American Axle & Manufacturing (AXL)
NYSE:AXL
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American Axle (AXL) AI Stock Analysis

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AXL

American Axle

(NYSE:AXL)

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Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▲(0.15% Upside)
American Axle's overall stock score is driven by its stable financial performance and positive earnings call outlook. The company's strong technical indicators and reasonable valuation further support the score. However, high leverage and challenges in the metal forming segment pose risks. The absence of a dividend yield is a minor drawback for income investors.
Positive Factors
Strong Market Position
American Axle's strong margin growth and strategic positioning as a premier global driveline supplier indicate a robust market position, enhancing its competitive edge and potential for long-term success.
Regulatory Progress
Securing EU regulatory approval for the Dowlais acquisition strengthens American Axle's strategic expansion, enhancing its global footprint and potential for value creation in the long term.
Positive Financial Guidance
The positive financial guidance for 2025 reflects confidence in operational performance and market conditions, supporting sustained growth and profitability.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage poses financial risk, potentially limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns, which could impact long-term stability.
Declining Free Cash Flow Growth
The decline in free cash flow growth may constrain investment capacity and affect the company's ability to fund strategic initiatives, impacting future growth.
Pending Regulatory Approvals
Pending regulatory approvals in key markets could delay strategic initiatives and integration plans, affecting the company's expansion and operational efficiency.

American Axle (AXL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

American Axle Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAmerican Axle & Manufacturing, Inc. (AAM) is a leading global tier-one automotive supplier specializing in the design, engineering, and manufacturing of driveline and drivetrain systems, as well as related components. The company serves a diverse range of sectors, primarily focusing on light trucks, SUVs, and passenger vehicles. AAM's core products include axles, driveshafts, and chassis components, which are integral to vehicle performance and efficiency. With a strong emphasis on innovation and sustainability, AAM is committed to advancing automotive technology and supporting its customers in the evolving market.
How the Company Makes MoneyAmerican Axle generates revenue primarily through the sale of its automotive components to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and the aftermarket. The company's key revenue streams include the manufacturing and supply of driveline systems, such as axles and driveshafts, which are essential for vehicle propulsion and handling. Additionally, AAM benefits from long-term contracts with major automotive manufacturers, providing a stable income source. Partnerships and collaborations with leading automotive brands enhance its market presence and drive sales. Furthermore, AAM invests in research and development to create advanced technologies that meet the growing demand for electric and hybrid vehicles, positioning itself for future growth in a rapidly changing industry.

American Axle Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 07, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance and positive future guidance, supported by successful financing and regulatory progress. However, challenges remain in the metal forming segment and pending regulatory approvals in key markets, along with executive transition challenges.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
AAM's third quarter 2025 sales were $1.51 billion with an adjusted EBITDA of $195 million, representing a robust 130 basis point improvement versus last year on flat sales. The driveline business unit achieved adjusted EBITDA margins of 14.9%, the highest third quarter margin since 2020.
Positive Outlook for 2025
AAM updated its 2025 guidance, targeting sales in the range of $5.8 billion to $5.9 billion, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $710 million to $745 million, and adjusted free cash flow of approximately $180 million to $210 million.
Successful Financing and Regulatory Progress
Completed the permanent financing for the Dowlais acquisition by securing $850 million of senior secured notes, $1.25 billion of senior unsecured notes, and $835 million of term loans. The European Commission and Brazilian regulatory approvals have been secured.
Negative Updates
Challenges in Metal Forming Segment
The metal forming side still requires additional work to reach its full margin potential and has faced ongoing challenges with labor availability and technical skill sets.
Pending Regulatory Approvals
Regulatory approvals in Mexico and China are still pending for the Dowlais acquisition, with China potentially delaying clearance until late 2025 or early 2026.
Executive Transition Challenges
Roberto Fioroni, CFO at Dowlais, will not join AAM post-acquisition due to personal decisions, necessitating adjustments in the management strategy.
Company Guidance
During the American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM) Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company updated its guidance for the fiscal year 2025 based on its strong performance during the first three quarters. AAM now targets sales between $5.8 billion and $5.9 billion, with adjusted EBITDA projected to range from $710 million to $745 million. Additionally, the company anticipates an adjusted free cash flow between $180 million and $210 million. These projections assume a North American production volume of approximately 15.1 million units. The company reported its third-quarter sales at $1.51 billion, with an adjusted earnings per share of $0.16. Operating cash flow was $143.3 million, while adjusted free cash flow stood at approximately $98.1 million. AAM achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $195 million, representing 12.9% of sales, marking a 130 basis point improvement compared to the previous year on flat sales.

