PROG Holdings (PRG)
NYSE:PRG
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PROG Holdings
(NYSE:PRG)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$30.00
▲(2.81% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/14/26
The score is driven primarily by resilient cash generation and a low valuation (P/E ~8), tempered by a clearly bearish technical setup (below key moving averages with weak momentum) and leverage/portfolio headwinds highlighted in the latest guidance despite constructive 2026 profitability targets and a deleveraging plan.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Consistent operating and free cash flow across periods indicates the core leasing and financing model reliably converts earnings into cash. That cash resilience supports reinvestment, deleveraging plans, buybacks and dividends, providing durable financial flexibility through cycles.
Negative Factors
Higher Leverage
A near-term jump in net leverage materially tightens financial flexibility and increases interest and covenant sensitivity. Elevated leverage constrains capital allocation, forces prioritization of debt paydown over growth investments, and raises refinancing risk if consumer conditions deteriorate.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
Consistent operating and free cash flow across periods indicates the core leasing and financing model reliably converts earnings into cash. That cash resilience supports reinvestment, deleveraging plans, buybacks and dividends, providing durable financial flexibility through cycles.
Read all positive factors
PROG Holdings (PRG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.19B
Dividend Yield1.72%
Average Volume (3M)581.77K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.1
Beta (1Y)1.11
Revenue Growth3.71%
EPS Growth9.14%
CountryUS
Employees1,403
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRental & Leasing Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.74
Shares Outstanding40,058,370
10 Day Avg. Volume453,503
30 Day Avg. Volume581,774
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.38
Price to Book (P/B)1.58
Price to Sales (P/S)0.49
P/FCF Ratio3.64
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.24
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.60
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.71
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.80
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$43.75Price Target Upside49.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)4.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.03B
PROG Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
PROG Holdings, Inc. operates as an omnichannel provider of lease-purchase solutions to underserved and credit-challenged customers. It operates in two segments, Progressive Leasing and Vive. The Progressive Leasing segment offers lease-purchase so...
How the Company Makes Money
PROG Holdings primarily makes money by originating and servicing consumer lease-to-own and retail financing transactions facilitated through merchant and retail partners. In its lease-to-own offering (historically associated with Progressive Leasi...
PROG Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a balanced but constructive picture: meaningful execution wins (consolidated GMV growth, rapid scaling and improved profitability at For, margin expansion, cross-sell benefits, strong liquidity and EPS/EBITDA beats) offset by notable near-term headwinds concentrated in the Progressive Leasing portfolio (GMV declines, a smaller leased asset base, partner bankruptcy impacts), higher leverage following a recent acquisition, and some seasonal/one-time costs. Management communicated a clear plan to leverage a multiproduct ecosystem, invest in profitable growth, and prioritize deleveraging, suggesting confidence in returning to stronger organic growth and margin expansion in 2026.Positive Updates
Consolidated GMV Growth and For's Rapid Scale
Consolidated GMV (Progressive Leasing + For) grew 12.1% for full-year 2025. For (BNPL) produced triple-digit growth: ~144% YoY GMV growth with approximately $730,000,000 of GMV in 2025; For delivered consecutive quarters of triple-digit GMV and revenue growth (Q4 revenue growth cited ~132%; full-year GMV growth ~144%).
