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Monro Muffler
(NASDAQ:MNRO)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▼(-31.51% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
MNRO’s score is held back primarily by weak profitability trends and a bearish technical setup (price well below all major moving averages). Cash flow and a manageable/improving leverage profile provide some support, and the earnings call included constructive FY27 comp guidance tied to operational initiatives, but near-term demand/margin pressures and an extremely high P/E (despite the high dividend yield) keep the overall outlook subdued.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Monro’s TTM operating and free cash flow (~$72M) and strong FCF conversion provide durable internal funding for capex, dividends and debt service. Reliable cash generation improves financial flexibility to execute operational initiatives and withstand near-term earnings volatility.
Negative Factors
Profitability weakness
Income statement margins have compressed materially versus prior years (EBIT and EBITDA thin, net near breakeven), leaving little cushion for cost inflation or traffic weakness. Low returns reduce capital reinvestment efficiency and increase the risk that shortfalls force cuts to dividends or strategic spending.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Monro’s TTM operating and free cash flow (~$72M) and strong FCF conversion provide durable internal funding for capex, dividends and debt service. Reliable cash generation improves financial flexibility to execute operational initiatives and withstand near-term earnings volatility.
Read all positive factors
Monro Muffler Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Number of Stores
Reports the store footprint and, when available, its composition (for example by format or ownership). Changes in this mix—openings, acquisitions or closures—indicate how the company is executing expansion strategy and the likely impact on regional coverage, same-store sales trends, and operating efficiency.
Reports the store footprint and, when available, its composition (for example by format or ownership). Changes in this mix—openings, acquisitions or closures—indicate how the company is executing expansion strategy and the likely impact on regional coverage, same-store sales trends, and operating efficiency.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMonro Muffler (MNRO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$367.67M
Dividend Yield9.61%
Average Volume (3M)990.74K
Price to Earnings (P/E)48.6
Beta (1Y)1.16
Revenue Growth-4.98%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees6,440
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.24
Shares Outstanding31,264,060
10 Day Avg. Volume651,870
30 Day Avg. Volume990,742
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-5.00
Price to Book (P/B)0.78
Price to Sales (P/S)0.40
P/FCF Ratio11.97
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.50Price Target Upside-1.73% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.15B
Monro Muffler Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Monro, Inc. engages in the operation of retail tire and automotive repair stores in the United States. It offers replacement tires and tire related services; automotive undercar repair services; and routine maintenance services primarily to passen...
How the Company Makes Money
Monro makes money primarily by selling automotive services and products through its company-owned retail service locations. Revenue is generated from (1) service labor and related shop charges for maintenance and repair work (e.g., oil changes, br...
Monro Muffler Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q1-2027)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: management reported tangible operational progress (marketing/CRM upgrades, ConfiDrive adoption, district toolkit rollout), flat tire unit volumes, and improvements in operating income and net loss versus last year. However, top-line pressures persist (sales down 4.6%, comps down 1.7%), gross margin contracted ~50 bps, adjusted operating income and adjusted EPS materially lag prior-year levels, and cash from operations was negative for the quarter. Management maintained marketing investment and provided a constructive full‑year outlook, but macro/geopolitical headwinds and consumer deferral of big-ticket spend create ongoing near‑term risk. Overall, positives from operational initiatives are offset by continued revenue and margin headwinds, yielding a balanced view.Positive Updates
Operational Improvement Initiatives Gaining Traction
Company highlighted measurable progress across three performance initiatives (customer acquisition/activation, store customer experience & selling effectiveness, merchandising productivity). District manager toolkit rollout expanded from ~100 to ~340 locations, driving store profit improvement opportunities.
Negative Updates
Revenue and Comparable Store Sales Decline
Sales decreased 4.6% to $287.1M in Q1. Comparable store sales declined 1.7% year‑over‑year (April +1%, May -2%, June -3%). Management noted preliminary July comps down ~1%.
