Monro Muffler (MNRO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $675.74M
• Dividend Yield: 5.5%
• Average Volume (3M): 784.47K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.88
• Revenue Growth: -2.58%
• EPS Growth: -179.55%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,660
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Parts
• EPS (TTM): 0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 30,019,660
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 736,410
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 784,466
• PEG Ratio: 0.78
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.40
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.52
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.70
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.80
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.71
• 1Y Price Target: $30.00
• Price Target Upside: 33.27% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.55
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.17B

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $24.00 ▲(6.62% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/14/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (declining sales, compressed margins, and recent losses), partially offset by supportive technical trend, a solid dividend yield, and an earnings-call narrative showing operational progress and adequate liquidity despite near-term sales and cost headwinds.

Positive Factors

Extensive retail network & brand position

A large, national store footprint creates durable competitive advantages: local customer convenience, repeat service demand, and scale for parts procurement and marketing. This entrenched distribution and brand recognition supports steady service revenue and cross‑sell of tires over multi quarters.

Consistent cash generation and financial flexibility

Despite recent losses, Monro produces positive operating and free cash flow and has ample revolver capacity. Sustainable cash generation plus a large credit facility provides funding optionality for dividends, capex, and restructuring, reducing refinancing risk over the next several quarters.

Active portfolio optimization and real‑estate monetization

Deliberate store closures and asset sales shrink unprofitable capacity and generate one‑time cash, improving long‑run cost structure. Reallocating proceeds to marketing, CRM and higher‑return locations can raise unit economics and sustain margins beyond the near‑term transition.

Negative Factors

Multi‑year revenue decline and profit deterioration

Persistent top‑line erosion and sharp margin compression reduce operating leverage and resilience. A sustained decline in revenue and margins undermines internal investment capacity and increases reliance on asset sales or external liquidity to fund dividends and strategic initiatives over the medium term.

Planned store closures create a material sales headwind

Closing underperforming locations improves long‑term profitability but immediately shrinks the revenue base and scale economies. The $45M headwind can pressure fixed cost absorption and same‑store metrics, complicating near‑term margin recovery and performance comparisons for several quarters.

Technician wage inflation pressures margins

Automotive service is labor‑intensive; persistent wage inflation raises unit labor costs that are hard to fully pass through in a competitive retail market. Ongoing technician cost pressure can compress gross margins and require sustained productivity improvements to offset higher wage expense.

Monro Muffler Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Monro, Inc. provides automotive undercar repair, and tire sales and services in the United States. It offers replacement tires and tire related services; routine maintenance services on passenger cars, light trucks, and vans; products and services for brakes; mufflers and exhaust systems; and steering, drive train, suspension, and wheel alignment. The company also provides automotive undercar repair services, including tire replacement sales, and tire related service. The company operates its stores under the brand names of Monro Auto Service and Tire Centers, Tire Choice Auto Service Centers, Mr. Tire Auto Service Centers, Car-X Tire & Auto, Tire Warehouse Tires for Less, Ken Towery's Tire & Auto Care, Mountain View Tire & Auto Service, Tire Barn Warehouse, and Free Service Tire & Auto Centers. As of March 26, 2022, it operated 1,304 company-operated stores, 76 Car-X franchised locations, seven wholesale locations, and three retread facilities in 32 states. The company was formerly known as Monro Muffler Brake, Inc. and changed its name to Monro, Inc. in August 2017. Monro, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Rochester, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Monro Muffler generates revenue primarily through its automotive repair services and tire sales. Key revenue streams include the sale of tires, which is a significant portion of its business, alongside services such as exhaust system repairs, brake replacements, and routine maintenance services. The company places a strong emphasis on customer retention and repeat business, leveraging its extensive store network to attract local customers. Additionally, Monro benefits from partnerships with major tire manufacturers, allowing it to offer a wide range of tire brands at competitive prices. Promotional campaigns and service packages also contribute to driving sales and enhancing customer loyalty, ultimately boosting the company's earnings.

Monro Muffler Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are mixed. The income statement is the main drag due to multi-year revenue softness, sharp margin compression, and a shift to losses, while the balance sheet leverage appears manageable and operating/free cash flow remains positive despite weaker debt coverage than prior periods.

