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Prospect Capital (PSEC)
NASDAQ:PSEC

Prospect Capital (PSEC) AI Stock Analysis

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PSEC

Prospect Capital

(NASDAQ:PSEC)

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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▲(12.78% Upside)
The score is held back primarily by weak and volatile financial performance (negative TTM revenue and net income). Support comes from a stronger reported balance sheet and currently positive cash flow, constructive earnings-call commentary on portfolio repositioning and liquidity, and moderately positive technical momentum; valuation is mixed due to a very high yield but a negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Strategic Asset Repositioning
The strategic shift towards first-lien senior secured loans enhances portfolio stability and reduces risk, improving long-term financial performance.
Effective Debt Management
Issuing long-term unsecured notes at a fixed rate strengthens the balance sheet and provides financial flexibility, supporting sustainable growth.
Robust Liquidity Position
A strong liquidity position ensures the company can meet obligations and seize investment opportunities, enhancing resilience and growth potential.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue and Profitability
Significant revenue and profitability declines indicate challenges in sustaining business operations and competitiveness, impacting long-term viability.
Negative Free Cash Flow Growth
Negative free cash flow growth suggests difficulties in generating sufficient cash to support operations and investments, limiting future expansion.
Low Income Yield from Real Estate
Low income yield from real estate investments may reduce overall returns, affecting the company's ability to generate consistent income.

Prospect Capital (PSEC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Prospect Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionProspect Capital Corporation is a business development company. It specializes in middle market, mature, mezzanine finance, later stage, emerging growth, leveraged buyouts, refinancing, acquisitions, recapitalizations, turnaround, growth capital, development, capital expenditures and subordinated debt tranches of collateralized loan obligations, cash flow term loans, market place lending and bridge transactions. It also makes real estate investments particularly in multi-family residential real estate asset class. The fund makes secured debt, senior debt, senior and secured term loans, unitranche debt, first-lien and second lien, private debt, private equity, mezzanine debt, and equity investments in private and microcap public businesses. It focuses on both primary origination and secondary loans/portfolios and invests in situations like debt financings for private equity sponsors, acquisitions, dividend recapitalizations, growth financings, bridge loans, cash flow term loans, real estate financings/investments. It also focuses on investing in small-sized and medium-sized private companies rather than large public companies. The fund typically invests across all industry sectors, with a particular expertise in the energy and industrial sectors. It invests in aerospace and defense, chemicals, conglomerate services, consumer services, ecological, electronics, financial services, machinery, manufacturing, media, pharmaceuticals, retail, software, specialty minerals, textiles and leather, transportation, oil and gas production, coal production, materials, industrials, consumer discretionary, information technology, utilities, pipeline, storage, power generation and distribution, renewable and clean energy, oilfield services, healthcare, food and beverage, education, business services, and other select sectors. It prefers to invest in the United States and Canada. The fund seeks to invest between $10 million to $500 million per transaction in companies with EBITDA between $5 million and $150 million, sales value between $25 million and $500 million, and enterprise value between $5 million and $1000 million. It fund also co-invests for larger deals. The fund seeks control acquisitions by providing multiple levels of the capital structure. The fund focuses on sole, agented, club, or syndicated deals.
How the Company Makes MoneyProspect Capital generates revenue through a combination of interest income, fees, and capital gains from its investments. The primary revenue stream comes from the interest earned on the debt securities it provides to portfolio companies, which typically have higher yields compared to traditional fixed-income investments. Additionally, Prospect Capital may earn fees from structuring deals and managing its investments, which can include transaction fees, monitoring fees, and exit fees when investments are sold. The company also benefits from capital gains when it realizes profits from its equity investments in the companies it finances. Strategic partnerships with other financial institutions and investment firms can enhance its deal flow and provide additional investment opportunities, further contributing to its overall earnings.

