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AMMO
(NASDAQ:POWW)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▼(-3.38% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/22/26
The score is driven by improving technical momentum and a positive earnings-call tone highlighting operational progress and profitability improvement on an adjusted basis. These are tempered by weak and volatile financial performance (material revenue decline from 2022, ongoing GAAP losses, uneven cash flow) and limited valuation support given the negative P/E and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
High gross margins
Sustained ~87% gross margins indicate the core ammunition business has strong unit economics and pricing power. High gross margins provide a durable cushion against raw‑material swings, support operating leverage as volumes scale, and free capacity to fund investments or buybacks over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Revenue volatility and downtrend
A dramatic, persistent decline from 2022 peak reduces the revenue base that underpins fixed costs and long‑term scale economics. Continued volatility impairs forecasting, weakens bargaining power with channels, and makes sustained margin and cash improvements harder to rely upon absent a durable demand recovery or new recurring revenue sources.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High gross margins
Sustained ~87% gross margins indicate the core ammunition business has strong unit economics and pricing power. High gross margins provide a durable cushion against raw‑material swings, support operating leverage as volumes scale, and free capacity to fund investments or buybacks over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
AMMO (POWW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$279.95M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)609.70K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.19
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees63
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.06
Shares Outstanding116,163,490
10 Day Avg. Volume350,399
30 Day Avg. Volume609,700
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.38
Price to Book (P/B)1.00
Price to Sales (P/S)4.60
P/FCF Ratio-122.13
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.61
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.32
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.14
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.50
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2.75Price Target Upside32.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.02
Revenue Forecast (FY)$50.17M
AMMO Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Outdoor Holding Company specializes in digital commerce, primarily operating an internet-based marketplace. A central component of its operations is the GunBroker e-commerce platform, a bidding website that facilitates the legitimate trade of fire...
How the Company Makes Money
AMMO makes money primarily by selling finished ammunition and related products. Its core revenue stream is product sales of ammunition manufactured by the company and sold into the U.S. commercial market (e.g., sports shooting, hunting, and person...
AMMO Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 22, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed clear operational and financial improvement: sequential revenue growth, double‑digit GMV gains in Q4, strong gross margins, significant adjusted EBITDA expansion (46% YoY) and a materially stronger cash position. Management achieved cost reductions, remediated internal control weaknesses, integrated an FFL transfer platform, and launched AI initiatives, all supporting future margin and scale opportunities. Remaining negatives are largely legacy legal costs (a $4.4M settlement this quarter and residual lawsuits/indemnities), a modest Q4 take‑rate dip driven by mix, and the company still reporting a small GAAP net loss for the year. Overall the positives—improved profitability, cash generation, control remediation, and strategic tech/FFL initiatives—substantially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Q4 net sales were $13.9 million, up 10.1% year‑over‑year (approximately $1.3 million increase versus prior year Q4). This marks the third consecutive quarter of sequential and year‑over‑year revenue growth.
Negative Updates
One‑Time Legal Settlement and Ongoing Legal Exposure
Q4 included a $4.4 million one‑time payment to fully settle the DCP matter. Residual legal matters remain (class action and shareholder derivative suits in Arizona) and ongoing indemnification payments for former officers (SEC‑related) create variable, 'chunky' legal expense.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Q4 net sales were $13.9 million, up 10.1% year‑over‑year (approximately $1.3 million increase versus prior year Q4). This marks the third consecutive quarter of sequential and year‑over‑year revenue growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company provided upbeat, qualitative guidance for FY27 centered on “strong margins, more efficient operations, positive cash generation and continued platform improvements,” noting that a new FFL services revenue stream launching in FY27 will be accretive to sales (but at a lower margin than the core ~87% gross margin); management also reiterated disciplined capital allocation including ongoing share repurchases (over 500k shares for >$1.0M executed in Q4) and continued legal cost management. Key metrics cited as the basis for that outlook include Q4 net sales of $13.9M (+10.1% YoY) with GMV of $229M (+11.8% YoY) and 87.6% gross margin, Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $7.7M (55% of net sales) and sequential quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $3.1M → $4.9M → $6.6M → $7.7M, full‑year net sales of $51.5M (+3.5%), FY GMV $824M (+3.2%), FY adjusted EBITDA $22.3M (up 46% from $15.3M; $0.19/share vs $0.13), modestly improved take rate (FY 6.21% vs 6.19%), materially reduced operating expenses (including $5.4M recurring SG&A cuts), remediation of all material weaknesses, a year‑end cash balance of $68.1M (up from $30.2M), and the expectation that each incremental dollar of revenue will meaningfully flow to profitability.AMMO Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 51.13M | 49.40M | 53.94M | 63.15M | 240.27M |
| Gross Profit | 30.20M | 42.93M | 46.28M | 54.03M | 88.72M |
| EBITDA | 13.58M | -45.26M | 7.18M | 15.05M | 45.96M |
| Net Income | -3.54M | -130.83M | -16.59M | -8.77M | 25.87M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 267.48M | 297.33M | 403.04M | 412.34M | 414.18M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 68.10M | 30.23M | 55.59M | 39.13M | 23.28M |
| Total Debt | 11.17M | 1.56M | 13.10M | 14.86M | 5.14M |
| Total Liabilities | 32.53M | 75.30M | 44.99M | 39.74M | 39.87M |
| Stockholders Equity | 234.96M | 222.03M | 358.05M | 372.60M | 374.30M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.93M | -13.51M | 29.98M | 23.02M | -17.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.49M | -10.11M | 32.64M | 35.56M | 1.77M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 40.60M | -5.48M | -8.02M | -12.54M | -69.68M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.25M | -9.77M | -8.66M | -6.66M | -27.15M |
AMMO Technical Analysis
Positive
2.07
Price Trends
2.11
Positive
2.08
Positive
1.90
Positive
Market Momentum
0.10
Negative
68.68
Neutral
79.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For POWW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.24, below the 50-day MA of 2.11, and above the 200-day MA of 1.90, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for POWW.
AMMO Risk Analysis
AMMO disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AMMO reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AMMO Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
58 Neutral | $279.95M | -43.26 | -35.04% | ― | ― | ― | |
58 Neutral | $613.06M | -53.41 | -4.24% | 1.92% | 3.20% | -139.32% | |
56 Neutral | $687.46M | 37.78 | 5.04% | 5.10% | 10.75% | 35.88% | |
53 Neutral | $134.75M | -26.01 | 13.82% | ― | 5.15% | -124.82% | |
51 Neutral | $84.08M | -16.30 | -6.41% | ― | ― | -11379.59% | |
43 Neutral | $78.97M | -5.05 | -119.17% | ― | -19.76% | -0.17% |
* Industrials Sector Average
POWW
AMMO
2.44
1.23
101.65%
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15.51
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3.94
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-82.84%
PEW
GrabAGun Digital Holdings
3.08
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SPAI
Safe Pro Group, Inc.
3.84
0.27
7.56%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.