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Monro Muffler Brake (MNRO)
NASDAQ:MNRO

Monro Muffler (MNRO) AI Stock Analysis

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Monro Muffler

(NASDAQ:MNRO)

55Neutral
Monro Muffler's overall stock score reflects a challenging financial and operational environment, with high leverage and pressure on profitability. Despite these challenges, there are positive aspects such as strong cash flow, a high dividend yield, and strategic leadership changes that could improve future performance. Technical indicators suggest caution due to current downward momentum, but the company's initiatives and leadership changes provide potential for positive long-term outcomes.
Positive Factors
Comparable store sales growth
Sequential improvement in the company's same-store sales is beginning to be observed.
Dividend yield
The company's current dividend yield is approximately 7.4%.
Negative Factors
Electric vehicle adoption
If the electric vehicle continues to increase in popularity, MNRO’s service-related revenue could be adversely impacted due to the difference in services required for electric vehicles.
Impact of automotive technology
Advances in automotive technology are resulting in cars that need to be serviced less, which could negatively impact MNRO’s revenue as these cars become more widespread.

Monro Muffler (MNRO) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Monro Muffler Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMonro, Inc. is a leading provider of automotive undercar repair and tire services in the United States. The company operates under various brand names, including Monro Auto Service and Tire Centers, Mr. Tire, and Tire Choice Auto Service Centers, among others. Monro offers a comprehensive range of services including tire replacement, alignment, brakes, steering, suspension, and other maintenance services. Its extensive network of service centers primarily focuses on providing high-quality, convenient, and affordable automotive services to individual consumers and fleet operators.
How the Company Makes MoneyMonro, Inc. makes money through a combination of service and product sales at its automotive service centers. The company's revenue model is primarily based on providing maintenance and repair services, which include tire installation, brake services, wheel alignments, and general automotive repair. Additionally, Monro generates revenue from the sale of automotive parts and tires. The company benefits from strategic partnerships with tire manufacturers and suppliers, which enable it to offer a wide range of branded tire products. Monro also capitalizes on its extensive store network and customer loyalty programs to drive repeat business and enhance its revenue streams.

Monro Muffler Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Monro Muffler's financial statements present a mixed picture. The company has strong cash flow generation and a stable equity position, but faces challenges with high leverage and inconsistent revenue growth. Profit margins are under pressure, and operational efficiencies need improvement.
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Monro Muffler's TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) income statement shows mixed results. The gross profit margin is healthy, indicating efficient cost management, but the net profit margin is relatively low, suggesting challenges in translating revenue into profit. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a notable decline in recent periods. EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate, reflecting potential operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
The balance sheet reveals a solid equity ratio, indicating a stable financial structure. However, the debt-to-equity ratio is high, highlighting potential leverage risks. Return on equity has decreased over the years, suggesting weakened profitability. The company's equity position remains strong, providing a buffer against financial volatility.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. Free cash flow growth has been positive but volatile, reflecting fluctuations in capital expenditures and operational results. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, supporting financial stability.
Breakdown
Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021Mar 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.28B1.33B1.36B1.13B1.26B
Gross Profit
452.10M456.18M481.84M395.19M476.66M
EBIT
71.42M79.75M20.75M-4.88M37.50M
EBITDA
144.09M156.79M101.92M72.43M166.69M
Net Income Common Stockholders
37.57M39.05M61.57M34.32M58.02M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
6.56M4.88M7.95M29.96M345.48M
Total Assets
1.69B1.78B1.87B1.81B2.05B
Total Debt
611.01M591.39M803.36M734.05M1.04B
Net Debt
604.45M586.50M795.41M704.09M690.25M
Total Liabilities
1.04B1.08B1.09B1.06B1.32B
Stockholders Equity
656.77M694.92M782.91M749.68M734.44M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
99.72M176.03M145.93M133.18M65.41M
Operating Cash Flow
125.20M215.02M173.76M184.91M121.33M
Investing Cash Flow
-1.96M26.55M-109.80M-66.26M-158.81M
Financing Cash Flow
-121.56M-244.63M-85.97M-434.16M376.74M

Monro Muffler Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price12.22
Price Trends
50DMA
15.27
Negative
100DMA
18.32
Negative
200DMA
22.45
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.72
Positive
RSI
26.18
Positive
STOCH
4.66
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNRO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.93, below the 50-day MA of 15.27, and below the 200-day MA of 22.45, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.72 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.18 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.66 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MNRO.

