originations. Despite these challenges, the company achieved higher net investment income and maintained strong liquidity with no debt, positioning itself to capitalize on future market opportunities. The company also made new investments and managed its portfolio actively, including a significant investment in BlackJet Direct Marketing and follow-on funding for BMP Food Service Supply Holdco. Rand’s strategic focus remains on prudent investment and active portfolio management to drive long-term shareholder value.