Prog Holdings, Inc. (PRG)
NYSE:PRG
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PROG Holdings
(NYSE:PRG)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$41.00
▲(26.82% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/07/26
The score is driven primarily by solid cash-flow quality and steady margins, supported by an improving balance-sheet narrative, plus favorable valuation (low P/E). Technicals are also positive with the stock trading above key moving averages. Offsetting these positives are the recent sharp TTM revenue contraction and business/macro headwinds noted on the earnings call, which keep the overall score from reaching the highest range.
Positive Factors
Cash generation and free cash flow quality
Consistent operating cash flow and FCF roughly in line with net income indicate high earnings quality and internal funding capacity. Durable cash generation supports investment in tech/AI, inorganic growth, dividends and debt paydowns, improving resilience over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Sharp TTM revenue contraction
A steep trailing‑12‑month revenue decline signals material demand weakness or portfolio run‑off that compresses operating leverage. Sustained top‑line contraction can erode margins, limit reinvestment capacity, and force reliance on acquisitions to restore growth over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation and free cash flow quality
Consistent operating cash flow and FCF roughly in line with net income indicate high earnings quality and internal funding capacity. Durable cash generation supports investment in tech/AI, inorganic growth, dividends and debt paydowns, improving resilience over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
PROG Holdings (PRG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.35B
Dividend Yield1.72%
Average Volume (3M)458.98K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.9
Beta (1Y)1.18
Revenue Growth0.45%
EPS Growth-25.85%
CountryUS
Employees1,403
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRental & Leasing Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.71
Shares Outstanding40,065,563
10 Day Avg. Volume425,913
30 Day Avg. Volume458,980
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.38
Price to Book (P/B)1.58
Price to Sales (P/S)0.49
P/FCF Ratio3.64
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.63
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.88
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.33
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.23
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.75Price Target Upside41.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)4.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.02B
PROG Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
PROG Holdings, Inc. operates as an omnichannel provider of lease-purchase solutions to underserved and credit-challenged customers. It operates in two segments, Progressive Leasing and Vive. The Progressive Leasing segment offers lease-purchase so...
How the Company Makes Money
PROG Holdings primarily makes money by originating and servicing consumer lease-to-own and retail financing transactions facilitated through merchant and retail partners. In its lease-to-own offering (historically associated with Progressive Leasi...
PROG Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a broadly positive tone: strong consolidated GMV (+54% YoY), revenue and earnings outperformance, triple-digit growth and profitability at Four, progress on deleveraging into target leverage, and an upward revision to full-year guidance. Offsetting items include a still-recovering Progressive Leasing portfolio (revenue decline and portfolio contraction), Purchasing Power remaining near breakeven with seasonal backloaded performance, and macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., higher gas prices) that require monitoring. Management emphasized durable portfolio health, AI and digital investments that are driving conversion and efficiency, and disciplined capital allocation. Overall, the highlights (meaningful growth, margin expansion, deleveraging, raised guidance, and tech/AI wins) materially outweigh the lowlights (leasing headwinds, seasonality at Purchasing Power, and macro risks).Positive Updates
Consolidated GMV and Revenue Growth
Consolidated GMV grew 54% year-over-year in Q1 (continuing operations GMV $806M). Consolidated revenue was $742.7M ($743M), up 11.1% YoY, driven by the addition of Purchasing Power and strong Four performance.