Negative Updates
Progressive Leasing GMV Declines and Portfolio Contraction
Leasing GMV was pressured in 2025: leasing GMV down 8.6% YoY for the year and Progressive Leasing GMV declined 10.6% YoY in Q4. The gross leased asset balance entering 2026 was ~9.4% smaller year over year, creating revenue headwinds into early 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated GMV Growth and For's Rapid Scale
Consolidated GMV (Progressive Leasing + For) grew 12.1% for full-year 2025. For (BNPL) produced triple-digit growth: ~144% YoY GMV growth with approximately $730,000,000 of GMV in 2025; For delivered consecutive quarters of triple-digit GMV and revenue growth (Q4 revenue growth cited ~132%; full-year GMV growth ~144%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided 2026 consolidated results to revenues of $3.0B–$3.1B, adjusted EBITDA of $320M–$350M and non‑GAAP EPS of $4.00–$4.45 (assumes ~26% non‑GAAP tax rate), while planning to prioritize debt reduction toward a long‑term net leverage target of 1.5–2.0x (net leverage was ~1.1x at 12/31/2025 and rose to ~2.5x post‑Purchasing Power close, excluding nonrecourse ABS); key segment outlooks include Purchasing Power contributing ~$680M–$730M of revenue and $50M–$60M of adjusted EBITDA (Q1 roughly breakeven and seasonally strongest in Q4), Progressive Leasing beginning 2026 with a lease portfolio down ~9.4% YoY but expecting write‑offs to remain in the 6%–8% range and SG&A roughly flat as a percent of revenue, and FOR expecting continued material GMV/revenue growth with expanding adjusted EBITDA (FOR posted ~$730M GMV in 2025, ~144% growth, ~$9.9M adjusted EBITDA / ~13.5% margin in 2025; take rate ~10% TTM), while Money App approaches EBITDA neutrality — all guided under a cautious macro assumption (soft consumer durable demand, no material decisioning changes, no big unemployment shock, and no assumed incremental share repurchases).PROG Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.41B | 2.46B | 2.41B | 2.60B | 2.68B |
| Gross Profit | 794.53M | 2.46B | 831.96M | 2.60B | 857.91M |
| EBITDA | 1.85B | 1.85B | 1.83B | 1.98B | 489.47M |
| Net Income | 146.79M | 197.25M | 138.84M | 98.71M | 243.56M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.61B | 1.51B | 1.49B | 1.49B | 1.62B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 308.77M | 95.66M | 155.42M | 131.88M | 170.16M |
| Total Debt | 609.39M | 655.06M | 608.11M | 612.09M | 615.06M |
| Total Liabilities | 863.99M | 863.49M | 899.92M | 921.45M | 942.35M |
| Stockholders Equity | 746.42M | 650.28M | 591.33M | 570.46M | 679.41M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 324.92M | 130.21M | 194.62M | 232.81M | 236.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 334.96M | 138.53M | 204.24M | 242.48M | 245.96M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 6.64M | -79.17M | -38.83M | -53.53M | -82.17M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -128.49M | -119.12M | -141.87M | -227.22M | -30.28M |
PROG Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
29.18
Price Trends
32.01
Negative
30.95
Negative
31.23
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.00
Negative
46.36
Neutral
48.11
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PRG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 29.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.53, below the 50-day MA of 32.01, and below the 200-day MA of 31.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PRG.
PROG Holdings Risk Analysis
PROG Holdings disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. PROG Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
PROG Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $1.19B | 8.05 | 21.17% | 1.72% | 3.71% | 9.14% | |
| ― | $44.92M | -1.41 | -62.46% | ― | 19.87% | -111.99% | |
64 Neutral | $1.36B | 8.05 | 16.94% | 0.82% | 27.90% | 19.25% | |
47 Neutral | $1.65B | -42.03 | -3.00% | ― | 7.39% | 34.57% | |
46 Neutral | $192.31M | -3.18 | -160.65% | 4.88% | -3.95% | -47.70% |
* Industrials Sector Average
PRG
PROG Holdings
29.60
4.71
18.91%
MPU
Mega Matrix
0.66
-0.05
-7.67%
WLFC
Willis Lease Finance
201.09
65.35
48.14%
CTOS
Custom Truck One Source
7.28
3.74
105.65%
ALTG
Alta Equipment Group
5.96
1.72
40.57%
PROG Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
PROG Holdings Updates 2026 Outlook After Purchasing Power Acquisition
Neutral
Mar 10, 2026
On March 10, 2026, PROG Holdings updated its full-year 2026 outlook, narrowing revenue guidance for both the group and its recently acquired Purchasing Power unit ahead of an Investor Day in New York. Following the January 2026 acquisition, the co...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
PROG Holdings Completes Purchasing Power Acquisition and Financing
Positive
Jan 2, 2026
On January 2, 2026, PROG Holdings closed its previously announced acquisition of Atlanta-based Purchasing Power, an employer-focused voluntary benefit company that lets workers buy brand-name products and services via payroll deduction, in a $420 ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.