PROG Holdings (PRG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.20B
• Dividend Yield: 1.72%
• Average Volume (3M): 560.35K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.05
• Revenue Growth: 3.71%
• EPS Growth: 9.14%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,403
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Rental & Leasing Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.90
• Shares Outstanding: 39,545,593
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 857,922
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 560,348
• PEG Ratio: 0.17
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.73
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.82
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.35
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.65
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.77
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.10
• 1Y Price Target: $40.67
• Price Target Upside: 34.80% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.42
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.47B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $32.00 ▲(6.07% Upside)

PROG Holdings' overall stock score reflects a solid financial foundation with strong profitability and cash flow, despite a significant revenue decline. The valuation is attractive, and the earnings call provided a positive outlook with some challenges. Technical analysis suggests a neutral trend. The strategic corporate events, while positive, are not factored into the weighted score due to their separate consideration.

Positive Factors

Strong BNPL Business Performance

Sustained growth in the BNPL segment indicates robust demand and market penetration, supporting long-term revenue expansion and competitive positioning.

Strategic Acquisition

The acquisition of Purchasing Power is expected to broaden the consumer base and strengthen partnerships, aligning with strategic growth and diversification goals.

Improvement in Write-Offs

Improved write-offs reflect better credit management and risk assessment, enhancing financial stability and profitability over the long term.

Negative Factors

Significant Revenue Decline

A substantial revenue decline poses risks to financial health and growth prospects, potentially impacting market confidence and strategic initiatives.

Decline in Progressive Leasing GMV

A decline in GMV for Progressive Leasing suggests challenges in maintaining customer engagement and market share, which could affect future revenue streams.

Consumer Challenges

Consumer challenges like inflation and labor market issues may dampen spending, affecting demand for PROG's financial products and impacting revenue.

PROG Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

PROG Holdings, Inc. operates as an omnichannel provider of lease-purchase solutions to underserved and credit-challenged customers. It operates in two segments, Progressive Leasing and Vive. The Progressive Leasing segment offers lease-purchase solutions to customers for various merchandize in the furniture, appliances, electronics, jewelry, mobile phones and accessories, mattresses, and automobile electronics and accessories markets through point-of-sale and e-commerce retail partners, as well in-store, mobile, and online solutions. The Vive segment provides second-look and revolving credit products to customers that may not qualify for traditional prime lending through private label and Vive-branded credit cards. It offers lease-purchase solutions through approximately 24,000 third-party point-of-sale partner locations and e-commerce websites in 49 states and the District of Columbia. The company was formerly known as Aaron's Holdings Company, Inc. and changed its name to PROG Holdings, Inc. in December 2020. PROG Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is based in Draper, Utah.

How the Company Makes Money

PROG Holdings generates revenue through multiple channels, primarily by offering consumer financing solutions. The company earns money by charging interest and fees on the financial products it provides, including lease-to-own agreements and installment payment plans. Key revenue streams include origination fees, monthly payments from customers, and any late fees associated with missed payments. Additionally, PROG Holdings has established partnerships with various retailers and service providers, which allow it to reach a broader customer base and facilitate seamless payment options at the point of sale. The company's ability to leverage data analytics also enhances its risk assessment and underwriting processes, contributing to its overall profitability.

PROG Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

PROG Holdings demonstrates strong financial performance with significant revenue growth and improved profitability. The balance sheet reflects a prudent leverage strategy, while cash flow metrics indicate robust cash generation and management. The company is well-positioned for future growth, though there is potential to enhance operational efficiencies further.

Income Statement

PROG Holdings shows strong revenue growth in the TTM period with a 49.9% increase, indicating robust demand. The gross profit margin improved significantly to 49.5%, reflecting better cost management. Net profit margin also increased to 8.5%, showcasing enhanced profitability. However, the EBIT margin is relatively moderate at 9.3%, suggesting room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a stable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.90, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on equity is strong at 32.98%, demonstrating effective use of equity capital. However, the equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, which could provide further insights into financial stability.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.77, indicating strong cash generation relative to earnings. Free cash flow growth is positive at 7.07%, showing improved cash management. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 0.96, reflecting efficient conversion of earnings into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.51B	2.46B	2.41B	2.60B	2.68B	2.48B
Gross Profit	2.10B	2.46B	831.96M	2.60B	857.91M	793.67M
EBITDA	1.47B	1.85B	1.83B	1.98B	489.47M	510.66M
Net Income	163.87M	197.25M	138.84M	98.71M	243.56M	-61.47M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.55B	1.51B	1.49B	1.49B	1.62B	1.32B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	292.61M	95.66M	155.42M	131.88M	170.16M	36.65M
Total Debt	602.69M	655.06M	608.11M	612.09M	615.06M	79.52M
Total Liabilities	843.04M	863.49M	899.92M	921.45M	942.35M	331.27M
Stockholders Equity	703.56M	650.28M	591.33M	570.46M	679.41M	986.14M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	295.65M	130.21M	194.62M	232.81M	236.41M	391.62M
Operating Cash Flow	305.38M	138.53M	204.24M	242.48M	245.96M	455.96M
Investing Cash Flow	-112.56M	-79.17M	-38.83M	-53.53M	-82.17M	-114.53M
Financing Cash Flow	-121.93M	-119.12M	-141.87M	-227.22M	-30.28M	-362.55M

PROG Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 30.17
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PRG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 30.17 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.94, above the 50-day MA of 29.46, and above the 200-day MA of 29.69, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PRG.

PROG Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PRG	71 Outperform	$1.20B	7.66	24.56%	1.72%	3.71%	9.14%
WLFC	71 Outperform	$931.32M	8.41	18.91%	0.84%	27.90%	19.25%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
MPU	55 Neutral	$65.78M	-2.72	-62.46%	―	19.87%	-111.99%
CTOS	50 Neutral	$1.36B	-54.02	-3.00%	―	7.39%	34.57%
ALTG	49 Neutral	$154.08M	-1.86	-160.65%	4.77%	-3.95%	-47.70%
FPAY	38 Underperform	$150.23K	-0.05	―	―	19.51%	29.43%

PROG Holdings Corporate Events

PROG Holdings Announces Acquisition of Purchasing Power

On December 1, 2025, PROG Holdings announced an agreement to acquire Purchasing Power for $420 million, aiming to expand its ecosystem and enhance its payment solutions. This acquisition is expected to broaden PROG’s consumer base, particularly in employee-focused markets, and strengthen its partner ecosystem, aligning with its strategy to grow and diversify its offerings in the near- and sub-prime market. The transaction, anticipated to close in early 2026, will be funded through cash and debt financing, with Purchasing Power maintaining $330 million in non-recourse funding debt.

PROG Holdings Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend

On November 6, 2025, PROG Holdings, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.13 per share of common stock. This dividend will be payable on December 2, 2025, to shareholders of record as of November 18, 2025, reflecting the company’s commitment to returning value to its shareholders.

PROG Holdings Sells Vive Receivables for $150 Million

On October 20, 2025, PROG Holdings‘ subsidiary Vive Financial LLC sold approximately $165 million in receivables to Fortiva Funding LLC, a subsidiary of Atlanticus Holdings Corporation, for about $150 million in cash. This transaction is part of PROG Holdings’ strategy to improve capital efficiency and focus on its core businesses, including Progressive Leasing and the BNPL platform, Four Technologies. The company reported third-quarter 2025 revenues of $595.1 million and net earnings of $33.1 million, highlighting strong performance in its Progressive Leasing segment despite economic pressures. The sale of Vive’s portfolio is expected to enhance PROG Holdings’ financial flexibility and support its long-term growth strategy.