Read all updates
Q1-2027 Updates
Positive
Negative
Operational Improvement Initiatives Gaining Traction
Company highlighted measurable progress across three performance initiatives (customer acquisition/activation, store customer experience & selling effectiveness, merchandising productivity). District manager toolkit rollout expanded from ~100 to ~340 locations, driving store profit improvement opportunities.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Monro guided to year‑over‑year comparable store sales growth in fiscal 2027 driven by its performance‑improvement initiatives, with full‑year gross margin expected to be consistent with fiscal 2026, higher SG&A anticipated as the company increases marketing to support top‑line growth, and an intention to fund historical capital allocation priorities (including the dividend) while targeting $25–35 million of capital expenditures for FY27. For context, management noted Q1 sales of $287.1 million (down 4.6%), comparable store sales down 1.7% (April +1%, May −2%, June −3%; preliminary July ~ −1%), tire units held flat, gross margin down 50 basis points, operating income $3.7 million (1.3% of sales) and adjusted operating income $2.2 million (0.8% of sales), net bank debt ~$99 million, cash ~$10 million, availability under the credit facility ~ $261 million, AP‑to‑inventory 185% (vs. 202% at FY26 end), Q1 cash used in operations $30 million, Q1 capex $8 million, $9 million of financing‑lease principal paid, $9 million of dividends paid in Q1, $3 million of proceeds from closed‑store dispositions to date and 37 closed stores remaining to potentially monetize.Monro Muffler Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.14B | 1.16B | 1.20B | 1.28B | 1.33B | 1.36B |
| Gross Profit | 398.75M | 405.26M | 417.64M | 452.10M | 456.18M | 481.84M |
| EBITDA | 75.10M | 82.01M | 82.38M | 144.09M | 157.38M | 183.09M |
| Net Income | 8.07M | 2.17M | -5.18M | 37.57M | 39.05M | 61.57M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.56B | 1.57B | 1.64B | 1.69B | 1.78B | 1.87B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.53M | 14.63M | 20.76M | 6.56M | 4.88M | 7.95M |
| Total Debt | 527.84M | 485.90M | 529.36M | 611.01M | 668.89M | 803.36M |
| Total Liabilities | 974.00M | 976.50M | 1.02B | 1.04B | 1.08B | 1.09B |
| Stockholders Equity | 582.50M | 591.47M | 620.76M | 656.77M | 694.92M | 782.91M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 41.86M | 38.78M | 105.55M | 99.72M | 176.03M | 145.93M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 41.99M | 70.44M | 131.91M | 125.20M | 215.02M | 173.76M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.38M | -1.20M | -1.23M | -1.96M | 26.55M | -109.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -36.89M | -75.37M | -116.48M | -121.56M | -244.63M | -85.97M |
Monro Muffler Technical Analysis
Negative
16.79
Price Trends
15.57
Negative
15.89
Negative
17.35
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.21
Positive
28.36
Positive
5.16
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNRO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.82, above the 50-day MA of 15.57, and below the 200-day MA of 17.35, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.36 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.16 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MNRO.
Monro Muffler Risk Analysis
Monro Muffler disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Monro Muffler reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Monro Muffler Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $885.35M | 17.38 | 7.36% | 3.31% | 11.32% | 27.67% | |
66 Neutral | $3.95B | 18.36 | 14.76% | ― | 3.30% | -1.80% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $378.44M | 36.37 | 2.30% | ― | 3.26% | ― | |
53 Neutral | $6.22B | 13.72 | 7.09% | 4.65% | -2.55% | -33.32% | |
51 Neutral | $235.15M | -56.87 | -1.57% | ― | -0.82% | -353.36% | |
48 Neutral | $367.67M | 48.58 | 1.36% | 6.67% | -4.98% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MNRO
Monro Muffler
11.48
-3.90
-25.37%
DORM
Dorman Products
133.63
-22.63
-14.48%
LKQ
LKQ
24.71
-5.72
-18.81%
MPAA
Motorcar Parts Of America
12.14
-2.44
-16.74%
SMP
Standard Motor Products
39.27
0.36
0.93%
HLLY
Holley
3.17
-0.47
-12.91%
Monro Muffler Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Monro Releases 2026 ESG Report Highlighting Responsible Service
Positive
Jun 16, 2026
On June 16, 2026, Monro, Inc., a leading U.S. automotive repair and tire services provider, published its sixth annual environmental, social and governance report covering fiscal year 2026, which ended March 28, 2026. The report, titled “Ser...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Monro Reports Weaker Q4 Results, Reviews Strategic Alternatives
Negative
May 27, 2026
On May 27, 2026, Monro reported fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 results showing a 7.2% quarterly sales decline to $273.8 million and a 3.2% full-year sales decline to $1.157 billion, largely due to the closure of 145 underperforming stores and soft...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.