PROG Holdings (PRG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.34B
• Dividend Yield: 1.72%
• Average Volume (3M): 343.22K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.09
• Revenue Growth: 3.71%
• EPS Growth: 9.14%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,403
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Rental & Leasing Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.90
• Shares Outstanding: 39,545,593
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 443,663
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 343,222
• PEG Ratio: 0.17
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.73
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.82
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.24
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.66
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.79
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.13
• 1Y Price Target: $39.67
• Price Target Upside: 16.75% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $36.00 ▲(5.94% Upside)

The score is anchored by solid underlying financial quality (strong cash conversion and healthy leverage/ROE) and attractive valuation (low P/E with a dividend). Offsetting factors are weak/uncertain growth (notably the steep TTM revenue decline) and a mixed technical backdrop, while the earnings call and recent acquisition add both execution upside and near-term risk.

Positive Factors

Strong free cash flow generation

Sustained FCF growth and an FCF-to-net income ratio near 97% provide durable internal funding for operations, dividends, and strategic investments. This cash conversion reduces dependency on external capital, supports capital allocation during downturns and underpins long-term financial flexibility.

Healthy capital structure & high ROE

A moderate debt-to-equity ratio with strong ROE indicates efficient use of capital and manageable leverage. This balance supports continuing underwriting activity and growth initiatives while retaining capacity to absorb shocks, enhancing long-term solvency and shareholder return potential.

BNPL and DTC growth momentum

Robust GMV expansion in direct-to-consumer channels and rapid growth at Four Technologies diversify revenue beyond lease-to-own, expand customer acquisition, and build scalable origination pipelines. Structural growth in digital BNPL supports longer-term market share gains and cross-sell opportunities.

Negative Factors

Steep TTM revenue decline

A near 44% trailing revenue drop materially weakens scale economics and pressures fixed-cost absorption. Persistent revenue erosion can undermine underwriting investments, reduce cross-selling efficiency, and necessitate dilutive or costly measures to restore growth, harming medium-term profitability.

Acquisition increases near-term leverage risk

The all-cash $420M acquisition, financed via additional term debt and revolver draws plus covenant loosening, expands distribution but raises leverage and interest exposure. Greater debt and integration demands can constrain capital allocation, elevate refinancing risk, and pressure credit metrics over multiple quarters.

Persistent consumer headwinds

Ongoing inflation and labor softening reduce discretionary demand and can suppress originations in lease-to-own and BNPL channels. Prolonged consumer strain elevates credit losses, reduces portfolio turnover and revenue generation, threatening the durability of growth and underwriting economics over several quarters.

PROG Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

PROG Holdings, Inc. operates as an omnichannel provider of lease-purchase solutions to underserved and credit-challenged customers. It operates in two segments, Progressive Leasing and Vive. The Progressive Leasing segment offers lease-purchase solutions to customers for various merchandize in the furniture, appliances, electronics, jewelry, mobile phones and accessories, mattresses, and automobile electronics and accessories markets through point-of-sale and e-commerce retail partners, as well in-store, mobile, and online solutions. The Vive segment provides second-look and revolving credit products to customers that may not qualify for traditional prime lending through private label and Vive-branded credit cards. It offers lease-purchase solutions through approximately 24,000 third-party point-of-sale partner locations and e-commerce websites in 49 states and the District of Columbia. The company was formerly known as Aaron's Holdings Company, Inc. and changed its name to PROG Holdings, Inc. in December 2020. PROG Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is based in Draper, Utah.

How the Company Makes Money

PROG Holdings generates revenue through multiple channels, primarily by offering consumer financing solutions. The company earns money by charging interest and fees on the financial products it provides, including lease-to-own agreements and installment payment plans. Key revenue streams include origination fees, monthly payments from customers, and any late fees associated with missed payments. Additionally, PROG Holdings has established partnerships with various retailers and service providers, which allow it to reach a broader customer base and facilitate seamless payment options at the point of sale. The company's ability to leverage data analytics also enhances its risk assessment and underwriting processes, contributing to its overall profitability.

PROG Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong cash generation (free cash flow growth 35% and FCF-to-net income ~96.8%) and solid balance sheet metrics (D/E 0.86, ROE ~24.5%). The key drag is the sharp TTM revenue decline (-43.8%), which raises durability and growth concerns despite healthy margins.

Income Statement

PROG Holdings shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data indicates a gross profit margin of 34.03%, which is healthy, but the net profit margin is relatively low at 8.57%. The company has experienced a significant revenue decline of 43.8% in the TTM period, which is concerning. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 12.37% and 76.63%, respectively, indicating efficient operations. Overall, while profitability margins are solid, the revenue decline poses a risk.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of PROG Holdings reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.86 in the TTM period, showing a manageable level of leverage. The return on equity is robust at 24.49%, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 45.49%, suggesting a balanced capital structure. The company's leverage is under control, and profitability from equity is strong, but the equity ratio could be improved.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a strong performance with a free cash flow growth rate of 35% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 96.81%, indicating efficient cash generation relative to profits. The company's cash flow position is strong, supporting its operational and investment needs effectively.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.51B	2.46B	2.41B	2.60B	2.68B	2.48B
Gross Profit	2.10B	2.46B	831.96M	2.60B	857.91M	793.67M
EBITDA	1.47B	1.85B	1.83B	1.98B	489.47M	510.66M
Net Income	163.87M	197.25M	138.84M	98.71M	243.56M	-61.47M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.55B	1.51B	1.49B	1.49B	1.62B	1.32B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	292.61M	95.66M	155.42M	131.88M	170.16M	36.65M
Total Debt	602.69M	655.06M	608.11M	612.09M	615.06M	79.52M
Total Liabilities	843.04M	863.49M	899.92M	921.45M	942.35M	331.27M
Stockholders Equity	703.56M	650.28M	591.33M	570.46M	679.41M	986.14M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	295.65M	130.21M	194.62M	232.81M	236.41M	391.62M
Operating Cash Flow	305.38M	138.53M	204.24M	242.48M	245.96M	455.96M
Investing Cash Flow	-112.56M	-79.17M	-38.83M	-53.53M	-82.17M	-114.53M
Financing Cash Flow	-121.93M	-119.12M	-141.87M	-227.22M	-30.28M	-362.55M

PROG Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 33.98
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PRG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.53, above the 50-day MA of 30.97, and above the 200-day MA of 30.52, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.75 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PRG.

PROG Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WLFC	72 Outperform	$1.31B	11.51	18.91%	0.82%	27.90%	19.25%
PRG	68 Neutral	$1.34B	8.57	24.56%	1.72%	3.71%	9.14%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
MPU	55 Neutral	$38.88M	-1.62	-62.46%	―	19.87%	-111.99%
CTOS	50 Neutral	$1.50B	-58.81	-3.00%	―	7.39%	34.57%
ALTG	48 Neutral	$219.84M	-2.66	-160.65%	4.88%	-3.95%	-47.70%

PROG Holdings Corporate Events

PROG Holdings Completes Purchasing Power Acquisition and Financing

On January 2, 2026, PROG Holdings closed its previously announced acquisition of Atlanta-based Purchasing Power, an employer-focused voluntary benefit company that lets workers buy brand-name products and services via payroll deduction, in a $420 million all-cash deal funded with a mix of cash on hand and new debt. To finance the transaction and related costs, the company entered into a fourth amendment to its existing credit agreement, adding a $125 million incremental term loan maturing in 2029, drawing $135 million from its revolving facility, revising interest-rate grids and commitment fees, loosening leverage covenants in the near term and creating additional flexibility for restricted payments and receivables and warehouse financing. The acquisition brings Purchasing Power’s more than 360 employer relationships and access to over 7 million employees into PROG’s ecosystem, broadening its employer-based distribution channel and is expected to enhance its ability to expand payment solutions, deepen customer engagement and support its long-term growth strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (PRG) stock is a Buy with a $50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PROG Holdings stock, see the PRG Stock Forecast page.

PROG Holdings Announces Acquisition of Purchasing Power

On December 1, 2025, PROG Holdings announced an agreement to acquire Purchasing Power for $420 million, aiming to expand its ecosystem and enhance its payment solutions. This acquisition is expected to broaden PROG’s consumer base, particularly in employee-focused markets, and strengthen its partner ecosystem, aligning with its strategy to grow and diversify its offerings in the near- and sub-prime market. The transaction, anticipated to close in early 2026, will be funded through cash and debt financing, with Purchasing Power maintaining $330 million in non-recourse funding debt.

The most recent analyst rating on (PRG) stock is a Buy with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PROG Holdings stock, see the PRG Stock Forecast page.

PROG Holdings Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend

On November 6, 2025, PROG Holdings, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.13 per share of common stock. This dividend will be payable on December 2, 2025, to shareholders of record as of November 18, 2025, reflecting the company’s commitment to returning value to its shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (PRG) stock is a Buy with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PROG Holdings stock, see the PRG Stock Forecast page.