Income Statement

Profitability has deteriorated meaningfully. Revenue has been declining for several years (including down ~1% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), and earnings swung from positive in 2022–2024 to a net loss in 2025 annual and a larger loss in TTM. Margins have compressed sharply: EBITDA margin fell from low-double-digits in 2023–2024 to ~5% in TTM, and operating profitability is now pressured, reducing overall earnings quality and resilience.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable but not light. Debt sits below equity (debt-to-equity ~0.83 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), improved versus prior years closer to ~0.93–1.03), and equity remains solid relative to total assets. The key weakness is returns: shareholder returns have turned negative in the most recent periods as losses emerged, which can become a balance-sheet risk if profitability doesn’t recover.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains a relative bright spot. Despite net losses in 2025 annual and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), the company is still producing positive operating cash flow and free cash flow, with TTM free cash flow higher than the prior annual period. That said, cash flow as a share of debt is modest in the latest period versus stronger coverage in earlier years, suggesting less cushion if operating conditions remain pressured.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.18B	1.20B	1.28B	1.33B	1.36B	1.13B
Gross Profit	409.67M	417.64M	452.10M	456.18M	481.84M	395.19M
EBITDA	64.80M	82.38M	144.09M	156.79M	183.09M	149.73M
Net Income	-12.52M	-5.18M	37.57M	39.05M	61.57M	34.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.57B	1.64B	1.69B	1.78B	1.87B	1.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.91M	20.76M	6.56M	4.88M	7.95M	29.96M
Total Debt	485.76M	529.36M	611.01M	668.89M	803.36M	802.76M
Total Liabilities	965.03M	1.02B	1.04B	1.08B	1.09B	1.06B
Stockholders Equity	604.94M	620.76M	656.77M	694.92M	782.91M	749.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	49.63M	105.55M	99.72M	176.03M	145.93M	133.18M
Operating Cash Flow	77.14M	131.91M	125.20M	215.02M	173.76M	184.91M
Investing Cash Flow	5.62M	-1.23M	-1.96M	26.55M	-109.80M	-66.26M
Financing Cash Flow	-88.02M	-116.48M	-121.56M	-244.63M	-85.97M	-434.16M

Monro Muffler Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 22.51
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNRO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.51 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.98, above the 50-day MA of 20.62, and above the 200-day MA of 17.01, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.73 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MNRO.

Monro Muffler Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SMP	74 Outperform	$972.14M	14.38	10.49%	3.32%	23.96%	11.01%
DORM	73 Outperform	$3.86B	14.25	18.19%	―	7.94%	34.84%
LKQ	68 Neutral	$8.55B	14.24	9.78%	4.00%	-3.71%	-0.27%
HLLY	64 Neutral	$510.96M	-20.36	-5.54%	―	-3.20%	-257.73%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
MNRO	58 Neutral	$675.74M	-45.58	-2.00%	5.50%	-2.58%	-179.55%
MPAA	51 Neutral	$204.60M	115.81	0.75%	―	6.72%	―

Monro Muffler Corporate Events

Monro Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend for Shareholders

On February 13, 2026, Monro, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.28 per share for the fourth quarter of its 2026 fiscal year, ending March 28, 2026. The dividend will be paid on March 10, 2026, to shareholders of record as of February 24, 2026, and applies to all outstanding common shares, including those tied to Class C Convertible Preferred Stock.

The dividend declaration underscores Monro’s continued commitment to returning capital to shareholders, signaling confidence in its cash generation and financial stability following approximately $1.2 billion in fiscal 2025 sales. The move may reassure investors about the company’s ongoing ability to fund shareholder distributions while maintaining its operations and growth strategy in the competitive automotive service and tire market.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNRO) stock is a Hold with a $21.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monro Muffler stock, see the MNRO Stock Forecast page.

Monro Muffler Appoints Peter Fitzsimmons as CEO

On December 2, 2025, Monro, Inc. formalized an employment agreement with Peter Fitzsimmons, appointing him as the full-time President and CEO, and adding him to the Board of Directors. This move is part of Monro’s strategy to enhance operations and drive profitability, with Fitzsimmons having previously contributed to the company’s performance improvement plan. The agreement includes a comprehensive compensation package and aims to secure Fitzsimmons’s leadership until at least December 31, 2027, as the company continues to focus on growth and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNRO) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monro Muffler stock, see the MNRO Stock Forecast page.

Monro Muffler Declares Quarterly Dividend for Q3

On November 18, 2025, Monro, Inc.’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.28 per share for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending December 27, 2025. The dividend will be paid on December 16, 2025, to shareholders of record as of December 2, 2025, including those holding Class C Convertible Preferred Stock.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNRO) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monro Muffler stock, see the MNRO Stock Forecast page.

Monro Muffler Extends Consulting Agreement with AlixPartners

On November 10, 2025, Monro, Inc. extended its consulting agreement with AlixPartners, LLP to December 27, 2025, as part of its ongoing operational improvement plan. The extension involves a fee of $2.2 million for services such as embedding capabilities and supporting revenue acceleration, with the company’s CEO, Peter Fitzsimmons, also serving as a partner at AlixPartners.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNRO) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monro Muffler stock, see the MNRO Stock Forecast page.