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Prog Holdings, Inc. (PRG)
:PRG
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PROG Holdings
(NYSE:PRG)
Select Model
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$38.00
▲(13.77% Upside)
PROG Holdings shows strong financial performance and attractive valuation, which are the primary drivers of its stock score. The technical analysis suggests potential for upward movement, while the earnings call reflects both growth opportunities and challenges. The absence of significant corporate events further emphasizes the importance of these factors.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The significant revenue growth indicates robust demand for PROG Holdings' services, enhancing its market position and supporting long-term expansion.
Cash Generation
Strong cash generation relative to earnings ensures financial flexibility, allowing PROG Holdings to invest in growth initiatives and manage debt effectively.
Technological Innovation
The impressive growth of Four Technologies underscores PROG Holdings' ability to innovate and scale its platform, driving future profitability and market competitiveness.
Negative Factors
GMV Decline
The decline in GMV, exacerbated by external factors like the Big Lots bankruptcy, poses a challenge to sustaining growth and requires strategic adjustments to mitigate impact.
Increased SG&A Expenses
Rising SG&A expenses, driven by investments in technology and sales, could pressure margins if not offset by corresponding revenue growth, impacting profitability.
Demand Softness
Continued demand softness in key categories may hinder revenue growth, necessitating diversification and strategic initiatives to capture new market opportunities.
PROG Holdings (PRG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.32B
Dividend Yield1.53%
Average Volume (3M)388.53K
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.6
Beta (1Y)1.06
Revenue Growth5.18%
EPS Growth109.28%
CountryUS
Employees1,403
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRental & Leasing Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.02
Shares Outstanding39,543,750
10 Day Avg. Volume533,906
30 Day Avg. Volume388,530
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.17
Price to Book (P/B)2.77
Price to Sales (P/S)0.73
P/FCF Ratio13.82
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.19
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.62
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.26
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.05
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$36.33Price Target Upside8.77% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
PROG Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionPROG Holdings, Inc. operates as an omnichannel provider of lease-purchase solutions to underserved and credit-challenged customers. It operates in two segments, Progressive Leasing and Vive. The Progressive Leasing segment offers lease-purchase solutions to customers for various merchandize in the furniture, appliances, electronics, jewelry, mobile phones and accessories, mattresses, and automobile electronics and accessories markets through point-of-sale and e-commerce retail partners, as well in-store, mobile, and online solutions. The Vive segment provides second-look and revolving credit products to customers that may not qualify for traditional prime lending through private label and Vive-branded credit cards. It offers lease-purchase solutions through approximately 24,000 third-party point-of-sale partner locations and e-commerce websites in 49 states and the District of Columbia. The company was formerly known as Aaron's Holdings Company, Inc. and changed its name to PROG Holdings, Inc. in December 2020. PROG Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is based in Draper, Utah.
How the Company Makes MoneyPROG Holdings generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily by offering point-of-sale financing solutions to consumers. The company earns interest from consumer loans and fees charged to retail partners for facilitating payment plans. Additionally, PROG Holdings benefits from partnerships with various retailers, which allows it to expand its customer base and enhance transaction volumes. The company also leverages technology to improve its services, driving customer acquisition and retention, which in turn contributes to its overall profitability.
PROG Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with significant growth and profitability reported for Four Technologies and strong portfolio management. However, challenges remain with GMV decline due to external factors like the Big Lots bankruptcy and ongoing demand softness in key categories.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Exceeding Earnings Expectations
Non-GAAP EPS of $1.02 significantly exceeded the guidance range of $0.75 to $0.85 per share, driven by effective portfolio management and disciplined cost control.
Four Technologies Growth
Four Technologies delivered over 200% revenue growth and achieved profitability, with 167% GMV growth year-over-year. The platform is scaling, with 85% of GMV driven by active subscribers.
Strong Lease Portfolio Performance
Q2 write-offs came in at 7.5%, 20 basis points better than last year, demonstrating effective portfolio risk management.
PROG Marketplace Expansion
PROG Marketplace delivered double-digit GMV growth and is on track to surpass $75 million in GMV for 2025.
E-commerce Growth
E-commerce as a percentage of Progressive Leasing GMV was at an all-time high, representing approximately 21% of total leasing GMV.
Negative Updates
Impact of Big Lots Bankruptcy
The Big Lots bankruptcy resulted in a $40 million GMV headwind for the quarter, significantly impacting year-over-year GMV performance.
GMV Decline
Progressive Leasing's GMV was down 8.9% year-over-year, due to the Big Lots bankruptcy and tightening of approval rates to manage portfolio performance.
Challenges in Key Leasing Categories
Ongoing softness in demand for leasing categories such as furniture and large appliances continues to present headwinds.
Increased SG&A Expenses
Progressive Leasing's SG&A expenses increased to 13.8% of revenue, up from 13% in the previous year, reflecting active investments in technology and sales enablement.
