American Axle (AXL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $709.61M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.00M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.47
• Revenue Growth: -6.73%
• EPS Growth: 4900.00%
• Country: US
• Employees: 19,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 83
• Industry: Auto - Parts
• EPS (TTM): 0.21
• Shares Outstanding: 118,664,154
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,321,592
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,999,572
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.70
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.45
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.75
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.68
• 1Y Price Target: $6.65
• Price Target Upside: 11.76% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.00 ▲(0.84% Upside)

American Axle's overall stock score reflects a stable financial performance with strong earnings call highlights, including strategic initiatives and margin improvements. However, high leverage and declining free cash flow growth pose risks. The lack of technical analysis data and moderate valuation further impact the score.

Positive Factors

Merger and Acquisition

The announced merger with Dowlais Group is expected to result in Dowlais shareholders owning approximately 49% of the combined entity, potentially enhancing market position.

Product Offering

AAM manufactures a broad range of driveline components for global automotive OEMs, including electric and hybrid driveline products and systems.

Negative Factors

Conflict of Interest

There may be a conflict of interest in the report as the firm seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.

American Axle Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, and manufactures driveline and metal forming technologies that supports electric, hybrid, and internal combustion vehicles in the United States, Mexico, South America, China, other Asian countries, and Europe. It operates through Driveline and Metal Forming segments. The Driveline segment offers front and rear axles, driveshafts, differential assemblies, clutch modules, balance shaft systems, disconnecting driveline technology, and electric and hybrid driveline products and systems for light trucks, sport utility vehicles, crossover vehicles, passenger cars, and commercial vehicles. The Metal Forming segment provides axle and transmission shafts, ring and pinion gears, differential gears and assemblies, and connecting rods and variable valve timing products for original equipment manufacturers and tier 1 automotive suppliers. American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. has technology development agreement with Suzhou Inovance Automotive Ltd. and REE Automotive Ltd. American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Detroit, Michigan.

How the Company Makes Money

American Axle generates revenue primarily through the sale of its automotive components to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and the aftermarket. The company's key revenue streams include the manufacturing and supply of driveline systems, such as axles and driveshafts, which are essential for vehicle propulsion and handling. Additionally, AAM benefits from long-term contracts with major automotive manufacturers, providing a stable income source. Partnerships and collaborations with leading automotive brands enhance its market presence and drive sales. Furthermore, AAM invests in research and development to create advanced technologies that meet the growing demand for electric and hybrid vehicles, positioning itself for future growth in a rapidly changing industry.

American Axle Financial Statement Overview

Summary

American Axle demonstrates stable financial performance with some concerns. The income statement reflects stable margins despite a slight decline in revenue growth. The balance sheet shows high leverage, which could be risky, but the company is generating returns on equity. Cash flow management is strong, although free cash flow growth has declined. Overall, the company maintains operational efficiency and profitability, but high leverage and declining free cash flow growth are potential risks.

Income Statement

American Axle's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a slight decline in revenue growth at -1.62%, which is concerning. However, the company maintains a stable gross profit margin of around 12%, and the net profit margin has improved slightly to 0.70%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively stable, indicating operational efficiency. Overall, while profitability is modest, the company shows resilience in maintaining its margins.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.06 in the TTM, indicating significant leverage, which poses a risk. However, the return on equity has improved to 6.71%, showing better utilization of equity. The equity ratio stands at approximately 12.76%, suggesting a moderate level of equity financing. While the company is heavily leveraged, it is managing to generate returns on its equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth by -26.30% in the TTM, which is a concern. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.36, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.37, suggesting that the company is generating sufficient free cash flow relative to its net income. Despite the decline in free cash flow growth, cash flow management remains relatively strong.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.83B	6.12B	6.08B	5.80B	5.16B	4.71B
Gross Profit	700.20M	741.40M	624.30M	704.90M	722.70M	582.70M
EBITDA	713.90M	721.00M	664.40M	732.90M	725.90M	109.70M
Net Income	41.10M	35.00M	-33.60M	64.30M	5.90M	-561.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.27B	5.06B	5.36B	5.47B	5.64B	5.92B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	586.50M	552.90M	519.90M	511.50M	530.20M	557.00M
Total Debt	2.73B	2.74B	2.98B	3.13B	3.23B	3.57B
Total Liabilities	4.60B	4.50B	4.75B	4.84B	5.18B	5.54B
Stockholders Equity	673.00M	562.80M	604.90M	627.30M	457.80M	370.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	161.70M	204.30M	201.50M	277.50M	357.20M	239.00M
Operating Cash Flow	442.60M	455.40M	396.10M	448.90M	538.40M	454.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-258.50M	-254.80M	-184.50M	-243.00M	-161.10M	-218.40M
Financing Cash Flow	-127.70M	-156.20M	-205.50M	-217.20M	-401.40M	-214.50M

American Axle Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5.95
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.78, above the 50-day MA of 5.03, and above the 200-day MA of 4.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 66.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXL.

