Monro Muffler (MNRO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $591.99M
• Dividend Yield: 5.5%
• Average Volume (3M): 681.91K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.96
• Revenue Growth: -2.58%
• EPS Growth: -179.55%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,660
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Parts
• EPS (TTM): 0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 30,019,660
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 532,173
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 681,911
• PEG Ratio: 0.78
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.40
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.52
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.83
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.92
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.65
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.75
• 1Y Price Target: $20.00
• Price Target Upside: 11.98% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $20.50 ▲(14.78% Upside)

MNRO scores moderately due to weakened profitability and margin compression (primary headwind), partially offset by resilient cash generation and manageable leverage. The latest earnings call was cautiously positive on execution and guidance, while technicals and the high dividend yield provide additional, but secondary, support.

Positive Factors

Large retail network and market presence

A wide store footprint gives durable access to local customer demand, repeat service revenue and fleet accounts. Scale supports inventory purchasing, multi‑channel marketing rollout and service cross‑sell, creating a structural advantage in a fragmented auto‑service market.

Consistent operating cash generation and liquidity

Positive operating cash flow and large credit availability provide durable financial flexibility to fund capex, dividends and strategic investments even amid earnings volatility. This cash generation cushions execution risk and supports the turnaround plan without immediate reliance on equity markets.

Inventory reduction and real‑estate monetization improving efficiency

Lower inventory reduces working capital needs and risk of obsolescence, improving cash conversion and gross margin potential. Combined with realized proceeds from store sales and lease exits, these structural actions strengthen liquidity and enable reinvestment in higher‑return locations.

Negative Factors

Deteriorating profitability and margin compression

A sustained decline in revenue and sharp margin compression reduce earnings quality and the company's ability to self‑fund growth or dividends. If low margins persist, it will impair returns on capital, limit reinvestment capacity and elevate risk to the balance sheet over the medium term.

Planned store closures reduce scale and near‑term revenue

Strategic downsizing improves long‑term returns but trims the revenue base and fixed‑cost absorption in the near term. The $45M sales headwind necessitates faster comp recovery and proves execution is required to recoup lost volume and restore scale economics.

Wage inflation and elevated reinvestment/one‑time costs

Rising technician wages and significant reinvestment/consulting charges structurally pressure store‑level margins and adjusted earnings. Persistent labor cost inflation and ongoing transformation spend could constrain margin recovery and slow the pace at which operational improvements translate into sustainable profitability.

Monro Muffler Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Monro, Inc. provides automotive undercar repair, and tire sales and services in the United States. It offers replacement tires and tire related services; routine maintenance services on passenger cars, light trucks, and vans; products and services for brakes; mufflers and exhaust systems; and steering, drive train, suspension, and wheel alignment. The company also provides automotive undercar repair services, including tire replacement sales, and tire related service. The company operates its stores under the brand names of Monro Auto Service and Tire Centers, Tire Choice Auto Service Centers, Mr. Tire Auto Service Centers, Car-X Tire & Auto, Tire Warehouse Tires for Less, Ken Towery's Tire & Auto Care, Mountain View Tire & Auto Service, Tire Barn Warehouse, and Free Service Tire & Auto Centers. As of March 26, 2022, it operated 1,304 company-operated stores, 76 Car-X franchised locations, seven wholesale locations, and three retread facilities in 32 states. The company was formerly known as Monro Muffler Brake, Inc. and changed its name to Monro, Inc. in August 2017. Monro, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Rochester, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Monro Muffler generates revenue primarily through its automotive repair services and tire sales. Key revenue streams include the sale of tires, which is a significant portion of its business, alongside services such as exhaust system repairs, brake replacements, and routine maintenance services. The company places a strong emphasis on customer retention and repeat business, leveraging its extensive store network to attract local customers. Additionally, Monro benefits from partnerships with major tire manufacturers, allowing it to offer a wide range of tire brands at competitive prices. Promotional campaigns and service packages also contribute to driving sales and enhancing customer loyalty, ultimately boosting the company's earnings.

Monro Muffler Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are mixed. The income statement is the main drag (declining revenue, sharp margin compression, and a swing to losses in the most recent periods), partially offset by still-positive operating/free cash flow and a balance sheet with manageable (though not light) leverage.

