PROG Holdings (PRG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.47B
• Dividend Yield: 1.72%
• Average Volume (3M): 485.06K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.10
• Revenue Growth: 3.71%
• EPS Growth: 9.14%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,403
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Rental & Leasing Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.74
• Shares Outstanding: 39,575,810
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 622,500
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 485,058
• PEG Ratio: -0.38
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.58
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.49
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.64
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.20
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.72
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.85
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.96
• 1Y Price Target: $44.00
• Price Target Upside: 19.47% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.2
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.93B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $44.00 ▲(19.47% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

PRG scores in the upper-middle range primarily due to resilient cash generation and a favorable valuation (low P/E with a dividend). The latest earnings call adds support via upbeat 2026 guidance and product/GMV momentum in For, but the score is held back by leverage and near-term headwinds in Progressive Leasing, along with overbought technical signals that increase pullback risk.

Positive Factors

Resilient Cash Generation

Consistently positive operating and free cash flow, with FCF closely tracking reported earnings, indicates durable earnings quality and internal funding capacity. Over a multi-quarter horizon this supports reinvestment in technology, acquisitions, buybacks/dividends and provides a buffer during cyclical downturns.

Rapid Scale and Improving Unit Economics at For (BNPL)

For’s triple-digit GMV and rising adjusted EBITDA demonstrate the product shifting from investment phase toward sustainable profitability. Continued scale improves take-rate leverage, lowers per-transaction costs and strengthens cross-sell potential, making For a durable growth engine within the multi-product ecosystem.

Strategic Distribution Expansion via Purchasing Power

Acquiring Purchasing Power materially broadens employer-based distribution and diversifies originations channels beyond retail checkout. This structural addition increases addressable market, enhances recurring payment flows via payroll deduction, and creates new cross-sell pathways across leasing, For and Money App.

Negative Factors

Higher Leverage Post-Acquisition

Leverage jump to ~2.5x increases interest and refinancing risk and constrains capital allocation. Management’s stated deleveraging priority suggests resources will be redirected from growth/returns to debt reduction, potentially slowing reinvestment and making the company more sensitive to earnings volatility.

Progressive Leasing Portfolio Contraction

A materially smaller leased asset base and declining GMV signal durable headwinds to recurring revenue from the core leasing franchise. Reduced originations and a shrinking portfolio can depress interest and servicing income for multiple quarters, limiting overall topline recovery absent new channel growth.

Rising SG&A and Uneven Margin Trajectory

Higher SG&A as a share of revenue, driven by investments and one-offs, pressures sustainable margins if revenue growth lags. Combined with historical margin volatility, this raises execution risk: management must prove that tech and AI investments translate into durable expense leverage and margin expansion.

PROG Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

PROG Holdings, Inc. operates as an omnichannel provider of lease-purchase solutions to underserved and credit-challenged customers. It operates in two segments, Progressive Leasing and Vive. The Progressive Leasing segment offers lease-purchase solutions to customers for various merchandize in the furniture, appliances, electronics, jewelry, mobile phones and accessories, mattresses, and automobile electronics and accessories markets through point-of-sale and e-commerce retail partners, as well in-store, mobile, and online solutions. The Vive segment provides second-look and revolving credit products to customers that may not qualify for traditional prime lending through private label and Vive-branded credit cards. It offers lease-purchase solutions through approximately 24,000 third-party point-of-sale partner locations and e-commerce websites in 49 states and the District of Columbia. The company was formerly known as Aaron's Holdings Company, Inc. and changed its name to PROG Holdings, Inc. in December 2020. PROG Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is based in Draper, Utah.

How the Company Makes Money

PROG Holdings generates revenue through multiple channels, primarily by offering consumer financing solutions. The company earns money by charging interest and fees on the financial products it provides, including lease-to-own agreements and installment payment plans. Key revenue streams include origination fees, monthly payments from customers, and any late fees associated with missed payments. Additionally, PROG Holdings has established partnerships with various retailers and service providers, which allow it to reach a broader customer base and facilitate seamless payment options at the point of sale. The company's ability to leverage data analytics also enhances its risk assessment and underwriting processes, contributing to its overall profitability.

PROG Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash flow is a key strength (consistently positive operating and free cash flow with solid earnings quality), but income statement results are only moderate due to uneven margin trajectory. Balance sheet leverage around ~1x debt-to-equity in 2021–2024 is a constraint, and apparent anomalies in the latest annual revenue/debt fields reduce confidence in the most recent period’s financial statement quality.

