PROG Holdings (PRG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.24B
• Dividend Yield: 1.59%
• Average Volume (3M): 417.55K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.13
• Revenue Growth: 5.18%
• EPS Growth: 109.28%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,403
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 83
• Industry: Rental & Leasing Services
• EPS (TTM): 1.02
• Shares Outstanding: 39,543,750
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 426,111
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 417,550
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.27
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.82
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.47
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.43
• 1Y Price Target: $36.00
• Price Target Upside: 14.83% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $36.00 ▲(14.83% Upside)

PROG Holdings demonstrates a strong financial position with effective cost management and operational efficiency. The stock is undervalued with a low P/E ratio and offers a decent dividend yield, making it attractive for value and income investors. The positive earnings call and strategic initiatives further bolster confidence, despite some challenges in GMV and market demand. Technical indicators suggest a positive short to medium-term trend, although long-term resistance remains.

Positive Factors

Earnings Performance

PRG reported 2Q EPS of $1.02, above estimate of $0.83 and consensus of $0.80.

Fintech Growth

The growth in Progressive's 'Four' Buy Now Pay Later business was impressive and introduces a new fintech growth angle to PRG.

Negative Factors

Financial Guidance

Management lowered 2025 guidance by a considerable amount, due to macro deterioration leading to lower-than-expected GMV and leased assets.

Leasing Business Performance

The core leasing business is worse than previously anticipated and confirms the original thesis for downgrading PRG shares.

Market Competition

There is concern about increased competition in BNPL and broader point of sale finance, contributing to the downgrade of peer, pure-play BNPL player Affirm from Buy to Neutral.

PROG Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG) is a leading provider of lease-purchase solutions in the United States. The company primarily operates through its Progressive Leasing segment, which offers lease-to-own transactions for consumers who may not qualify for traditional financing options. PROG Holdings partners with various retailers to provide consumers with the ability to obtain merchandise such as furniture, electronics, appliances, and other durable goods through affordable leasing agreements. The company's services are designed to be flexible and accessible, catering to a broad range of customer needs.

How the Company Makes Money

PROG Holdings makes money primarily through its lease-to-own business model, which involves entering into agreements with consumers who lease merchandise from partner retailers. The company generates revenue from the lease payments made by customers over the term of the lease agreement. These payments typically include an initial payment at the start of the lease followed by regular periodic payments. Additionally, PROG Holdings benefits from partnerships with a wide network of retailers, which helps expand its customer base and increase transaction volumes. The company also earns revenue from fees associated with leasing agreements, such as late fees or early purchase option fees, contributing to its overall earnings.

PROG Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

PROG Holdings maintains a strong financial position with effective cost management and operational efficiency. While profitability metrics are solid, revenue growth has shown variability, presenting a challenge. The balance sheet is robust, with a strong equity position and no debt, reducing financial risk. Cash flow management is stable but could be optimized for better free cash flow generation.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a mixed performance with some strengths and weaknesses. The gross profit margin is strong at 56.5% for TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a decline in recent periods. The net profit margin is moderate at 11.5% for TTM, showing profitability but with room for improvement. The EBIT margin of 12.1% and EBITDA margin of 55.7% for TTM are healthy, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet presents a solid financial position with some notable strengths. The company has no debt in the TTM period, indicating strong financial stability and reduced risk. The equity ratio is a healthy 44.5%, suggesting a balanced capital structure. Return on equity is reasonable at 32.1% for TTM, showcasing effective utilization of equity. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial prudence and stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals moderate performance. Free cash flow growth is positive, though volatile. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.01 indicates efficient cash conversion. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is lower at 0.97, suggesting some challenges in translating profits into free cash flow. The cash flow position is stable but could benefit from improved consistency.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.46B	2.41B	2.60B	2.68B	2.48B
Gross Profit	815.42M	831.96M	807.92M	823.68M	607.58M
EBITDA	1.85B	1.83B	185.65M	333.53M	271.76M
Net Income	197.25M	138.84M	98.71M	243.56M	233.63M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.51B	1.49B	1.49B	1.62B	1.32B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	95.66M	155.42M	131.88M	170.16M	36.65M
Total Debt	655.06M	608.11M	612.09M	615.06M	79.52M
Total Liabilities	863.49M	899.92M	921.45M	942.35M	331.27M
Stockholders Equity	650.28M	591.33M	570.46M	679.41M	986.14M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	130.21M	194.62M	232.81M	236.41M	391.62M
Operating Cash Flow	138.53M	204.24M	242.48M	245.96M	455.96M
Investing Cash Flow	-79.17M	-38.83M	-53.53M	-82.17M	-114.53M
Financing Cash Flow	-119.12M	-141.87M	-227.22M	-30.28M	-362.55M

PROG Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 31.35
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PRG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 31.35 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.72, above the 50-day MA of 29.92, and below the 200-day MA of 34.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.50 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PRG.

PROG Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WLFC	77 Outperform	$1.02B	8.89	19.97%	0.67%	30.08%	32.62%
PRG	77 Outperform	$1.24B	6.19	34.34%	1.59%	5.18%	109.28%
CTOS	67 Neutral	$1.29B	―	-4.37%	―	6.21%	-177.57%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$10.65B	16.19	5.48%	2.12%	2.75%	-22.21%
ALTG	60 Neutral	$248.05M	―	-77.23%	2.95%	-2.09%	-977.36%
MPU	55 Neutral	$227.50M	―		―	942.99%	60.15%
FPAY	39 Underperform	$15.47M	―	-4.33%	―	19.51%	29.43%

PROG Holdings Corporate Events

PROG Holdings Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend

On August 6, 2025, PROG Holdings‘ Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.13 per share of common stock, payable on September 4, 2025, to shareholders recorded by August 19, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing value to its shareholders and may positively influence its market positioning by demonstrating financial stability and shareholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (PRG) stock is a Buy with a $48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PROG Holdings stock, see the PRG Stock Forecast page.

PROG Holdings Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend

On May 7, 2025, PROG Holdings held its annual meeting of shareholders, where the election of directors and approval of executive compensation were key actions taken. Additionally, the company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.13 per share, payable on June 3, 2025, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns.