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Privia Health Group (PRVA)
NASDAQ:PRVA
US Market

Privia Health Group (PRVA) AI Stock Analysis

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Privia Health Group

(NASDAQ:PRVA)

Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$26.00
▲(14.79%Upside)
Privia Health Group's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and positive earnings call outcomes. While technical analysis and valuation present challenges, the company's strategic growth and solid corporate governance contribute to a favorable outlook. However, high valuation metrics and sector-specific challenges warrant cautious optimism.
Positive Factors
Earnings Growth
The Arizona market entry is expected to be EBITDA positive faster than historical partnerships, driving further conviction into earnings growth.
Financial Performance
Privia Health Group's 1Q25 results show strong performance with beats in practice collections, revenues, care margin, and adjusted EBITDA compared to consensus.
Market Expansion
PRVA announced entry into Arizona with IMS, a high-performing multi-specialty practice, highlighting the strength of its model and ability to partner with bigger practices.
Negative Factors
Market Entry Costs
PRVA expects to continue targeting +20% EBITDA growth despite absorbing new market entry costs for AZ.
Regulatory Changes
Four experimental Medicare payment models, including one Privia participates in, will be shutting down by the end of 2025.

Privia Health Group (PRVA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Privia Health Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPrivia Health Group (PRVA) is a national physician organization that partners with medical groups, health plans, and health systems to optimize physician practices, improve patient experiences, and reduce healthcare costs. The company operates in the healthcare services sector, offering a comprehensive platform that integrates technology, team-based care, and a value-based care model to support physicians and enhance clinical outcomes. Privia Health's services include practice management, revenue cycle management, and population health management, aiming to deliver high-quality, coordinated care across various settings.
How the Company Makes MoneyPrivia Health Group primarily generates revenue through a mix of management services agreements and shared savings from value-based care arrangements. The company partners with independent physician practices, providing them with a suite of services such as practice management, billing, and technology solutions in exchange for a percentage of practice revenue. Additionally, Privia Health engages in value-based care contracts with payers, earning performance-based incentives when they achieve specific healthcare quality and cost-efficiency metrics. These value-based arrangements often involve shared savings mechanisms, where Privia Health and its partners share in the cost savings achieved through improved care coordination and patient outcomes. Key factors contributing to Privia Health's earnings include its ability to scale its platform, expand its network of affiliated physicians, and effectively manage patient populations to generate shared savings.

Privia Health Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -2.87%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Privia Health demonstrated strong growth and financial performance, with significant increases in provider signings, practice collections, and EBITDA. The strategic entry into the Arizona market and increased guidance for 2025 further highlight the company's positive trajectory. However, challenges in the Medicare Advantage space and potential headwinds in value-based care present areas of concern.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Growth in Provider Signings and Practice Collections
Implemented Provider growth of 11.7% year-over-year and Practice Collections growth of 12.8% to $798.6 million.
Significant EBITDA Increase
Adjusted EBITDA increased by 35.1% year-over-year, with EBITDA margin expanding 460 basis points.
Strategic Entry into Arizona Market
Partnership with IMS, one of the largest independent multi-specialty practices, with 70 providers and 28,000 attributed lives, valued at $95 million.
Increased 2025 Guidance
Raised full-year 2025 guidance due to strong first-quarter performance and visibility throughout the remainder of the year.
Healthy Balance Sheet
Ended the first quarter with $469 million in cash and no debt, providing significant financial flexibility.
Negative Updates
Challenges in Medicare Advantage (MA) Environment
Acknowledgment of a challenging environment for MA over the next three to four years, with no plans to enter new fully capitated MA contracts.
Potential Headwinds in Value-Based Care
Value-based care shared savings flat year-over-year, with pressures in the MA book due to V28 impacts and other regulatory challenges.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, Privia Health reported strong financial performance and raised its full-year outlook as a result of robust operating execution and growth across its markets. The company achieved an 11.7% increase in implemented provider growth and an 11.1% rise in value-based attribution, contributing to a 12.8% growth in total practice collections. Adjusted EBITDA surged by 35.1%, with the EBITDA margin expanding by 460 basis points year-over-year. Privia Health's strategic entry into Arizona, through a $95 million partnership with IMS, is expected to be EBITDA positive by the fourth quarter of 2025 and make a meaningful contribution to adjusted EBITDA in 2026. The company now operates across 15 states and the District of Columbia, serving 1.27 million attributed lives, with a diversified mix of commercial and government value-based care programs. As a result of this strong start, Privia Health has raised its 2025 guidance to the mid to high end of its initial range, while maintaining its guidance for attributed lives.