Prospect Capital Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong net investment income, asset repositioning towards first-lien senior secured loans, and effective debt management. The company also demonstrated a robust liquidity position and successful real estate exits. However, the low income yield from the real estate portfolio and significant net repayments posed challenges.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Net Investment Income
Net investment income for the September quarter was $79.4 million or $0.17 per common share.
Significant Asset Repositioning
The company increased its focus on first-lien senior secured middle market loans, with first lien mix increasing 701 basis points to 71.1%.
Effective Debt Management
Unsecured debt plus unsecured perpetual preferred was 80.8% of total debt plus preferred, and the company successfully issued $168 million in senior unsecured 5.5% notes due 2030.
Successful Real Estate Exits
Exited three property investments since June 2025, earning an unlevered investment level gross cash IRR of 23%.
Strong Portfolio Performance
Non-accruals as a percentage of total assets stood at approximately 0.7% based on fair market value.
Robust Liquidity Position
Balance sheet cash and undrawn revolving credit facility commitments stood at $1.5 billion as of September.
Negative Updates
Significant Net Repayments
Investment originations in the September quarter aggregated $92 million, with net repayments of $143 million.
Low Income Yield from Real Estate
Real estate property portfolio generated an income yield of only 5.1% for the September quarter.
Company Guidance
During the Prospect Capital First Fiscal Quarter 2026 earnings call, the company provided detailed guidance with several key metrics. The net investment income (NII) for the September quarter was reported at $79.4 million, equating to $0.17 per common share. The net asset value stood at $3 billion, or $6.45 per share, with a net debt to total assets ratio of 28.2%. The company's focus on first-lien senior secured middle market loans led to an increase of 701 basis points to 71.1% since June 2024. Meanwhile, second lien loans decreased by 292 basis points to 13.5%, and subordinated structured notes fell by 808 basis points to 0.3%. Prospect Capital announced monthly common shareholder distributions of $0.045 per share for November, December, and January, and since their IPO, they have distributed over $4.6 billion, or $21.79 per share. The company's real estate portfolio, represented by National Property REIT Corp, accounted for 14% of investments at cost, delivering a cash-on-cash multiple of 2.3x on recent exits. The weighted average cost of unsecured debt financing was reported at 4.54%, with the company maintaining $1.5 billion in balance sheet cash and undrawn revolving credit facility commitments. Overall, Prospect Capital continues to optimize its portfolio and funding strategy to enhance future returns.

Prospect Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Prospect Capital faces significant challenges in revenue and profitability, with a drastic decline in revenue and a negative net profit margin. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage but inefficiencies in generating returns. Cash flow stability is a positive aspect, though growth remains a concern.
Income Statement
Prospect Capital's income statement shows significant volatility. The company experienced a drastic decline in revenue and profitability in the most recent year, with a revenue growth rate of -66.27% and a net profit margin of -234.08%. This indicates substantial challenges in maintaining revenue and controlling costs. Historically, the company had periods of strong profitability, but recent performance raises concerns about its ability to sustain growth and profitability.
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.45, which is manageable. However, the return on equity is negative at -10.17%, indicating inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is relatively stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure, but the negative ROE highlights potential issues in asset utilization and profitability.
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis shows a mixed picture. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 3.86, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, free cash flow growth has been negative, reflecting challenges in maintaining cash flow growth. The company has managed to maintain a positive free cash flow to net income ratio, which is a positive sign of cash flow stability despite recent declines.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue-73.23M-276.83M467.36M87.30M739.88M1.15B
Gross Profit-197.65M-406.94M320.91M-60.90M622.47M1.02B
EBITDA-257.93M-469.92M262.83M-101.64M582.58M963.81M
Net Income-257.93M-469.92M262.83M-101.64M582.58M963.81M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.64B6.80B7.86B7.86B7.66B6.30B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments86.54M46.51M81.90M90.57M31.17M63.61M
Total Debt0.002.09B2.43B2.58B2.74B2.23B
Total Liabilities2.01B3.82B4.15B4.13B3.54B2.36B
Stockholders Equity4.63B2.99B3.71B3.73B4.12B3.95B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow163.55M178.92M282.10M284.66M-795.34M31.02M
Operating Cash Flow163.55M178.92M282.10M284.66M-795.34M31.02M
Investing Cash Flow464.89M344.25M-2.12M-505.51M-1.11B-154.81M
Financing Cash Flow-598.92M-558.25M-289.76M281.13M767.09M-11.97M

