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Douglas Dynamics
(NYSE:PLOW)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$55.00
▲(19.07% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/09/26
The score is held back primarily by the sharp deterioration in TTM cash generation (negative operating and free cash flow), despite improved profitability and healthier leverage trends. Offsetting that risk, the latest earnings call was constructive with raised 2026 guidance and strong segment execution, while technicals are generally supportive on longer-term averages but mixed in the near term. Valuation is a headwind given the high P/E, partially balanced by the dividend.
Positive Factors
Aftermarket Parts & Accessories Strength
Durable aftermarket demand from parts and accessories supports recurring revenue and margin resilience beyond seasonal new-equipment cycles. Record P&A shipments indicate a larger installed base and replacement cadence that can stabilize cashflows and profitability across winters, improving long-term revenue visibility.
Negative Factors
Negative Operating & Free Cash Flow
A sharp deterioration in cash generation materially raises financial risk despite reported earnings improvements. Persistent negative operating and free cash flow can constrain capital allocation, limit bolt-on M&A or buybacks, and force reliance on external financing during off-peak seasons.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Aftermarket Parts & Accessories Strength
Durable aftermarket demand from parts and accessories supports recurring revenue and margin resilience beyond seasonal new-equipment cycles. Record P&A shipments indicate a larger installed base and replacement cadence that can stabilize cashflows and profitability across winters, improving long-term revenue visibility.
Read all positive factors
Douglas Dynamics Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales across the company’s business lines to show where growth is coming from. For Douglas Dynamics, segment revenue highlights the mix between new equipment, aftermarket parts, and services, exposes seasonal exposure to winter demand, and pinpoints areas where market share gains or product expansion could drive future top-line resilience.
Breaks down sales across the company’s business lines to show where growth is coming from. For Douglas Dynamics, segment revenue highlights the mix between new equipment, aftermarket parts, and services, exposes seasonal exposure to winter demand, and pinpoints areas where market share gains or product expansion could drive future top-line resilience.
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The Fly
The FlyDouglas Dynamics (PLOW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.16B
Dividend Yield3.52%
Average Volume (3M)175.32K
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.1
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue Growth15.46%
EPS Growth-17.71%
CountryUS
Employees1,673
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.27
Shares Outstanding23,125,193
10 Day Avg. Volume155,661
30 Day Avg. Volume175,321
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.07
Price to Book (P/B)2.68
Price to Sales (P/S)1.15
P/FCF Ratio11.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap-3.31
Enterprise Value/Revenue-5.66
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-21.21
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-40.00
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$57.00Price Target Upside23.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)2.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)$757.73M
Douglas Dynamics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Douglas Dynamics, Inc. is a North American firm specializing in the production and customization of equipment and accessories for commercial work trucks. The company's operations are divided into two primary segments: Work Truck Attachments and Wo...
How the Company Makes Money
Douglas Dynamics primarily makes money by selling work truck attachments and related parts/accessories, with revenue generated largely through (1) new equipment sales—especially snow and ice control products such as plows and spreaders sold ahead ...
Douglas Dynamics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was predominantly positive: the company reported record top-line and profit metrics, strong segment execution (notably Attachments driven by record P&A shipments and Solutions’ municipal strength), and raised full-year guidance. Strategic initiatives (M&A integration, capacity expansions, data-driven planning and dealer tools) are advancing. Key risks include the weather-driven and potentially one-time nature of much of the Attachments upside, some ongoing commercial softness in parts of Solutions (including Dejana’s final-mile exposure), negative free cash flow this quarter, and higher SG&A. Management emphasized operational readiness and prudent capital allocation but advised modeling toward average snowfall for future periods.Positive Updates
Record Consolidated Revenue and Strong Profitability
Consolidated net sales increased 20% year-over-year to a record $137.8 million. Adjusted EBITDA rose 78% to a record $16.8 million and adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 400 basis points to 12.2%. Record adjusted EPS of $0.36.