Company Guidance
In the Q2 2025 earnings call, PROG Holdings provided updated guidance and insights on their business performance. The company reported consolidated revenue of $604.7 million, marking a low single-digit growth year-over-year, with consolidated adjusted EBITDA at $73.5 million and non-GAAP EPS at $1.02, surpassing the high end of their outlook. The leasing segment's GMV faced a year-over-year decline of 8.9%, impacted by the Big Lots bankruptcy and strategic tightening actions, yet adjusted for these, the GMV would have shown positive growth. The company's write-offs were at 7.5%, within the targeted 6% to 8% range, reflecting effective portfolio management. Four Technologies, part of PROG's Expand pillar, exhibited impressive growth, achieving 167% GMV growth and over 200% revenue growth, reaching profitability in Q1 2025. Looking forward, PROG Holdings raised the midpoint of their 2025 financial outlook, anticipating consolidated revenues between $2.45 billion to $2.5 billion, adjusted EBITDA between $255 million to $265 million, and non-GAAP EPS between $3.20 to $3.35. The company remains committed to maintaining disciplined decision-making standards, investing in growth initiatives, and returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.PROG Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
PROG Holdings demonstrates strong financial performance with significant revenue growth and improved profitability. The balance sheet reflects a prudent leverage strategy, while cash flow metrics indicate robust cash generation and management. The company is well-positioned for future growth, though there is potential to enhance operational efficiencies further.Income Statement
PROG Holdings shows strong revenue growth in the TTM period with a 49.9% increase, indicating robust demand. The gross profit margin improved significantly to 49.5%, reflecting better cost management. Net profit margin also increased to 8.5%, showcasing enhanced profitability. However, the EBIT margin is relatively moderate at 9.3%, suggesting room for operational efficiency improvements.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a stable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.90, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on equity is strong at 32.98%, demonstrating effective use of equity capital. However, the equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, which could provide further insights into financial stability.75
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.77, indicating strong cash generation relative to earnings. Free cash flow growth is positive at 7.07%, showing improved cash management. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 0.96, reflecting efficient conversion of earnings into cash.80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.52B | 2.46B | 2.41B | 2.60B | 2.68B | 2.48B |
| Gross Profit | 1.25B | 815.42M | 831.96M | 807.92M | 823.68M | 699.86M |
| EBITDA | 1.49B | 1.85B | 1.83B | 1.98B | 2.19B | 2.06B |
| Net Income | 214.71M | 197.25M | 138.84M | 98.71M | 243.56M | -61.47M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.45B | 1.51B | 1.49B | 1.49B | 1.62B | 1.32B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 222.03M | 95.66M | 155.42M | 131.88M | 170.16M | 36.65M |
| Total Debt | 603.38M | 655.06M | 608.11M | 612.09M | 615.06M | 79.52M |
| Total Liabilities | 785.92M | 863.49M | 899.92M | 921.45M | 942.35M | 331.27M |
| Stockholders Equity | 668.67M | 650.28M | 591.33M | 570.46M | 679.41M | 986.14M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 219.00M | 130.21M | 194.62M | 232.81M | 236.41M | 391.62M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 227.22M | 138.53M | 204.24M | 242.48M | 245.96M | 455.96M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -96.14M | -79.17M | -38.83M | -53.53M | -82.17M | -114.53M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -159.19M | -119.12M | -141.87M | -227.22M | -30.28M | -362.55M |
PROG Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
33.40
Price Trends
33.49
Negative
31.23
Positive
32.64
Positive
Market Momentum
0.18
Positive
40.77
Neutral
10.73
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PRG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 33.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.19, below the 50-day MA of 33.49, and above the 200-day MA of 32.64, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.73 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PRG.
PROG Holdings Risk Analysis
PROG Holdings disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. PROG Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
PROG Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $1.32B | 6.59 | 34.34% | 1.53% | 5.18% | 109.28% | |
66 Neutral | $961.79M | 8.39 | 17.97% | 0.71% | 30.08% | 32.62% | |
66 Neutral | $1.40B | -38.72 | -2.31% | ― | 6.21% | -177.57% | |
55 Neutral | $78.33M | -4.87 | ― | ― | 303.99% | -165.84% | |
48 Neutral | $230.75M | -3.50 | -148.75% | 3.17% | -3.46% | -222.37% | |
44 Neutral | $14.98M | -3.15 | -0.54% | ― | 19.51% | 29.43% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
* Industrials Sector Average
PRG
PROG Holdings
33.40
-14.34
-30.04%
MPU
Mega Matrix
1.36
0.35
34.65%
WLFC
Willis Lease Finance
141.24
-6.69
-4.52%
FPAY
FlexShopper
0.70
-0.33
-32.04%
CTOS
Custom Truck One Source
6.18
2.73
79.13%
ALTG
Alta Equipment Group
7.20
0.63
9.59%
PROG Holdings Corporate Events
Dividends
PROG Holdings Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend
Positive
Aug 7, 2025
On August 6, 2025, PROG Holdings‘ Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.13 per share of common stock, payable on September 4, 2025, to shareholders recorded by August 19, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing value to its shareholders and may positively influence its market positioning by demonstrating financial stability and shareholder confidence.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.