American Axle Financial Statement Overview

Summary
American Axle demonstrates a stable financial performance with some areas of concern. The income statement reflects stable margins despite a slight decline in revenue growth. The balance sheet shows high leverage, which could be risky, but the company is generating returns on equity. Cash flow management is strong, although free cash flow growth has declined. Overall, the company maintains operational efficiency and profitability, but high leverage and declining free cash flow growth are potential risks.
Income Statement
65
Positive
American Axle's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a slight decline in revenue growth at -1.62%, which is concerning. However, the company maintains a stable gross profit margin of around 12%, and the net profit margin has improved slightly to 0.70%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively stable, indicating operational efficiency. Overall, while profitability is modest, the company shows resilience in maintaining its margins.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.06 in the TTM, indicating significant leverage, which poses a risk. However, the return on equity has improved to 6.71%, showing better utilization of equity. The equity ratio stands at approximately 12.76%, suggesting a moderate level of equity financing. While the company is heavily leveraged, it is managing to generate returns on its equity.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth by -26.30% in the TTM, which is a concern. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.36, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.37, suggesting that the company is generating sufficient free cash flow relative to its net income. Despite the decline in free cash flow growth, cash flow management remains relatively strong.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.83B6.12B6.08B5.80B5.16B4.71B
Gross Profit717.90M741.40M624.30M704.90M722.70M582.70M
EBITDA709.80M718.50M664.40M732.90M740.70M123.90M
Net Income41.90M35.00M-33.60M64.30M5.90M-561.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.34B5.06B5.36B5.47B5.64B5.92B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments714.10M552.90M519.90M511.50M530.20M557.00M
Total Debt2.72B2.74B2.89B3.13B3.23B3.57B
Total Liabilities4.62B4.50B4.75B4.84B5.18B5.54B
Stockholders Equity718.40M562.80M604.90M627.30M457.80M370.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow91.30M207.40M201.50M277.50M357.20M239.00M
Operating Cash Flow299.00M455.40M396.10M448.90M538.40M454.70M
Investing Cash Flow-179.20M-254.80M-184.50M-243.00M-161.10M-218.40M
Financing Cash Flow-80.20M-156.20M-205.50M-217.20M-401.40M-214.50M

American Axle Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price6.49
Price Trends
50DMA
6.07
Positive
100DMA
5.51
Positive
200DMA
4.95
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.12
Positive
RSI
56.55
Neutral
STOCH
56.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.22, above the 50-day MA of 6.07, and above the 200-day MA of 4.95, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXL.

American Axle Risk Analysis

American Axle disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American Axle reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

American Axle Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$9.67B72.462.24%1.09%0.08%-83.69%
71
Outperform
$2.93B9.6323.16%0.25%-4.03%-39.51%
71
Outperform
$3.41B11.131.21%-1.09%56.16%
66
Neutral
$770.34M19.286.01%-6.02%42.35%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
54
Neutral
$2.50B48.42-4.82%1.84%-18.23%
53
Neutral
$1.71B-14.41%-1.04%-1510.41%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AXL
American Axle
6.49
-0.02
-0.31%
BWA
BorgWarner
46.01
11.69
34.06%
DAN
Dana Incorporated
21.75
13.40
160.48%
VC
Visteon
107.01
13.39
14.30%
ADNT
Adient
21.10
-0.12
-0.57%
GTX
Garrett Motion
17.13
9.36
120.46%

American Axle Corporate Events

American Axle Reports Strong Margin Growth in Q3 2025
Nov 8, 2025

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AAM) is a leading global Tier 1 automotive and mobility supplier that designs, engineers, and manufactures driveline and metal forming technologies for electric, hybrid, and internal combustion vehicles, with headquarters in Detroit and operations in 15 countries.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
American Axle Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results
Positive
Nov 7, 2025

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting a strong year-over-year margin growth. The company achieved sales of $1.51 billion and a net income of $9.2 million, with an adjusted EBITDA of $194.7 million. AAM is progressing towards its combination with Dowlais, aiming to enhance its position as a premier global driveline and metal forming supplier. The company also updated its financial outlook for 2025, targeting sales between $5.8 and $5.9 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $710 and $745 million, reflecting its strategic focus on growth and value creation.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXL) stock is a Hold with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Axle stock, see the AXL Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
American Axle Gains EU Approval for Dowlais Acquisition
Positive
Oct 27, 2025