Income Statement

Revenue was broadly stable from 2021–2024 with modest growth in 2024, while profitability improved materially versus 2020’s loss and remained positive through 2024. Net margins have been mid-single to high-single digit in recent years, but the trajectory is uneven (declines in 2022–2023 before recovering in 2024). The 2025 annual revenue and margin fields appear inconsistent/blank (revenue shown as 0 with positive earnings), which limits confidence in the latest period’s income statement quality and weighs on the score.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the main constraint: debt-to-equity moved from very low in 2020 to around ~1.0 in 2021–2024, indicating a more levered capital structure. Equity has been relatively stable and returns on equity were strong in 2021–2024, supporting the overall picture. However, the 2025 annual data shows total debt as 0 despite prior years carrying substantial debt, suggesting a potential data anomaly (or a major deleveraging not corroborated elsewhere), which increases uncertainty and caps the score.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow were consistently positive across all periods, and free cash flow has closely tracked net income (generally near a 1:1 relationship), indicating solid earnings quality. While free cash flow growth was negative in 2021–2024, 2025 shows a meaningful rebound, and free cash flow remains robust relative to reported profits. Overall, cash flow looks resilient even when earnings softened.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.41B	2.46B	2.41B	2.60B	2.68B
Gross Profit	794.53M	2.46B	831.96M	2.60B	857.91M
EBITDA	1.85B	1.85B	1.83B	1.98B	489.47M
Net Income	146.79M	197.25M	138.84M	98.71M	243.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.61B	1.51B	1.49B	1.49B	1.62B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	308.77M	95.66M	155.42M	131.88M	170.16M
Total Debt	609.39M	655.06M	608.11M	612.09M	615.06M
Total Liabilities	863.99M	863.49M	899.92M	921.45M	942.35M
Stockholders Equity	746.42M	650.28M	591.33M	570.46M	679.41M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	324.92M	130.21M	194.62M	232.81M	236.41M
Operating Cash Flow	334.96M	138.53M	204.24M	242.48M	245.96M
Investing Cash Flow	6.64M	-79.17M	-38.83M	-53.53M	-82.17M
Financing Cash Flow	-128.49M	-119.12M	-141.87M	-227.22M	-30.28M

PROG Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 36.83
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PRG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.95, above the 50-day MA of 32.63, and above the 200-day MA of 31.16, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.58 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PRG.

PROG Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WLFC	72 Outperform	$1.40B	12.28	18.91%	0.82%	27.90%	19.25%
PRG	68 Neutral	$1.47B	10.32	18.08%	1.72%	3.71%	9.14%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
MPU	55 Neutral	$56.96M	-2.28	-62.46%	―	19.87%	-111.99%
CTOS	50 Neutral	$1.70B	-66.76	-3.00%	―	7.39%	34.57%
ALTG	47 Neutral	$222.75M	-2.62	-160.65%	4.88%	-3.95%	-47.70%

PROG Holdings Corporate Events

PROG Holdings Completes Purchasing Power Acquisition and Financing

On January 2, 2026, PROG Holdings closed its previously announced acquisition of Atlanta-based Purchasing Power, an employer-focused voluntary benefit company that lets workers buy brand-name products and services via payroll deduction, in a $420 million all-cash deal funded with a mix of cash on hand and new debt. To finance the transaction and related costs, the company entered into a fourth amendment to its existing credit agreement, adding a $125 million incremental term loan maturing in 2029, drawing $135 million from its revolving facility, revising interest-rate grids and commitment fees, loosening leverage covenants in the near term and creating additional flexibility for restricted payments and receivables and warehouse financing. The acquisition brings Purchasing Power’s more than 360 employer relationships and access to over 7 million employees into PROG’s ecosystem, broadening its employer-based distribution channel and is expected to enhance its ability to expand payment solutions, deepen customer engagement and support its long-term growth strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (PRG) stock is a Buy with a $50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PROG Holdings stock, see the PRG Stock Forecast page.

PROG Holdings Announces Acquisition of Purchasing Power

On December 1, 2025, PROG Holdings announced an agreement to acquire Purchasing Power for $420 million, aiming to expand its ecosystem and enhance its payment solutions. This acquisition is expected to broaden PROG’s consumer base, particularly in employee-focused markets, and strengthen its partner ecosystem, aligning with its strategy to grow and diversify its offerings in the near- and sub-prime market. The transaction, anticipated to close in early 2026, will be funded through cash and debt financing, with Purchasing Power maintaining $330 million in non-recourse funding debt.

The most recent analyst rating on (PRG) stock is a Buy with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PROG Holdings stock, see the PRG Stock Forecast page.