Douglas Dynamics (PLOW)
NYSE:PLOW
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Douglas Dynamics
(NYSE:PLOW)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$45.00
▼(-3.39% Downside)
Action:UpgradedDate:02/25/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (notably improved free cash flow and improving leverage) and a supportive earnings outlook with upbeat 2026 guidance. These positives are tempered by stretched technical conditions (overbought signals) and a valuation that is not especially cheap at ~21.8x earnings, while the dividend provides some support.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Material free cash flow improvement and high FCF conversion provide durable funding for dividends, buybacks, modest capex, deleveraging and small M&A. Strong cash generation improves resilience through seasonal troughs and supports disciplined capital allocation over multiple years.
Negative Factors
Weather dependence
Heavy reliance on snowfall-driven demand creates structural revenue and cash-flow volatility across seasons and years. This cyclicality complicates forecasting, working-capital management and dealer inventories, requiring sustained operational discipline to smooth earnings and protect margins long term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Material free cash flow improvement and high FCF conversion provide durable funding for dividends, buybacks, modest capex, deleveraging and small M&A. Strong cash generation improves resilience through seasonal troughs and supports disciplined capital allocation over multiple years.
Read all positive factors
Douglas Dynamics (PLOW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.08B
Dividend Yield3.52%
Average Volume (3M)236.61K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.1
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth9.99%
EPS Growth-23.93%
CountryUS
Employees1,673
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.62
Shares Outstanding23,084,814
10 Day Avg. Volume150,366
30 Day Avg. Volume236,613
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.07
Price to Book (P/B)2.68
Price to Sales (P/S)1.15
P/FCF Ratio11.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.19
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.95
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.40
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.41
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$52.50Price Target Upside12.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)2.62
Revenue Forecast (FY)$733.13M
Douglas Dynamics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Douglas Dynamics, Inc. operates as a manufacturer and upfitter of commercial work truck attachments and equipment in North America. It operates through two segments, Work Truck Attachments and Work Truck Solutions. The Work Truck Attachments segme...
How the Company Makes Money
Douglas Dynamics primarily makes money by selling equipment and related products for commercial work trucks, with revenue generated mainly from (1) new equipment sales and (2) aftermarket and service-related demand. New equipment revenue comes fro...
Douglas Dynamics Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales across the company’s business lines to show where growth is coming from. For Douglas Dynamics, segment revenue highlights the mix between new equipment, aftermarket parts, and services, exposes seasonal exposure to winter demand, and pinpoints areas where market share gains or product expansion could drive future top-line resilience.
Breaks down sales across the company’s business lines to show where growth is coming from. For Douglas Dynamics, segment revenue highlights the mix between new equipment, aftermarket parts, and services, exposes seasonal exposure to winter demand, and pinpoints areas where market share gains or product expansion could drive future top-line resilience.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyDouglas Dynamics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum across both segments, highlighted by record sales, improved margins, substantial free cash flow growth, a confident guidance range above $700M for 2026, and successful initial M&A integration. These positives are tempered by continued weather dependence (creating short-term volatility), some dealer/commercial hesitancy, higher inventories tied to an acquisition and component stocking, and limited near-term margin runway from prior cost reductions. On balance, the company presented clear progress on strategy and a bullish outlook while acknowledging manageable risks tied to seasonality and mix.Positive Updates
Strong Consolidated Quarterly Growth
Q4 net sales increased ~29% to $184.5M; gross profit grew ~35% to $48.1M; gross margin improved 120 bps to 26.1%. Net income and diluted EPS rose >60% to $12.8M and $0.54, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA increased ~37% to $25.8M with adjusted EBITDA margin up 90 bps to 14%. Adjusted EPS grew ~58% to $0.62.
Negative Updates
Weather Dependence and Volatility
Business, particularly Attachments and parts & accessories, remains highly sensitive to snowfall. Management's outlook and guidance assume above-average Q1 snowfall and average Q4; parts/accessories sales are materially correlated to near-term weather, creating volatility in results and guidance.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Consolidated Quarterly Growth
Q4 net sales increased ~29% to $184.5M; gross profit grew ~35% to $48.1M; gross margin improved 120 bps to 26.1%. Net income and diluted EPS rose >60% to $12.8M and $0.54, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA increased ~37% to $25.8M with adjusted EBITDA margin up 90 bps to 14%. Adjusted EPS grew ~58% to $0.62.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 net sales of $710–760 million, adjusted EBITDA of $100–120 million and adjusted EPS of $2.25–2.85 (effective tax rate ~24–25%), assuming above‑average Q1 snowfall and average Q4; the midpoint implies double‑digit top‑line growth vs. 2025 ($656.1M net sales, $97.9M adjusted EBITDA, $2.24 adj. EPS). Key balance‑sheet and cash metrics cited include year‑end liquidity of $127.8M (cash $8.3M, $119.5M revolver), leverage of 1.8x (target 1.5–3x), 2025 free cash flow of $63.6M (+91%), and inventory of $150M (+9%). Capital allocation highlights: quarterly dividend maintained at $0.295/share, $38M remaining buyback authority, 2025 CapEx and facility investments of $15.1M (within the 2–3% of sales range) with 2026 spending expected to stay in that 2–3% range, and continued pursuit of small‑to‑medium M&A (Venco expected to be EPS and FCF accretive in 2026).Douglas Dynamics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 656.05M | 568.50M | 568.18M | 616.07M | 541.45M |
| Gross Profit | 168.50M | 146.84M | 134.27M | 151.46M | 141.87M |
| EBITDA | 88.98M | 107.04M | 66.57M | 79.55M | 66.74M |
| Net Income | 46.90M | 56.15M | 23.72M | 38.61M | 30.69M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 626.70M | 589.98M | 593.42M | 596.89M | 572.48M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.30M | 5.12M | 24.16M | 20.67M | 36.96M |
| Total Debt | 214.88M | 221.47M | 256.70M | 226.53M | 239.88M |
| Total Liabilities | 345.25M | 325.77M | 361.85M | 359.79M | 357.87M |
| Stockholders Equity | 281.45M | 264.21M | 231.56M | 237.10M | 214.61M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 63.56M | 33.32M | 1.95M | 27.98M | 49.33M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 74.69M | 41.13M | 12.47M | 40.03M | 60.53M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -37.46M | 56.79M | -10.52M | -12.05M | -11.21M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -33.76M | -116.96M | 1.54M | -44.28M | -53.39M |
Douglas Dynamics Technical Analysis
Positive
46.58
Price Trends
41.81
Positive
37.48
Positive
33.93
Positive
Market Momentum
0.36
Negative
65.09
Neutral
67.83
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PLOW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 46.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.94, above the 50-day MA of 41.81, and above the 200-day MA of 33.93, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PLOW.
Douglas Dynamics Risk Analysis
Douglas Dynamics disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Douglas Dynamics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Douglas Dynamics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $1.08B | 16.05 | 17.23% | 3.52% | 9.99% | -23.93% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
53 Neutral | $835.34M | 10.25 | 11.76% | 3.32% | 23.96% | 11.01% | |
53 Neutral | $541.99M | -140.80 | 4.18% | ― | -0.53% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $501.03M | 14.01 | -2.06% | 5.50% | -2.58% | -179.55% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
PLOW
Douglas Dynamics
46.58
25.16
117.44%
MNRO
Monro Muffler
16.69
2.63
18.67%
SMP
Standard Motor Products
37.72
16.19
75.23%
CPS
Cooper-Standard Holdings
30.73
18.58
152.92%
AIIO
Roboai
0.78
-6.64
-89.49%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.