Monro Muffler Risk Analysis

Monro Muffler disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Monro Muffler reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Monro Muffler Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$589.01M9.0426.52%4.33%1.14%127.04%
75
Outperform
$146.86M8.799.91%5.54%398.82%
SMSMP
73
Outperform
$619.86M10.869.00%4.10%13.53%-4.76%
AXAXL
65
Neutral
$491.09M23.633.40%-4.25%
63
Neutral
$177.82M-6.40%4.26%64.64%
61
Neutral
$6.69B11.693.01%3.94%2.60%-21.51%
55
Neutral
$399.82M23.313.02%8.78%-5.25%-42.25%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MNRO
Monro Muffler
12.22
-13.62
-52.71%
AXL
American Axle
4.28
-3.39
-44.20%
PLOW
Douglas Dynamics
27.25
3.01
12.42%
MPAA
Motorcar Parts Of America
9.84
4.83
96.41%
SMP
Standard Motor Products
28.75
-2.44
-7.82%
STRT
Strattec Security
39.92
15.88
66.06%

Monro Muffler Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: -43.63%|
Next Earnings Date:May 15, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture, with notable improvements in comparable store sales and service category growth, supported by the success of digital initiatives. However, these were offset by declines in overall sales, operating income, and gross margin, compounded by January's weather-related challenges.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Sequential Improvement in Comparable Store Sales
Year-over-year comparable store sales percentage change improved by 500 basis points sequentially from the second quarter of fiscal 2025, with positive growth in December.
Growth in Tire and Service Categories
Tire units were up low-single-digits in the third quarter, driven by mid-single-digit growth in December. Service categories like batteries, alignment, and front-end shocks saw year-over-year growth.
Strong Cash Flow and Financial Position
Generated $103 million in cash from operations in the first nine months of fiscal 2025, with an AP to inventory ratio improvement to 179% and total liquidity of $521 million.
Digital Courtesy Inspection Success
The ConfiDrive Digital Courtesy Inspection Process drove improvement in service category sales, particularly in batteries and alignments.
Negative Updates
Decline in Sales and Operating Income
Sales decreased by 3.7% year-over-year, with comparable store sales down 1.9%. Operating income declined to $10 million, or 3.3% of sales, from $21.4 million, or 6.7% of sales, in the prior year period.
Gross Margin Pressure
Gross margin decreased by 120 basis points due to higher material costs, an increased level of self-funded promotions, and trade down to Tier-3 tires.
Reduced Net Income and EPS
Net income was $4.6 million, down from $12.2 million in the prior year. Diluted earnings per share decreased from $0.38 to $0.15.
January Sales Challenges
Preliminary fiscal January comp store sales were down 1%, driven by weakness in tire category sales affected by extreme weather.
Company Guidance
During the earnings call for Monro, Inc.'s third quarter of fiscal 2025, the company shared several key metrics and guidance for future performance. Comparable store sales showed a sequential improvement, with a 500 basis point increase from the second quarter, returning to growth in December with a 1% increase. Despite a year-over-year sales decline of 3.7%, driven by a 1.9% decrease in comparable store sales, the company achieved low single-digit growth in tire units during December. Gross margin decreased by 120 basis points due to a mix shift in tire sales and increased promotions, while operating expenses rose to 31% of sales from 28.7% in the prior year. The company reported net income of $4.6 million, down from $12.2 million, with diluted earnings per share at $0.15. Looking ahead, Monro aims to leverage initiatives like the ConfiDrive Digital Courtesy Inspection Process to improve service category sales and expects to generate at least $120 million in operating cash flow for the fiscal year. Despite near-term margin pressures, the company is focused on driving sales and customer growth, targeting a return to pre-COVID gross margin levels with double-digit operating margins in the long term.

Monro Muffler Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Monro Muffler Appoints New CEO to Drive Growth
Positive
Mar 31, 2025

On March 28, 2025, Monro, Inc. appointed Peter Fitzsimmons as the new President and CEO, replacing Michael T. Broderick. Fitzsimmons, a seasoned executive from AlixPartners, is tasked with enhancing Monro’s operations and financial performance. The company has engaged AlixPartners to assess its operations and develop a plan to improve profitability and shareholder returns. This leadership change is part of Monro’s strategic efforts to drive growth and solidify its position as a premier automotive service provider.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Monro Muffler Appoints New Senior VP of Operations
Neutral
Feb 10, 2025

On February 5, 2025, Monro, Inc. appointed Nick Hawryschuk as Senior Vice President of Operations, effective immediately. Previously Vice President of Finance and Operations, Hawryschuk will now oversee the company’s retail and commercial operations. His promotion reflects Monro’s strategic focus on operational improvements and expanding capabilities, as he brings extensive experience in finance and operations from his tenure at Monro and previous leadership roles at Xylem Inc. and Carestream Health, Inc.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.