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Monro Muffler Brake (MNRO)
NASDAQ:MNRO

Monro Muffler (MNRO) AI Stock Analysis

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Monro Muffler

(NASDAQ:MNRO)

Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▼(-4.08%Downside)
Monro's overall stock score is primarily impacted by financial performance concerns, with declining revenues and net losses posing significant risks. Technical analysis and valuation further suggest caution. Positive strategic initiatives and a strong cash position provide some optimism, but profitability and leverage issues need urgent attention.
Positive Factors
Profitability Improvement
The FQ4 update is seen as a step in the right direction with an improvement plan in place that should drive enhanced profitability over time.
Sales Momentum
Comps showed improvement with a positive trend, particularly in February and March with continued momentum in April and May.
Valuation and Acquisition Potential
The company's depressed valuation may increase the possibility of a takeout.
Negative Factors
Margin Pressure
MNRO’s FQ4 gross margin contracted due to higher material and technician labor costs, indicating ongoing margin pressure.
Stock Price Decline
MNRO's shares have decreased 9% since the announcement of the boards' appointment of Peter Fitzsimmons and tariff announcements.
Turnaround Challenges
Despite a positive update, there is reluctance to chase the stock as turnarounds are rarely linear and significant challenges remain.

Monro Muffler (MNRO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Monro Muffler Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMonro, Inc. provides automotive undercar repair, and tire sales and services in the United States. It offers replacement tires and tire related services; routine maintenance services on passenger cars, light trucks, and vans; products and services for brakes; mufflers and exhaust systems; and steering, drive train, suspension, and wheel alignment. The company also provides automotive undercar repair services, including tire replacement sales, and tire related service. The company operates its stores under the brand names of Monro Auto Service and Tire Centers, Tire Choice Auto Service Centers, Mr. Tire Auto Service Centers, Car-X Tire & Auto, Tire Warehouse Tires for Less, Ken Towery's Tire & Auto Care, Mountain View Tire & Auto Service, Tire Barn Warehouse, and Free Service Tire & Auto Centers. As of March 26, 2022, it operated 1,304 company-operated stores, 76 Car-X franchised locations, seven wholesale locations, and three retread facilities in 32 states. The company was formerly known as Monro Muffler Brake, Inc. and changed its name to Monro, Inc. in August 2017. Monro, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Rochester, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyMonro Muffler generates revenue primarily through the sale of automotive repair and maintenance services and the sale of tires and related automotive products. The company's revenue streams are largely derived from its network of retail service locations, where it performs various automotive services, including brake repairs, alignments, and exhaust work. Additionally, tire sales represent a significant portion of their income, as Monro offers a wide selection of tire brands and models. The company benefits from strategic partnerships with tire manufacturers and suppliers, allowing them to offer competitive pricing and a diverse product range. By combining service offerings with retail product sales, Monro Muffler effectively capitalizes on the recurring need for automotive maintenance and repair, driving its revenue growth.

Monro Muffler Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 28, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: 28.87%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Monro's earnings call highlighted positive steps towards improving customer acquisition and maintaining a strong financial position. However, challenges such as significant store closures and decreased gross margin contributed to a net loss, indicating areas needing improvement. While there are promising strategies in place for fiscal 2026, current financial and operational difficulties present a balanced outlook.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Positive Comparable Store Sales Growth
Monro reported a 2.8% increase in comparable store sales for the fourth quarter, with sales momentum continuing into fiscal 2026, showing a 7% increase in the first eight weeks of the fiscal year.
Successful Customer Acquisition Strategy
Initial tests for reallocating marketing dollars towards higher-value customers have shown encouraging results, indicating a promising strategy for customer acquisition and retention.
Strong Cash Flow and Financial Position
Monro generated $132 million in cash from operations in fiscal 2025, maintaining a strong financial position with net bank debt of $40 million and cash equivalents of $21 million.
Negative Updates
Significant Store Closures
Monro plans to close 145 underperforming stores, which contributed approximately 5% of total sales in fiscal 2025, to improve profitability.
Decline in Gross Margin
Gross margin decreased by 250 basis points due to higher material costs, wage inflation, and self-funded promotions, impacting profitability.
Net Loss Reported
Monro reported a net loss of $21.3 million for the fourth quarter, compared to a net income of $3.7 million in the same period last year.
Company Guidance
During the earnings call for Monro Inc., significant guidance was provided for fiscal 2026, despite not offering formal guidance due to tariff uncertainties. The company anticipates year-over-year comparable store sales growth, driven by a strategic improvement plan and potential tariff-related price increases. Monro plans to close 145 underperforming stores, which accounted for approximately 5% of fiscal 2025 sales, to enhance profitability. The CEO, Peter Fitzsimmons, outlined four key areas of focus: closing unprofitable stores, improving customer experience, driving profitable customer acquisition, and increasing merchandising productivity. In fiscal 2025, Monro generated $132 million in cash from operations and maintained a strong financial position with $21 million in cash and a $509 million credit facility availability. While gross margin decreased by 250 basis points due to higher material costs and wage inflation, the company expects margins to remain pressured but aims to improve adjusted diluted earnings per share through operational enhancements and strategic initiatives.