Negative Updates
Commercial Softness in Parts of Solutions (Dejana/Final Mile)
Certain commercial segments showed softer demand versus last year. Dejana's final-mile exposure (under 5% of business) remains soft and management reported ongoing softness in some commercial end markets driven by macro uncertainty.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Consolidated Revenue and Strong Profitability
Consolidated net sales increased 20% year-over-year to a record $137.8 million. Adjusted EBITDA rose 78% to a record $16.8 million and adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 400 basis points to 12.2%. Record adjusted EPS of $0.36.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Douglas Dynamics raised its 2026 guidance to net sales of $750–$795 million, adjusted EBITDA of $110–$125 million and adjusted EPS of $2.55–$3.05 (assuming an effective tax rate of ~24–25% and stable macro/supply-chain conditions with average Q4 snowfall), citing strong Q1 results (consolidated net sales $137.8M, gross margin 27.4% up 290bps, SG&A $26.3M, adjusted EBITDA $16.8M up 78% with a 12.2% margin, and adjusted EPS $0.36), Attachments strength (Q1 Attachments net sales $60.9M, +67%, adjusted EBITDA $7.7M, record parts & accessories shipments after snowfall ~20% above the 10‑year average and 40% above last winter), near‑record Solutions performance (Q1 net sales $76.9M, adjusted EBITDA $9.1M, margin 11.9%), early preseason momentum and solid backlog; management noted preseason shipments should be roughly a 50/50 split between Q2 and Q3 (vs 60/40 in 2025), total volume growth of ~15–20% (Solutions mid‑to‑high single digits), CapEx to rise but stay in the typical 2–3% of sales range (Q1 CapEx $3.7M), Q1 operating cash use $1M, free cash flow negative $4.2M, and that they returned about $10.1M to shareholders and repurchased ~70,000 shares—with the company saying the low end of the new guidance would still produce record annual results.Douglas Dynamics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
24
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 678.78M | 656.05M | 568.50M | 568.18M | 616.07M | 541.45M |
| Gross Profit | 181.26M | 168.50M | 146.84M | 134.27M | 151.46M | 141.87M |
| EBITDA | 96.09M | 88.98M | 107.04M | 66.57M | 79.55M | 66.74M |
| Net Income | 53.13M | 46.90M | 56.15M | 23.72M | 38.61M | 30.69M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 630.29M | 626.70M | 589.98M | 593.42M | 596.89M | 572.48M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.19B | 8.30M | 5.12M | 24.16M | 20.67M | 36.96M |
| Total Debt | 234.72M | 219.05M | 221.47M | 256.70M | 226.53M | 239.88M |
| Total Liabilities | 350.86M | 345.25M | 325.77M | 361.85M | 359.79M | 357.87M |
| Stockholders Equity | 279.43M | 281.45M | 264.21M | 231.56M | 237.10M | 214.61M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -4.09B | 63.56M | 33.32M | 1.95M | 27.98M | 49.33M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -917.97M | 74.69M | 41.13M | 12.47M | 40.03M | 60.53M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.12B | -37.46M | 56.79M | -10.52M | -12.05M | -11.21M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.93B | -33.76M | -116.96M | 1.54M | -44.28M | -53.39M |
Douglas Dynamics Technical Analysis
Positive
46.19
Price Trends
46.46
Positive
44.70
Positive
38.54
Positive
Market Momentum
2.03
Negative
56.27
Neutral
56.56
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PLOW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 46.19 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.87, below the 50-day MA of 46.46, and above the 200-day MA of 38.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PLOW.
Douglas Dynamics Risk Analysis
Douglas Dynamics disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Douglas Dynamics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Douglas Dynamics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $1.16B | 22.15 | 19.15% | 3.52% | 15.46% | -17.71% | |
62 Neutral | $844.45M | 18.24 | 6.69% | 3.32% | 18.32% | 45.19% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
50 Neutral | $516.73M | 430.25 | 0.36% | 5.50% | -3.19% | ― | |
47 Neutral | $468.56M | -12.17 | 0.14% | ― | 1.42% | 16.39% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
PLOW
Douglas Dynamics
50.27
19.89
65.46%
MNRO
Monro Muffler
17.21
1.57
10.07%
SMP
Standard Motor Products
37.93
5.56
17.17%
CPS
Cooper-Standard Holdings
26.39
2.33
9.68%
AIIO
Roboai
4.17
-27.83
-86.97%
Douglas Dynamics Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Douglas Dynamics Adopts Officer Exculpation, Confirms Governance Support
Positive
May 1, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Douglas Dynamics amended its Fourth Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation in Delaware to add exculpation provisions that limit personal liability for certain officers, following stockholder approval of the change at ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.