American Axle Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ALSN	74 Outperform	$7.46B	10.13	47.08%	1.19%	2.70%	15.17%
BWA	67 Neutral	$9.49B	46.82	3.66%	1.14%	-2.12%	-69.42%
GNTX	66 Neutral	$6.17B	15.68	16.38%	1.71%	2.43%	-1.25%
ADNT	66 Neutral	$1.99B	805.10	-11.85%	―	-3.00%	-447.89%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$17.97B	12.87	-5.29%	2.97%	1.26%	-14.45%
AXL	61 Neutral	$709.61M	17.29	6.38%	―	-6.73%	4900.00%
DAN	61 Neutral	$2.71B	―	-5.00%	1.94%	-14.46%	-2170.83%

American Axle Corporate Events

American Axle Adjusts Executive Compensation to Retain Talent

On August 6, 2025, American Axle‘s Compensation Committee approved salary and incentive adjustments for key executives, effective August 16, 2025, to acknowledge their contributions. These changes involve significant increases in base salaries and long-term incentive opportunities for executives like CEO David C. Dauch and others, reflecting the company’s commitment to retaining leadership talent and potentially impacting its operational strategy and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXL) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Axle stock, see the AXL Stock Forecast page.

American Axle Appoints David B. Walker to Board

On August 8, 2025, American Axle & Manufacturing announced the appointment of David B. Walker to its Board of Directors. Walker, a retired Vice Chairman of Investment Banking at J.P. Morgan, brings 35 years of experience in advising global companies, enhancing AAM’s strategic and financial capabilities. This appointment is expected to strengthen AAM’s board with Walker’s expertise in financing, strategy, and investment opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXL) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Axle stock, see the AXL Stock Forecast page.

American Axle Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting a net income of $39.3 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $202.2 million. The company experienced year-over-year growth in adjusted EBITDA margin due to productivity and cost controls, despite a decrease in sales compared to the previous year. AAM also announced a significant milestone in its upcoming combination with Dowlais, which is expected to enhance its position as a premier global driveline and metal forming auto supplier. The company’s updated financial outlook for 2025 targets increased sales and adjusted EBITDA, reflecting confidence in its strategic initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXL) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Axle stock, see the AXL Stock Forecast page.

American Axle Announces Merger with Dowlais Group

On July 22, 2025, American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. announced that Dowlais Group plc shareholders approved the proposed combination with AAM, following AAM stockholder approval on July 15, 2025. This strategic merger aims to create a leading global driveline and metal forming supplier with a powertrain-agnostic product portfolio, enhancing AAM’s market position and creating value for stakeholders. The transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approvals.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXL) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Axle stock, see the AXL Stock Forecast page.

American Axle Stockholders Approve Dowlais Acquisition

On July 15, 2025, American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. held a special meeting where its stockholders approved proposals related to the acquisition of Dowlais Group plc, a move expected to expand AAM’s geographic presence and market reach in the automotive industry. The acquisition, which is anticipated to close in the fourth quarter of 2025, aims to create a leading global driveline and metal forming supplier with projected annual revenues of approximately $12 billion, pending Dowlais shareholder approval and regulatory conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXL) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Axle stock, see the AXL Stock Forecast page.

American Axle Faces Legal Challenges on Acquisition

On January 29, 2025, American Axle announced a recommended offer to acquire Dowlais Group plc, with a special meeting scheduled for July 15, 2025, to approve related proposals. However, the company faces legal challenges from shareholders alleging disclosure deficiencies in its proxy statements, which it denies, but has provided supplemental information to mitigate litigation risks.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXL) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Axle stock, see the AXL Stock Forecast page.

American Axle Proposes Share Increase and Acquisition

On June 2, 2025, American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. announced a proposed amendment to increase its authorized shares and a recommended offer to acquire Dowlais Group plc. The acquisition involves adjustments to the consideration payable to Dowlais shareholders, including an increase in cash and share consideration following the cancellation of certain shares held by the Melrose Employee Share Ownership Trust. The special meeting for stockholders to approve these changes is scheduled for July 15, 2025. This strategic move is expected to strengthen AAM’s market position and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXL) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Axle stock, see the AXL Stock Forecast page.