Privia Health Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Privia Health Group demonstrates strong financial performance, with impressive revenue growth and a robust equity base. The company's cost management efficiency and positive net profit margin are commendable. However, attention is needed on fluctuating EBIT margins and free cash flow growth.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Privia Health Group has shown impressive revenue growth over the years, with the latest figure reaching $1.74 billion, a significant increase from previous years. The gross profit margin is robust, indicating efficient cost management. Despite a slight decline in EBIT and EBITDA margins in the latest year, the company maintains a positive net profit margin, showcasing profitability. However, the fluctuation in EBIT margins could be a point of concern.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The company exhibits a strong equity base, with a healthy debt-to-equity ratio indicating low leverage, which is favorable for stability. The return on equity has improved over the years, reflecting effective utilization of shareholder funds. A high equity ratio further underscores financial robustness, though continuous monitoring of debt levels is advised.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Privia Health Group has demonstrated consistent growth in operating cash flow, which is a positive indicator of cash-generating efficiency. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting effective conversion of earnings into cash. However, the free cash flow growth rate has experienced some volatility, signaling potential fluctuations in cash availability.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.80B1.74B1.66B1.36B966.22M817.08M
Gross Profit
181.76M176.85M161.50M134.78M63.66M82.58M
EBIT
21.38M16.98M20.65M-19.12M-217.44M25.38M
EBITDA
28.73M24.25M27.18M-14.55M-214.97M27.22M
Net Income Common Stockholders
15.62M14.38M23.08M-12.06M-190.65M31.24M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
469.33M491.15M389.51M347.99M320.58M84.63M
Total Assets
1.18B1.14B999.90M792.81M686.37M328.97M
Total Debt
5.43M5.59M8.29M11.50M46.50M33.66M
Net Debt
-463.90M-485.56M-381.22M-336.49M-274.08M-50.97M
Total Liabilities
474.01M452.34M392.51M273.76M236.19M185.32M
Stockholders Equity
659.44M635.18M561.44M499.09M426.87M146.75M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
123.36M109.28M80.67M47.09M54.51M38.51M
Operating Cash Flow
118.36M109.28M80.78M47.20M55.06M38.89M
Investing Cash Flow
-6.26M-11.98M-42.97M-104.00K-32.77M-380.00K
Financing Cash Flow
6.10M4.33M3.71M-19.68M213.66M-767.00K

Privia Health Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price22.65
Price Trends
50DMA
23.38
Negative
100DMA
23.57
Negative
200DMA
21.65
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.23
Positive
RSI
41.43
Neutral
STOCH
44.59
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PRVA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 22.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.27, below the 50-day MA of 23.38, and above the 200-day MA of 21.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PRVA.

Privia Health Group Risk Analysis

Privia Health Group disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Privia Health Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Privia Health Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (54)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$1.86B39.536.05%3.72%-17.69%-10.24%
73
Outperform
$2.76B183.252.53%6.79%-18.52%
70
Outperform
$3.80B75.272.30%23.40%
67
Neutral
$1.37B64.371.73%3.00%
PHPHR
58
Neutral
$1.55B-15.97%16.29%66.01%
EVEVH
54
Neutral
$970.90M-10.99%10.24%2.63%
54
Neutral
$5.38B3.27-45.10%3.30%16.81%0.02%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PRVA
Privia Health Group
22.65
5.35
30.92%
OMCL
Omnicell
29.25
1.34
4.80%
PINC
Premier
22.57
5.19
29.86%
EVH
Evolent Health
8.27
-13.40
-61.84%
PHR
Phreesia
25.99
6.33
32.20%
BTSG
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc.
21.18
10.78
103.65%

Privia Health Group Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Privia Health Group Approves Key Proposals at Meeting
Positive
May 22, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Privia Health Group held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders via live webcast, where all three proposals were approved. The election of three Class III directors, approval of executive compensation on a non-binding basis, and ratification of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025 were confirmed, indicating strong shareholder support and stability in corporate governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (PRVA) stock is a Buy with a $26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Privia Health Group stock, see the PRVA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.