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Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI)
NASDAQ:SWBI

Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI) AI Stock Analysis

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Smith & Wesson Brands

(NASDAQ:SWBI)

Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
▲(3.93%Upside)
Smith & Wesson's overall stock score is primarily impacted by financial performance challenges, with significant revenue and profitability declines. Technical analysis also indicates bearish momentum. While product innovation and a strong dividend yield provide some positive aspects, the macroeconomic pressures and overvaluation concerns weigh heavily on the stock's outlook.

Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Smith & Wesson Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSmith & Wesson Brands, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells firearms worldwide. The company offers handguns, including revolvers and pistols; long guns, such as modern sporting rifles, bolt action rifles; handcuffs; suppressors; and other firearm-related products under the Smith & Wesson, M&P, and Gemtech brands. It also provides manufacturing services comprising forging, heat treating, rapid prototyping, tooling, finishing, plating, machining, and custom plastic injection molding to other businesses under the Smith & Wesson and Smith & Wesson Precision Components brand names; and sells parts purchased through third parties. The company sells its products to firearm enthusiasts, collectors, hunters, sportsmen, competitive shooters, individuals desiring home and personal protection, law enforcement, security agencies and officers, and military agencies. It markets its products through independent dealers, retailers, in-store retails, and direct to consumers; print, broadcast, and digital advertising campaigns; social and electronic media; and in-store retail merchandising strategies. Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. was founded in 1852 and is based in Springfield, Massachusetts.
How the Company Makes MoneySmith & Wesson Brands, Inc. generates revenue primarily through the design, manufacture, and sale of firearms. The company's revenue streams are significantly driven by its diverse product offerings, which include handguns, long guns, and other related accessories. Sales are made through a network of distributors and retailers, both domestically and internationally. The company also benefits from contracts with law enforcement and military agencies, which are significant contributors to its income. Additionally, Smith & Wesson has established partnerships and licensing agreements that allow it to expand its brand presence and leverage its reputation in the firearms industry.

Smith & Wesson Brands Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Handguns Total Units Shipped by Channel
Handguns Total Units Shipped by Channel
Chart InsightsSmith & Wesson's handgun shipments show a volatile trend, with recent declines in both sporting goods and professional channels. Despite a market share gain, the earnings call highlights a challenging environment with declining sales and margins, driven by soft consumer demand and economic headwinds. The company's strategy focuses on innovation and maintaining ASPs through inventory management and production adjustments, but macroeconomic pressures and tariff impacts remain significant risks for fiscal 2026.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Smith & Wesson Brands Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 18, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: -20.40%|
Next Earnings Date:Sep 04, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call highlighted the company's strong product innovation and market share leadership, but these were overshadowed by significant declines in sales, gross margins, and net income due to macroeconomic pressures and industry challenges. The company is managing its balance sheet well and anticipates soft demand going forward.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong New Product Sales
New products accounted for 44% of sales in the fourth quarter, indicating successful innovation and market differentiation.
Market Share Leadership
Despite challenges, Smith & Wesson maintained a market share leadership position at the retail counter, driven by strong product performance.
Balance Sheet Strength
The company reported a strong balance sheet, with ongoing efforts to manage inventory and production schedules to align with demand.
Positive Cash Flow
Generated $40.8 million in cash from operations during the quarter, ending with $25.2 million in cash.
Negative Updates
Decline in Net Sales
Net sales for the fourth quarter were $140.8 million, down 11.6% compared to the prior year.
Reduced Gross Margin
Gross margin fell to 28.8%, a decline of 6.7 percentage points from the prior year, due to lower production volume and increased promotions.
Lower Net Income
Net income decreased by $18.7 million compared to the prior year, with earnings per share dropping from $0.59 to $0.19.
Macroeconomic and Industry Challenges
Faced challenges from persistent inflation, high interest rates, and tariff concerns, which impacted the overall firearms market conditions.
Expected Continued Soft Demand
The company anticipates continued soft demand and economic headwinds in fiscal 2026, with first-quarter demand expected to be 10% lower than the previous year.
Company Guidance
During the Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Fiscal 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided guidance reflecting a challenging macroeconomic and industry environment. Key metrics discussed included a decline in fourth quarter net sales by 11.6% to $140.8 million, with new products making up 43.9% of total revenue. Adjusted NICS was down 5.4% in Q4, indicating a decrease in consumer firearm demand, although the company gained market share in handguns. Average selling prices (ASP) were down 4.5% year-over-year. For fiscal 2026, Smith & Wesson anticipates continued economic headwinds, with the first quarter sales expected to be approximately 10% lower than the prior year, alongside lower margins due to increased tariffs on raw materials. The company plans to manage production schedules, including an extended summer shutdown, to align inventory with demand and maintain strong ASPs. They are also focused on debt reduction and maintaining a strong balance sheet, projecting significant cash generation and inventory reduction throughout the year.

Smith & Wesson Brands Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Smith & Wesson Brands has a robust balance sheet with zero debt and strong equity, but faces challenges with declining revenues and profitability. Recent cash flow issues highlight the need for improved cash management despite past positive performances. The financial performance is stable but shows areas needing improvement.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Smith & Wesson Brands has shown fluctuating revenue trends, with a noticeable decline in recent years from its peak in 2021. The gross profit margin for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) is approximately 29.65%, while the net profit margin stands at 6.05%, indicating moderate profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also modest at 7.00% and 11.82%, respectively, reflecting tight operational efficiencies. Overall, the income statement suggests stable but declining performance with room for improvement in operational margins.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet of Smith & Wesson Brands shows a solid equity position with zero total debt in the latest TTM period, resulting in a healthy debt-to-equity ratio of 0. The return on equity (ROE) for TTM is 8.19%, demonstrating reasonable returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 62.92%, highlighting a strong equity base compared to total assets. These metrics indicate a stable financial structure with low leverage and robust shareholder equity.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
The cash flow statement reveals challenges in cash generation, with negative free cash flow of -$10.03 million in the latest TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating issues in converting income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, reflecting cash flow pressures. The company has previously demonstrated positive cash flows, but recent periods suggest a need for better cash management strategies.
BreakdownTTMJun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue493.05M535.83M479.24M864.13M1.06B678.39M
Gross Profit146.19M158.09M154.54M374.56M448.98M234.71M
EBITDA65.86M84.01M81.10M251.65M319.63M81.59M
Net Income29.80M39.61M36.88M194.49M252.05M-61.23M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets578.86M578.00M541.29M497.48M446.39M728.96M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments26.70M60.84M53.56M120.73M113.02M125.40M
Total Debt145.10M78.37M61.75M40.28M38.79M199.04M
Total Liabilities214.79M179.84M156.67M136.96M180.00M341.84M
Stockholders Equity364.07M398.16M384.62M360.51M266.38M387.12M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-16.38M15.79M-73.17M113.56M292.65M80.22M
Operating Cash Flow-4.43M106.74M16.73M137.81M315.33M94.96M
Investing Cash Flow-10.81M-81.49M-89.78M-24.12M-23.40M-13.96M
Financing Cash Flow-5.42M-17.97M5.88M-105.99M-303.92M3.38M

Smith & Wesson Brands Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price8.66
Price Trends
50DMA
9.59
Negative
100DMA
9.76
Negative
200DMA
10.81
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.25
Positive
RSI
35.32
Neutral
STOCH
9.43
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SWBI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.66 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.72, below the 50-day MA of 9.59, and below the 200-day MA of 10.81, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.43 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SWBI.

Smith & Wesson Brands Risk Analysis

Smith & Wesson Brands disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Smith & Wesson Brands reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Smith & Wesson Brands Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
65
Neutral
$10.56B15.495.57%1.96%2.71%-26.29%
RGRGR
64
Neutral
$588.53M19.429.56%1.99%0.65%-20.28%
54
Neutral
$386.38M28.753.48%5.96%-11.73%-64.84%
43
Neutral
$150.69M-17.71%-11.01%-279.70%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SWBI
Smith & Wesson Brands
8.66
-5.05
-36.83%
RGR
Sturm Ruger & Company
35.73
-5.17
-12.64%
POWW
AMMO
1.30
-0.38
-22.62%

Smith & Wesson Brands Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Smith & Wesson VP of Sales Announces Retirement
Neutral
May 2, 2025

Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. announced that its Vice President of Sales, Susan J. Cupero, plans to retire in May 2025. An agreement was made to ensure her continued salary and benefits, including immediate vesting of certain stock units and a lump sum for Medicare coverage, impacting the company’s leadership transition.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 27, 2025