Prospect Capital Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2.66
Price Trends
50DMA
2.59
Positive
100DMA
2.60
Positive
200DMA
2.80
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.06
Negative
RSI
70.00
Neutral
STOCH
84.64
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PSEC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.58, above the 50-day MA of 2.59, and below the 200-day MA of 2.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.64 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PSEC.

Prospect Capital Risk Analysis

Prospect Capital disclosed 110 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Prospect Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Prospect Capital Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$5.48B10.1419.07%7.17%11.60%9.38%
77
Outperform
$14.77B10.3710.06%9.64%10.34%-24.16%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
66
Neutral
$952.13M14.155.43%14.17%36.15%-38.59%
58
Neutral
-3.19-5.29%22.04%-49.05%-231.10%
57
Neutral
$397.65M12.156.83%16.61%-3.09%200.66%
50
Neutral
$473.41M-52.76-1.15%21.13%-91.81%78.46%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PSEC
Prospect Capital
2.80
-0.82
-22.65%
MAIN
Main Street Capital
60.69
5.54
10.05%
NMFC
New Mountain Finance
9.07
-0.69
-7.07%
PNNT
Pennantpark Investment
6.03
-0.23
-3.67%
ARCC
Ares Capital
20.48
-0.24
-1.16%
TCPC
BlackRock TCP Capital
5.59
-1.78
-24.15%

Prospect Capital Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Prospect Capital Declares Dividends and Reports Q3 Results
Positive
Nov 6, 2025

On November 6, 2025, Prospect Capital announced the declaration of monthly and quarterly dividends for various classes of its preferred stock, as well as cash distributions to common shareholders, scheduled from November 2025 through February 2026. The company reported financial results for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, highlighting a net investment income of $79.35 million and a net income of $48.09 million, reflecting a strategic shift towards first lien senior secured loans and the exit of certain non-core assets. This strategic focus is expected to enhance the company’s portfolio performance and operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (PSEC) stock is a Sell with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Prospect Capital stock, see the PSEC Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Prospect Capital Issues $167 Million Series A Notes
Neutral
Oct 31, 2025

On October 30, 2025, Prospect Capital Corporation issued $167 million in 5.5% Series A Notes due 2030, under a deed of trust with Mishmeret Trust Company Ltd. The notes, which are senior unsecured obligations, will mature on December 31, 2030, and are expected to commence trading on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange on November 2, 2025. The net proceeds of approximately $160 million will primarily be used for refinancing existing debt and maintaining balance sheet liquidity. The issuance also includes foreign exchange forward contracts to mitigate currency risk, as the notes are denominated in Israeli shekels.

The most recent analyst rating on (PSEC) stock is a Sell with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Prospect Capital stock, see the PSEC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Prospect Capital Announces $167M Institutional Offering
Positive
Oct 28, 2025

On October 27, 2025, Prospect Capital Corporation announced the pricing of an institutional offering of approximately $167 million in 5.5% Series A Notes due 2030. The Notes, which are rated ilAA- by S&P Global Ratings Maalot Ltd., will bear interest at a rate of 5.5% per annum and are expected to commence trading on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange on November 2, 2025. The offering, which was oversubscribed, is expected to close on October 30, 2025, and aims to refinance existing indebtedness and maintain balance sheet liquidity. This move is seen as a strategic effort to strengthen Prospect’s diversified financing sources.

The most recent analyst rating on (PSEC) stock is a Sell with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Prospect Capital stock, see the PSEC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 13, 2026