Monro Muffler Brake (MNRO)
NASDAQ:MNRO
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Monro Muffler
(NASDAQ:MNRO)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▼(-7.85% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/13/26
The score is held back primarily by deteriorated profitability and very weak price momentum (well below key moving averages with bearish MACD). These negatives are partially offset by resilient cash flow, manageable leverage, a supportive valuation profile (P/E ~14 and ~7.2% yield), and earnings-call evidence of operational improvements despite near-term sales and cost headwinds.
Positive Factors
Consistent cash generation and FCF
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for capex, dividends and restructuring costs. This cash generation reduces reliance on external financing, supports the dividend policy and gives management runway to execute the turnaround over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Deteriorated profitability and margin compression
A sharp slide in profitability and compressed EBITDA margins weaken free cash flow durability and returns. If margins don't stabilize, the firm may face structural earnings shortfalls that constrain reinvestment, shareholder payouts and debt servicing over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent cash generation and FCF
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for capex, dividends and restructuring costs. This cash generation reduces reliance on external financing, supports the dividend policy and gives management runway to execute the turnaround over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Monro Muffler (MNRO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$502.53M
Dividend Yield5.5%
Average Volume (3M)812.88K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.0
Beta (1Y)0.96
Revenue Growth-2.58%
EPS Growth-179.55%
CountryUS
Employees7,660
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.16
Shares Outstanding30,019,660
10 Day Avg. Volume697,341
30 Day Avg. Volume812,885
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.78
Price to Book (P/B)0.77
Price to Sales (P/S)0.40
P/FCF Ratio4.52
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.96
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.84
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.41
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.21
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$40.00Price Target Upside137.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.19B
Monro Muffler Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Monro, Inc. provides automotive undercar repair, and tire sales and services in the United States. It offers replacement tires and tire related services; routine maintenance services on passenger cars, light trucks, and vans; products and services...
How the Company Makes Money
Monro primarily makes money by selling automotive services and products directly to customers through its company-operated retail service locations. Its major revenue streams include (1) service revenue from labor-based vehicle repair and maintena...
Monro Muffler Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Monro Muffler Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 14, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated measurable operational progress — positive comps, gross margin expansion, inventory reductions, real estate monetization, expanded marketing and CRM rollout, and improved GAAP profitability and cash generation. Offsetting these positives are near‑term impacts from strategic store closures (driving a 4% sales decline), wage inflation increasing technician labor costs, increased marketing and consultant investments, and declines in certain adjusted financial metrics (adjusted operating income and adjusted EPS). Management framed the challenges as deliberate, strategic investments to drive long‑term improvement and reiterated expectations for full‑year comparable store sales growth and gross margin consistency with the prior year.Positive Updates
Comparable Store Sales Growth
Comparable store sales for continuing locations increased 1.2% in the quarter (Oct -2%, Nov +4%, Dec +1%) marking the fourth consecutive quarter of positive comps and the first positive two‑year stack in over two years.
Negative Updates
Total Sales Decline
Total sales decreased 4% to $293.4M in the quarter, primarily driven by the strategic closure of 145 underperforming stores which is expected to reduce sales by ~ $45.0M in fiscal 2026.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Comparable Store Sales Growth
Comparable store sales for continuing locations increased 1.2% in the quarter (Oct -2%, Nov +4%, Dec +1%) marking the fourth consecutive quarter of positive comps and the first positive two‑year stack in over two years.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that Monro expects to deliver year‑over‑year comparable store sales for fiscal 2026 and that the store optimization plan will reduce total sales by approximately $45,000,000 in FY2026; they expect full‑year gross margin to be consistent with fiscal 2025 (implying Q4 gross margin above prior year to achieve that), will partially offset baseline cost inflation and tariff‑related cost increases with benefits from store closures and operational improvements, and will reinvest SG&A savings into marketing to support top‑line growth. They reiterated capital and liquidity plans: capital expenditures of $25–$35 million, continued dividend funding, and an expectation to generate sufficient cash flow to fund priorities (cash from operations was $48.0 million in the first nine months); balance sheet metrics include net bank debt of ~$40.0 million, credit availability of ~ $425.0 million, and cash & equivalents of ~ $5.0 million. Additional operating progress cited that supports guidance included $22.8 million of real‑estate disposition proceeds YTD (including $17.3 million in Q3), 57 leases exited and 25 locations sold YTD, inventory down over $7.0 million in Q3 to more than $28.0 million (a ~16% reduction since March), and ongoing rollout of marketing, CRM and call‑center support across the store base.Monro Muffler Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.18B | 1.20B | 1.28B | 1.33B | 1.36B | 1.13B |
| Gross Profit | 409.67M | 417.64M | 452.10M | 456.18M | 481.84M | 395.19M |
| EBITDA | 64.80M | 82.38M | 144.09M | 156.79M | 183.09M | 149.73M |
| Net Income | -12.52M | -5.18M | 37.57M | 39.05M | 61.57M | 34.32M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.57B | 1.64B | 1.69B | 1.78B | 1.87B | 1.81B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.91M | 20.76M | 6.56M | 4.88M | 7.95M | 29.96M |
| Total Debt | 485.76M | 529.36M | 611.01M | 668.89M | 803.36M | 802.76M |
| Total Liabilities | 965.03M | 1.02B | 1.04B | 1.08B | 1.09B | 1.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 604.94M | 620.76M | 656.77M | 694.92M | 782.91M | 749.68M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 49.63M | 105.55M | 99.72M | 176.03M | 145.93M | 133.18M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 77.14M | 131.91M | 125.20M | 215.02M | 173.76M | 184.91M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 5.62M | -1.23M | -1.96M | 26.55M | -109.80M | -66.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -88.02M | -116.48M | -121.56M | -244.63M | -85.97M | -434.16M |
Monro Muffler Technical Analysis
Neutral
16.82
Price Trends
18.45
Negative
19.06
Negative
17.58
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.40
Negative
50.38
Neutral
74.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNRO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 16.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.89, below the 50-day MA of 18.45, and below the 200-day MA of 17.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MNRO.
Monro Muffler Risk Analysis
Monro Muffler disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Monro Muffler reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Monro Muffler Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $7.74B | 12.73 | 9.42% | 4.00% | -3.71% | -0.27% | |
65 Neutral | $3.31B | 18.56 | 14.34% | ― | 7.94% | 34.84% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $379.76M | 25.68 | -5.54% | ― | -3.20% | -257.73% | |
53 Neutral | $835.79M | 10.25 | 11.76% | 3.32% | 23.96% | 11.01% | |
51 Neutral | $502.53M | 14.01 | -2.06% | 5.50% | -2.58% | -179.55% | |
51 Neutral | $218.43M | 33.64 | 0.75% | ― | 6.72% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MNRO
Monro Muffler
16.82
3.64
27.61%
DORM
Dorman Products
110.12
-1.29
-1.16%
LKQ
LKQ
30.31
-9.82
-24.48%
MPAA
Motorcar Parts Of America
11.49
2.53
28.24%
SMP
Standard Motor Products
37.88
15.83
71.81%
HLLY
Holley
3.16
1.02
47.66%
Monro Muffler Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Monro Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend for Shareholders
Positive
Feb 13, 2026
On February 13, 2026, Monro, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.28 per share for the fourth quarter of its 2026 fiscal year, ending March 28, 2026. The dividend will be paid on March 10, 2026, to sh...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.