Monro Muffler Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Monro Muffler is experiencing financial challenges, particularly in profitability and leverage. The income statement shows declining revenues and a net loss, while the balance sheet indicates high debt levels. Although cash flow from operations is strong, overall financial health is weakened by profitability issues and leverage concerns.
Income Statement
60
Neutral
The income statement reveals a troubling trend with declining revenue over the past few years, culminating in a revenue decrease of 6.39% from 2024 to 2025. The company reported a net loss of $5.18 million in 2025, down from a profit of $37.57 million in 2024, indicating significant profitability challenges. Gross profit margins have remained relatively stable, but both EBIT and EBITDA margins have seen declines, suggesting operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet shows high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 0.85 in 2025, indicating potential financial risk. The equity ratio decreased slightly, highlighting increased reliance on debt financing. Return on equity is negative due to the net loss, reflecting poor returns on shareholders' investments. Overall, the balance sheet suggests financial instability and potential risk due to high debt levels.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows positive operating cash flow, but free cash flow growth is negative due to reduced profitability. The company maintains a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio, indicating efficient cash generation despite losses. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has been impacted by the net loss, signaling room for improvement in cash flow management.
BreakdownMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.20B1.28B1.33B1.36B1.13B
Gross Profit417.64M452.10M456.18M481.84M395.19M
EBITDA82.38M144.09M156.79M101.92M72.43M
Net Income-5.18M37.57M39.05M61.57M34.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.64B1.69B1.78B1.87B1.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments20.76M6.56M4.88M7.95M29.96M
Total Debt529.36M611.01M591.39M803.36M734.05M
Total Liabilities1.02B1.04B1.08B1.09B1.06B
Stockholders Equity620.76M656.77M694.92M782.91M749.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow105.55M99.72M176.03M145.93M133.18M
Operating Cash Flow131.91M125.20M215.02M173.76M184.91M
Investing Cash Flow-1.23M-1.96M26.55M-109.80M-66.26M
Financing Cash Flow-116.48M-121.56M-244.63M-85.97M-434.16M

Monro Muffler Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price16.16
Price Trends
50DMA
14.42
Positive
100DMA
15.21
Positive
200DMA
19.97
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.35
Negative
RSI
54.86
Neutral
STOCH
70.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNRO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.16, above the 50-day MA of 14.42, and below the 200-day MA of 19.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MNRO.

Monro Muffler Risk Analysis

Monro Muffler disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Monro Muffler reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Monro Muffler Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
SMSMP
80
Outperform
$733.95M12.909.00%3.71%13.53%-4.76%
79
Outperform
$713.69M11.4026.52%3.81%1.14%127.04%
78
Outperform
$270.93M13.489.91%5.54%398.82%
AXAXL
65
Neutral
$517.37M25.343.40%-4.25%
65
Neutral
$242.36M-7.17%5.53%60.54%
64
Neutral
kr10.68B16.174.75%8.73%2.00%4.90%
57
Neutral
$477.14M21.62-0.81%7.03%-6.38%-118.57%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MNRO
Monro Muffler
16.16
-5.43
-25.15%
AXL
American Axle
4.46
-2.57
-36.56%
PLOW
Douglas Dynamics
30.77
9.58
45.21%
MPAA
Motorcar Parts Of America
11.93
5.57
87.58%
SMP
Standard Motor Products
33.54
5.88
21.26%
STRT
Strattec Security
64.73
40.47
166.82%

Monro Muffler Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Monro Muffler Releases Fifth Annual ESG Report
Positive
Jun 16, 2025

On June 16, 2025, Monro, Inc. announced the release of its fifth annual ESG report for fiscal year 2025, highlighting its commitment to operational excellence and responsible business practices. The report details advancements in digital guest experiences, teammate development, and environmental progress, including the rollout of the ConfiDrive digital courtesy performance review, investments in training and retention, and strides toward achieving 100% LED lighting by 2028. These initiatives aim to drive growth, strengthen relationships, and deliver long-term value to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNRO) stock is a Buy with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monro Muffler stock, see the MNRO Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Monro Muffler Amends Consulting Agreement with AlixPartners
Neutral
Jun 5, 2025

On May 30, 2025, Monro, Inc. amended its consulting agreement with AlixPartners, LLP, engaging them for the initial phase of implementation services with a fee of $5.85 million through July 2025. The services include store closure plans, improving customer experience, and increasing merchandising productivity, with the company’s CEO, Peter Fitzsimmons, also serving as a partner at AlixPartners.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNRO) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monro Muffler stock, see the MNRO Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Monro Muffler Reports Decrease in Sales and Income
Negative
May 28, 2025

Monro, Inc. announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025, reporting a decrease in sales and net income compared to the previous year. The company plans to close 145 underperforming stores in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 and has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.28 per share for the first quarter of fiscal 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNRO) stock is a Buy with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monro Muffler stock, see the MNRO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 01, 2025