Negative Updates
Progressive Leasing Revenue and Portfolio Contraction
Progressive Leasing Q1 GMV was $393M, down 2.2% YoY; segment revenue was $597M, down 8.4% YoY. Gross leased asset balance was down 9.4% YoY entering the quarter and portfolio size ended Q1 down 5.4% YoY, creating a near-term revenue headwind.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated GMV and Revenue Growth
Consolidated GMV grew 54% year-over-year in Q1 (continuing operations GMV $806M). Consolidated revenue was $742.7M ($743M), up 11.1% YoY, driven by the addition of Purchasing Power and strong Four performance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
PROG raised its 2026 continuing‑operations guidance to revenues of $3.0–$3.1 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $343–$370 million and non‑GAAP EPS of $4.40–$4.80 (assuming ~26% non‑GAAP tax rate, no material change in decisioning, no meaningful rise in unemployment and no impact from additional buybacks); it expects full‑year lease merchandise write‑offs to remain in the 6%–8% range and to stay below 2.0x net leverage (Q1 net leverage was 2.0x after a $210M recourse‑debt paydown; Q1 recourse debt $650M, unrestricted cash $69.4M, total liquidity $419.4M). Management pointed to Q1 momentum behind the raise — consolidated GMV +54% to $806M, consolidated revenue +11.1% to $742.7M, consolidated adjusted EBITDA $90.3M (12.2% of revenue) and non‑GAAP EPS $1.24 — and cited segment trends supporting the outlook (Progressive Leasing Q1 GMV $393M, –2.2% YoY, portfolio down 5.4% YoY, gross margin 31.5% (+210 bps), adj. EBITDA $77M / 12.9%; Four Q1 GMV $280M +134%, revenue $35M +142%, adj. EBITDA $12.9M (37% margin), trailing‑12‑month take rate ~10%; Purchasing Power Q1 GMV $132.7M +10.3%, revenue $107.1M, adj. EBITDA $0.8M).PROG Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.52B | 2.41B | 2.46B | 2.41B | 2.60B | 2.68B |
| Gross Profit | 1.66B | 794.53M | 2.46B | 831.96M | 2.60B | 857.91M |
| EBITDA | 1.79B | 1.85B | 1.85B | 1.83B | 1.98B | 489.47M |
| Net Income | 148.12M | 146.79M | 197.25M | 138.84M | 98.71M | 243.56M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.04B | 1.61B | 1.51B | 1.49B | 1.49B | 1.62B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 79.50M | 308.77M | 95.66M | 155.42M | 131.88M | 170.16M |
| Total Debt | 936.12M | 609.39M | 655.06M | 608.11M | 612.09M | 615.06M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.27B | 863.99M | 863.49M | 899.92M | 921.45M | 942.35M |
| Stockholders Equity | 774.36M | 746.42M | 650.28M | 591.33M | 570.46M | 679.41M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 285.50M | 324.92M | 130.21M | 194.62M | 232.81M | 236.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 296.73M | 334.96M | 138.53M | 204.24M | 242.48M | 245.96M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -375.14M | 6.64M | -79.17M | -38.83M | -53.53M | -82.17M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -55.39M | -128.49M | -119.12M | -141.87M | -227.22M | -30.28M |
PROG Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
32.33
Price Trends
31.16
Positive
32.12
Positive
31.70
Positive
Market Momentum
0.66
Positive
48.61
Neutral
9.64
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PRG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 32.33 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.00, above the 50-day MA of 31.16, and above the 200-day MA of 31.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.66 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.64 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PRG.
PROG Holdings Risk Analysis
PROG Holdings disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. PROG Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
PROG Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $1.35B | 7.94 | 20.48% | 1.72% | 0.45% | -25.85% | |
74 Outperform | $1.24B | 11.50 | 17.33% | 0.82% | 23.13% | 12.80% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
| ― | $42.38M | -0.59 | -175.10% | ― | -27.85% | -163.71% | |
55 Neutral | $2.21B | -90.75 | -2.18% | ― | 9.38% | 43.77% | |
45 Neutral | $211.16M | -2.25 | -3253.61% | 4.88% | -1.86% | -13.02% |
* Industrials Sector Average
PRG
PROG Holdings
33.03
4.61
16.21%
MPU
Mega Matrix
0.56
-0.32
-36.36%
WLFC
Willis Lease Finance
173.06
41.57
31.62%
CTOS
Custom Truck One Source
9.26
4.89
111.90%
ALTG
Alta Equipment Group
5.54
0.61
12.37%
PROG Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesDividendsShareholder Meetings
PROG Holdings Elevates CEO Steve Michaels to Chairman
Positive
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, PROG Holdings’ board elevated President and CEO Steve Michaels to chairman, consolidating leadership while naming former chairman Ray Robinson as lead independent director to preserve board independence. The board also grante...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
PROG Holdings Updates 2026 Outlook After Purchasing Power Acquisition
Neutral
Mar 10, 2026
On March 10, 2026, PROG Holdings updated its full-year 2026 outlook, narrowing revenue guidance for both the group and its recently acquired Purchasing Power unit ahead of an Investor Day in New York. Following the January 2026 acquisition, the co...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.