On October 27, 2025, American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. announced that the European Commission has unconditionally cleared its recommended offer to acquire Dowlais Group plc, satisfying the EU Antitrust Condition. The combination has been cleared in seven of the ten required jurisdictions, with clearances in Brazil, Mexico, and China expected by early 2026. The merger is anticipated to close in the first quarter of 2026, with some changes in the senior executive management team of the combined group.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXL) stock is a Hold with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Axle stock, see the AXL Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
American Axle Issues Notes for Dowlais Merger
Positive
Oct 3, 2025

On October 3, 2025, American Axle & Manufacturing, Inc. issued $850 million in senior secured notes and $1.25 billion in senior unsecured notes to finance its business combination with Dowlais Group plc. The proceeds will be used for various financial obligations, including repaying Dowlais’s credit facilities and redeeming existing notes. The issuance of these notes is a strategic move to strengthen the company’s financial position and support its growth through the pending merger, impacting its operations and market positioning significantly.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXL) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Axle stock, see the AXL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
American Axle Upsizes $2.1B Note Offering for Merger
Neutral
Sep 19, 2025

On September 19, 2025, American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. announced the pricing and upsizing of its private offering of $850 million in senior secured notes due 2032 and $1.25 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2033. The proceeds from this offering will be used for a pending business combination with Dowlais Group plc, repayment of existing credit facilities, and other corporate purposes, potentially impacting the company’s financial strategy and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXL) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Axle stock, see the AXL Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
American Axle Announces Major Note Offering for Dowlais Merger
Neutral
Sep 15, 2025

On September 15, 2025, American Axle & Manufacturing, Inc. announced its intention to offer $843 million in senior secured notes due 2032 and $600 million in senior unsecured notes due 2033, subject to market conditions. The proceeds from this offering, along with existing credit and cash reserves, will be used to facilitate a combination with Dowlais, repay Dowlais’ existing credit facilities, and fund a change of control offer for certain Dowlais notes. This strategic financial maneuver aims to strengthen AAM’s market position and streamline its operations by integrating Dowlais, potentially impacting stakeholders through enhanced operational synergies and financial restructuring.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXL) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Axle stock, see the AXL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
American Axle Adjusts Executive Compensation to Retain Talent
Positive
Aug 12, 2025

On August 6, 2025, American Axle‘s Compensation Committee approved salary and incentive adjustments for key executives, effective August 16, 2025, to acknowledge their contributions. These changes involve significant increases in base salaries and long-term incentive opportunities for executives like CEO David C. Dauch and others, reflecting the company’s commitment to retaining leadership talent and potentially impacting its operational strategy and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXL) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Axle stock, see the AXL Stock Forecast page.

American Axle’s Strategic Moves and Financial Challenges
Aug 12, 2025

American Axle & Manufacturing’s recent earnings call painted a picture of strategic strength tempered by certain financial challenges. The company emphasized its robust strategic maneuvers, such as a major acquisition and notable product wins, which have positively impacted EBITDA margins and maintained strong liquidity. However, the call also acknowledged hurdles including a decline in sales, increased tax expenses, and tariff exposures.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
American Axle Appoints David B. Walker to Board
Positive
Aug 11, 2025

On August 8, 2025, American Axle & Manufacturing announced the appointment of David B. Walker to its Board of Directors. Walker, a retired Vice Chairman of Investment Banking at J.P. Morgan, brings 35 years of experience in advising global companies, enhancing AAM’s strategic and financial capabilities. This appointment is expected to strengthen AAM’s board with Walker’s expertise in financing, strategy, and investment opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXL) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Axle stock, see the AXL Stock Forecast page.

American Axle Reports Strong Q2 2025 Earnings
Aug 9, 2025

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AAM) is a leading global Tier 1 supplier in the automotive and mobility sector, specializing in the design, engineering, and manufacturing of driveline and metal forming technologies for electric, hybrid, and internal combustion vehicles. Headquartered in Detroit, AAM operates over 75 facilities across 15 countries.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
American Axle Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results
Positive
Aug 8, 2025

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting a net income of $39.3 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $202.2 million. The company experienced year-over-year growth in adjusted EBITDA margin due to productivity and cost controls, despite a decrease in sales compared to the previous year. AAM also announced a significant milestone in its upcoming combination with Dowlais, which is expected to enhance its position as a premier global driveline and metal forming auto supplier. The company’s updated financial outlook for 2025 targets increased sales and adjusted EBITDA, reflecting confidence in its strategic initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXL) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Axle stock, see the AXL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 08, 2025