Income Statement

Profitability has deteriorated meaningfully. Revenue has been declining for several years (including down ~1% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), and earnings swung from positive in 2022–2024 to a net loss in 2025 annual and a larger loss in TTM. Margins have compressed sharply: EBITDA margin fell from low-double-digits in 2023–2024 to ~5% in TTM, and operating profitability is now pressured, reducing overall earnings quality and resilience.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable but not light. Debt sits below equity (debt-to-equity ~0.83 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), improved versus prior years closer to ~0.93–1.03), and equity remains solid relative to total assets. The key weakness is returns: shareholder returns have turned negative in the most recent periods as losses emerged, which can become a balance-sheet risk if profitability doesn’t recover.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains a relative bright spot. Despite net losses in 2025 annual and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), the company is still producing positive operating cash flow and free cash flow, with TTM free cash flow higher than the prior annual period. That said, cash flow as a share of debt is modest in the latest period versus stronger coverage in earlier years, suggesting less cushion if operating conditions remain pressured.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.20B	1.28B	1.33B	1.36B	1.13B
Gross Profit	417.64M	452.10M	456.18M	481.84M	395.19M
EBITDA	82.38M	144.09M	156.79M	183.09M	149.73M
Net Income	-5.18M	37.57M	39.05M	61.57M	34.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.64B	1.69B	1.78B	1.87B	1.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	20.76M	6.56M	4.88M	7.95M	29.96M
Total Debt	529.36M	611.01M	668.89M	803.36M	802.76M
Total Liabilities	1.02B	1.04B	1.08B	1.09B	1.06B
Stockholders Equity	620.76M	656.77M	694.92M	782.91M	749.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	105.55M	99.72M	176.03M	145.93M	133.18M
Operating Cash Flow	131.91M	125.20M	215.02M	173.76M	184.91M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.23M	-1.96M	26.55M	-109.80M	-66.26M
Financing Cash Flow	-116.48M	-121.56M	-244.63M	-85.97M	-434.16M

Monro Muffler Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 17.86
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNRO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.19, below the 50-day MA of 20.02, and above the 200-day MA of 16.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MNRO.

Monro Muffler Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SMP	74 Outperform	$958.94M	13.82	10.49%	3.32%	23.96%	11.01%
DORM	73 Outperform	$3.92B	15.95	18.19%	―	7.94%	34.84%
LKQ	68 Neutral	$8.80B	12.25	10.87%	4.00%	-3.71%	-0.27%
HLLY	64 Neutral	$501.32M	-19.74	-5.54%	―	-3.20%	-257.73%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
MPAA	59 Neutral	$256.99M	112.31	0.94%	―	6.72%	―
MNRO	56 Neutral	$591.99M	-40.47	-3.04%	5.50%	-2.58%	-179.55%

Monro Muffler Corporate Events

Monro Muffler Appoints Peter Fitzsimmons as CEO

On December 2, 2025, Monro, Inc. formalized an employment agreement with Peter Fitzsimmons, appointing him as the full-time President and CEO, and adding him to the Board of Directors. This move is part of Monro’s strategy to enhance operations and drive profitability, with Fitzsimmons having previously contributed to the company’s performance improvement plan. The agreement includes a comprehensive compensation package and aims to secure Fitzsimmons’s leadership until at least December 31, 2027, as the company continues to focus on growth and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNRO) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monro Muffler stock, see the MNRO Stock Forecast page.

Monro Muffler Declares Quarterly Dividend for Q3

On November 18, 2025, Monro, Inc.’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.28 per share for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending December 27, 2025. The dividend will be paid on December 16, 2025, to shareholders of record as of December 2, 2025, including those holding Class C Convertible Preferred Stock.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNRO) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monro Muffler stock, see the MNRO Stock Forecast page.

Monro Muffler Extends Consulting Agreement with AlixPartners

On November 10, 2025, Monro, Inc. extended its consulting agreement with AlixPartners, LLP to December 27, 2025, as part of its ongoing operational improvement plan. The extension involves a fee of $2.2 million for services such as embedding capabilities and supporting revenue acceleration, with the company’s CEO, Peter Fitzsimmons, also serving as a partner at AlixPartners.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNRO) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monro Muffler stock, see the MNRO Stock Forecast page.

Monro Muffler Implements Shareholder Rights Plan

On November 10, 2025, Monro, Inc. announced the approval of a limited-duration shareholder rights plan by its Board of Directors, set to expire on November 6, 2026. This plan was implemented in response to Icahn Enterprises L.P.’s significant ownership accumulation of nearly 17% of the company, aiming to protect the long-term interests of Monro and its shareholders by preventing any entity from gaining control without proper compensation. The plan encourages potential acquirers to negotiate directly with the Board, ensuring informed decisions are made regarding any attempts to control or influence the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNRO) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monro Muffler stock, see the MNRO Stock Forecast page.